Northern Arizona at Arizona State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Northern Arizona logo Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (10:00 PM EDT)
Arizona State -29.5 (52.5) (0)  Open: -28.5 | 52.5
Arizona State 38 - Northern Arizona: 19

 
Lumberjacks (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 19 - 38 (19 - 38 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 101.3° (17% Hum)
Our Line: Arizona State -10.5  (SP+ ASU -5)
ASU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 51%
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
 
Northern Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Northern Arizona at Arizona State+29.552.5L 19 - 38OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Arizona's Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAU0%190%000%000%380%0%0000
ASU#87 (.14)40% (101)25.843% (71)2.98 (61)17438% (108)1953.32 (109)#32 (.09)40% (48)24.540% (50)39% (45)3.32 (38)55.21.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAU Offense119190%00000000%0%0%0%0%
ASU Defense1324.521.439.8%3.321.1 - - - - - 46%53%40%39%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAU Defense138380%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
ASU Offense1325.824.739.9%3.321.419369174195551%47%43%38%17%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Arizona10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Arizona State1329:3019.433%63%6.955.21.41.16.22.5027.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAU Offense10%0%000000%0%0
ASU Defense1346% (24)40% (50) - - - - .01 (18)2.68 (27)71% (64)11% (26)0.9 (40)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAU Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
ASU Offense1351% (53)43% (71)35.2174.2516 (78).13 (63)2.98 (61)66% (104)10% (82)0.97 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAU Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
ASU Defense1353% (119)39% (45) - - - - - - 7 (55).17 (35)1.5 (47)33% (45)29% (65).22 (36)8% (13)2 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAU Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
ASU Offense1347% (88)38% (108)17.230.2194.86.511.317 (86)8 (20).23 (76)1.6 (43)32% (85)27% (98).26 (87)8% (119)1.9 (90)

Northern Arizona's Power Ratings
Northern Arizona's Power Rating: NR
Northern Arizona's Offense Rating: NR
Northern Arizona's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northern Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: -
Northern Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Northern Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Northern Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Arizona:    Arizona State: 10.62

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Arizona:    Arizona State: 4.8




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 10.62  #38
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 6.90  #79
Arizona State's Defense Rating: -4.54  #17
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #71
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #36

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Northern Arizona Scoring
Offense: 19 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Northern Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona State 31
Northern Arizona 20

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona State 31
Northern Arizona 14

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Arizona State 32
Northern Arizona 21

Total Points: 53
Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Arizona State38Northern Arizona19Arizona State -29.5Northern Arizona52.5Over
202209/01Arizona State40Northern Arizona3Arizona State -25.5Arizona State52.5Under
201609/03Arizona State44Northern Arizona13Arizona State -26Arizona State0
201208/30Arizona State63Northern Arizona6
201009/11Arizona State41Northern Arizona20
200808/30Arizona State30Northern Arizona13
200608/31Arizona State35Northern Arizona14
200309/06Arizona State34Northern Arizona14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State821 Overs
Northern Arizona011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 02 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 81 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#NR) NAU at (#38) ASU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAUASU
Power RatePwrNR #38
SP+SP+NR #53
Perf GradeGradeNR #89
OffenseOffNR #93
DefenseDefNR #63
Spec TeamsSTNR #113
TalentTalNR #27
Blue ChipsBC%NR #49
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
Northern Arizona on Offense
CategoryCat
NAU OffASU Def
Perf GradePerfNR #63
SuccessSucNR #48
ExplosiveExpNR #52
PPAPPANR #32
PowerPwrNR #17
SP+SP+NR #36
Pts POPPONR #38
HavocHavNR #14
Northern Arizona Run Game
CategoryCat
NAU OffASU Def
Run GameRunNR #47
Run SuccessRSucNR #50
Run ExplRExpNR #40
PPAExpNR #18
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #27
Stuff RateStuffNR #35
TackleTak -  #42
Northern Arizona Pass Game
CategoryCat
NAU OffASU Def
Pass GamePassNR #47
Pass SuccessPSucNR #45
Pass ExplPExlNR #47
PPAExpNR #35
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #117
F7 HavocF7NR #26
DB HavocDBNR #13
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffNAU Def
Perf GradePerf #93NR
SuccessSuc #101NR
ExplosiveExp #66NR
PPAPPA #87NR
PowerPwr #79NR
SP+SP+ #71NR
Pts POPPO #109NR
HavocHav #107NR
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffNAU Def
Run GameRun #33NR
Run SuccessRSuc #71NR
Run ExplRExp #66NR
PPAExp #63NR
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #61NR
Stuff RateStuff #83NR
TackleTak - NR
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatASU OffNAU Def
Pass GamePass #96NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #108NR
Pass ExplPExl #43NR
PPAExp #76NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27NR
F7 HavocF7 #82NR
DB HavocDB #119NR
Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NAU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 101° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Arizona State -29.5 (52.5)
Arizona State won vs Northern Arizona this year (38-19)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Northern Arizona in 2022 (40-3)

  
NAU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ty Pennington23035066%27051647.7
Lathan Boone61060%49014.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth Cromwell13855974.125
Quran Gossett6934074.929
Darvon Hubbard4520634.628
Ty Pennington8019212.445
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kolbe Katsis54881816.375
Isaiah Eastman35444112.747
Jayson Raines (Tr)31399212.933
Jeter Purdy27368113.633

View Northern Arizona's Full Roster

NAU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ramere Davis91110
Quinlan Popham50001
Travis Arena41100
Michael Hurst42001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ramere Davis91110
Travis Arena41100
Jerry Johnson III10000
Quentin Moten10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylan Wesley30002
Michael Hurst42001
Canyon Moses20001

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims7815052%886755.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims9345234.988
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain22378017.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio21303214.468

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Jordan Crook928212
Myles Rowser794013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly366622
Prince Dorbah188471
Clayton Smith197420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren352017