Arkansas at Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas logo Arkansas Razorbacks at Tennessee Volunteers(#12)Tennessee logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (4:15 PM EDT)
Tennessee -10 (68.5) (-425)  Open: -13.5
Tennessee 34 - Arkansas: 31  (SEC)

 
Razorbacks (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Bobby Petrino (Int) (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
ARK coming off BYE
TENN coming off BYE
Our Line: Tennessee -13  (SP+ TENN -10)

Projected Score: ARK: 29 - TENN: 42 (71)
TENN Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
ARK Travel: 573 miles, 1 hrs behind
Volunteers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (42 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-45.562.5W 52 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23.562.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+3.560.5L 35 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-7.059.5L 31 - 32ON
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+5.564.5L 13 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+10.068.5L 31 - 34UY
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+7.557.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn-2.555.5L 24 - 33ON
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-5.566.5L 35 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+4.058.5L 22 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+10.557.5L 37 - 52ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+4.554.5L 17 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-7.563.5W 41 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.068.5W 34 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+8.560.5L 20 - 37UN
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-7.555.5W 56 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-3.055.5L 27 - 33ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-41.559.5W 42 - 9UN
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-3.557.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-2.066.5L 24 - 45ON
Tue 12/30 Tennessee vs Illinois-3.062.5L 28 - 30UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#14 (.31)49% (12)32.954% (1)3.43 (6)19245% (37)2634.2 (31)#127 (.27)47% (127)33.850% (132)46% (118)4.21 (119)671.70.8
TENN#7 (.34)51% (6)39.852% (4)3.04 (52)16450% (9)2844.66 (11)#68 (.16)44% (97)28.846% (111)41% (67)4.16 (115)51.31.11.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)52% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)39% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Offense1232.931.248.7%4.21.7234551922635.748%51%54%45%17%.31
TENN Defense1328.82943.7%4.161.5 - - - - - 50%49%46%41%19%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Defense1233.836.447.3%4.210.8 - - - - - 54%44%50%46%15%.27
TENN Offense1339.842.351%4.661.1244481642844.749%49%52%50%12%.34

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas1229:0123.347%53%7.8671.70.85.41.8227.4
Tennessee1325:3023.850%73%5.851.31.11.56.22.6328.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Offense1248% (80)54% (1)33.6192.25.725 (30).3 (5)3.43 (6)65% (109)10% (77)1.08 (25)
TENN Defense1350% (71)46% (111) - - - - .09 (65)2.81 (56)81% (123)12% (12)0.85 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Defense1254% (118)50% (132) - - - - .21 (125)3.05 (100)71% (66)9% (89)0.95 (61)
TENN Offense1349% (71)52% (4)34.9164.14.732 (16).26 (10)3.04 (52)84% (3)7% (18)0.95 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Offense1251% (54)45% (37)19.331.8262.98.313.722 (8)11 (60).37 (30)1.7 (21)31% (59)40% (4).58 (5)7% (114)2.3 (4)
TENN Defense1349% (80)41% (67) - - - - - - 10 (75).23 (59)1.6 (67)31% (70)27% (29).26 (58)7% (46)2.2 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Defense1244% (15)46% (118) - - - - - - 6 (75).44 (132)1.7 (122)31% (84)36% (131).44 (127)6% (54)2.1 (106)
TENN Offense1349% (67)50% (9)21.432.2283.58.813.326 (14)10 (88).43 (18)1.6 (57)26% (15)35% (22).48 (15)5% (33)2.2 (11)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 10.26  #41
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 22.68  #13
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 12.42  #98
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9  #52
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #99

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 10.26   Tennessee: 20.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 4.9   Tennessee: 15.2




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 20.64  #15
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 27.97  #5
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 6.89  #59
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53  #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.2  #21
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #5
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #61

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.4

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 42
Arkansas 29


Total Points: 71

Based on Last 4 Games
Tennessee 45
Arkansas 31

Total Points: 77

Based on Entire Season
Tennessee 38
Arkansas 31

Total Points: 69
Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Tennessee34Arkansas31Tennessee -10Arkansas68.5Under
202410/05Arkansas19Tennessee14Tennessee -14Arkansas57.5Under
202011/07Arkansas24Tennessee13Tennessee -2.5Arkansas54.0Under
201510/03Tennessee20Arkansas24Tennessee -7.5Arkansas53.5Under
201111/12Arkansas49Tennessee7
200711/10Tennessee34Arkansas13
200611/11Arkansas31Tennessee14
200210/05Tennessee41Arkansas38
200109/08Arkansas3Tennessee13
200011/10Tennessee63Arkansas20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee500 Overs
Arkansas544 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 22 - 20 - 22 - 0
Road Teams2 - 82 - 20 - 22 - 0

(#41) ARK at (#15) TENN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARKTENN
Power RatePwr #41 #15
SP+SP+ #52 #21
Perf GradeGrade #79 #17
OffenseOff #45 #17
DefenseDef #116 #35
Spec TeamsST #99 #53
TalentTal #48 #20
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #10
Arkansas Notes
(11/30) Hired Ryan Silverfield (Memphis). Meh hire IMO
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off great
(10/18) Off great vs A&M, Def torched as usual. 9 flags hurt
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
Arkansas Injury Report
Tennessee Notes
(12/30) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (27-57)
(12/10) Hiring DC Jim Knowles (PSU/OSU). Good hire?
(12/8) Fired DC Tim Banks after 3 years, Def awful in '25
(11/30) Outrushed by Vandy 314-83. Vols Def fell off a cliff
(11/30) Zero wins vs teams w/ a winning record in '25
(11/16) CB Boo Carter no longer with team. Again.
(10/30) Vols have beaten 3 SEC teams all w/ 0 wins
(10/20) Mistakes killed vs Bama, 10 flags, pick six, safety
(10/20) OG'd Bama, Rush Off good, tackling was nightmare
(9/15) Great perf vs UGA, brutal loss. Off brilliant
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
Tennessee Injury Report
Arkansas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffTENN Def
Perf GradePerf #45 #35
SuccessSuc #12 #97
ExplosiveExp #15 #25
PPAPPA #14 #68
PowerPwr #13 #59
SP+SP+ #16 #61
Pts POPPO #31 #115
HavocHav #101 #18
Arkansas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #2 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #111
Run ExplRExp #25 #16
PPAExp #5 #65
Run BlockR Blk #81 -
OL YdsOLY #6 #56
Stuff RateStuff #94 #39
TackleTak -  #63
Arkansas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #63 #46
Pass SuccessPSuc #37 #67
Pass ExplPExl #21 #67
PPAExp #30 #59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #72 #24
F7 HavocF7 #77 #12
DB HavocDB #114 #46
Tennessee on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTENN OffARK Def
Perf GradePerf #17 #116
SuccessSuc #6 #127
ExplosiveExp #52 #77
PPAPPA #7 #127
PowerPwr #5 #98
SP+SP+ #5 #99
Pts POPPO #11 #119
HavocHav #17 #73
Tennessee Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffARK Def
Run GameRun #12 #81
Run SuccessRSuc #4 #132
Run ExplRExp #74 #61
PPAExp #10 #125
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLY #52 #100
Stuff RateStuff #15 #63
TackleTak -  #22
Tennessee Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTENN OffARK Def
Pass GamePass #3 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #118
Pass ExplPExl #57 #122
PPAExp #18 #132
Pass Block/RushP Blk #34 #77
F7 HavocF7 #18 #89
DB HavocDB #33 #54
Program Comparison
TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 73°
Rematch from Week 7
Tennessee -10.0 (68.5)
Tennessee won vs Arkansas this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Tennessee last year (19-14)

  
ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green19832661%271419118.3
KJ Jackson335461%441308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington168106886.457
Taylen Green13877985.664
Braylen Russell5528655.223
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)65409.041
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)57760513.336
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)41592314.458
Rohan Jones (Tr)19519427.362
CJ Brown28319311.426

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Chris Wilson (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Stephen Dix Jr.794100
Larry Worth641001
Caleb Wooden (Tr)593013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.4316860
Phillip Lee (Tr)316440
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Bradley Shaw505211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kani Walker (Tr)5231011
Julian Neal (Tr)5520010
Jordan Young (Tr)280016

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)25838667%344424108.9
Jake Merklinger132454%173207.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop163983146.050
Star Thomas (Tr)9552975.652
Peyton Lewis7029074.132
Daune Morris3513313.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II621017916.472
Braylon Staley64806612.673
Mike Matthews50770415.462
Ethan Davis21257212.240

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter756221
Edwin Spillman744332
Jeremiah Telander716120
Edrees Farooq710002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey257530
Tyre West227411
Caleb Herring156452
Daevin Hobbs283322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Redmond391009
Colton Hood (Tr)505008
Jalen Mcmurray546223