Arkansas at Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas logo Arkansas Razorbacks at Tennessee Volunteers(#15)Tennessee logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Neyland Stadium - Knoxville, TN  (SEC)

 
Razorbacks (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 48 - 21 (35 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
ARK coming off BYE
TENN coming off BYE
Our Line: Tennessee -9   (SP+ TENN -8)

Projected Score: ARK: 35 - TENN: 44 (78)
TENN Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
ARK Travel: 573 miles, 1 hrs behind
Volunteers (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 53 - 29 (57 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#37)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-45.562.5W 52 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23.562.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+3.560.5L 35 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-7.063.5
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+0
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+9
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+4.5
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn+6
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+10
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+11
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+6

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-9
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+9
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-11
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-39.5
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-2.5
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-7

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#5 (.55)56% (12)47.758% (12)3.98 (3)24556% (13)3245.55 (11)#108 (.22)49% (122)20.757% (133)42% (82)3.93 (86)5411.3
TENN#17 (.43)53% (22)52.751% (35)3.07 (61)21654% (21)3595.22 (26)#73 (.14)43% (89)2947% (102)39% (62)5.13 (124)6411.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)52% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)39% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Offense347.73556.5%5.551295692453246.947%52%58%56%11%.55
TENN Defense32930.542.6%5.131.3 - - - - - 51%49%47%39%17%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Defense320.74148.7%3.931.3 - - - - - 46%54%57%42%19%.22
TENN Offense352.756.552.6%5.221295742163595.449%51%51%54%8%.43

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas329:572972%0%65411.36.72.3027.1
Tennessee327:2028.758%0%7.76411.364030
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Offense347% (89)58% (12)35.3245.36.98 (26).51 (3)3.98 (3)100% (1)5% (10)1.24 (24)
TENN Defense351% (84)47% (102) - - - - .06 (67)2.69 (58)79% (106)10% (76)0.64 (7)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Defense346% (40)57% (133) - - - - .16 (104)2.78 (69)76% (96)11% (51)0.71 (18)
TENN Offense349% (76)51% (35)40215.75.48 (26).26 (38)3.07 (61)76% (51)4% (5)0.94 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Offense352% (49)56% (13)22.733.33249.714.312 (3)2 (60).63 (13)1.7 (30)28% (48)52% (2).84 (6)6% (96)2.2 (47)
TENN Defense349% (61)39% (62) - - - - - - 2 (56).23 (74)1.6 (80)28% (114)16% (17).17 (44)8% (30)3 (136)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Defense354% (99)42% (82) - - - - - - 2 (56).28 (91)1.6 (91)27% (123)37% (118).46 (109)8% (26)1.9 (62)
TENN Offense351% (58)54% (21)2638.7358.79.313.811 (5)2 (60).6 (15)1.6 (47)26% (27)33% (62).58 (28)4% (45)2.5 (15)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 18.05 #34
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 28.44 #9
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 10.39 #84
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #11
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 18.05   Tennessee: 25.19

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 13.9   Tennessee: 21.8




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 25.19 #20
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 27.17 #11
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.59 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53 #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #6
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #12
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 47.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 41

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 44
Arkansas 35


Total Points: 78

Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 52.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 56.5
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.5

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Arkansas19Tennessee14ArkansasTennessee -14Arkansas57.5Under
202011/07Arkansas24Tennessee13ArkansasTennessee -2.5Arkansas54.0Under
201510/03Tennessee20Arkansas24ArkansasTennessee -7.5Arkansas53.5Under
201111/12Arkansas49Tennessee7Arkansas
200711/10Tennessee34Arkansas13Tennessee
200611/11Arkansas31Tennessee14Arkansas
200210/05Tennessee41Arkansas38Tennessee
200109/08Arkansas3Tennessee13Tennessee
200011/10Tennessee63Arkansas20Tennessee
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee400 Overs
Arkansas533 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 22 - 10 - 12 - 0
Road Teams2 - 71 - 20 - 21 - 0

(#34) Arkansas Info
Power Rating: 18.05 #34
Offense Rating: 28.44 #9
Defense Rating: 10.39 #84
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Great Offense Success Rate of 56%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.55 PPO
Great Run Success 58%
Great Pass Success 56%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 57%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Arkansas has lost 3 straight
Arkansas has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Arkansas Notes
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
(5/23) Hogs getting picked clean by portal, NIL bad
(5/23) OL returns 3/5. 5 portals. Best left via portal
(5/18) WR J Anthony a track star, hasn't played much
(5/15) WR top 5 are portals, 7 total. Blake (Char) good
(5/12) WR core bolted due to T Green? DBs a big issue
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp, 63% returning, 37% portals
(3/18) QB Green back, electric but inconsistent LY
(3/18) RBs rebuild. Good Run game LY needs RB1
(3/18) Def lacked ballers, pressure, TO's

Arkansas Highlights
Arkansas has Really Good Running Game (#8)
Arkansas offense is efficent (#12)
Arkansas offense is explosive (#15)
Arkansas has a top Offensive Line (#3)
Arkansas offense is good in red zone (#11)
Arkansas offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#7)

Arkansas Secondary is very good (#26)

Arkansas Deficiencies
Arkansas has a bad defense (#122)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTENNARK
OverallOver#13#17
OffenseOff#13#15
DefenseDef#40#39
Special TeamsST#52#34
PassingPass#7#20
RushingRush#10#6
Run BlockRBLK#64#52
Pass BlockPBLK#35#14
Route RunningWR Rt#10#38
TacklingTkl#35#16
Run DefenseR Def#55#61
Pass Rush DefPRush#7#16
Coverage DefCov#67#36

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Tennessee last year (19-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARK | TENN
Depth Chart: ARK | TENN
Rosters: ARK | TENN
(#20) Tennessee Info
Power Rating: 25.19 #20
Offense Rating: 27.17 #11
Defense Rating: 3.59 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #6
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #12
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #10
Talent Rating: 910.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53 #10
Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.22 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Great Pass Success 54%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.13 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Tennessee has lost 3 straight
Tennessee has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Tennessee Notes
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
(9/1) Starting CB R Gibson out until Oct (arm inj)
(8/30) 500+ yds vs Cuse, Aguilar good on deep shots
(8/17) QB1 Aguliar (App St) wins battle for starter
(7/25) TE Kitselman a top TE, but injured in spring
(7/25) CB duo McCoy/Gibson great, is McCoy healthy?
(5/11) OL exp bottom 20 & 53% comes from portals
(5/6) OT Heard was last in SEC in PFF grading
(5/4) Basically traded Nico for Joey Aguliar (App St QB)

Tennessee Highlights
Tennessee is Undefeated vs Spread
Tennessee is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Tennessee is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Tennessee has Really Good Running Game (#21)
Tennessee offense is efficent (#22)
Tennessee offense is good in red zone (#26)
Tennessee offense is good on 3rd downs
Tennessee Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Tennessee defense does not give up big plays (#18)
Tennessee Secondary is very good (#30)

Tennessee Deficiencies
Tennessee Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Tennessee Does Not Stuff Runs (#111)
Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#124)


  
Arkansas's OC Bobby Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green639269%8661129.4
KJ Jackson5771%1061015.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Taylen Green3230729.664
Michael Washington3126038.453
Braylen Russell2510324.18
Rodney Hill73705.318
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)18266314.830
Jalen Brown (Tr)10114211.429
CJ Brown9111212.326
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)7107215.337

View Arkansas's Full Roster
Arkansas's DC Travis Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.232120
Stephen Dix Jr.231000
Julian Neal (Tr)211004
Caleb Wooden (Tr)142000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.93330
Phillip Lee (Tr)123240
Miguel Mitchell111100
Shakur Smalls (Tr)51101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Julian Neal (Tr)211004
Kani Walker (Tr)131004
Keshawn Davila00001

Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)639566%906929.5
Jake Merklinger91464%118208.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)3322136.727
DeSean Bishop2920417.050
Peyton Lewis217623.68
Daune Morris115014.510
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II20364518.272
Braylon Staley18231212.873
Mike Matthews13199115.353
Miles Kitselman87919.918

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter262100
Jalen Mcmurray171101
Andre Turrentine150000
Edrees Farooq140002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Josephs123201
Caleb Herring54210
Tyre West101110
Charles House III22100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Hood (Tr)110005
Ty Redmond90003
Edrees Farooq140002