New Mexico State at Tennessee Game Matchup
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Tennessee VolunteersTennessee logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Neyland Stadium - Knoxville, TN

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#105)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
TENN coming off BYE
NMSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Tennessee -38.5   (SP+ TENN -34)

Projected Score: NMSU: 7 - TENN: 46 (55)
TENN Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
NMSU Travel: 1326 miles, 2 hrs behind
Volunteers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (43 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#21)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 New Mexico State vs Bryant-5
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa-1.5
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+5
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+21.5
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State-2
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+9.5
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State-4.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+38.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+7.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Tennessee vs Syracuse-12.555.5
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-41
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+7.5
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-34
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-13.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.5
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+15
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-9.5
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-38.5
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida+5
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-14.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)35.748% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)16.136% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.612.639.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08
TENN Defense1316.19.937.6%3.031.6 - - - - - 48%51%36%39%21%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1236.338.441.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
TENN Offense1335.743.447.4%4.021.2234482272215.157%43%48%47%12%.23

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Tennessee1329:3523.347%61%8.166.81.21.67.22.2231.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)
TENN Defense1348% (42)36% (9) - - - - .01 (17)2.61 (17)62% (15)14% (5)0.98 (65)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
TENN Offense1357% (23)48% (23)44.7226.85.134 (10).18 (39)3.4 (13)86% (2)8% (33)0.87 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)
TENN Defense1351% (87)39% (48) - - - - - - 12 (39).16 (32)1.5 (38)33% (46)31% (74).33 (80)7% (39)2 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
TENN Offense1343% (111)47% (19)18.228.7221.27.712.221 (51)7 (26).29 (51)1.5 (113)29% (25)34% (41).38 (50)4% (13)1.9 (114)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -21.48 #130
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -21.48   Tennessee: 19.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -16.0   Tennessee: 18.4




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 19.79 #18
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 17.75 #45
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 1.57 #13
2025 Talent Rating: 920.00 #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #16
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.4 #13
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #34
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.0 #7

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 46
New Mexico State 7


Projected Total Points: 55
Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.4
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.9

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee000 Overs
New Mexico State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#130) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -21.48 #130
Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124
Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


New Mexico State Notes
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) QB Fife (Mont), Awad started late LY
(3/26) RB McGowan good, 2 P4 portals added
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) Def bad LY, returns some. 6 portal DL adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother
New Mexico State     Ratings Matchup     Tennessee
Power #130
#18
Off #124
#45
Def #119
#13
Talent #131
#18
SP+ #122
#13
SP+ Off #106
#34
SP+ Def #124
#7

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | TENN
Depth Chart: NMSU | TENN
Rosters: NMSU | TENN
(#18) Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 19.79 #18
Offense Rating: 17.75 #45
Defense Rating: 1.57 #13
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.4 #13
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.0 #7
Talent Rating: 920.00 #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #16
Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Good Run Success 48%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.03 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Tennessee Notes
(5/11) OL exp bottom 20 & 53% comes from portals
(5/6) OT Heard was last in SEC in PFF grading
(5/4) Basically traded Nico for Joey Aguliar (App St QB)
(4/12) QB1 Merklinger (So)? Only 2 on roster, big need
(4/4) CB Jermod McCoy the #2 CB via PFF
(4/4) DE Joshua Josephs just outside top 10 via PFF
(3/22) TE Kitselman a top TE w/ great hands
(3/22) Def v good, returns a lot. DE Josephs v good
(3/20) WR rebuild. Brazzell/Matthews/talent ready?
(3/18) RB rebuild. Thomas (Duke) can help. Talented


  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)15724664%17811327.2
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)2612414.860
Logan Fife (Tr)5212052.322
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Parker Awad6010911.825
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Tyler King (Tr)17236013.936
Gavin Harris (Tr)11173115.760

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Sone Aupiu554025
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Nicolas Sessions301003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Gabe Peterson (Tr)61100
Larry Jones III (Tr)51120
Glynn Johnson Jr20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Sone Aupiu554025
Nicolas Sessions301003

Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)21839056%300223147.7
Jake Merklinger6967%48005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)21387174.144
DeSean Bishop7445536.153
Peyton Lewis6433935.335
Joey Aguilar (Tr)5821723.749
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II29333211.553
Miles Kitselman22301413.731
Star Thomas (Tr)2015317.729
Ethan Davis1310027.718

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter687036
Jermod McCoy441007
Jeremiah Telander434111
Joshua Josephs399283
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey254250
Jaxson Moi165201
Tyre West165220
Joshua Josephs399283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermod McCoy441007
Arion Carter687036
Colton Hood (Tr)231006