New Mexico State at Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers(#23)Tennessee logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (4:15 PM EST)
Neyland Stadium - Knoxville, TN

 
Aggies (3 - 5) (3 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 21 - 25 (19 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
TENN coming off BYE
NMSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Tennessee -33  (SP+ TENN -31)

Projected Score: NMSU: 14 - TENN: 47 (61)
TENN Win prob: 99% | Cover: 52%
NMSU Travel: 1326 miles, 2 hrs behind
Volunteers (6 - 3) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 44 - 31 (46 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+9.553.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+33
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+7
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-8.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 2

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-7.563.5W 41 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.068.5W 34 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+8.560.5L 20 - 37UN
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-7.555.5W 56 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-3.055.5L 27 - 33ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-33
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-1.5
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt+0

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#128 (.04)36% (126)21.431% (136)2.13 (127)6939% (97)2333.06 (123)#25 (.06)41% (74)25.437% (23)47% (121)3 (17)62.31.82.1
TENN#9 (.33)50% (10)43.650% (11)2.69 (88)17950% (13)3294.64 (19)#39 (.1)44% (99)31.146% (107)41% (74)4.43 (120)58.61.31.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense821.419.335.8%3.061.818302692332.540%58%31%39%21%.04
TENN Defense931.129.843.7%4.431.8 - - - - - 52%48%46%41%19%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense825.43841.5%32.1 - - - - - 49%49%37%47%16%.06
TENN Offense943.64650.1%4.641.3275081793294.848%51%50%50%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State828:3417.940%38%6.862.31.82.15.81.9130.5
Tennessee927:2326.648%80%758.61.31.87.13.1228.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense840% (130)31% (136)2868.62.55 (132)-.11 (136)2.13 (127)77% (37)10% (100)0.94 (76)
TENN Defense952% (87)46% (107) - - - - .01 (24)2.61 (55)83% (128)13% (15)0.74 (3)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense849% (51)37% (23) - - - - -.1 (9)2.81 (78)74% (86)9% (76)0.89 (38)
TENN Offense948% (89)50% (11)37178.74.823 (16).22 (20)2.69 (88)78% (29)7% (12)0.94 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense858% (11)39% (97)19.335.5232.96.612.110 (86)9 (34).17 (100)1.5 (94)37% (133)26% (109).24 (95)11% (136)2 (51)
TENN Defense948% (52)41% (74) - - - - - - 6 (75).21 (60)1.5 (58)32% (74)26% (27).24 (57)6% (73)2.2 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense849% (71)47% (121) - - - - - - 10 (31).25 (79)1.4 (18)32% (72)25% (18).12 (13)7% (37)2.2 (118)
TENN Offense951% (48)50% (13)23.736.2329.39.113.923 (14)8 (88).41 (21)1.6 (51)27% (18)34% (40).5 (19)6% (57)2.3 (7)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -8.68  #107
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #110
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 11.28  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.0  #121
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #124
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #107

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -8.68   Tennessee: 20.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.0   Tennessee: 15.9




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 20.95  #17
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 26.73  #9
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 5.73  #58
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53  #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9  #20
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #5
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #57

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.3
Defense: 25.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 47
New Mexico State 14


Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Tennessee 31
New Mexico State 28

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Tennessee 39
New Mexico State 25

Total Points: 64
Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 43.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 46
Defense: 31.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.8

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee000 Overs
New Mexico State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#107) NMSU at (#17) TENN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSUTENN
Power RatePwr #107 #17
SP+SP+ #121 #20
Perf GradeGrade #114 #21
OffenseOff #127 #16
DefenseDef #65 #41
Spec TeamsST #17 #53
TalentTal #132 #20
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #10
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
Tennessee Notes
(10/30) Vols have beaten 3 SEC teams all w/ 0 wins
(10/20) Mistakes killed vs Bama, 10 flags, pick six, safety
(10/20) OG'd Bama, Rush Off good, tackling was nightmare
(9/15) Great perf vs UGA, brutal loss. Off brilliant
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
(9/1) Starting CB R Gibson out until Oct (arm inj)
(8/30) 500+ yds vs Cuse, Aguilar good on deep shots
(8/17) QB1 Aguliar (App St) wins battle for starter
(7/25) TE Kitselman a top TE, but injured in spring
(7/25) CB duo McCoy/Gibson great, is McCoy healthy?
(5/11) OL exp bottom 20 & 53% comes from portals
Tennessee Injury Report
New Mexico State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTENN Def
Perf GradePerf #127 #41
SuccessSuc #126 #99
ExplosiveExp #44 #6
PPAPPA #128 #39
PowerPwr #110 #58
SP+SP+ #124 #57
Pts POPPO #123 #120
HavocHav #133 #25
New Mexico State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #134 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #136 #107
Run ExplRExp #76 #3
PPAExp #136 #24
Run BlockR Blk #108 -
OL YdsOLY #127 #55
Stuff RateStuff #133 #47
TackleTak -  #50
New Mexico State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #99 #64
Pass SuccessPSuc #97 #74
Pass ExplPExl #94 #58
PPAExp #100 #60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #130 #23
F7 HavocF7 #100 #15
DB HavocDB #136 #73
Tennessee on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTENN OffNMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #16 #65
SuccessSuc #10 #74
ExplosiveExp #42 #33
PPAPPA #9 #25
PowerPwr #9 #88
SP+SP+ #5 #107
Pts POPPO #19 #17
HavocHav #25 #65
Tennessee Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #10 #81
Run SuccessRSuc #11 #23
Run ExplRExp #74 #38
PPAExp #20 #9
Run BlockR Blk #94 -
OL YdsOLY #88 #78
Stuff RateStuff #27 #40
TackleTak -  #53
Tennessee Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTENN OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #3 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #13 #121
Pass ExplPExl #51 #18
PPAExp #21 #79
Pass Block/RushP Blk #16 #67
F7 HavocF7 #12 #76
DB HavocDB #57 #37
Program Comparison
TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)15228154%1825996.5
Glynn Johnson Jr11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)8029833.729
Dijon Stanley (Tr)379602.613
Isaiah Rudison258413.411
Logan Fife (Tr)654310.724
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel39476312.255
Gavin Harris (Tr)27381114.134
Tyler King (Tr)15235015.754
Glynn Johnson Jr16227314.240

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell631003
Tory Gethers605302
Nicolas Sessions472002
Jamall Thompson447320
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)318562
Jamall Thompson447320
Tory Gethers605302
Cole Schnettgoecke152221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown113005
Sone Aupiu415103
Josiah Charles240003

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)19529766%27372189.2
Jake Merklinger122255%175208.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop10369096.750
Star Thomas (Tr)8042855.427
Peyton Lewis6024864.132
Daune Morris188814.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II49808816.572
Braylon Staley52703513.573
Mike Matthews38638416.862
Miles Kitselman25250210.023

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter623101
Edwin Spillman583232
Edrees Farooq550002
Jeremiah Telander525120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyre West194410
Dominic Bailey185420
Caleb Herring125331
Jalen Mcmurray435213
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Hood (Tr)384007
Ty Redmond311006
Jalen Mcmurray435213