Illinois at Purdue - 2025 Matchup Preview
Illinois logo (#22)Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue BoilermakersPurdue logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Illinois -7.5 (55.5) (-320)  Open: -7.5 | 54.5
Illinois 43 - Purdue: 27  (Big Ten)

 
Fighting Illini (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (27 - 22)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
PUR coming off BYE
ILL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -19.5  (SP+ ILL -18.5)

Projected Score: ILL: 38 - PUR: 18 (56)
ILL Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ILL Travel: 73 miles, 1 hrs behind
Boilermakers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Illinois vs Western Illinois-48.562.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Illinois at Duke-2.549.0W 45 - 19OY
Sat 9/13 Illinois vs Western Michigan-27.550.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 Illinois at Indiana+7.051.5L 10 - 63ON
Sat 9/27 Illinois vs USC+6.562.5W 34 - 32OY
Sat 10/4 Illinois at Purdue-7.555.5W 43 - 27OY
Sat 10/11 Illinois vs Ohio State+15.551.5L 16 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Illinois at Washington+3.554.5L 25 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Illinois vs Rutgers-13.563.5W 35 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Illinois vs Maryland-15.551.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 11/22 Illinois at Wisconsin-8.542.5L 10 - 27UN
Sat 11/29 Illinois vs Northwestern-7.044.5W 20 - 13UN
Tue 12/30 Illinois vs Tennessee+3.062.5W 30 - 28UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Purdue vs Ball State-16.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Purdue vs Southern Illinois-19.552.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Purdue vs USC+20.559.5L 17 - 33UY
Sat 9/20 Purdue at Notre Dame+24.551.5L 30 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Purdue vs Illinois+7.555.5L 27 - 43ON
Sat 10/11 Purdue at Minnesota+7.549.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 10/18 Purdue at Northwestern+3.047.5L 0 - 19UN
Sat 10/25 Purdue vs Rutgers-2.560.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/1 Purdue at Michigan+21.048.5L 16 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Purdue vs Ohio State+29.549.5L 10 - 34UY
Sat 11/15 Purdue at Washington+14.551.5L 13 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Purdue vs Indiana+28.553.5L 3 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL#41 (.21)47% (19)29.447% (35)2.97 (66)12149% (13)2214.3 (27)#97 (.2)45% (114)23.639% (39)50% (134)4.27 (122)37.90.81.2
PUR#103 (.11)43% (62)18.843% (72)2.94 (69)12643% (53)2173.06 (120)#125 (.27)48% (131)31.849% (128)48% (128)4.03 (105)46.81.80.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Offense1329.426.647.4%4.30.8193421212213.850%48%47%49%15%.21
PUR Defense1231.83048.3%4.030.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%15%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Defense1323.635.645.1%4.271.2 - - - - - 43%55%39%50%15%.2
PUR Offense1218.820.942.8%3.061.819344126217447%52%43%43%16%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Illinois1328:0919.242%60%4.337.90.81.24.41.8130.6
Purdue1228:0119.338%60%4.846.81.80.85.32027.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Offense1350% (61)47% (35)32.2121.23.820 (40).05 (101)2.97 (66)71% (75)10% (94)0.8 (129)
PUR Defense1255% (125)49% (128) - - - - .18 (114)3.25 (122)78% (112)10% (68)0.86 (18)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Defense1343% (7)39% (39) - - - - .05 (40)2.78 (50)73% (87)9% (89)0.91 (43)
PUR Offense1247% (97)43% (72)31.3126.4411 (78).15 (53)2.94 (69)56% (136)10% (89)1.04 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Offense1348% (75)49% (13)17.826220.78.512.422 (33)6 (7).44 (15)1.6 (44)29% (35)37% (15).38 (40)5% (33)1.9 (102)
PUR Defense1243% (13)48% (128) - - - - - - 4 (123).4 (123)1.6 (101)28% (126)32% (98).26 (59)6% (76)1.9 (33)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Defense1355% (129)50% (134) - - - - - - 6 (123).33 (103)1.3 (5)28% (120)37% (132).39 (114)6% (49)2 (50)
PUR Offense1252% (37)43% (53)19.833.7217.26.51115 (86)13 (132).14 (117)1.4 (117)32% (87)36% (17).36 (50)6% (73)1.9 (97)

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 13.83  #34
Illinois's Offense Rating: 21.04  #17
Illinois's Defense Rating: 7.21  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 864.00  #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.9  #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #35
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #41

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 13.83   Purdue: -7.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 10.9   Purdue: -7.8




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -7.05  #114
Purdue's Offense Rating: 4.53  #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 15.83  #116
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.8  #96
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #105
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7  #94

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 38
Purdue 18


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Purdue 31
Illinois 26

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Illinois 30
Purdue 25

Total Points: 55
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Purdue27Illinois43Illinois -7.5Illinois55.5Over
202410/12Illinois50Purdue49Illinois -22.5Purdue47.5Over
202309/30Purdue44Illinois19Purdue -1.0Purdue54.0Over
202211/12Illinois24Purdue31Illinois -6.0Purdue44.0Over
202109/25Purdue13Illinois9Purdue -10.5Illinois53.5Under
202010/31Illinois24Purdue31Purdue -7.0NA0
201910/26Purdue6Illinois24Purdue -9Illinois54.5Under
201810/13Illinois7Purdue46Purdue -10.5Purdue62.0Under
201711/04Purdue29Illinois10Purdue -14Purdue50.0Under
201610/08Illinois31Purdue34Illinois -9Purdue49.5Over
201511/07Purdue14Illinois48Illinois -1.5Illinois50.0Over
201410/04Illinois27Purdue38Illinois -10.5Purdue0
201311/23Purdue16Illinois20Illinois -6.5Purdue0
201211/17Illinois17Purdue20
201110/22Purdue21Illinois14
201010/30Illinois44Purdue10
200910/24Purdue24Illinois14
200611/11Illinois31Purdue42
200511/12Purdue37Illinois3
200409/25Illinois30Purdue38
200310/04Purdue43Illinois10
200210/12Illinois38Purdue31
200111/03Purdue13Illinois38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue1586 Overs
Illinois844 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 133 - 92 - 61 - 3
Road Teams13 - 109 - 33 - 16 - 2

(#34) ILL at (#114) PUR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatILLPUR
Power RatePwr #34 #114
SP+SP+ #31 #96
Perf GradeGrade #27 #125
OffenseOff #18 #113
DefenseDef #63 #130
Spec TeamsST #69 #6
TalentTal #37 #65
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #88
Illinois Notes
(11/22) Finishes 2-3 on road after awful L @ Wisconsin
(10/10) 1st in P4 at +42 Pts off TOs w/ a TO margin +7
(9/20) Destroyed by IU, outrushed 267 to 2! Off awful
(8/15) OL banged up in fall camp, not major
(6/6) QB Altmyer 3rd yr w/ OC Lunney. Big goals TY
(6/6) RBs Laughery good, Feegan back from inj (hip)
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, Clement (WVU) + Bowick (BSU)
(6/6) OL has 4/5 back, 3 portals, should improve TY
(6/6) Def looks really deep, could be better unit
(6/6) Secondary one of best in B1G, Pass rush ?
(6/6) Def good LY, returns a lot. 7 portal DL added
(5/23) Illini were 5-1 in 1 score games LY
Illinois Injury Report
Purdue Notes
(12/18) DC Mike Scherer fired after one season
(11/28) Lost 10 straight to finish, only 3 one score games. Woof
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
Purdue Injury Report
Illinois on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ILL OffPUR Def
Perf GradePerf #18 #130
SuccessSuc #19 #131
ExplosiveExp #106 #49
PPAPPA #41 #125
PowerPwr #17 #116
SP+SP+ #35 #94
Pts POPPO #27 #105
HavocHav #65 #77
Illinois Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ILL OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #69 #129
Run SuccessRSuc #35 #128
Run ExplRExp #129 #18
PPAExp #101 #114
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #122
Stuff RateStuff #87 #81
TackleTak -  #125
Illinois Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ILL OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #37 #122
Pass SuccessPSuc #13 #128
Pass ExplPExl #44 #101
PPAExp #15 #123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #79 #116
F7 HavocF7 #94 #68
DB HavocDB #33 #76
Purdue on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatPUR OffILL Def
Perf GradePerf #113 #63
SuccessSuc #62 #114
ExplosiveExp #75 #34
PPAPPA #103 #97
PowerPwr #94 #64
SP+SP+ #105 #41
Pts POPPO #120 #122
HavocHav #79 #73
Purdue Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffILL Def
Run GameRun #97 #45
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #39
Run ExplRExp #41 #43
PPAExp #53 #40
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #50
Stuff RateStuff #76 #54
TackleTak -  #33
Purdue Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatPUR OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #77 #99
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #134
Pass ExplPExl #117 #5
PPAExp #117 #103
Pass Block/RushP Blk #116 #42
F7 HavocF7 #89 #89
DB HavocDB #73 #49
Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

ILL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 82° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Illinois 7.5 (55.5)
Illinois won at Purdue this year (43-27)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Purdue last year (50-49)
Purdue beat Illinois in 2023 (44-19)
Purdue beat Illinois in 2022 (31-24)

  
ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer22633268%28112158.5
Ethan Hampton (Tr)3475%27016.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ca'Lil Valentine12354944.525
Kaden Feagin11949974.226
Aidan Laughery6230534.957
Luke Altmyer9018842.136
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Hank Beatty64826312.962
Collin Dixon33538516.361
Hudson Clement (Tr)33406312.327
Justin Bowick (Tr)19234412.325

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey764012
Miles Scott594104
Dylan Rosiek494013
Torrie Cox Jr.461003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas44141161
Tomiwa Durojaiye (Tr)165231
Leon Lowery183230
James Thompson Jr. (Tr)333221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaheim Clarke291007
Miles Scott594104
James Kreutz273003

PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)19933859%21539106.4
Malachi Singleton (Tr)386459%439526.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee12552144.232
Antonio Harris6930524.441
Malachi Thomas (Tr)5324304.657
Ryan Browne (Tr)6620643.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)6357019.031
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)34505414.936
E.J. Horton (Tr)27289110.728
Corey Smith (Tr)14237116.960

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Myles Slusher632103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
C.J. Nunnally4211581
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Jamarrion Harkless132340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hudauri Hines322008
Smiley Bradford305026
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005