Tennessee at Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo   Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats  Kentucky logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (7:45 PM EDT)
Tennessee -7.5 (55.5) (-290)  Open: -9.5
Tennessee 56 - Kentucky: 34  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (37 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
TENN 2nd straight Road Game
UK 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Tennessee -7  (SP+ TENN -13)

Projected Score: TENN: 32 - UK: 25 (57)
TENN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TENN Travel: 146 miles
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-7.563.5W 41 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.068.5W 34 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+8.560.5L 20 - 37UN
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-7.555.5W 56 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-3.055.5L 27 - 33ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-41.559.5W 42 - 9UN
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-3.557.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-2.066.5L 24 - 45ON
Tue 12/30 Tennessee vs Illinois-3.062.5L 28 - 30UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)39.848% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)28.836% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)2347% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)26.449% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense1339.83747.4%4.021.2234482272215.157%43%48%47%12%.23
UK Defense1226.422.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense1328.82937.6%3.031.6 - - - - - 48%51%36%39%21%.07
UK Offense122331.741.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee1329:3523.347%61%8.166.81.21.67.22.2231.6
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense1357% (23)48% (23)44.7226.85.134 (10).18 (39)3.4 (13)86% (2)8% (33)0.87 (115)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense1348% (42)36% (9) - - - - .01 (17)2.61 (17)62% (15)14% (5)0.98 (65)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense1343% (111)47% (19)18.228.7221.27.712.221 (51)7 (26).29 (51)1.5 (113)29% (25)34% (41).38 (50)4% (13)1.9 (114)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense1351% (87)39% (48) - - - - - - 12 (39).16 (32)1.5 (38)33% (46)31% (74).33 (80)7% (39)2 (44)
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 13.66  #27
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 24.25  #15
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 10.59  #48
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.0  #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #7
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #63

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 13.66   Kentucky: 7.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 15.0   Kentucky: 1.8




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 7.415  #45
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.41  #42
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.38  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 32
Kentucky 25


Projected Total Points: 57
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Kentucky34Tennessee56Tennessee -7.5Tennessee55.5Over
202411/02Tennessee28Kentucky18Tennessee -17.5Kentucky45.5Over
202310/28Kentucky27Tennessee33Tennessee -4Tennessee50.5Over
202210/29Tennessee44Kentucky6Tennessee -10.5Tennessee62.5Under
202111/06Kentucky42Tennessee45Tennessee -1Tennessee57.5Over
202010/17Tennessee7Kentucky34Tennessee -6.0Kentucky45.5Under
201911/09Kentucky13Tennessee17Kentucky -2Tennessee42.0Under
201811/10Tennessee24Kentucky7Kentucky -5Tennessee43.0Under
201710/28Kentucky29Tennessee26Kentucky -4Tennessee46.0Over
201611/12Tennessee49Kentucky36Tennessee -10.5Tennessee58.0Over
201510/31Kentucky21Tennessee52Tennessee -7.5Tennessee60.5Over
201411/15Tennessee50Kentucky16Tennessee -6.5Tennessee0
201311/30Kentucky14Tennessee27Tennessee -4Tennessee0
201211/24Tennessee37Kentucky17
201111/26Kentucky10Tennessee7
201011/27Tennessee24Kentucky14
200911/28Kentucky24Tennessee30
200811/29Tennessee28Kentucky10
200711/24Kentucky50Tennessee52
200611/25Tennessee17Kentucky12
200511/26Kentucky8Tennessee27
200411/27Tennessee37Kentucky31
200311/29Kentucky7Tennessee20
200111/17Kentucky35Tennessee38
200011/17Tennessee59Kentucky20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky327 Overs
Tennessee22114 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 124 - 93 - 41 - 5
Road Teams12 - 139 - 45 - 14 - 3

(#27) TENN at (#45) UK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTENNUK
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #27 #45
SP+SP+ #19 #66
Perf GradeGrade #19 #75
OffenseOff #15 #89
DefenseDef #55 #42
Spec TeamsST #32 #112
TalentTal #20 #26
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #23
Tennessee Notes
(12/30) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (27-57)
(12/10) Hiring DC Jim Knowles (PSU/OSU). Good hire?
(12/8) Fired DC Tim Banks after 3 years, Def awful in '25
(11/30) Outrushed by Vandy 314-83. Vols Def fell off a cliff
(11/30) Zero wins vs teams w/ a winning record in '25
(11/16) CB Boo Carter no longer with team. Again.
(10/30) Vols have beaten 3 SEC teams all w/ 0 wins
(10/20) Mistakes killed vs Bama, 10 flags, pick six, safety
(10/20) OG'd Bama, Rush Off good, tackling was nightmare
(9/15) Great perf vs UGA, brutal loss. Off brilliant
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
Tennessee Injury Report
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
Tennessee on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffUK Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #42
SuccessSuc #18 #111
ExplosiveExp #128 #9
PPAPPA #46 #62
PowerPwr #15 #42
SP+SP+ #7 #48
Pts POPPO #55 #31
HavocHav #15 #56
Tennessee Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffUK Def
Run GameRun #7 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #122
Run ExplRExp #115 #24
PPAExp #39 #75
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #13 #67
Stuff RateStuff #4 #48
TackleTak -  #27
Tennessee Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #3 #109
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #75
Pass ExplPExl #113 #27
PPAExp #51 #46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #59 #24
F7 HavocF7 #33 #32
DB HavocDB #13 #95
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffTENN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #89 #55
SuccessSuc #89 #17
ExplosiveExp #123 #58
PPAPPA #118 #13
PowerPwr #42 #48
SP+SP+ #80 #63
Pts POPPO #104 #10
HavocHav #121 #5
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #90 #94
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #9
Run ExplRExp #133 #65
PPAExp #107 #17
Run BlockR Blk #47 -
OL YdsOLY #71 #17
Stuff RateStuff #78 #15
TackleTak -  #58
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #117 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #123 #48
Pass ExplPExl #10 #38
PPAExp #117 #32
Pass Block/RushP Blk #54 #23
F7 HavocF7 #120 #5
DB HavocDB #103 #39
Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
Tennessee 7.5 (55.5)
Tennessee won at Kentucky this year (56-34)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Kentucky last year (56-34)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2024 (28-18)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2023 (33-27)

  
TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)27240467%356524108.8
Jake Merklinger132454%173207.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop1821076165.950
Star Thomas (Tr)10459675.752
Peyton Lewis7029074.132
Daune Morris3513313.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II621017916.472
Braylon Staley68837612.373
Mike Matthews53813415.362
Ethan Davis21257212.240

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edwin Spillman814332
Jeremiah Telander806120
Edrees Farooq760003
Arion Carter756221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey277540
Caleb Herring156462
Tyre West238411
Daevin Hobbs304322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Redmond4310011
Colton Hood (Tr)505008
Jalen Mcmurray566225

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024