Tennessee at Kentucky Game Matchup
Tennessee logo Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (22 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#21)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
TENN 2nd straight Road Game
UK 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Tennessee -9.5   (SP+ TENN -13.5)
Projected Score: TENN: 27 - UK: 18 (47)
TENN Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
TENN Travel: 146 miles
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#107)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Tennessee vs Syracuse-12.555.5
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-41
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+7.5
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-34
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-13.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.5
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+15
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-9.5
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-38.5
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida+5
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-14.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Kentucky vs Toledo-11.50.0
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+10.5
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-22
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+13.5
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+25
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+21
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+9.5
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+14.5
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+12
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-28.5
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+2.5
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+9.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)35.748% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)16.136% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)20.647% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense1335.721.847.4%4.021.2234482272215.157%43%48%47%12%.23
UK Defense1222.117.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense1316.12637.6%3.031.6 - - - - - 48%51%36%39%21%.07
UK Offense1220.621.941.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee1329:3523.347%61%8.166.81.21.67.22.2231.6
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense1357% (23)48% (23)44.7226.85.134 (10).18 (39)3.4 (13)86% (2)8% (33)0.87 (115)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense1348% (42)36% (9) - - - - .01 (17)2.61 (17)62% (15)14% (5)0.98 (65)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense1343% (111)47% (19)18.228.7221.27.712.221 (51)7 (26).29 (51)1.5 (113)29% (25)34% (41).38 (50)4% (13)1.9 (114)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense1351% (87)39% (48) - - - - - - 12 (39).16 (32)1.5 (38)33% (46)31% (74).33 (80)7% (39)2 (44)
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 16.18 #18
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 17.75 #45
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 1.57 #13
2025 Talent Rating: 920.00 #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #16
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.4 #13
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #34
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.0 #7

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 16.18   Kentucky: 7.62

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 18.4   Kentucky: 4.7




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 7.62 #52
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.20 #54
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.66 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 4.6 - 7.4
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 27
Kentucky 18

Projected Total Points: 47
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Tennessee28Kentucky18TennesseeTennessee -17.5Kentucky45.5Over
202310/28Kentucky27Tennessee33TennesseeTennessee -4Tennessee50.5Over
202210/29Tennessee44Kentucky6TennesseeTennessee -10.5Tennessee62.5Under
202111/06Kentucky42Tennessee45TennesseeTennessee -1Tennessee57.5Over
202010/17Tennessee7Kentucky34KentuckyTennessee -6.0Kentucky45.5Under
201911/09Kentucky13Tennessee17TennesseeKentucky -2Tennessee42.0Under
201811/10Tennessee24Kentucky7TennesseeKentucky -5Tennessee43.0Under
201710/28Kentucky29Tennessee26KentuckyKentucky -4Tennessee46.0Over
201611/12Tennessee49Kentucky36TennesseeTennessee -10.5Tennessee58.0Over
201510/31Kentucky21Tennessee52TennesseeTennessee -7.5Tennessee60.5Over
201411/15Tennessee50Kentucky16TennesseeTennessee -6.5Tennessee0
201311/30Kentucky14Tennessee27TennesseeTennessee -4Tennessee0
201211/24Tennessee37Kentucky17Tennessee
201111/26Kentucky10Tennessee7Kentucky
201011/27Tennessee24Kentucky14Tennessee
200911/28Kentucky24Tennessee30Tennessee
200811/29Tennessee28Kentucky10Tennessee
200711/24Kentucky50Tennessee52Tennessee
200611/25Tennessee17Kentucky12Tennessee
200511/26Kentucky8Tennessee27Tennessee
200411/27Tennessee37Kentucky31Tennessee
200311/29Kentucky7Tennessee20Tennessee
200111/17Kentucky35Tennessee38Tennessee
200011/17Tennessee59Kentucky20Tennessee
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky326 Overs
Tennessee21104 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 114 - 83 - 41 - 4
Road Teams11 - 138 - 44 - 14 - 3

(#18) Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 16.18 #18
Offense Rating: 17.75 #45
Defense Rating: 1.57 #13
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.4 #13
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.0 #7
Talent Rating: 920.00 #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #16
Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Good Run Success 48%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.03 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Tennessee Notes
(5/11) OL exp bottom 20 & 53% comes from portals
(5/6) OT Heard was last in SEC in PFF grading
(5/4) Basically traded Nico for Joey Aguliar (App St QB)
(4/12) QB1 Merklinger (So)? Only 2 on roster, big need
(4/4) CB Jermod McCoy the #2 CB via PFF
(4/4) DE Joshua Josephs just outside top 10 via PFF
(3/22) TE Kitselman a top TE w/ great hands
(3/22) Def v good, returns a lot. DE Josephs v good
(3/20) WR rebuild. Brazzell/Matthews/talent ready?
(3/18) RB rebuild. Thomas (Duke) can help. Talented
Tennessee     Ratings Matchup     Kentucky
Power #18
#52
Off #45
#54
Def #13
#43
Talent #18
#25
SP+ #13
#43
SP+ Off #34
#79
SP+ Def #7
#31

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Kentucky last year (28-18)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2023 (33-27)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2022 (44-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TENN | UK
Depth Chart: TENN | UK
Rosters: TENN | UK
(#52) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.62 #52
Offense Rating: 16.20 #54
Defense Rating: 10.66 #43
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31
Talent Rating: 876.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Expected Record: 4.6 - 7.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Kentucky Notes
(5/5) UK 2-10 run in SEC home games & 0-7 streak
(4/4) OG Joshua Braun a top G via PFF
(3/24) Portal DL Gusta (WSU)/Grace (S Dak) big
(3/22) Added 13 players that started LY via portal
(3/18) Portal QB Calzada (Inc Word/A&M) can sling
(3/18) RBs Wilcox good, Dowdell (Neb) added
(3/18) WR rebuild, bad LY. 4 Portals. Big jump TY?
(3/18) OL rebuild 1/5 back, 5 portal adds. No clue
(3/18) Def good LY, new DE's. DB's OK LY, better TY?
(3/18) Tons of new faces, portals. Awful QB play LY


  
Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)21839056%300223147.7
Jake Merklinger6967%48005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)21387174.144
DeSean Bishop7445536.153
Peyton Lewis6433935.335
Joey Aguilar (Tr)5821723.749
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II29333211.553
Miles Kitselman22301413.731
Star Thomas (Tr)2015317.729
Ethan Davis1310027.718

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter687036
Jermod McCoy441007
Jeremiah Telander434111
Joshua Josephs399283
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey254250
Jaxson Moi165201
Tyre West165220
Joshua Josephs399283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermod McCoy441007
Arion Carter687036
Colton Hood (Tr)231006

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zach Calzada (Tr)31247166%34323297.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)15381335.338
Dante Dowdell (Tr)143614124.338
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Zach Calzada (Tr)8323052.833
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javian Hester14315122.590
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Seth McGowan (Tr)23277312.043
Troy Stellato (Tr)26266110.234

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landyn Watson (Tr)664030
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
J.Q. Hardaway470003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Olds (Tr)427621
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Sam Greene (Tr)153120
David Gusta (Tr)203163
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
David Gusta (Tr)203163
J.Q. Hardaway470003