Tennessee at Alabama - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo (#11)Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide(#6)Alabama logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -8.5 (60.5) (-340)  Open: -11.5 | 53.5
Alabama 37 - Tennessee: 20  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (37 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
ALA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -8  (SP+ ALA -5)

Projected Score: TENN: 26 - ALA: 34 (60)
ALA Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
TENN Travel: 280 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Crimson Tide (11 - 4) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.3 - 3.7 (#11)
Wins: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-7.563.5W 41 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.068.5W 34 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+8.560.5L 20 - 37UN
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-7.555.5W 56 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-3.055.5L 27 - 33ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-41.559.5W 42 - 9UN
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-3.557.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-2.066.5L 24 - 45ON
Tue 12/30 Tennessee vs Illinois-3.062.5L 28 - 30UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Alabama at Florida State-13.550.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Alabama vs UL Monroe-34.050.0W 73 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Alabama vs Wisconsin-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Alabama at Georgia+2.553.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/4 Alabama vs Vanderbilt-13.558.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Alabama at Missouri-3.550.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/18 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.560.5W 37 - 20UY
Sat 10/25 Alabama at South Carolina-11.547.5W 29 - 22ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Alabama vs LSU-10.549.5W 20 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Alabama vs Oklahoma-6.545.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 11/22 Alabama vs Eastern Illinois-50.557.5W 56 - 0UY
Sat 11/29 Alabama at Auburn-6.548.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 12/6 Alabama vs Georgia+2.547.5L 7 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Alabama at Oklahoma+1.542.0W 34 - 24OY
Thu 1/1 Alabama vs Indiana+7.546.5L 3 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#7 (.34)51% (6)39.852% (4)3.04 (52)16450% (9)2844.66 (11)#68 (.16)44% (97)28.846% (111)41% (67)4.16 (115)51.31.11.5
ALA#40 (.21)43% (61)29.540% (99)2.74 (110)10346% (33)2524.19 (32)#17 (.06)37% (15)19.237% (15)37% (26)3.4 (48)39.10.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense1339.83751%4.661.1244481642844.749%49%52%50%12%.34
ALA Defense1519.211.436.6%3.41.3 - - - - - 50%49%37%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense1328.82943.7%4.161.5 - - - - - 50%49%46%41%19%.16
ALA Offense1529.539.343%4.190.8203551032523.443%56%40%46%13%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee1325:3023.850%73%5.851.31.11.56.22.6328.4
Alabama1529:5219.642%65%4.439.10.81.35.42330.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense1349% (71)52% (4)34.9164.14.732 (16).26 (10)3.04 (52)84% (3)7% (18)0.95 (74)
ALA Defense1550% (61)37% (15) - - - - .08 (58)2.71 (32)74% (90)12% (17)1.04 (108)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense1350% (71)46% (111) - - - - .09 (65)2.81 (56)81% (123)12% (12)0.85 (16)
ALA Offense1543% (117)40% (99)29.9102.73.421 (99).03 (111)2.74 (110)67% (100)8% (27)0.84 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense1349% (67)50% (9)21.432.2283.58.813.326 (14)10 (88).43 (18)1.6 (57)26% (15)35% (22).48 (15)5% (33)2.2 (11)
ALA Defense1549% (72)37% (26) - - - - - - 11 (31).09 (11)1.5 (48)35% (16)27% (37).22 (39)7% (37)2 (62)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense1349% (80)41% (67) - - - - - - 10 (75).23 (59)1.6 (67)31% (70)27% (29).26 (58)7% (46)2.2 (124)
ALA Offense1556% (18)46% (33)21.332.7252.27.711.932 (2)5 (3).36 (34)1.6 (48)30% (40)34% (28).42 (25)5% (44)2 (64)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 21.08  #15
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 27.97  #5
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 6.89  #59
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.2  #21
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #5
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #61

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 21.08   Alabama: 25.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 15.2   Alabama: 20.6




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 25.905  #10
Alabama's Offense Rating: 19.39  #21
Alabama's Defense Rating: -7.34  #9
2025 Talent Rating: 1064.00  #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 73  #2
Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 11.3 - 3.7
Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.6  #12
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3  #22
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 34
Tennessee 26


Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Alabama 33
Tennessee 29

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 32
Tennessee 27

Total Points: 59
Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Alabama37Tennessee20Alabama -8.5Alabama60.5Under
202410/19Tennessee24Alabama17Alabama -3.5Tennessee57.5Under
202310/21Alabama34Tennessee20Alabama -8.5Alabama47.5Over
202210/15Tennessee52Alabama49Alabama -9Tennessee68.0Over
202110/23Alabama52Tennessee24Alabama -24.5Alabama68.0Over
202010/24Tennessee17Alabama48Alabama -21.5Alabama67.0Under
201910/19Alabama35Tennessee13Alabama -35Tennessee62.0Under
201810/20Tennessee21Alabama58Alabama -29.5Alabama57.5Over
201710/21Alabama45Tennessee7Alabama -36.5Alabama51.5Over
201610/15Tennessee10Alabama49Alabama -9Alabama54.5Over
201510/24Alabama19Tennessee14Alabama -14.5Tennessee48.5Under
201410/25Tennessee20Alabama34Alabama -15.5Tennessee0
201310/26Alabama45Tennessee10Alabama -26.5Alabama0
201210/20Tennessee13Alabama44
201110/22Alabama37Tennessee6
201010/23Tennessee10Alabama41
200910/24Alabama12Tennessee10
200810/25Tennessee9Alabama29
200710/20Alabama41Tennessee17
200610/21Tennessee16Alabama13
200510/22Alabama6Tennessee3
200410/23Tennessee17Alabama13
200310/25Alabama43Tennessee51
200210/26Tennessee14Alabama34
200110/20Alabama24Tennessee35
200010/20Tennessee20Alabama10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama1986 Overs
Tennessee755 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 108 - 55 - 23 - 3
Road Teams10 - 165 - 83 - 32 - 5

(#15) TENN at (#10) ALA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTENNALA
Power RatePwr #15 #10
SP+SP+ #21 #12
Perf GradeGrade #17 #14
OffenseOff #17 #32
DefenseDef #35 #12
Spec TeamsST #53 #16
TalentTal #20 #6
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #2
Tennessee Notes
(12/30) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (27-57)
(12/10) Hiring DC Jim Knowles (PSU/OSU). Good hire?
(12/8) Fired DC Tim Banks after 3 years, Def awful in '25
(11/30) Outrushed by Vandy 314-83. Vols Def fell off a cliff
(11/30) Zero wins vs teams w/ a winning record in '25
(11/16) CB Boo Carter no longer with team. Again.
(10/30) Vols have beaten 3 SEC teams all w/ 0 wins
(10/20) Mistakes killed vs Bama, 10 flags, pick six, safety
(10/20) OG'd Bama, Rush Off good, tackling was nightmare
(9/15) Great perf vs UGA, brutal loss. Off brilliant
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
Tennessee Injury Report
Alabama Notes
(11/16) Run Off exposed vs OU. OG'd OU but TO's costly
(10/15) RB1 Jam Miller ? for Tenn game
(10/11) Avg 140 yds rush pg with Jam Miller, 80 yds without
(10/6) Leads CFB in TO margin +9, Simpson a Heisman fav
(10/3) Have scored on 1st drive in 3 of 4 games (Scripted)
(10/1) DE/LB Qua Russaw out weeks (foot), big depth hit
(9/14) QB Simpson looks good, Run Off just bad?
(9/3) DT J Beaman out for season (lower body)
(8/30) Outrushed 230-87 vs FSU, Simpson a JAG?
(8/30) Offense 6-17 on 3rd, 2-5 on 4th down. Issues
(8/27) DL Tim Keenan out multiple weeks (ankle inj)
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
Alabama Injury Report
Tennessee on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffALA Def
Perf GradePerf #17 #12
SuccessSuc #6 #15
ExplosiveExp #52 #75
PPAPPA #7 #17
PowerPwr #5 #9
SP+SP+ #5 #6
Pts POPPO #11 #48
HavocHav #17 #22
Tennessee Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffALA Def
Run GameRun #12 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #4 #15
Run ExplRExp #74 #108
PPAExp #10 #58
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLY #52 #32
Stuff RateStuff #15 #50
TackleTak -  #26
Tennessee Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffALA Def
Pass GamePass #3 #5
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #26
Pass ExplPExl #57 #48
PPAExp #18 #11
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #34 #127
F7 HavocF7 #18 #17
DB HavocDB #33 #37
Alabama on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffTENN Def
Perf GradePerf #32 #35
SuccessSuc #61 #97
ExplosiveExp #46 #25
PPAPPA #40 #68
PowerPwr #21 #59
SP+SP+ #22 #61
Pts POPPO #32 #115
HavocHav #33 #18
Alabama Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #66 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #99 #111
Run ExplRExp #120 #16
PPAExp #111 #65
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLY #110 #56
Stuff RateStuff #103 #39
TackleTak -  #63
Alabama Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #29 #46
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #67
Pass ExplPExl #48 #67
PPAExp #34 #59
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6 #24
F7 HavocF7 #27 #12
DB HavocDB #44 #46
Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 82° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Alabama -8.5 (60.5)
Alabama won vs Tennessee this year (37-20)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Alabama last year (24-17)
Alabama beat Tennessee in 2023 (34-20)
Tennessee beat Alabama in 2022 (52-49)

  
TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)25838667%344424108.9
Jake Merklinger132454%173207.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop163983146.050
Star Thomas (Tr)9552975.652
Peyton Lewis7029074.132
Daune Morris3513313.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II621017916.472
Braylon Staley64806612.673
Mike Matthews50770415.462
Ethan Davis21257212.240

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter756221
Edwin Spillman744332
Jeremiah Telander716120
Edrees Farooq710002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey257530
Tyre West227411
Caleb Herring156452
Daevin Hobbs283322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Redmond391009
Colton Hood (Tr)505008
Jalen Mcmurray546223

ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ty Simpson29345764%35002857.7
Austin Mack131681%125207.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Miller13050433.924
Daniel Hill7027163.930
Kevin Riley5622224.022
AK Dear1914037.456
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Germie Bernard60802713.443
Ryan Williams43636414.875
Isaiah Horton (Tr)40495812.437
Lotzeir Brooks32441213.853

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Jefferson767325
Deontae Lawson764114
Brayson Hubbard663118
Keon Sabb493213
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Yhonzae Pierre4813781
Lebbeus Overton336441
Justin Jefferson767325
Keon Keeley123311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard663118
Zabien Brown333006
Justin Jefferson767325