Tennessee at Alabama - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo (#15)Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide(#14)Alabama logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Bryant Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, AL  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 53 - 29 (53 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#37)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
ALA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -9   (SP+ ALA -5)

Projected Score: TENN: 31 - ALA: 40 (71)
ALA Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
TENN Travel: 280 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Crimson Tide (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 43 - 15 (56 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 3.6 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-9
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+9
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-11
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-39.5
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-2.5
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-7

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Alabama at Florida State-13.550.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Alabama vs UL Monroe-34.050.0W 73 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Alabama vs Wisconsin-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Alabama at Georgia+0
Sat 10/4 Alabama vs Vanderbilt-13.5
Sat 10/11 Alabama at Missouri-2.5
Sat 10/18 Alabama vs Tennessee-9
Sat 10/25 Alabama at South Carolina-14
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Alabama vs LSU-8.5
Sat 11/15 Alabama vs Oklahoma-5
Sat 11/22 Alabama vs Eastern Illinois-52.5
Sat 11/29 Alabama at Auburn-2

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#17 (.43)53% (22)52.751% (35)3.07 (61)21654% (21)3595.22 (26)#73 (.14)43% (89)2947% (102)39% (62)5.13 (124)6411.3
ALA#12 (.45)51% (27)42.742% (86)3.25 (42)12457% (12)3365.26 (23)#84 (.16)36% (44)1536% (43)38% (56)4.43 (102)60.702
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense352.752.752.6%5.221295742163595.449%51%51%54%8%.43
ALA Defense315736%4.432 - - - - - 66%32%36%38%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense3292942.6%5.131.3 - - - - - 51%49%47%39%17%.14
ALA Offense342.755.551%5.260234591243364.340%60%42%57%8%.45

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee327:2028.758%0%7.76411.364030
Alabama330:512346%56%6.760.7026.31.7036.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense349% (76)51% (35)40215.75.48 (26).26 (38)3.07 (61)76% (51)4% (5)0.94 (73)
ALA Defense366% (134)36% (43) - - - - .13 (96)3.14 (107)83% (110)14% (23)1.09 (95)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense351% (84)47% (102) - - - - .06 (67)2.69 (58)79% (106)10% (76)0.64 (7)
ALA Offense340% (126)42% (86)29123.74.34 (79).09 (87)3.25 (42)83% (28)6% (16)0.79 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense351% (58)54% (21)2638.7358.79.313.811 (5)2 (60).6 (15)1.6 (47)26% (27)33% (62).58 (28)4% (45)2.5 (15)
ALA Defense332% (2)38% (56) - - - - - - 3 (28).24 (75)2 (133)37% (33)31% (81).44 (106)4% (103)2.1 (92)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense349% (61)39% (62) - - - - - - 2 (56).23 (74)1.6 (80)28% (114)16% (17).17 (44)8% (30)3 (136)
ALA Offense360% (11)57% (12)25.335.3335.79.513.313 (2)0 (1).69 (8)1.7 (26)28% (44)36% (40).67 (22)3% (16)2.6 (6)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 23.58 #20
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 27.17 #11
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.59 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53% #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #6
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #12
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 23.58   Alabama: 31.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 21.8   Alabama: 26.4




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 31.685 #8
Alabama's Offense Rating: 31.03 #4
Alabama's Defense Rating: -2.84 #16
2025 Talent Rating: 1064.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #2
Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6
Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.4 #4
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.8 #6
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.6 #5

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 52.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 52.7
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 40
Tennessee 31


Total Points: 71

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 42.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 55.5
Defense: 15 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Tennessee24Alabama17TennesseeAlabama -3.5Tennessee57.5Under
202310/21Alabama34Tennessee20AlabamaAlabama -8.5Alabama47.5Over
202210/15Tennessee52Alabama49TennesseeAlabama -9Tennessee68.0Over
202110/23Alabama52Tennessee24AlabamaAlabama -24.5Alabama68.0Over
202010/24Tennessee17Alabama48AlabamaAlabama -21.5Alabama67.0Under
201910/19Alabama35Tennessee13AlabamaAlabama -35Tennessee62.0Under
201810/20Tennessee21Alabama58AlabamaAlabama -29.5Alabama57.5Over
201710/21Alabama45Tennessee7AlabamaAlabama -36.5Alabama51.5Over
201610/15Tennessee10Alabama49AlabamaAlabama -9Alabama54.5Over
201510/24Alabama19Tennessee14AlabamaAlabama -14.5Tennessee48.5Under
201410/25Tennessee20Alabama34AlabamaAlabama -15.5Tennessee0
201310/26Alabama45Tennessee10AlabamaAlabama -26.5Alabama0
201210/20Tennessee13Alabama44Alabama
201110/22Alabama37Tennessee6Alabama
201010/23Tennessee10Alabama41Alabama
200910/24Alabama12Tennessee10Alabama
200810/25Tennessee9Alabama29Alabama
200710/20Alabama41Tennessee17Alabama
200610/21Tennessee16Alabama13Tennessee
200510/22Alabama6Tennessee3Alabama
200410/23Tennessee17Alabama13Tennessee
200310/25Alabama43Tennessee51Tennessee
200210/26Tennessee14Alabama34Alabama
200110/20Alabama24Tennessee35Tennessee
200010/20Tennessee20Alabama10Tennessee
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama1876 Overs
Tennessee754 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 107 - 54 - 23 - 3
Road Teams10 - 155 - 73 - 32 - 4

(#20) Tennessee Info
Power Rating: 23.58 #20
Offense Rating: 27.17 #11
Defense Rating: 3.59 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #6
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #12
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #10
Talent Rating: 910.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53% #10
Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.22 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Great Pass Success 54%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.13 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Tennessee has lost 4 straight
Tennessee has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Tennessee Notes
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
(9/1) Starting CB R Gibson out until Oct (arm inj)
(8/30) 500+ yds vs Cuse, Aguilar good on deep shots
(8/17) QB1 Aguliar (App St) wins battle for starter
(7/25) TE Kitselman a top TE, but injured in spring
(7/25) CB duo McCoy/Gibson great, is McCoy healthy?
(5/11) OL exp bottom 20 & 53% comes from portals
(5/6) OT Heard was last in SEC in PFF grading
(5/4) Basically traded Nico for Joey Aguliar (App St QB)

Tennessee Highlights
Tennessee is Undefeated vs Spread

Tennessee has Really Good Running Game (#21)
Tennessee offense is efficent (#22)
Tennessee offense is good in red zone (#26)
Tennessee offense is good on 3rd downs
Tennessee Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Tennessee defense does not give up big plays (#18)
Tennessee Secondary is very good (#30)

Tennessee Deficiencies
Tennessee Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Tennessee Does Not Stuff Runs (#111)
Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#124)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatALATENN
OverallOver#25#13
OffenseOff#29#13
DefenseDef#27#40
Special TeamsST#19#52
PassingPass#15#7
RushingRush#59#10
Run BlockRBLK#75#64
Pass BlockPBLK#48#35
Route RunningWR Rt#15#10
TacklingTkl#79#35
Run DefenseR Def#25#55
Pass Rush DefPRush#96#7
Coverage DefCov#27#67

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Alabama last year (24-17)
Alabama beat Tennessee in 2023 (34-20)
Tennessee beat Alabama in 2022 (52-49)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TENN | ALA
Depth Chart: TENN | ALA
Rosters: TENN | ALA
(#8) Alabama Info
Power Rating: 31.685 #8
Offense Rating: 31.03 #4
Defense Rating: -2.84 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.4 #4
Offense SP+ Rating: 39.8 #6
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.6 #5
Talent Rating: 1064.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #2
Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
Good Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.26 PPO
Bad Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 57%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Good Run Def Success 36%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Alabama has lost 3 straight
Alabama has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Alabama Notes
(9/3) DT J Beaman out for season (lower body)
(8/30) Outrushed 230-87 vs FSU, Simpson a JAG?
(8/30) Offense 6-17 on 3rd, 2-5 on 4th down. Issues
(8/27) DL Tim Keenan out multiple weeks (ankle inj)
(8/17) RB Jam Miller out 6-8 weeks (collarbone)
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
(5/23) OL returns 3/5 + portals = top 15 unit in CFB
(5/7) Fr WR Lotzeir Brooks flashed in spring will play
(5/2) CB Calhoun, LB Lawson, S Hubbard top 10 via PFF
(4/13) QB Simpson will start, Fr. Russell the future

Alabama Highlights
Alabama is Undefeated at Home
Alabama is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Alabama offense is efficent (#27)
Alabama offense is explosive (#21)
Alabama offense is good in red zone (#23)
Alabama offense is good on 3rd downs
Alabama Front 7 is disruptive (#23)
Alabama has a great TO Margin (#1)
Alabama defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Alabama Deficiencies
Alabama Can Not Run the Ball (#101)
Alabama gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#107)
Alabama Does Not Stuff Runs (#107)
Alabama has a bad defensive line (#107)
Alabama has a bad red zone defense (#102)


  
Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)639566%906929.5
Jake Merklinger91464%118208.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)3322136.727
DeSean Bishop2920417.050
Peyton Lewis217623.68
Daune Morris115014.510
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II20364518.272
Braylon Staley18231212.873
Mike Matthews13199115.353
Miles Kitselman87919.918

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter262100
Jalen Mcmurray171101
Andre Turrentine150000
Edrees Farooq140002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Josephs123201
Caleb Herring54210
Tyre West101110
Charles House III22100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Hood (Tr)110005
Ty Redmond90003
Edrees Farooq140002

Alabama's OC Ryan Grubb
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ty Simpson648972%862909.7
Austin Mack81173%80207.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Riley2312005.222
AK Dear785112.156
Richard Young194812.56
Ty Simpson174512.619
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Germie Bernard15275318.343
Ryan Williams10195219.575
Isaiah Horton (Tr)9105211.729
Lotzeir Brooks688014.719

View Alabama's Full Roster
Alabama's DC Kane Wommack
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deontae Lawson101000
Keon Sabb91100
Brayson Hubbard81012
Justin Jefferson71011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Qua Russaw31100
London Simmons41100
Keon Sabb91100
Yhonzae Pierre73120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard81012
Justin Jefferson71011
Zabien Brown30001