USC at Illinois - 2025 Matchup Preview
USC logo (#25)USC Trojans at Illinois Fighting Illini(#9)Illinois logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Memorial Stadium - Champaign, IL  (Big Ten)

 
Trojans (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 55 - 17 (33 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.8 - 2.2 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
ILL is playing their 5th straight game
USC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: USC -2.5   (SP+ USC -2)

Projected Score: USC: 29 - ILL: 26 (55)
USC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USC Travel: 1701 miles, 2 hrs behind
Fighting Illini (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (27 - 22)
Avg Score : 45 - 7 (45 - 2 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 2.7 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-17.555.5
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-5.5
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame-5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-5.5
Sat 11/8 USC vs Northwestern-28.5
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-14.5
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+7
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-35

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Illinois vs Western Illinois-48.562.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Illinois at Duke-2.549.0W 45 - 19OY
Sat 9/13 Illinois vs Western Michigan-27.550.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 Illinois at Indiana+4.052.5
Sat 9/27 Illinois vs USC+2.5
Sat 10/4 Illinois at Purdue-22.5
Sat 10/11 Illinois vs Ohio State+6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Illinois at Washington-1.5
Sat 11/1 Illinois vs Rutgers-13.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Illinois vs Maryland-12.5
Sat 11/22 Illinois at Wisconsin-9
Sat 11/29 Illinois vs Northwestern-23.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#3 (.6)62% (2)5565% (3)4 (2)24059% (7)3645.59 (9)#8 (-.1)36% (43)16.739% (69)35% (42)1.95 (14)80.30.72.3
ILL#25 (.37)50% (30)4551% (34)3.13 (55)16549% (36)2415.76 (5)#35 (.03)38% (56)7.332% (21)42% (80)2.09 (16)52.302
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense3553361.7%5.590.726604240364751%48%65%59%10%.6
ILL Defense37.31.537.6%2.092 - - - - - 42%58%32%42%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense316.71735.9%1.952.3 - - - - - 34%66%39%35%22%-.1
ILL Offense3454550.3%5.760224061652414.351%49%51%49%13%.37

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC330:3625.752%100%7.380.30.72.310.34.7226.2
Illinois333:292247%100%5.752.3026.33137.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense351% (63)65% (3)34.3240712 (3).37 (16)4 (2)89% (16)8% (47)0.79 (111)
ILL Defense342% (19)32% (21) - - - - -.24 (4)2.56 (49)43% (10)14% (22)0.43 (1)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense334% (2)39% (69) - - - - .03 (58)2.82 (75)67% (53)17% (6)0.9 (59)
ILL Offense351% (66)51% (34)38.7164.74.39 (17).18 (50)3.13 (55)69% (83)11% (103)0.91 (80)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense348% (74)59% (7)20.328.336412.917.97 (23)0 (1).91 (2)2 (10)20% (7)38% (32).69 (18)3% (26)2.4 (19)
ILL Defense358% (121)42% (80) - - - - - - 1 (87).22 (73)1.6 (88)34% (59)33% (95).14 (40)4% (104)1.6 (34)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense366% (135)35% (42) - - - - - - 6 (2)-.18 (8)1.7 (112)38% (18)28% (65).03 (23)5% (80)2.4 (119)
ILL Offense349% (68)49% (36)1926.32419.212.78 (18)0 (1).57 (17)1.8 (22)31% (78)48% (7).82 (8)3% (16)2 (68)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 31.89 #9
USC's Offense Rating: 29.19 #6
USC's Defense Rating: -4.40 #10
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.8 - 2.2
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.8 #9
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 31.89   Illinois: 23.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 19.8   Illinois: 17.7




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 23.165 #19
Illinois's Offense Rating: 24.50 #19
Illinois's Defense Rating: 0.87 #30
2025 Talent Rating: 864.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 2.7
Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.7 #16
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #23
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #20

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


USC Scoring
Offense: 55 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 16.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
USC 29
Illinois 26


Total Points: 55

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 45 PPG
Offense at Home: 45
Defense: 7.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 1.5

Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
200701/01USC49Illinois17USC
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois000 Overs
USC100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#9) USC Info
Power Rating: 31.89 #9
Offense Rating: 29.19 #6
Defense Rating: -4.40 #10
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.8 #9
Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35
Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
Expected Record: 9.8 - 2.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 62%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.59 PPO
Great Run Success 65%
Great Pass Success 59%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 1.95 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 35%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

USC has lost 1 straight
USC has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

USC Notes
(8/22) QB Maiava good at times, but is he a baller?
(8/21) OG DJ Winfield ruled ineligible, blow to OL
(6/5) WR Lemon/Lane a top duo in CFB, 2 portal adds
(6/5) Def lost a lot. 7 Portal adds, 5 DB, 2 DL.
(6/5) New OC Huard (USC QBs), Riley still calling plays
(6/5) F7 very talented but not very productive so far
(6/5) DBs should be much better with 5 portal adds
(5/23) Safeties Ramsey & Fitzgerald a strong duo
(5/13) Caden Chittenden (UNLV) top kicker portal add
(4/4) JUCO RB Waymond Jordan looks great early

USC Highlights
USC in Undefeated

USC has Really Good Running Game (#13)
USC offense is efficent (#2)
USC has a top Offensive Line (#2)
USC offense is good in red zone (#9)
USC offense is good on 3rd downs
USC does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#6)

USC Defense Sacks the QB a lot

USC defense is really good in red zone (#14)
USC Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#22)
USC Front 7 is disruptive (#6)
USC has a great TO Margin (#28)
USC defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#2)

USC Deficiencies
USC Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
USC gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#114)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatILLUSC
OverallOver#15#7
OffenseOff#14#11
DefenseDef#23#11
Special TeamsST#45#30
PassingPass#29#30
RushingRush#17#23
Run BlockRBLK#21#45
Pass BlockPBLK#81#18
Route RunningWR Rt#24#4
TacklingTkl#32#11
Run DefenseR Def#19#35
Pass Rush DefPRush#16#41
Coverage DefCov#59#1

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USC | ILL
Depth Chart: USC | ILL
Rosters: USC | ILL
(#19) Illinois Info
Power Rating: 23.165 #19
Offense Rating: 24.50 #19
Defense Rating: 0.87 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.7 #16
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #23
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #20
Talent Rating: 864.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
Expected Record: 9.3 - 2.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.76 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Good Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 2.09 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Illinois has lost 1 straight
Illinois has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Illinois Notes
(6/6) QB Altmyer 3rd yr w/ OC Lunney. Big goals TY
(6/6) RBs Laughery good, Feegan back from inj (hip)
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, Clement (WVU) + Bowick (BSU)
(6/6) OL has 4/5 back, 3 portals, should improve TY
(6/6) Def looks really deep, could be better unit
(6/6) Secondary one of best in B1G, Pass rush ?
(6/6) Def good LY, returns a lot. 7 portal DL added
(5/23) Illini were 5-1 in 1 score games LY
(4/5) OC Lunney underrated, good play caller
(4/4) Beilema good HC, returns a ton. Big year?

Illinois Highlights
Illinois is Undefeated vs Spread
Illinois in Undefeated
Illinois is Undefeated at Home
Illinois is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Illinois offense is efficent (#30)
Illinois offense is good in red zone (#5)
Illinois offense is good on 3rd downs
Illinois Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Illinois defense is really good in red zone (#16)
Illinois has a good run defense (#21)
Illinois Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#6)
Illinois Front 7 is disruptive (#22)
Illinois has a great TO Margin (#1)

Illinois Deficiencies


  
USC's OC Luke Huard
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava487069%9896014.1
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Waymond Jordan3928637.336
Eli Sanders (Tr)2316027.020
King Miller11152213.875
Husan Longstreet96026.717
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon16311219.474
Ja'Kobi Lane9239126.659
Lake McRee7173124.764
Eli Sanders (Tr)488122.073

View USC's Full Roster
USC's DC D'Anton Lynn
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eric Gentry215300
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)151001
Christian Pierce112101
Desman Stephens II110000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eric Gentry215300
Kameryn Fountain65300
Braylan Shelby94210
Anthony Lucas52210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)30002
Devan Thompkins52111
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)151001

Illinois's OC Barry Lunney Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer567872%709809.1
Ethan Hampton (Tr)11100%140014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaden Feagin5022234.426
Ca'Lil Valentine2515826.323
Aidan Laughery1510627.157
Hank Beatty125125.025
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Hank Beatty19289115.259
Justin Bowick (Tr)886310.821
Hudson Clement (Tr)575015.027
Malik Elzy571014.225

View Illinois's Full Roster
Illinois's DC Aaron Henry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Hood140000
Miles Scott141000
Matthew Bailey130010
Leon Lowery92100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas84421
Tomiwa Durojaiye (Tr)51120
Tanner Heckel41101
Leon Lowery92100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joe Barna30002
Xavier Scott62002
Torrie Cox Jr.80001