USC at Illinois - 2025 Matchup Preview
USC logo (#21)USC Trojans at Illinois Fighting Illini(#23)Illinois logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
USC -6.5 (62.5) (-250)  Open: -1.5
Illinois 34 - USC: 32  (Big Ten)

 
Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
ILL is playing their 5th straight game
USC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: USC -5  (SP+ USC -6.5)

Projected Score: USC: 31 - ILL: 26 (58)
USC Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
USC Travel: 1701 miles, 2 hrs behind
Fighting Illini (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (27 - 22)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-18.555.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-6.562.5L 32 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-3.058.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame+10.560.5L 24 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-4.559.5W 21 - 17UN
Fri 11/7 USC vs Northwestern-14.554.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-6.548.5W 26 - 21UN
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+10.559.5L 27 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-21.059.0W 29 - 10UN
Tue 12/30 USC vs TCU-4.556.5L 27 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Illinois vs Western Illinois-48.562.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Illinois at Duke-2.549.0W 45 - 19OY
Sat 9/13 Illinois vs Western Michigan-27.550.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 Illinois at Indiana+7.051.5L 10 - 63ON
Sat 9/27 Illinois vs USC+6.562.5W 34 - 32OY
Sat 10/4 Illinois at Purdue-7.555.5W 43 - 27OY
Sat 10/11 Illinois vs Ohio State+15.551.5L 16 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Illinois at Washington+3.554.5L 25 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Illinois vs Rutgers-13.563.5W 35 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Illinois vs Maryland-15.551.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 11/22 Illinois at Wisconsin-8.542.5L 10 - 27UN
Sat 11/29 Illinois vs Northwestern-7.044.5W 20 - 13UN
Tue 12/30 Illinois vs Tennessee+3.062.5W 30 - 28UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#6 (.35)50% (7)35.848% (18)3.25 (21)16153% (4)2744.72 (8)#59 (.14)45% (121)2347% (122)43% (88)3.37 (42)50.41.11.3
ILL#41 (.21)47% (19)29.447% (35)2.97 (66)12149% (13)2214.3 (27)#97 (.2)45% (114)23.639% (39)50% (134)4.27 (122)37.90.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1335.827.450.3%4.721.1224351612745.448%50%48%53%13%.35
ILL Defense1323.614.445.1%4.271.2 - - - - - 43%55%39%50%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense132328.845.5%3.371.3 - - - - - 48%50%47%43%16%.14
ILL Offense1329.431.347.4%4.30.8193421212213.850%48%47%49%15%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1327:2322.252%64%5.350.41.11.352.2226.9
Illinois1328:0919.242%60%4.337.90.81.24.41.8130.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1348% (83)48% (18)30160.55.428 (16).21 (24)3.25 (21)79% (24)7% (22)0.95 (76)
ILL Defense1343% (7)39% (39) - - - - .05 (40)2.78 (50)73% (87)9% (89)0.91 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1348% (51)47% (122) - - - - .11 (70)3.27 (125)65% (25)11% (35)0.79 (6)
ILL Offense1350% (61)47% (35)32.2121.23.820 (40).05 (101)2.97 (66)71% (75)10% (94)0.8 (129)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1350% (56)53% (4)20.230274.59.213.625 (22)8 (34).51 (4)1.6 (42)26% (10)38% (10).52 (10)6% (68)2.2 (18)
ILL Defense1355% (129)50% (134) - - - - - - 6 (123).33 (103)1.3 (5)28% (120)37% (132).39 (114)6% (49)2 (50)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1350% (89)43% (88) - - - - - - 11 (12).17 (38)1.6 (76)29% (118)32% (100).28 (65)5% (104)2.1 (104)
ILL Offense1348% (75)49% (13)17.826220.78.512.422 (33)6 (7).44 (15)1.6 (44)29% (35)37% (15).38 (40)5% (33)1.9 (102)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 22.90  #13
USC's Offense Rating: 26.26  #9
USC's Defense Rating: 3.36  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40%  #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3  #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4  #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5  #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 22.90   Illinois: 14.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 17.3   Illinois: 10.9




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 14.865  #34
Illinois's Offense Rating: 21.04  #17
Illinois's Defense Rating: 7.21  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 864.00  #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.9  #31
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #35
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #41

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
USC 31
Illinois 26


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Illinois 28
USC 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Illinois 28
USC 25

Total Points: 53
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Illinois34USC32USC -6.5Illinois62.5Over
200701/01USC49Illinois17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois111 Overs
USC100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#13) USC at (#34) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSCILL
Power RatePwr #13 #34
SP+SP+ #17 #31
Perf GradeGrade #33 #27
OffenseOff #18 #18
DefenseDef #79 #63
Spec TeamsST #122 #69
TalentTal #21 #37
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #39
USC Notes
(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report
Illinois Notes
(11/22) Finishes 2-3 on road after awful L @ Wisconsin
(10/10) 1st in P4 at +42 Pts off TOs w/ a TO margin +7
(9/20) Destroyed by IU, outrushed 267 to 2! Off awful
(8/15) OL banged up in fall camp, not major
(6/6) QB Altmyer 3rd yr w/ OC Lunney. Big goals TY
(6/6) RBs Laughery good, Feegan back from inj (hip)
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, Clement (WVU) + Bowick (BSU)
(6/6) OL has 4/5 back, 3 portals, should improve TY
(6/6) Def looks really deep, could be better unit
(6/6) Secondary one of best in B1G, Pass rush ?
(6/6) Def good LY, returns a lot. 7 portal DL added
(5/23) Illini were 5-1 in 1 score games LY
Illinois Injury Report
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffILL Def
Perf GradePerf #18 #63
SuccessSuc #7 #114
ExplosiveExp #37 #34
PPAPPA #6 #97
PowerPwr #9 #64
SP+SP+ #11 #41
Pts POPPO #8 #122
HavocHav #34 #73
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffILL Def
Run GameRun #22 #45
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #39
Run ExplRExp #76 #43
PPAExp #24 #40
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #50
Stuff RateStuff #32 #54
TackleTak -  #33
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #23 #99
Pass SuccessPSuc #4 #134
Pass ExplPExl #42 #5
PPAExp #4 #103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #107 #42
F7 HavocF7 #22 #89
DB HavocDB #68 #49
Illinois on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatILL OffUSC Def
Perf GradePerf #18 #79
SuccessSuc #19 #121
ExplosiveExp #106 #13
PPAPPA #41 #59
PowerPwr #17 #36
SP+SP+ #35 #35
Pts POPPO #27 #42
HavocHav #65 #63
Illinois Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ILL OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #69 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #35 #122
Run ExplRExp #129 #6
PPAExp #101 #70
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #125
Stuff RateStuff #87 #85
TackleTak -  #26
Illinois Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatILL OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #37 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #13 #88
Pass ExplPExl #44 #76
PPAExp #15 #38
Pass Block/RushP Blk #79 #84
F7 HavocF7 #94 #35
DB HavocDB #33 #104
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 82°
Rematch from Week 5
USC 6.5 (62.5)
Illinois won vs USC this year (34-32)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava24737366%34312389.2
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
King Miller13187376.775
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
Eli Sanders (Tr)4425825.920
Jayden Maiava5115062.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon7911561114.674
Ja'Kobi Lane49745415.259
Lake McRee30450415.064
Tanook Hines28398214.251

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desman Stephens II801010
Eric Gentry717312
Christian Pierce582103
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)513103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby236530
Kameryn Fountain308400
Jide Abasiri244420
Anthony Lucas374370
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcelles Williams330004
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)40004
Christian Pierce582103

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer22633268%28112158.5
Ethan Hampton (Tr)3475%27016.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ca'Lil Valentine12354944.525
Kaden Feagin11949974.226
Aidan Laughery6230534.957
Luke Altmyer9018842.136
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Hank Beatty64826312.962
Collin Dixon33538516.361
Hudson Clement (Tr)33406312.327
Justin Bowick (Tr)19234412.325

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey764012
Miles Scott594104
Dylan Rosiek494013
Torrie Cox Jr.461003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas44141161
Tomiwa Durojaiye (Tr)165231
Leon Lowery183230
James Thompson Jr. (Tr)333221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaheim Clarke291007
Miles Scott594104
James Kreutz273003