Tennessee at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo   Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators  Florida logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Tennessee -3.5 (57.5) (-175)  Open: -4.0
Tennessee 31 - Florida: 11  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (37 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
FLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Tennessee -4  (SP+ TENN -11.5)

Projected Score: TENN: 31 - FLA: 27 (57)
TENN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TENN Travel: 445 miles
Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-7.563.5W 41 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.068.5W 34 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+8.560.5L 20 - 37UN
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-7.555.5W 56 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-3.055.5L 27 - 33ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-41.559.5W 42 - 9UN
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-3.557.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-2.066.5L 24 - 45ON
Tue 12/30 Tennessee vs Illinois-3.062.5L 28 - 30UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+7.050.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-4.544.5L 7 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+10.553.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+3.557.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State+1.548.5W 40 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)39.848% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)28.836% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)21.645% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)2449% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense1339.83747.4%4.021.2234482272215.157%43%48%47%12%.23
FLA Defense132418.743.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense1328.82937.6%3.031.6 - - - - - 48%51%36%39%21%.07
FLA Offense1321.62943%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee1329:3523.347%61%8.166.81.21.67.22.2231.6
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense1357% (23)48% (23)44.7226.85.134 (10).18 (39)3.4 (13)86% (2)8% (33)0.87 (115)
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense1348% (42)36% (9) - - - - .01 (17)2.61 (17)62% (15)14% (5)0.98 (65)
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense1343% (111)47% (19)18.228.7221.27.712.221 (51)7 (26).29 (51)1.5 (113)29% (25)34% (41).38 (50)4% (13)1.9 (114)
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense1351% (87)39% (48) - - - - - - 12 (39).16 (32)1.5 (38)33% (46)31% (74).33 (80)7% (39)2 (44)
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 13.66  #27
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 24.25  #15
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 10.59  #48
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.0  #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #7
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #63

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 13.66   Florida: 10.195

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 15.0   Florida: 3.5




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 10.195  #33
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.44  #41
Florida's Defense Rating: 5.55  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 31
Florida 27


Projected Total Points: 57
Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Florida11Tennessee31Tennessee -3.5Tennessee57.5Under
202410/12Tennessee23Florida17Tennessee -13.5Florida54.5Under
202309/16Florida29Tennessee16Tennessee -5Florida57.0Under
202209/24Tennessee38Florida33Tennessee -11Florida62.0Over
202109/25Florida38Tennessee14Florida -19Florida65.0Under
202012/05Tennessee19Florida31Florida -18.5Tennessee63.0Under
201909/21Florida34Tennessee3Florida -12.5Florida49.5Under
201809/22Tennessee21Florida47Florida -3.5Florida46.0Over
201709/16Florida26Tennessee20Florida -6.5Tennessee50.5Under
201609/24Tennessee38Florida28Tennessee -8Tennessee42.5Over
201509/26Florida28Tennessee27Florida -3Tennessee50.5Over
201410/04Tennessee9Florida10Florida -1.5Tennessee0
201309/21Florida31Tennessee17Florida -15.5Tennessee0
201209/15Tennessee20Florida37
201109/17Florida33Tennessee23
201009/18Tennessee17Florida31
200909/19Florida23Tennessee13
200809/20Tennessee6Florida30
200709/15Florida59Tennessee20
200609/16Tennessee20Florida21
200509/17Florida16Tennessee7
200409/18Tennessee30Florida28
200309/20Florida10Tennessee24
200209/21Tennessee13Florida30
200112/01Florida32Tennessee34
200009/15Tennessee23Florida27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1964 Overs
Tennessee777 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 126 - 73 - 53 - 2
Road Teams12 - 147 - 62 - 35 - 3

(#27) TENN at (#33) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTENNFLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #27 #33
SP+SP+ #19 #63
Perf GradeGrade #19 #49
OffenseOff #15 #51
DefenseDef #55 #62
Spec TeamsST #32 #86
TalentTal #20 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #12
Tennessee Notes
(12/30) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (27-57)
(12/10) Hiring DC Jim Knowles (PSU/OSU). Good hire?
(12/8) Fired DC Tim Banks after 3 years, Def awful in '25
(11/30) Outrushed by Vandy 314-83. Vols Def fell off a cliff
(11/30) Zero wins vs teams w/ a winning record in '25
(11/16) CB Boo Carter no longer with team. Again.
(10/30) Vols have beaten 3 SEC teams all w/ 0 wins
(10/20) Mistakes killed vs Bama, 10 flags, pick six, safety
(10/20) OG'd Bama, Rush Off good, tackling was nightmare
(9/15) Great perf vs UGA, brutal loss. Off brilliant
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
Tennessee Injury Report
Florida Notes
(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report
Tennessee on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffFLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #62
SuccessSuc #18 #95
ExplosiveExp #128 #32
PPAPPA #46 #53
PowerPwr #15 #25
SP+SP+ #7 #43
Pts POPPO #55 #14
HavocHav #15 #36
Tennessee Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #7 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #118
Run ExplRExp #115 #10
PPAExp #39 #73
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #13 #78
Stuff RateStuff #4 #84
TackleTak -  #11
Tennessee Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #3 #80
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #44
Pass ExplPExl #113 #87
PPAExp #51 #34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #59 #98
F7 HavocF7 #33 #37
DB HavocDB #13 #43
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatFLA OffTENN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #51 #55
SuccessSuc #64 #17
ExplosiveExp #93 #58
PPAPPA #72 #13
PowerPwr #41 #48
SP+SP+ #89 #63
Pts POPPO #46 #10
HavocHav #68 #5
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #34 #94
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #9
Run ExplRExp #82 #65
PPAExp #63 #17
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #17
Stuff RateStuff #77 #15
TackleTak -  #58
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatFLA OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #86 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #48
Pass ExplPExl #48 #38
PPAExp #73 #32
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #23
F7 HavocF7 #56 #5
DB HavocDB #90 #39
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Tennessee 3.5 (57.5)
Tennessee won at Florida this year (31-11)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Florida last year (31-11)
Tennessee beat Florida in 2024 (23-17)
Florida beat Tennessee in 2023 (29-16)

  
TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)27240467%356524108.8
Jake Merklinger132454%173207.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop1821076165.950
Star Thomas (Tr)10459675.752
Peyton Lewis7029074.132
Daune Morris3513313.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II621017916.472
Braylon Staley68837612.373
Mike Matthews53813415.362
Ethan Davis21257212.240

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edwin Spillman814332
Jeremiah Telander806120
Edrees Farooq760003
Arion Carter756221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey277540
Caleb Herring156462
Tyre West238411
Daevin Hobbs304322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Redmond4310011
Colton Hood (Tr)505008
Jalen Mcmurray566225

FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway21333763%226416146.7
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
D.J. Lagway7113611.938
KD Daniels2812014.316
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)27406315.057
Hayden Hansen3025428.528
Eugene Wilson2723938.940

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Jordan Castell540020
Aaron Chiles523111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett (Tr)404310
Myles Graham767274
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Myles Graham767274
J'Vari Flowers171004