Tennessee at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo (#15)Tennessee Volunteers at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Gainesville, FL  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 53 - 29 (53 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#37)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
FLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Tennessee -2.5   (SP+ TENN -10)

Projected Score: TENN: 32 - FLA: 30 (62)
TENN Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TENN Travel: 445 miles
Gators (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 27 - 13 (36 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-9
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+9
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-11
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-39.5
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-2.5
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-7

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+8
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+6.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-6
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+7.5
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+2.5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-0.5

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#17 (.43)53% (22)52.751% (35)3.07 (61)21654% (21)3595.22 (26)#73 (.14)43% (89)2947% (102)39% (62)5.13 (124)6411.3
FLA#91 (.13)45% (56)2751% (33)3.41 (32)13742% (77)2533.89 (72)#27 (-)32% (18)12.727% (7)38% (55)2.36 (29)53.321
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense352.752.752.6%5.221295742163595.449%51%51%54%8%.43
FLA Defense312.7932.1%2.361 - - - - - 51%49%27%38%15%-
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense3292942.6%5.131.3 - - - - - 51%49%47%39%17%.14
FLA Offense32735.545.5%3.892233911372534.340%59%51%42%16%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee327:2028.758%0%7.76411.364030
Florida335:2823.340%100%653.3213.30.3030.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense349% (76)51% (35)40215.75.48 (26).26 (38)3.07 (61)76% (51)4% (5)0.94 (73)
FLA Defense351% (78)27% (7) - - - - -.21 (6)2.01 (11)63% (43)8% (96)0.9 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense351% (84)47% (102) - - - - .06 (67)2.69 (58)79% (106)10% (76)0.64 (7)
FLA Offense340% (125)51% (33)32137.34.31 (127).21 (45)3.41 (32)100% (1)10% (88)0.83 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense351% (58)54% (21)2638.7358.79.313.811 (5)2 (60).6 (15)1.6 (47)26% (27)33% (62).58 (28)4% (45)2.5 (15)
FLA Defense349% (68)38% (55) - - - - - - 1 (87).22 (68)1.5 (59)35% (46)20% (27).18 (52)6% (56)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense349% (61)39% (62) - - - - - - 2 (56).23 (74)1.6 (80)28% (114)16% (17).17 (44)8% (30)3 (136)
FLA Offense359% (12)42% (77)27.739.3253.36.49.27 (23)6 (132).13 (107)1.4 (106)30% (60)31% (72).12 (114)6% (92)1.8 (93)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 23.58 #20
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 27.17 #11
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.59 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53% #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #6
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #12
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 23.58   Florida: 20.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 21.8   Florida: 11.6




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 20.295 #18
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Florida's Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 52.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 52.7
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 32
Florida 30


Total Points: 62

Florida Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.5
Defense: 12.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 9

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12Tennessee23Florida17TennesseeTennessee -13.5Florida54.5Under
202309/16Florida29Tennessee16FloridaTennessee -5Florida57.0Under
202209/24Tennessee38Florida33TennesseeTennessee -11Florida62.0Over
202109/25Florida38Tennessee14FloridaFlorida -19Florida65.0Under
202012/05Tennessee19Florida31FloridaFlorida -18.5Tennessee63.0Under
201909/21Florida34Tennessee3FloridaFlorida -12.5Florida49.5Under
201809/22Tennessee21Florida47FloridaFlorida -3.5Florida46.0Over
201709/16Florida26Tennessee20FloridaFlorida -6.5Tennessee50.5Under
201609/24Tennessee38Florida28TennesseeTennessee -8Tennessee42.5Over
201509/26Florida28Tennessee27FloridaFlorida -3Tennessee50.5Over
201410/04Tennessee9Florida10FloridaFlorida -1.5Tennessee0
201309/21Florida31Tennessee17FloridaFlorida -15.5Tennessee0
201209/15Tennessee20Florida37Florida
201109/17Florida33Tennessee23Florida
201009/18Tennessee17Florida31Florida
200909/19Florida23Tennessee13Florida
200809/20Tennessee6Florida30Florida
200709/15Florida59Tennessee20Florida
200609/16Tennessee20Florida21Florida
200509/17Florida16Tennessee7Florida
200409/18Tennessee30Florida28Tennessee
200309/20Florida10Tennessee24Tennessee
200209/21Tennessee13Florida30Florida
200112/01Florida32Tennessee34Tennessee
200009/15Tennessee23Florida27Florida
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1964 Overs
Tennessee666 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 116 - 63 - 53 - 1
Road Teams11 - 146 - 61 - 35 - 3

(#20) Tennessee Info
Power Rating: 23.58 #20
Offense Rating: 27.17 #11
Defense Rating: 3.59 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8 #6
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #12
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #10
Talent Rating: 910.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53% #10
Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.22 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Great Pass Success 54%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.13 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Tennessee has lost 8 straight
Tennessee has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Tennessee Notes
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
(9/1) Starting CB R Gibson out until Oct (arm inj)
(8/30) 500+ yds vs Cuse, Aguilar good on deep shots
(8/17) QB1 Aguliar (App St) wins battle for starter
(7/25) TE Kitselman a top TE, but injured in spring
(7/25) CB duo McCoy/Gibson great, is McCoy healthy?
(5/11) OL exp bottom 20 & 53% comes from portals
(5/6) OT Heard was last in SEC in PFF grading
(5/4) Basically traded Nico for Joey Aguliar (App St QB)

Tennessee Highlights
Tennessee is Undefeated vs Spread

Tennessee has Really Good Running Game (#21)
Tennessee offense is efficent (#22)
Tennessee offense is good in red zone (#26)
Tennessee offense is good on 3rd downs
Tennessee Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Tennessee defense does not give up big plays (#18)
Tennessee Secondary is very good (#30)

Tennessee Deficiencies
Tennessee Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Tennessee Does Not Stuff Runs (#111)
Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#124)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFLATENN
OverallOver#19#13
OffenseOff#44#13
DefenseDef#15#40
Special TeamsST#61#52
PassingPass#50#7
RushingRush#76#10
Run BlockRBLK#22#64
Pass BlockPBLK#4#35
Route RunningWR Rt#57#10
TacklingTkl#14#35
Run DefenseR Def#3#55
Pass Rush DefPRush#80#7
Coverage DefCov#35#67

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Florida last year (23-17)
Florida beat Tennessee in 2023 (29-16)
Tennessee beat Florida in 2022 (38-33)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TENN | FLA
Depth Chart: TENN | FLA
Rosters: TENN | FLA
(#18) Florida Info
Power Rating: 20.295 #18
Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 32%
Good in Scoring Position 2.36 PPO
Great Run Def Success 27%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Florida has lost 9 straight
Florida has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida Notes
(9/7) Allowed 18 TFL through two games, Off a mess
(8/20) QB2 uncertain, but massive drop off either way
(8/13) Lagway health an issue, missing camp w/ others.
(6/30) DT Banks game wrecker, top 10 PFF w/ DE Sapp
(6/6) DL a top 5 unit via PFF, front line + depth
(6/6) OL 2 starters, 2 w/ exp. PFF rates at top 5 OL
(5/23) Safety duo of Thorton & Castell a top unit in CFB
(5/6) Proj starting CB D Johnson arrested (serious)
(5/1) Fr WR D Wilson dominated spring ball, will play
(4/4) OT Jake Slaughter the top T via PFF

Florida Highlights
Florida has a really good defense (#18)
Florida defense is really good in red zone (#29)
Florida has a good run defense (#7)
Florida Defensive Line is very good (#11)

Florida Deficiencies
Florida has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Florida throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Florida offense is not Explosive (#103)
Florida does not Sack the QB (#130)


  
Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)639566%906929.5
Jake Merklinger91464%118208.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)3322136.727
DeSean Bishop2920417.050
Peyton Lewis217623.68
Daune Morris115014.510
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II20364518.272
Braylon Staley18231212.873
Mike Matthews13199115.353
Miles Kitselman87919.918

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter262100
Jalen Mcmurray171101
Andre Turrentine150000
Edrees Farooq140002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Josephs123201
Caleb Herring54210
Tyre West101110
Charles House III22100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Hood (Tr)110005
Ty Redmond90003
Edrees Farooq140002

Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway7110071%629566.3
Tramell Jones Jr.121867%131207.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh3724316.626
Ja'Kobi Jackson205903.013
D.J. Lagway183101.710
Anthony Rubio52705.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III16197012.341
Hayden Hansen1311719.028
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)771110.118
Eugene Wilson146624.732

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham172022
Jaden Robinson132001
Brendan Bett (Tr)121010
George Gumbs103020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp82100
Myles Graham172022
Titus Bullard10000
Javion Toombs20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton90013
Myles Graham172022
Devin Moore60002