LSU at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
LSU logo LSU Tigers vs Houston Cougars(#21)Houston logo
Saturday, December 27th 2025 (9:15 PM EST)
Houston -1.5 (43.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Houston 38 - LSU: 35  (Kinder's Texas Bowl)

 
Tigers (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Frank Wilson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 5.3 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 5) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Game in Dome
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: LSU -7.5  (SP+ LSU -2)

Projected Score: LSU: 26 - HOU: 18 (44)
HOU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 254 miles
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
LSU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 LSU at Clemson+3.557.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-36.549.5W 23 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 LSU vs Florida-5.547.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 9/20 LSU vs SE Louisiana-49.060.0W 56 - 10ON
Sat 9/27 LSU at Ole Miss+2.557.5L 19 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 LSU vs South Carolina-8.544.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 LSU at Vanderbilt+1.548.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/25 LSU vs Texas A&M+1.550.5L 25 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 LSU at Alabama+10.549.5L 9 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 LSU vs Arkansas-4.058.5W 23 - 22UN
Sat 11/22 LSU vs Western Kentucky-24.552.0W 13 - 10UN
Sat 11/29 LSU at Oklahoma+11.536.5L 13 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 LSU vs Houston+1.543.5L 35 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.547.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7.046.5W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-13.548.5L 35 - 45ON
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+1.555.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+2.557.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 12/27 Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#125 (.04)38% (111)22.837% (122)2.46 (132)9940% (90)2093.2 (115)#20 (.06)38% (23)19.839% (29)37% (31)2.98 (17)5211.6
HOU#106 (.1)41% (87)29.140% (100)2.62 (122)16343% (52)1993.39 (101)#37 (.09)41% (60)22.846% (106)38% (34)3.77 (76)37.81.11.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Offense1322.816.438.4%3.2117308992093.743%56%37%40%18%.04
HOU Defense1322.824.241.2%3.771.3 - - - - - 49%48%46%38%16%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Defense1319.820.437.7%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%52%39%37%18%.06
HOU Offense1329.125.741.3%3.391.1203611631994.257%41%40%43%14%.1

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
LSU1328:3617.535%58%6.35211.64.82.1129.6
Houston1329:2019.640%59%4.337.81.11.34.21.8230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Offense1343% (118)37% (122)26.898.83.79 (107)- (124)2.46 (132)66% (105)11% (111)0.9 (93)
HOU Defense1349% (59)46% (106) - - - - .05 (42)2.72 (34)79% (116)9% (97)0.77 (2)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Defense1347% (33)39% (29) - - - - .01 (21)2.6 (18)64% (23)9% (83)0.92 (48)
HOU Offense1357% (17)40% (100)38.5162.74.216 (78)-.04 (133)2.62 (122)74% (58)9% (43)0.8 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Offense1356% (20)40% (90)21.232.12096.59.917 (50)7 (60).16 (112)1.4 (128)36% (129)30% (79).21 (99)7% (103)1.9 (93)
HOU Defense1348% (66)38% (34) - - - - - - 12 (38).19 (46)1.4 (23)32% (63)24% (9).21 (34)7% (20)2.1 (108)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Defense1352% (115)37% (31) - - - - - - 17 (22).14 (26)1.6 (78)35% (23)27% (35).2 (29)9% (6)2 (70)
HOU Offense1341% (119)43% (52)16.526.2198.77.612.122 (50)10 (20).33 (44)1.8 (12)30% (50)25% (117).18 (115)5% (39)2 (65)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.73  #31
LSU's Offense Rating: 6.88  #80
LSU's Defense Rating: -8.85  #7
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71%  #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 5.3
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #33
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #90
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.0  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 15.73   Houston: 4.985

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 9.6   Houston: 7.6




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 4.985  #60
Houston's Offense Rating: 6.33  #84
Houston's Defense Rating: 3.96  #41
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6  #42
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #53
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
LSU 26
Houston 18


Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Houston 22
LSU 21

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Houston 24
LSU 22

Total Points: 46
Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/27Houston38LSU35Houston -1.5Houston43.5Over
200009/08LSU28Houston13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston111 Overs
LSU100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1

LSU Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Texas Bowl LSU vs Houston+1.543.5L 35 - 38
2024Texas Bowl LSU vs Baylor+3.062.5W 44 - 31
2023Reliaquest Bowl LSU vs Wisconsin-9.559.5W 35 - 31
2022Citrus Bowl LSU vs Purdue-15.054.0W 63 - 7
2021Texas Bowl LSU vs Kansas State+9.547.0L 20 - 42
2019CFP Nat'l Title LSU vs Clemson-5.067.0W 42 - 25
2019CFP Semifinal LSU vs Oklahoma-13.075.0W 63 - 28
Houston Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Texas Bowl Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35
2022Independence Bowl Houston vs Louisiana-5.556.5W 23 - 16
2021Birmingham Bowl Houston vs Auburn+2.051.5W 17 - 13
2020Mexico Bowl Houston vs Hawai'i-7.060.5L 14 - 28
  
(#31) LSU at (#60) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLSUHOU
Power RatePwr #31 #60
SP+SP+ #33 #42
Perf GradeGrade #83 #49
OffenseOff #102 #77
DefenseDef #39 #27
Spec TeamsST #65 #39
TalentTal #8 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #4 #46
LSU Notes
(12/6) DC Blake Baker will stay on under Kiffin
(12/1) Hired Lane Kiffin, Weis will be OC, more to come
(11/26) Nussmeier doubtful vs OU, Van Buren gets 3rd start
(10/27) OC Joe Sloan fired, Alex Atkins (TE/RGC) int.
(10/26) Brian Kelly fired, AHS Frank Wilson interim
(10/25) OTs exposed vs A&M. 2 straight L's, Off sucks
(10/24) Have real issues at LT. May play BU C Chester, woof
(10/22) LB Whit Weeks out for A&M game (ankle)
(10/20) LT Tyree Adams out multiple games (A&M/Bama)
(10/18) Def was bad vs Vandy, Run Off bad, Nuss had no time
(10/18) Kelly now 11-11 on the road after Vandy loss.
(10/12) Cannot score +20 pts vs FBS teams, Def really good
LSU Injury Report
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
LSU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffHOU Def
Perf GradePerf #102 #27
SuccessSuc #111 #60
ExplosiveExp #114 #4
PPAPPA #125 #37
PowerPwr #80 #41
SP+SP+ #90 #41
Pts POPPO #115 #76
HavocHav #111 #60
LSU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #121 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #106
Run ExplRExp #93 #2
PPAExp #124 #42
Run BlockR Blk #134 -
OL YdsOLY #132 #34
Stuff RateStuff #131 #67
TackleTak -  #26
LSU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #39 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #34
Pass ExplPExl #128 #23
PPAExp #112 #46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #60 #125
F7 HavocF7 #111 #97
DB HavocDB #103 #20
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffLSU Def
Perf GradePerf #77 #39
SuccessSuc #87 #23
ExplosiveExp #78 #66
PPAPPA #106 #20
PowerPwr #84 #7
SP+SP+ #53 #9
Pts POPPO #101 #17
HavocHav #43 #26
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #50 #64
Run SuccessRSuc #100 #29
Run ExplRExp #128 #48
PPAExp #133 #21
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #122 #18
Stuff RateStuff #92 #10
TackleTak -  #86
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #116 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #52 #31
Pass ExplPExl #12 #78
PPAExp #44 #26
Pass Block/RushP Blk #131 #96
F7 HavocF7 #43 #83
DB HavocDB #39 #6
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in NRG Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Houston -1.5 (43.5)
Houston won vs LSU this year (38-35)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
LSU's OC Alex Atkins (Int) (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier19428867%19271256.7
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham11150534.551
Harlem Berry10449124.743
Ju'Juan Johnson4115523.856
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)4812912.735
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Barion Brown (Tr)53532110.041
Zavion Thomas41488411.962
Trey'Dez Green33433713.142
Aaron Anderson33398012.139

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davhon Keys894162
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)881004
West Weeks768311
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)702012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins558462
West Weeks768311
DJ Pickett353203
Damien Shanklin22200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)4500111
P.J. Woodland382128
Patrick Payton (Tr)335126

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23135565%27112597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)669721214.764
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005