LSU at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, December 27th 2025 (9:15 PM EST)
Houston -1.5 (43.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Houston 38 - LSU: 35 (Kinder's Texas Bowl)

Tigers (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (28 - 11)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 5.3 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: LSU -7.5 (SP+ LSU -3)
Projected Score: LSU: 26 - HOU: 19 (45)
HOU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 258 miles

Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
LSU Players
HOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

LSU's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	LSU at Clemson	+3.5	57.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/6	LSU vs Louisiana Tech	-36.5	49.5	W 23 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/13	LSU vs Florida	-5.5	47.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/20	LSU vs SE Louisiana	-49.0	60.0	W 56 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/27	LSU at Ole Miss	+2.5	57.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	LSU vs South Carolina	-8.5	44.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/18	LSU at Vanderbilt	+1.5	48.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	+1.5	50.5	L 25 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	LSU at Alabama	+10.5	49.5	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/15	LSU vs Arkansas	-4.0	58.5	W 23 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/22	LSU vs Western Kentucky	-24.5	52.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/29	LSU at Oklahoma	+11.5	36.5	L 13 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/27	LSU vs Houston	+1.5	43.5	L 35 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Houston vs Stephen F. Austin	-24.5	54.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Houston at Rice	-13.5	38.5	W 35 - 9	O	Y
Fri 9/12	Houston vs Colorado	-4.0	45.5	W 36 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26	Houston at Oregon State	-11.5	48.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/4	Houston vs Texas Tech	+13.5	51.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/11	Houston at Oklahoma State	-14.5	47.5	W 39 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Houston vs Arizona	+1.5	47.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Houston at Arizona State	+7.0	46.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Houston vs West Virginia	-13.5	48.5	L 35 - 45	O	N
Fri 11/7	Houston at UCF	+1.5	47.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Houston vs TCU	+1.5	55.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/29	Houston at Baylor	+2.5	57.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 12/27	Houston vs LSU	-1.5	43.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)	22.8	42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)	19.8	41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)	29.1	35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)	22.8	40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Offense	13	22.8	16.4	44.9%	3.99	1.2	22	399	108	291	4.1	39%	61%	42%	47%	13%	.25
HOU Defense	12	22.8	24.2	39.6%	3.52	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Defense	13	19.8	20.4	41.1%	3.44	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	41%	18%	.21
HOU Offense	12	29.1	25.7	35.3%	2.57	2.3	15	289	137	153	3.9	57%	42%	35%	37%	21%	-

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
LSU	13	29:47	22.1	50%	50%	5.8	45.7	1.2	1	5.1	2.5	1	27.9
Houston	12	30:10	15.1	28%	38%	5.5	51.9	2.3	1.6	5.6	1.8	2	27.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Offense	13	39% (128)	42% (89)	26.4	108.2	4.1	14 (98)	.12 (79)	2.92 (90)	82% (13)	6% (5)	0.89 (103)
HOU Defense	12	51% (76)	40% (41)	-	-	-	-	.06 (34)	2.8 (35)	69% (41)	12% (27)	1 (75)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Defense	13	51% (67)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.18 (97)	2.94 (55)	84% (125)	12% (29)	1.23 (132)
HOU Offense	12	57% (22)	35% (130)	35.5	136.6	3.9	9 (125)	(122)	2.52 (129)	64% (119)	16% (132)	1.01 (49)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Offense	13	61% (7)	47% (24)	24.5	38.4	290.8	7.6	11.9	26 (26)	11 (72)	.33 (37)	1.5 (96)	33% (89)	37% (16)	.42 (28)	7% (97)	2 (84)
HOU Defense	12	49% (62)	39% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.23 (68)	1.7 (95)	33% (54)	32% (96)	.32 (79)	6% (71)	2 (55)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Defense	13	49% (69)	41% (73)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.25 (75)	1.6 (68)	35% (28)	31% (76)	.36 (93)	7% (41)	2.2 (104)
HOU Offense	12	42% (114)	37% (115)	15.2	23.3	152.7	6.5	10.1	9 (128)	17 (127)	.02 (131)	1.4 (122)	35% (120)	20% (133)	-.04 (134)	5% (45)	1.7 (130)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.48 #20
LSU's Offense Rating: 14.53 #60
LSU's Defense Rating: -0.95 #8
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71% #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 5.3
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #32
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #75
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 15.48 Houston: 5.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 10.3 Houston: 7.4

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 5.64 #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84 #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96 #52
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 26
Houston 19

Projected Total Points: 45

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/27	Houston	38	LSU	35	Houston -1.5	Houston	43.5	Over
2000	09/08	LSU	28	Houston	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Houston	1	1	1 Overs
LSU	1	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

LSU Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Texas Bowl	LSU vs Houston	+1.5	43.5	L 35 - 38
2024	Texas Bowl	LSU vs Baylor	+3.0	62.5	W 44 - 31
2023	Reliaquest Bowl	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31
2022	Citrus Bowl	LSU vs Purdue	-15.0	54.0	W 63 - 7
2021	Texas Bowl	LSU vs Kansas State	+9.5	47.0	L 20 - 42
2019	CFP Nat'l Title	LSU vs Clemson	-5.0	67.0	W 42 - 25
2019	CFP Semifinal	LSU vs Oklahoma	-13.0	75.0	W 63 - 28

Houston Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Texas Bowl	Houston vs LSU	-1.5	43.5	W 38 - 35
2022	Independence Bowl	Houston vs Louisiana	-5.5	56.5	W 23 - 16
2021	Birmingham Bowl	Houston vs Auburn	+2.0	51.5	W 17 - 13
2020	Mexico Bowl	Houston vs Hawai'i	-7.0	60.5	L 14 - 28

(#20) LSU at (#53) HOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LSU	HOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#20	#53
SP+SP+	#32	#40
Perf GradeGrade	#63	#46
OffenseOff	#96	#73
DefenseDef	#30	#21
Spec TeamsST	#65	#83
TalentTal	#8	#58
Blue ChipsBC%	#4	#46

LSU Notes(12/6) DC Blake Baker will stay on under Kiffin
(12/1) Hired Lane Kiffin, Weis will be OC, more to come
(11/26) Nussmeier doubtful vs OU, Van Buren gets 3rd start
(10/27) OC Joe Sloan fired, Alex Atkins (TE/RGC) int.
(10/26) Brian Kelly fired, AHS Frank Wilson interim
(10/25) OTs exposed vs A&M. 2 straight L's, Off sucks
(10/24) Have real issues at LT. May play BU C Chester, woof
(10/22) LB Whit Weeks out for A&M game (ankle)
(10/20) LT Tyree Adams out multiple games (A&M/Bama)
(10/18) Def was bad vs Vandy, Run Off bad, Nuss had no time
(10/18) Kelly now 11-11 on the road after Vandy loss.
(10/12) Cannot score +20 pts vs FBS teams, Def really good
LSU Injury Report

Houston Notes(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report

LSU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	HOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#21
SuccessSuc	#38	#41
ExplosiveExp	#57	#94
PPAPPA	#30	#51
PowerPwr	#60	#52
SP+SP+	#75	#46
Pts POPPO	#60	#41
HavocHav	#26	#46

LSU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#118	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#41
Run ExplRExp	#103	#75
PPAExp	#79	#34
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	#90	#35
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#38
TackleTak	-	#18

LSU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#95
PPAExp	#37	#68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#71	#116
F7 HavocF7	#5	#27
DB HavocDB	#97	#71

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	LSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#73	#30
SuccessSuc	#129	#60
ExplosiveExp	#109	#118
PPAPPA	#133	#92
PowerPwr	#57	#8
SP+SP+	#44	#11
Pts POPPO	#134	#30
HavocHav	#130	#30

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#50	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	#54
Run ExplRExp	#49	#132
PPAExp	#122	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#116	#50
TackleTak	-	#72

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#104	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#115	#73
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#68
PPAExp	#131	#75
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#125	#78
F7 HavocF7	#132	#29
DB HavocDB	#45	#41

Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in NRG Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Houston -1.5 (43.5)
Houston won vs LSU this year (38-35)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat LSU last year (38-35)

LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Nussmeier	194	288	67%	1927	12	5	6.7
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)	94	151	62%	1010	8	2	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Durham	111	505	3	4.5	51
Harlem Berry	104	491	2	4.7	43
Ju'Juan Johnson	41	155	2	3.8	56
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)	48	129	1	2.7	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Barion Brown (Tr)	53	532	1	10.0	41
Zavion Thomas	41	488	4	11.9	62
Trey'Dez Green	33	433	7	13.1	42
Aaron Anderson	33	398	0	12.1	39

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davhon Keys	89	4	1	6	2
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)	88	1	0	0	4
West Weeks	76	8	3	1	1
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)	70	2	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harold Perkins	55	8	4	6	2
West Weeks	76	8	3	1	1
DJ Pickett	35	3	2	0	3
Damien Shanklin	2	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)	45	0	0	1	11
P.J. Woodland	38	2	1	2	8
Patrick Payton (Tr)	33	5	1	2	6

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)	232	356	65%	2705	25	9	7.6
Zeon Chriss	10	21	48%	108	1	1	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors (Tr)	200	977	6	4.9	54
Conner Weigman (Tr)	170	703	11	4.1	50
DJ Butler	68	301	0	4.4	15
Stacy Sneed	37	130	0	3.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)	67	966	12	14.4	64
Tanner Koziol (Tr)	74	727	6	9.8	50
Stephon Johnson Jr.	13	275	2	21.2	74
Dean Connors (Tr)	34	254	3	7.5	33

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Garner	76	4	2	4	2
Carlos Allen	72	8	2	0	3
Kentrell Webb	71	3	0	0	4
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	64	12	7	9	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	64	12	7	9	5
Brandon Mack	32	6	5	1	0
Corey Platt Jr.	41	5	3	2	2
Wrook Brown (Tr)	49	6	3	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Latrell McCutchin	52	3	1	8
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)	19	0	0	7
Will James (Tr)	39	4	0	5