Texas Tech at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas Tech logo (#11)Texas Tech Red Raiders at Houston CougarsHouston logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -13.5 (51.5) (-520)  Open: -8.5
Texas Tech 35 - Houston: 11  (Big 12)

 
Red Raiders (6 - 0) (5 - 1 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (23 - 15)
Avg Score : 48 - 11 (35 - 11 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.7 - 0.3 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
Wind: 12.4 MPH
TTU coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas Tech -20.5  (SP+ TTU -17)

Projected Score: TTU: 35 - HOU: 15 (50)
TTU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
TTU Travel: 467 miles
Cougars (5 - 1) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (25 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#46)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
 
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.563.5W 67 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.560.0W 62 - 14ON
Sat 9/13 Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.561.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Texas Tech at Utah+3.558.5W 34 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas Tech at Houston-13.551.5W 35 - 11UY
Sat 10/11 Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.558.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Texas Tech at Arizona State-9.551.5
Sat 10/25 Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-41.5
Sat 11/1 Texas Tech at Kansas State-19.5
Sat 11/8 Texas Tech vs BYU-14
Sat 11/15 Texas Tech vs UCF-26.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech at West Virginia-28

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.545.5
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-10
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+7.5
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+7.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#10 (.37)49% (24)47.550% (19)2.72 (102)23647% (32)3234.43 (42)#1 (-.1)30% (3)1130% (4)30% (6)2.71 (13)77.31.22.2
HOU#114 (.09)36% (127)29.235% (129)2.44 (127)16037% (117)2193.62 (96)#26 (.07)36% (21)17.542% (77)31% (9)4.09 (92)51.20.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)45% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)44% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Offense647.534.548.7%4.431.227559236323648%52%50%47%13%.37
HOU Defense617.518.336.4%4.091.3 - - - - - 53%46%42%31%17%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Defense61110.530%2.712.2 - - - - - 41%59%30%30%22%-.1
HOU Offense629.224.736.1%3.620.718380160219457%43%35%37%14%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas Tech630:2426.552%60%8.877.31.22.273.5135.5
Houston630:1918.239%50%5.851.20.71.34.52.2132.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Offense648% (84)50% (19)39235.5616 (20).23 (27)2.72 (102)85% (12)8% (26)0.96 (68)
HOU Defense653% (98)42% (77) - - - - .03 (34)2.38 (14)90% (133)10% (76)0.81 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Defense641% (5)30% (4) - - - - -.18 (1)2.11 (3)58% (14)14% (10)0.62 (1)
HOU Offense657% (28)35% (129)39.8160.349 (77)-.09 (133)2.44 (127)63% (114)8% (43)0.9 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Offense652% (51)47% (32)24.235.5323.39.113.418 (4)5 (77).5 (13)1.7 (22)30% (56)37% (25).64 (6)5% (42)2.4 (9)
HOU Defense646% (33)31% (9) - - - - - - 6 (29).14 (35)1.5 (43)33% (49)19% (6).13 (25)7% (40)1.9 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Defense659% (132)30% (6) - - - - - - 8 (12)-.04 (5)1.4 (23)40% (3)18% (2)-.02 (2)8% (15)2 (79)
HOU Offense643% (109)37% (117)16.728219.27.813.29 (73)3 (26).33 (45)1.9 (6)33% (103)25% (110).23 (102)6% (83)2.2 (36)

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 31.97  #6
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 22.73  #24
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: -11.15  #4
2025 Talent Rating: 886.00  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 20%  #26
Texas Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 11.7 - 0.3
Texas Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6  #3
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #2
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7  #17

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 31.97   Houston: 7.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 24.6   Houston: 7.5




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 7.87  #65
Houston's Offense Rating: 4.32  #108
Houston's Defense Rating: 1.08  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5  #45
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #71
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 47.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.5
Defense: 11 PPG
Defense on Road: 10.5

Texas Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 35
Houston 15


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 27
Houston 21

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 30
Houston 19

Total Points: 49
Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 17.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.3

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Houston11Texas Tech35Texas Tech -13.5Texas Tech51.5Under
202309/30Texas Tech49Houston28Texas Tech -8.5Texas Tech52.0Over
202209/10Texas Tech33Houston30Texas Tech -3.5Houston62.5Over
202109/04Houston21Texas Tech38Houston -2.5Texas Tech63.0Under
201809/15Texas Tech63Houston49Texas Tech -1Texas Tech68.0Over
201709/23Houston24Texas Tech27Houston -7Texas Tech68.0Under
201011/27Texas Tech35Houston20
200909/26Houston29Texas Tech28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston113 Overs
Texas Tech753 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 32 - 42 - 30 - 1
Road Teams3 - 54 - 21 - 03 - 2

(#6) TTU at (#65) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTTUHOU
Power RatePwr #6 #65
SP+SP+ #3 #45
Perf GradeGrade #2 #56
OffenseOff #8 #115
DefenseDef #1 #13
Spec TeamsST #14 #5
TalentTal #28 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #26 #46

Texas Tech Notes
(10/12) QB Morton (leg) again vs Kansas, sounds OK though
(9/23) QB Will Hammond looked better than Morton
(9/22) Has 3 guys in top 15 in QB hurries thru 4 games
(9/20) Class of B12, killed Utah, Def best in conference
(8/18) #1 RB Q Joyner torn ACL, out for the season
(6/14) WR #1 Douglas, 2 Eakin, 3 Virgil missed spring
(5/23) T Tech was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/23) DL starters could dominate B12, depth good
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp but 46% comes from portals
(4/19) QB Morton a top B12 QB, missed spring (inj)
(4/4) DE Bailey (Stan)/DT G-Howard (N Ill) huge adds

Houston Notes
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key
Texas Tech on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
TTU OffHOU Def
Perf GradePerf #8 #13
SuccessSuc #24 #21
ExplosiveExp #33 #7
PPAPPA #10 #26
PowerPwr #24 #33
SP+SP+ #2 #25
Pts POPPO #42 #92
HavocHav #26 #56
Texas Tech Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
TTU OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #8 #25
Run SuccessRSuc #19 #77
Run ExplRExp #68 #16
PPAExp #27 #34
Run BlockR Blk #37 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #14
Stuff RateStuff #52 #80
TackleTak -  #41
Texas Tech Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
TTU OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #6 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #9
Pass ExplPExl #22 #43
PPAExp #13 #35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #14 #104
F7 HavocF7 #26 #76
DB HavocDB #42 #40
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatHOU OffTTU Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #1
SuccessSuc #127 #3
ExplosiveExp #21 #10
PPAPPA #114 #1
PowerPwr #108 #4
SP+SP+ #71 #17
Pts POPPO #96 #13
HavocHav #55 #6
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
HOU OffTTU Def
Run GameRun #97 #1
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #4
Run ExplRExp #98 #1
PPAExp #133 #1
Run BlockR Blk #64 -
OL YdsOLY #127 #3
Stuff RateStuff #111 #36
TackleTak -  #6
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatHOU OffTTU Def
Pass GamePass #115 #3
Pass SuccessPSuc #117 #6
Pass ExplPExl #6 #23
PPAExp #45 #5
Pass Block/RushP Blk #134 #1
F7 HavocF7 #43 #10
DB HavocDB #83 #15
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TTU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 85° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Texas Tech 13.5 (51.5)
Texas Tech won at Houston this year (35-11)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat Houston in 2023 (49-28)
Texas Tech beat Houston in 2022 (33-30)

  
TTU's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton10415268%15011339.9
Will Hammond375666%399427.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Dickey9360586.571
J'Koby Williams6735645.323
Will Hammond2423149.664
Adam Hill2420708.636
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Douglas23379116.561
Coy Eakin25357314.342
Terrance Carter (Tr)23297512.950
Reginald Virgil23286412.435

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Rodriguez445113
John Curry341011
Ben Roberts310024
Cole Wisniewski (Tr)252101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Bailey (Tr)1710970
Romello Height (Tr)145570
Anthony Holmes Jr. (Tr)216341
Jacob Rodriguez445113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Roberts310024
Jacob Rodriguez445113
Dontae Balfour (Tr)141003

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)9114862%1216828.2
Zeon Chriss92045%99115.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)9543844.654
Conner Weigman (Tr)5114852.949
Stacy Sneed3313003.916
Zeon Chriss127906.621
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)23441219.264
Tanner Koziol (Tr)30310210.350
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)137515.816

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner423221
Carlos Allen413002
Kentrell Webb302000
Sione Fotu (Tr)301100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Platt Jr.213310
Jalen Garner423221
Brandon Mack183210
Eddie Walls III (Tr)235233
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)100006
Eddie Walls III (Tr)235233
Marc Stampley II (Tr)212102