Arkansas at LSU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas logo Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU TigersLSU logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:45 PM EST)
LSU -4 (58.5) (-185)  Open: -6.5
LSU 23 - Arkansas: 22  (SEC)

 
Razorbacks (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Bobby Petrino (Int) (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
ARK coming off BYE
Our Line: LSU -7.5  (SP+ LSU -5)

Projected Score: ARK: 25 - LSU: 33 (58)
LSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ARK Travel: 427 miles
Tigers (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Frank Wilson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 5.3 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-45.562.5W 52 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23.562.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+3.560.5L 35 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-7.059.5L 31 - 32ON
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+5.564.5L 13 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+10.068.5L 31 - 34UY
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+7.557.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn-2.555.5L 24 - 33ON
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-5.566.5L 35 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+4.058.5L 22 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+10.557.5L 37 - 52ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+4.554.5L 17 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
LSU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 LSU at Clemson+3.557.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-36.549.5W 23 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 LSU vs Florida-5.547.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 9/20 LSU vs SE Louisiana-49.060.0W 56 - 10ON
Sat 9/27 LSU at Ole Miss+2.557.5L 19 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 LSU vs South Carolina-8.544.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 LSU at Vanderbilt+1.548.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/25 LSU vs Texas A&M+1.550.5L 25 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 LSU at Alabama+10.549.5L 9 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 LSU vs Arkansas-4.058.5W 23 - 22UN
Sat 11/22 LSU vs Western Kentucky-24.552.0W 13 - 10UN
Sat 11/29 LSU at Oklahoma+11.536.5L 13 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 LSU vs Houston+1.543.5L 35 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#14 (.31)49% (12)32.954% (1)3.43 (6)19245% (37)2634.2 (31)#127 (.27)47% (127)33.850% (132)46% (118)4.21 (119)671.70.8
LSU#125 (.04)38% (111)22.837% (122)2.46 (132)9940% (90)2093.2 (115)#20 (.06)38% (23)19.839% (29)37% (31)2.98 (17)5211.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)52% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)39% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Offense1232.931.248.7%4.21.7234551922635.748%51%54%45%17%.31
LSU Defense1319.816.937.7%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%52%39%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Defense1233.836.447.3%4.210.8 - - - - - 54%44%50%46%15%.27
LSU Offense1322.825.738.4%3.2117308992093.743%56%37%40%18%.04

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas1229:0123.347%53%7.8671.70.85.41.8227.4
LSU1328:3617.535%58%6.35211.64.82.1129.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Offense1248% (80)54% (1)33.6192.25.725 (30).3 (5)3.43 (6)65% (109)10% (77)1.08 (25)
LSU Defense1347% (33)39% (29) - - - - .01 (21)2.6 (18)64% (23)9% (83)0.92 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Defense1254% (118)50% (132) - - - - .21 (125)3.05 (100)71% (66)9% (89)0.95 (61)
LSU Offense1343% (118)37% (122)26.898.83.79 (107)- (124)2.46 (132)66% (105)11% (111)0.9 (93)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Offense1251% (54)45% (37)19.331.8262.98.313.722 (8)11 (60).37 (30)1.7 (21)31% (59)40% (4).58 (5)7% (114)2.3 (4)
LSU Defense1352% (115)37% (31) - - - - - - 17 (22).14 (26)1.6 (78)35% (23)27% (35).2 (29)9% (6)2 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Defense1244% (15)46% (118) - - - - - - 6 (75).44 (132)1.7 (122)31% (84)36% (131).44 (127)6% (54)2.1 (106)
LSU Offense1356% (20)40% (90)21.232.12096.59.917 (50)7 (60).16 (112)1.4 (128)36% (129)30% (79).21 (99)7% (103)1.9 (93)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 10.26  #41
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 22.68  #13
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 12.42  #98
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9  #52
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #16
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #99

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 10.26   LSU: 15.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 4.9   LSU: 9.6




LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.165  #31
LSU's Offense Rating: 6.88  #80
LSU's Defense Rating: -8.85  #7
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71  #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 5.3
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #33
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #90
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.0  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.4

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
LSU 33
Arkansas 25


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas 30
LSU 28

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
LSU 30
Arkansas 25

Total Points: 55
LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15LSU23Arkansas22LSU -4Arkansas58.5Under
202410/19Arkansas10LSU34LSU -3LSU57.0Under
202309/23LSU34Arkansas31LSU -17.5Arkansas55.0Over
202211/12Arkansas10LSU13LSU -5Arkansas59.0Under
202111/13LSU13Arkansas16Arkansas -3NA59.5Under
202011/21Arkansas24LSU27LSU -1.5LSU64.5Under
201911/23LSU56Arkansas20LSU -42Arkansas69.5Over
201811/10Arkansas17LSU24LSU -12.5Arkansas49.5Under
201711/11LSU33Arkansas10LSU -19LSU54.5Under
201611/12Arkansas10LSU38LSU -7LSU46.5Over
201511/14LSU14Arkansas31LSU -9Arkansas54.0Under
201411/15Arkansas17LSU0Arkansas -1.5Arkansas0
201311/29LSU31Arkansas27LSU -24.5Arkansas0
201211/23Arkansas13LSU20
201111/25LSU41Arkansas17
201011/27Arkansas31LSU23
200911/28LSU33Arkansas30
200811/28Arkansas31LSU30
200711/23LSU48Arkansas50
200611/24Arkansas26LSU31
200511/25LSU19Arkansas17
200411/26Arkansas14LSU43
200311/28LSU55Arkansas24
200111/23LSU41Arkansas38
200011/23Arkansas14LSU3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
LSU1843 Overs
Arkansas788 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 114 - 82 - 52 - 3
Road Teams11 - 148 - 43 - 25 - 2

(#41) ARK at (#31) LSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARKLSU
Power RatePwr #41 #31
SP+SP+ #52 #33
Perf GradeGrade #79 #83
OffenseOff #45 #102
DefenseDef #116 #39
Spec TeamsST #99 #65
TalentTal #48 #8
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #4
Arkansas Notes
(11/30) Hired Ryan Silverfield (Memphis). Meh hire IMO
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off great
(10/18) Off great vs A&M, Def torched as usual. 9 flags hurt
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
Arkansas Injury Report
LSU Notes
(12/6) DC Blake Baker will stay on under Kiffin
(12/1) Hired Lane Kiffin, Weis will be OC, more to come
(11/26) Nussmeier doubtful vs OU, Van Buren gets 3rd start
(10/27) OC Joe Sloan fired, Alex Atkins (TE/RGC) int.
(10/26) Brian Kelly fired, AHS Frank Wilson interim
(10/25) OTs exposed vs A&M. 2 straight L's, Off sucks
(10/24) Have real issues at LT. May play BU C Chester, woof
(10/22) LB Whit Weeks out for A&M game (ankle)
(10/20) LT Tyree Adams out multiple games (A&M/Bama)
(10/18) Def was bad vs Vandy, Run Off bad, Nuss had no time
(10/18) Kelly now 11-11 on the road after Vandy loss.
(10/12) Cannot score +20 pts vs FBS teams, Def really good
LSU Injury Report
Arkansas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffLSU Def
Perf GradePerf #45 #39
SuccessSuc #12 #23
ExplosiveExp #15 #66
PPAPPA #14 #20
PowerPwr #13 #7
SP+SP+ #16 #9
Pts POPPO #31 #17
HavocHav #101 #26
Arkansas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #2 #64
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #29
Run ExplRExp #25 #48
PPAExp #5 #21
Run BlockR Blk #81 -
OL YdsOLY #6 #18
Stuff RateStuff #94 #10
TackleTak -  #86
Arkansas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #63 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #37 #31
Pass ExplPExl #21 #78
PPAExp #30 #26
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #72 #96
F7 HavocF7 #77 #83
DB HavocDB #114 #6
LSU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLSU OffARK Def
Perf GradePerf #102 #116
SuccessSuc #111 #127
ExplosiveExp #114 #77
PPAPPA #125 #127
PowerPwr #80 #98
SP+SP+ #90 #99
Pts POPPO #115 #119
HavocHav #111 #73
LSU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffARK Def
Run GameRun #121 #81
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #132
Run ExplRExp #93 #61
PPAExp #124 #125
Run BlockR Blk #134 -
OL YdsOLY #132 #100
Stuff RateStuff #131 #63
TackleTak -  #22
LSU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLSU OffARK Def
Pass GamePass #39 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #118
Pass ExplPExl #128 #122
PPAExp #112 #132
Pass Block/RushP Blk #60 #77
F7 HavocF7 #111 #89
DB HavocDB #103 #54
Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 79° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 12
LSU -4.0 (58.5)
LSU won vs Arkansas this year (23-22)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Arkansas last year (34-10)
LSU beat Arkansas in 2023 (34-31)
LSU beat Arkansas in 2022 (13-10)

  
ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green19832661%271419118.3
KJ Jackson335461%441308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington168106886.457
Taylen Green13877985.664
Braylen Russell5528655.223
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)65409.041
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)57760513.336
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)41592314.458
Rohan Jones (Tr)19519427.362
CJ Brown28319311.426

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Chris Wilson (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Stephen Dix Jr.794100
Larry Worth641001
Caleb Wooden (Tr)593013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.4316860
Phillip Lee (Tr)316440
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Bradley Shaw505211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kani Walker (Tr)5231011
Julian Neal (Tr)5520010
Jordan Young (Tr)280016

LSU's OC Alex Atkins (Int) (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier19428867%19271256.7
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham11150534.551
Harlem Berry10449124.743
Ju'Juan Johnson4115523.856
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)4812912.735
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Barion Brown (Tr)53532110.041
Zavion Thomas41488411.962
Trey'Dez Green33433713.142
Aaron Anderson33398012.139

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davhon Keys894162
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)881004
West Weeks768311
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)702012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins558462
West Weeks768311
DJ Pickett353203
Damien Shanklin22200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)4500111
P.J. Woodland382128
Patrick Payton (Tr)335126