Colorado at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview

Friday, September 12th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Houston -4 (45.5) (-192) Open: 0.0
Houston 36 - Colorado: 20 (Big 12)

Buffaloes (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Deion Sanders (13 - 11)
Avg Score : 21 - 31 (17 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)

Temp: 90.9° (42% Hum)
Our Line: Houston -16.5 (SP+ HOU -16)
Projected Score: COLO: 16 - HOU: 32 (48)
HOU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
COLO Travel: 905 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
COLO Players
HOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Colorado vs Georgia Tech	+4.0	55.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/6	Colorado vs Delaware	-23.5	49.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 9/12	Colorado at Houston	+4.0	45.5	L 20 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/20	Colorado vs Wyoming	-12.5	45.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Colorado vs BYU	+6.5	48.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Colorado at TCU	+13.5	57.5	L 21 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/11	Colorado vs Iowa State	+3.0	52.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Colorado at Utah	+14.5	50.5	L 7 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/1	Colorado vs Arizona	+4.0	52.5	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/8	Colorado at West Virginia	+6.5	51.5	L 22 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Colorado vs Arizona State	+7.0	47.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	Colorado at Kansas State	+16.5	50.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado's Schedule

Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Houston vs Stephen F. Austin	-24.5	54.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Houston at Rice	-13.5	38.5	W 35 - 9	O	Y
Fri 9/12	Houston vs Colorado	-4.0	45.5	W 36 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26	Houston at Oregon State	-11.5	48.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/4	Houston vs Texas Tech	+13.5	51.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/11	Houston at Oklahoma State	-14.5	47.5	W 39 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Houston vs Arizona	+1.5	47.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Houston at Arizona State	+7.0	46.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Houston vs West Virginia	-13.5	48.5	L 35 - 45	O	N
Fri 11/7	Houston at UCF	+1.5	47.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Houston vs TCU	+1.5	55.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/29	Houston at Baylor	+2.5	57.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 12/27	Houston vs LSU	-1.5	43.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
COLO	#35 (.24)	44% (48)	20.9	44% (73)	2.76 (110)	66	45% (34)	302	4.34 (28)	#22 (.09)	38% (30)	30.5	40% (43)	36% (17)	3.3 (21)	62.8	0.9	1.8
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)	29.1	35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)	22.8	40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
COLO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
COLO Offense	13	20.9	16.8	44.5%	4.34	0.9	20	368	66	302	2.7	37%	63%	44%	45%	17%	.24
HOU Defense	12	22.8	24.2	39.6%	3.52	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
COLO Defense	13	30.5	35.4	38.4%	3.3	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	40%	36%	20%	.09
HOU Offense	12	29.1	25.7	35.3%	2.57	2.3	15	289	137	153	3.9	57%	42%	35%	37%	21%	-

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado	13	26:03	19.7	41%	40%	7.1	62.8	0.9	1.8	6.7	2.8	2	31.4
Houston	12	30:10	15.1	28%	38%	5.5	51.9	2.3	1.6	5.6	1.8	2	27.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
COLO Offense	13	37% (133)	44% (73)	24.2	66	2.7	15 (96)	.08 (94)	2.76 (110)	82% (16)	11% (104)	0.86 (121)
HOU Defense	12	51% (76)	40% (41)	-	-	-	-	.06 (34)	2.8 (35)	69% (41)	12% (27)	1 (75)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
COLO Defense	13	53% (93)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.06 (37)	2.87 (47)	78% (98)	12% (19)	1.06 (100)
HOU Offense	12	57% (22)	35% (130)	35.5	136.6	3.9	9 (125)	(122)	2.52 (129)	64% (119)	16% (132)	1.01 (49)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
COLO Offense	13	63% (2)	45% (34)	25.9	35.2	302	8.6	11.7	35 (3)	8 (40)	.34 (32)	1.6 (53)	33% (96)	35% (27)	.47 (18)	6% (78)	2.1 (54)
HOU Defense	12	49% (62)	39% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.23 (68)	1.7 (95)	33% (54)	32% (96)	.32 (79)	6% (71)	2 (55)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
COLO Defense	13	47% (46)	36% (17)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.13 (24)	1.6 (61)	35% (25)	29% (50)	.24 (41)	8% (18)	1.9 (31)
HOU Offense	12	42% (114)	37% (115)	15.2	23.3	152.7	6.5	10.1	9 (128)	17 (127)	.02 (131)	1.4 (122)	35% (120)	20% (133)	-.04 (134)	5% (45)	1.7 (130)

Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: -8.56 #93
Colorado's Offense Rating: 10.82 #82
Colorado's Defense Rating: 19.38 #101
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #25
Colorado's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Colorado's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #96
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #103
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #88

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado: -8.56 Houston: 8.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado: -8.3 Houston: 7.4

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 8.14 #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84 #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96 #51
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Colorado Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 30.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Colorado's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Houston 32
Colorado 16

Projected Total Points: 48

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/12	Houston	36	Colorado	20	Houston -4	Houston	45.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Houston	1	1	1 Overs
Colorado	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#93) COLO at (#53) HOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	COLO	HOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#93	#53
SP+SP+	#96	#40
Perf GradeGrade	#118	#46
OffenseOff	#114	#73
DefenseDef	#110	#21
Spec TeamsST	#55	#83
TalentTal	#66	#58
Blue ChipsBC%	#25	#46

Colorado Notes(12/5) Hired Brennan Marion (Sac St HC) as OC
(12/5) OC Marion runs Go-Go Off, was UNLV OC '23-'24
(11/26) QB1 Fr Lewis will sit vs K St, preserve redshirt
(11/23) 1-6 run after ASU blowout. Future of this program?
(11/5) QB1 now Fr J. Lewis vs WVU. 24-105 last 2 games
(11/5) Brett Bartolone (TE coach) now calling plays
(10/26) Down 43-0 at half vs Utah. Had -18 yards!
(9/18) QB1 back to Salter, Staub bad. Fr Lewis next?
(9/13) Staub not good vs Hou, no run Off, bad Def
(9/9) QB Ryan Saub starting vs Houston
(9/8) QB shuffle, #3 Staub played best vs Del
(8/29) Prime's clock management is an abomination
Colorado Injury Report

Houston Notes(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report

Colorado on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	HOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#21
SuccessSuc	#48	#41
ExplosiveExp	#31	#94
PPAPPA	#35	#51
PowerPwr	#82	#51
SP+SP+	#103	#46
Pts POPPO	#28	#41
HavocHav	#97	#46

Colorado Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#132	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#73	#41
Run ExplRExp	#121	#75
PPAExp	#94	#34
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#110	#35
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#38
TackleTak	-	#18

Colorado Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#95
PPAExp	#32	#68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#116
F7 HavocF7	#104	#27
DB HavocDB	#78	#71

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	COLO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#73	#110
SuccessSuc	#129	#30
ExplosiveExp	#109	#76
PPAPPA	#133	#22
PowerPwr	#57	#101
SP+SP+	#44	#88
Pts POPPO	#134	#21
HavocHav	#130	#13

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	COLO Def
Run GameRun	#50	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	#43
Run ExplRExp	#49	#100
PPAExp	#122	#37
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#116	#51
TackleTak	-	#112

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	COLO Def
Pass GamePass	#104	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#115	#17
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#61
PPAExp	#131	#24
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#125	#67
F7 HavocF7	#132	#19
DB HavocDB	#45	#18

Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

COLO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 91° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Houston -4.0 (45.5)
Houston won vs Colorado this year (36-20)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Colorado last year (36-20)

COLO's OC Pat Shurmur (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter (Tr)	127	204	62%	1414	10	7	6.9
Julian Lewis	52	94	55%	589	4	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Micah Welch	96	384	4	4.0	44
Kaidon Salter (Tr)	104	357	5	3.4	35
Dallan Hayden	70	326	1	4.7	42
Simeon Price (Tr)	21	144	2	6.9	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Miller	44	807	8	18.3	70
Joseph Williams (Tr)	37	489	4	13.2	47
Sincere Brown (Tr)	22	376	2	17.1	71
Drelon Miller	21	159	1	7.6	32

View Colorado's Full Roster

COLO's DC Robert Livingston (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tawfiq Byard (Tr)	78	8	1	1	4
Jeremiah Brown	69	8	2	0	0
Preston Hodge	52	3	0	1	13
Keaten Wade	47	9	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaten Wade	47	9	3	5	1
Arden Walker	42	5	3	5	1
Jeremiah Brown	69	8	2	0	0
Brandon Davis-Swain	15	3	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Preston Hodge	52	3	1	13
Dylahn McKinney	34	1	0	5
Ivan Yates	16	0	0	5

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)	232	356	65%	2705	25	9	7.6
Zeon Chriss	10	21	48%	108	1	1	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors (Tr)	200	977	6	4.9	54
Conner Weigman (Tr)	170	703	11	4.1	50
DJ Butler	68	301	0	4.4	15
Stacy Sneed	37	130	0	3.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)	67	966	12	14.4	64
Tanner Koziol (Tr)	74	727	6	9.8	50
Stephon Johnson Jr.	13	275	2	21.2	74
Dean Connors (Tr)	34	254	3	7.5	33

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Garner	76	4	2	4	2
Carlos Allen	72	8	2	0	3
Kentrell Webb	71	3	0	0	4
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	64	12	7	9	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	64	12	7	9	5
Brandon Mack	32	6	5	1	0
Corey Platt Jr.	41	5	3	2	2
Wrook Brown (Tr)	49	6	3	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Latrell McCutchin	52	3	1	8
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)	19	0	0	7
Will James (Tr)	39	4	0	5