Colorado at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
Colorado logo Colorado Buffaloes at Houston CougarsHouston logo
Friday, September 12th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Houston -4 (45.5) (-192)  Open: 0.0
Houston 36 - Colorado: 20  (Big 12)

 
Buffaloes (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Deion Sanders (13 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 23 (20 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#115)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Houston -4   (SP+ HOU -7)
Projected Score: COLO: 21 - HOU: 25 (46)
HOU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
COLO Travel: 905 miles, 1 hrs behind
Cougars (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 10 (32 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
 
Colorado's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Colorado vs Georgia Tech+4.055.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 9/6 Colorado vs Delaware-23.549.5W 31 - 7UY
Fri 9/12 Colorado at Houston+4.045.5L 20 - 36ON
Sat 9/20 Colorado vs Wyoming-12.544.5
Sat 9/27 Colorado vs BYU+7
Sat 10/4 Colorado at TCU+17
Sat 10/11 Colorado vs Iowa State+8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Colorado at Utah+19.5
Sat 11/1 Colorado vs Arizona+3
Sat 11/8 Colorado at West Virginia+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Colorado vs Arizona State+9
Sat 11/29 Colorado at Kansas State+5.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado's Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Houston at Oregon State-5.5
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+16
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-8
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.5
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+12.5
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-0.5
Sat 11/8 Houston at UCF+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+10.5
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+9.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
COLO#65 (.21)37% (113)23.736% (118)2.73 (93)12638% (103)2105.42 (17)#95 (.18)47% (114)23.348% (110)44% (100)3.5 (68)41.70.72
HOU#95 (.13)36% (120)32.734% (120)2.69 (98)20239% (98)1873.67 (86)#18 (-.04)29% (8)9.736% (47)23% (4)5.17 (125)4102
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
COLO#35 (.24)44% (48)44% (73)2.76 (110)6645% (34)3024.34 (28)#22 (.09)38% (30)40% (43)36% (17)3.3 (21)62.80.91.8
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
COLO Offense323.72037%5.420.7183361262104.242%58%36%38%17%.21
HOU Defense39.71029.1%5.172 - - - - - 51%47%36%23%18%-.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
COLO Defense323.33646.6%3.52 - - - - - 64%36%48%44%13%.18
HOU Offense332.731.535.9%3.670183902021874.561%39%34%39%11%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Colorado327:5618.337%75%4.741.70.7241.7028.7
Houston332:5617.745%40%4.741025.32.7136.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
COLO Offense342% (118)36% (118)30125.74.25 (62).24 (41)2.73 (93)67% (86)12% (113)1.53 (6)
HOU Defense351% (80)36% (47) - - - - -.04 (38)2.28 (26)78% (100)10% (69)0.87 (52)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
COLO Defense364% (133)48% (110) - - - - .07 (71)3.12 (104)75% (80)8% (102)0.99 (78)
HOU Offense361% (17)34% (120)45.3202.34.56 (49)-.03 (116)2.69 (98)65% (95)7% (32)1.07 (47)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
COLO Offense358% (18)38% (103)19.331.32106.710.94 (72)2 (60).2 (91)1.5 (75)39% (123)39% (28).55 (31)5% (60)2.2 (43)
HOU Defense347% (40)23% (4) - - - - - - 5 (6).01 (22)1.4 (49)39% (13)14% (11).05 (26)8% (30)2.2 (101)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
COLO Defense336% (6)44% (100) - - - - - - 2 (56).37 (111)1.7 (106)28% (117)31% (84).2 (57)5% (84)1.8 (43)
HOU Offense339% (122)39% (98)15.324.3187.37.712.24 (72)0 (1).38 (51)2.1 (4)36% (117)34% (52).46 (49)4% (39)2.2 (36)

Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: 7.52 #62
Colorado's Offense Rating: 15.81 #49
Colorado's Defense Rating: 8.29 #74
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #25
Colorado's 2025 Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9
Colorado's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #63
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado: 7.52   Houston: 7.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado: 0.4   Houston: 7.8




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 7.955 #72
Houston's Offense Rating: 5.45 #100
Houston's Defense Rating: 2.34 #38
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #75
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Colorado Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Houston 25
Colorado 21


Total Points: 46

Houston Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 9.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/12Houston36Colorado20HoustonHouston -4Houston45.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston111 Overs
Colorado000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#62) Colorado Info
Power Rating: 7.52 #62
Offense Rating: 15.81 #49
Defense Rating: 8.29 #74
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #63
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #25
Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.42 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.5 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 48%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Colorado has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Colorado Notes
(9/9) QB Ryan Saub starting vs Houston
(9/8) QB shuffle, #3 Staub played best vs Del
(8/29) Prime's clock management is an abomination
(8/29) Salter OK, run off better, run defense mauled
(8/26) QB1 Kaidon Salter starter, Fr. Lewis backup
(7/22) Very quiet, Prime health issues. Bad signs
(5/1) Watch Fr WR Q Gibson, will play early and KR
(4/11) RB Augustave no longer on team, led RB LY
(4/4) So. Jordan Seaton (OT) a top OT via PFF
(3/19) RBs bad LY in passing Off. Any ballers?

Colorado Highlights
Colorado offense is explosive (#12)
Colorado offense is good in red zone (#17)
Colorado has a great TO Margin (#28)

Colorado Deficiencies
Colorado offense is really bad (#113)
Colorado run game is really bad (#118)
Colorado pass game is really bad (#103)
Colorado has a bad defense (#114)
Colorado has a bad defensive line (#104)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatHOUCOLO
OverallOver#29#83
OffenseOff#72#98
DefenseDef#8#74
Special TeamsST#8#43
PassingPass#92#108
RushingRush#62#88
Run BlockRBLK#27#78
Pass BlockPBLK#116#9
Route RunningWR Rt#52#93
TacklingTkl#4#62
Run DefenseR Def#16#74
Pass Rush DefPRush#84#44
Coverage DefCov#2#96

Rematch from Week 3
Houston -4.0 (45.5)
Houston won vs Colorado this year (36-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: COLO | HOU
Depth Chart: COLO | HOU
Rosters: COLO | HOU
(#72) Houston Info
Power Rating: 7.955 #72
Offense Rating: 5.45 #100
Defense Rating: 2.34 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.67 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.17 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Great Pass Def Success 23%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Houston has won 2 straight
Houston has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Houston Notes
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key
(5/13) TE Koziol (Ball St) huge add, @ Wisc in spring
(4/4) CB Jeremiah Wilson a top 10 CB via PFF
(3/21) QB Weigman is talented. Could be great fit

Houston Highlights
Houston is Undefeated vs Spread
Houston in Undefeated
Houston is Undefeated at Home
Houston is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Houston offense is explosive (#16)
Houston offense is good on 3rd downs
Houston has a really good defense (#8)
Houston defense does not give up big plays (#27)
Houston has a good pass defense (#4)
Houston Defensive Line is very good (#26)
Houston Secondary is very good (#30)
Houston has a great TO Margin (#1)
Houston defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Houston Deficiencies
Houston offense is really bad (#120)
Houston run game is really bad (#120)
Houston has a bad red zone defense (#125)


  
Colorado's OC Pat Shurmur
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Staub264558%361328.0
Kaidon Salter (Tr)304468%261105.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Simeon Price (Tr)1913617.238
Micah Welch237613.322
Kaidon Salter (Tr)226823.121
Dekalon Taylor (Tr)106106.123
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Sincere Brown (Tr)6135122.571
Joseph Williams (Tr)8117114.637
Dekalon Taylor (Tr)10106210.622
Omarion Miller493023.339

View Colorado's Full Roster
Colorado's DC Robert Livingston
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tawfiq Byard (Tr)182101
Reginald Hughes (Tr)160020
Martavius French (Tr)153100
Carter Stoutmire130003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Martavius French (Tr)153100
Keaten Wade113120
Quency Wiggins21120
Tawfiq Byard (Tr)182101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Carter Stoutmire130003
Preston Hodge100002
Tawfiq Byard (Tr)182101

Houston's OC Slade Nagle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)457064%569408.1
Zeon Chriss1333%-700-2.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)5027135.454
Conner Weigman (Tr)3314534.449
Stacy Sneed2510104.016
J'Marion Burnette104004.012
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.6191131.874
Tanner Koziol (Tr)1714818.723
Amare Thomas (Tr)8110113.822
J'Marion Burnette139139.039

View Houston's Full Roster
Houston's DC Austin Armstrong
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner201010
Carlos Allen172001
Latrell McCutchin162001
Kentrell Webb132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)135211
Corey Platt Jr.72200
Brandon Mack72210
Khalil Laufau (Tr)81111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latreveon McCutchin80002
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)50002
Khalil Laufau (Tr)81111