LSU at Alabama - 2025 Matchup Preview
LSU logo LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide(#4)Alabama logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Alabama -10.5 (49.5) (-380)  Open: -4.5 | 54.5
Alabama 20 - LSU: 9  (SEC)

 
Tigers (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (28 - 11)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 5.3 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
LSU coming off BYE
ALA coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -12  (SP+ ALA -11)

Projected Score: LSU: 18 - ALA: 30 (49)
ALA Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
LSU Travel: 288 miles
Crimson Tide (11 - 4) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.3 - 3.7 (#11)
Wins: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
LSU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 LSU at Clemson+3.557.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-36.549.5W 23 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 LSU vs Florida-5.547.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 9/20 LSU vs SE Louisiana-49.060.0W 56 - 10ON
Sat 9/27 LSU at Ole Miss+2.557.5L 19 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 LSU vs South Carolina-8.544.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 LSU at Vanderbilt+1.548.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/25 LSU vs Texas A&M+1.550.5L 25 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 LSU at Alabama+10.549.5L 9 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 LSU vs Arkansas-4.058.5W 23 - 22UN
Sat 11/22 LSU vs Western Kentucky-24.552.0W 13 - 10UN
Sat 11/29 LSU at Oklahoma+11.536.5L 13 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 LSU vs Houston+1.543.5L 35 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Alabama at Florida State-13.550.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Alabama vs UL Monroe-34.050.0W 73 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Alabama vs Wisconsin-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Alabama at Georgia+2.553.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/4 Alabama vs Vanderbilt-13.558.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Alabama at Missouri-3.550.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/18 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.560.5W 37 - 20UY
Sat 10/25 Alabama at South Carolina-11.547.5W 29 - 22ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Alabama vs LSU-10.549.5W 20 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Alabama vs Oklahoma-6.545.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 11/22 Alabama vs Eastern Illinois-50.557.5W 56 - 0UY
Sat 11/29 Alabama at Auburn-6.548.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 12/6 Alabama vs Georgia+2.547.5L 7 - 28UN
Fri 12/19 Alabama at Oklahoma+1.542.0W 34 - 24OY
Thu 1/1 Alabama vs Indiana+7.546.5L 3 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#121 (.06)39% (108)22.837% (122)2.46 (132)10541% (84)2303.35 (104)#28 (.08)39% (30)19.839% (34)39% (44)3.25 (32)59.31.11.6
ALA#48 (.2)43% (62)29.540% (103)2.73 (109)10445% (33)2644.04 (38)#27 (.08)38% (23)19.239% (31)38% (33)3.65 (66)39.40.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Offense1322.816.438.9%3.351.1193341052303.742%56%37%41%18%.06
ALA Defense1519.211.437.9%3.651.3 - - - - - 50%48%39%38%18%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Defense1319.820.438.8%3.251.6 - - - - - 48%51%39%39%17%.08
ALA Offense1529.539.342.7%4.040.9203681042643.443%56%40%45%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
LSU1330:1518.837%62%759.31.11.65.22.1229.8
Alabama1531:3420.342%61%4.539.40.91.35.72.2330.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Offense1342% (122)37% (122)28.6104.83.710 (107).01 (121)2.46 (132)64% (115)11% (116)0.92 (87)
ALA Defense1550% (74)39% (31) - - - - .1 (66)2.81 (53)75% (101)11% (19)1 (91)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Defense1348% (43)39% (34) - - - - .01 (18)2.59 (15)64% (18)9% (93)0.9 (40)
ALA Offense1543% (118)40% (103)31104.23.421 (99).02 (115)2.73 (109)67% (100)8% (33)0.83 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Offense1356% (14)41% (84)22.434.1229.56.710.320 (50)7 (60).18 (105)1.4 (109)36% (129)31% (69).23 (96)7% (99)1.9 (96)
ALA Defense1548% (60)38% (33) - - - - - - 11 (31).11 (17)1.5 (50)35% (19)28% (46).25 (53)6% (47)2 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Defense1351% (105)39% (44) - - - - - - 17 (22).18 (39)1.6 (70)34% (29)29% (60).22 (37)8% (11)1.9 (46)
ALA Offense1556% (15)45% (33)22.934.9263.57.611.532 (2)5 (3).35 (37)1.6 (54)30% (49)33% (30).4 (29)5% (42)2 (72)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.48  #20
LSU's Offense Rating: 14.53  #60
LSU's Defense Rating: -0.95  #8
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71%  #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 5.3
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #33
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #90
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.0  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 15.48   Alabama: 24.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 9.6   Alabama: 20.6




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 24.355  #8
Alabama's Offense Rating: 21.71  #21
Alabama's Defense Rating: -1.40  #5
2025 Talent Rating: 1064.00  #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 73  #2
Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 11.3 - 3.7
Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.6  #12
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3  #22
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 30
LSU 18


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Alabama 30
LSU 20

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 27
LSU 17

Total Points: 44
Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Alabama20LSU9Alabama -10.5Alabama49.5Under
202411/09LSU13Alabama42Alabama -2.5Alabama57.5Under
202311/04Alabama42LSU28Alabama -3Alabama61.5Over
202211/05LSU32Alabama31Alabama -13.5LSU56.5Over
202111/06Alabama20LSU14Alabama -29.5LSU66.5Under
202012/05LSU17Alabama55Alabama -29Alabama64.5Over
201911/09Alabama41LSU46Alabama -5LSU65.5Over
201811/03LSU0Alabama29Alabama -14Alabama51.5Under
201711/04Alabama24LSU10Alabama -20.5LSU45.5Under
201611/05LSU0Alabama10Alabama -7Alabama46.0Under
201511/07Alabama30LSU16Alabama -7Alabama47.0Under
201411/08LSU13Alabama20Alabama -6Alabama0
201311/09Alabama38LSU17Alabama -9.5Alabama0
201211/03LSU17Alabama21
201111/05Alabama6LSU9
201101/09LSU0Alabama21
201011/06LSU24Alabama21
200911/07Alabama24LSU15
200811/08LSU21Alabama27
200711/03Alabama34LSU41
200611/11LSU28Alabama14
200511/12Alabama13LSU16
200411/13LSU26Alabama10
200311/15Alabama3LSU27
200111/03Alabama21LSU35
200011/03LSU30Alabama28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama1594 Overs
LSU1147 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 145 - 84 - 31 - 5
Road Teams14 - 128 - 55 - 13 - 4

(#20) LSU at (#8) ALA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLSUALA
Net PPPPPP #60 #30
Power RatePwr #20 #8
SP+SP+ #33 #12
Perf GradeGrade #63 #17
OffenseOff #96 #36
DefenseDef #30 #17
Spec TeamsST #65 #27
TalentTal #8 #6
Blue ChipsBC% #4 #2
LSU Notes
(12/6) DC Blake Baker will stay on under Kiffin
(12/1) Hired Lane Kiffin, Weis will be OC, more to come
(11/26) Nussmeier doubtful vs OU, Van Buren gets 3rd start
(10/27) OC Joe Sloan fired, Alex Atkins (TE/RGC) int.
(10/26) Brian Kelly fired, AHS Frank Wilson interim
(10/25) OTs exposed vs A&M. 2 straight L's, Off sucks
(10/24) Have real issues at LT. May play BU C Chester, woof
(10/22) LB Whit Weeks out for A&M game (ankle)
(10/20) LT Tyree Adams out multiple games (A&M/Bama)
(10/18) Def was bad vs Vandy, Run Off bad, Nuss had no time
(10/18) Kelly now 11-11 on the road after Vandy loss.
(10/12) Cannot score +20 pts vs FBS teams, Def really good
LSU Injury Report
Alabama Notes
(11/16) Run Off exposed vs OU. OG'd OU but TO's costly
(10/15) RB1 Jam Miller ? for Tenn game
(10/11) Avg 140 yds rush pg with Jam Miller, 80 yds without
(10/6) Leads CFB in TO margin +9, Simpson a Heisman fav
(10/3) Have scored on 1st drive in 3 of 4 games (Scripted)
(10/1) DE/LB Qua Russaw out weeks (foot), big depth hit
(9/14) QB Simpson looks good, Run Off just bad?
(9/3) DT J Beaman out for season (lower body)
(8/30) Outrushed 230-87 vs FSU, Simpson a JAG?
(8/30) Offense 6-17 on 3rd, 2-5 on 4th down. Issues
(8/27) DL Tim Keenan out multiple weeks (ankle inj)
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
Alabama Injury Report
LSU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffALA Def
PPPOffPPP #97 #44
Perf GradePerf #96 #17
SuccessSuc #108 #23
ExplosiveExp #91 #61
PPAPPA #121 #27
PowerPwr #60 #5
SP+SP+ #90 #6
Pts POPPO #104 #66
HavocHav #113 #26
LSU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffALA Def
Run GameRun #118 #17
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #31
Run ExplRExp #87 #91
PPAExp #121 #66
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLY #132 #53
Stuff RateStuff #133 #66
TackleTak -  #24
LSU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffALA Def
Pass GamePass #30 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #84 #33
Pass ExplPExl #109 #50
PPAExp #105 #17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #71 #127
F7 HavocF7 #116 #19
DB HavocDB #99 #47
Alabama on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffLSU Def
PPPDefPPP #14 #28
Perf GradePerf #36 #30
SuccessSuc #62 #30
ExplosiveExp #50 #60
PPAPPA #48 #28
PowerPwr #21 #8
SP+SP+ #22 #9
Pts POPPO #38 #32
HavocHav #39 #40
Alabama Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #93 #39
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #34
Run ExplRExp #122 #40
PPAExp #115 #18
Run BlockR Blk #44 -
OL YdsOLY #109 #15
Stuff RateStuff #109 #9
TackleTak -  #72
Alabama Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #20 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #44
Pass ExplPExl #54 #70
PPAExp #37 #39
Pass Block/RushP Blk #9 #78
F7 HavocF7 #33 #93
DB HavocDB #42 #11
Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 64°
Rematch from Week 11
Alabama -10.5 (49.5)
Alabama won vs LSU this year (20-9)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat LSU last year (42-13)
Alabama beat LSU in 2023 (42-28)
LSU beat Alabama in 2022 (32-31)

  
LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier19428867%19271256.7
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham11150534.551
Harlem Berry10449124.743
Ju'Juan Johnson4115523.856
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)4812912.735
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Barion Brown (Tr)53532110.041
Zavion Thomas41488411.962
Trey'Dez Green33433713.142
Aaron Anderson33398012.139

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davhon Keys894162
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)881004
West Weeks768311
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)702012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins558462
West Weeks768311
DJ Pickett353203
Damien Shanklin22200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)4500111
P.J. Woodland382128
Patrick Payton (Tr)335126

ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ty Simpson30547365%35672857.5
Austin Mack243275%228207.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamarion Miller13050433.924
Daniel Hill7528463.830
Kevin Riley5922423.822
AK Dear1914037.456
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Germie Bernard64862713.543
Ryan Williams49689414.175
Isaiah Horton (Tr)42511812.237
Lotzeir Brooks32441213.853

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deontae Lawson805214
Justin Jefferson797325
Brayson Hubbard745218
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)545023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Lebbeus Overton406441
Justin Jefferson797325
Keon Keeley133311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Zabien Brown393006
Justin Jefferson797325