TCU at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at Houston CougarsHouston logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (4:00 PM EST)
TCU -1.5 (55.5) (-105)  Open: -2.5 | 55.0
TCU 17 - Houston: 14  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
TCU 2nd straight Road Game
HOU coming off BYE
Our Line: TCU -3  (SP+ TCU -1)

Projected Score: TCU: 29 - HOU: 26 (54)
TCU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
TCU Travel: 238 miles
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.566.5W 42 - 36OY
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-16.555.5W 23 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-7.558.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+3.051.5L 13 - 44ON
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-1.555.5W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-3.058.5W 45 - 23OY
Tue 12/30 TCU vs USC+4.556.5W 30 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.547.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7.046.5W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-13.548.5L 35 - 45ON
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+1.555.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+2.557.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 12/27 Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)30.745% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)25.346% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)29.135% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)22.840% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1330.725.547.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3
HOU Defense1222.824.239.6%3.521.6 - - - - - 51%49%40%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1325.326.241.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
HOU Offense1229.125.735.3%2.572.3152891371533.957%42%35%37%21%-

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Houston1230:1015.128%38%5.551.92.31.65.61.8227.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)
HOU Defense1251% (76)40% (41) - - - - .06 (34)2.8 (35)69% (41)12% (27)1 (75)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
HOU Offense1257% (22)35% (130)35.5136.63.99 (125) (122)2.52 (129)64% (119)16% (132)1.01 (49)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)
HOU Defense1249% (62)39% (49) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (68)1.7 (95)33% (54)32% (96).32 (79)6% (71)2 (55)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
HOU Offense1242% (114)37% (115)15.223.3152.76.510.19 (128)17 (127).02 (131)1.4 (122)35% (120)20% (133)-.04 (134)5% (45)1.7 (130)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.15  #25
TCU's Offense Rating: 21.60  #22
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.45  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16%  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 14.15   Houston: 8.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.3   Houston: 7.4




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 8.14  #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84  #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96  #51
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 29
Houston 26


Projected Total Points: 54
Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Houston14TCU17TCU -1.5TCU55.5Under
202410/04TCU19Houston30TCU -16.5Houston52.0Under
202309/16Houston13TCU36TCU -7.5TCU64.0Under
200712/28Houston13TCU20
200410/23TCU34Houston27
200310/25Houston55TCU62
200210/05TCU34Houston17
200109/29Houston17TCU34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston110 Overs
TCU723 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 60 - 30 - 10 - 2
Road Teams6 - 23 - 02 - 01 - 0

(#25) TCU at (#53) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUHOU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #25 #53
SP+SP+ #37 #40
Perf GradeGrade #26 #46
OffenseOff #34 #73
DefenseDef #27 #21
Spec TeamsST #73 #83
TalentTal #29 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #46
TCU Notes
(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffHOU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #21
SuccessSuc #20 #41
ExplosiveExp #45 #94
PPAPPA #18 #51
PowerPwr #22 #51
SP+SP+ #30 #46
Pts POPPO #20 #41
HavocHav #28 #46
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #60 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #41
Run ExplRExp #85 #75
PPAExp #95 #34
Run BlockR Blk #69 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #35
Stuff RateStuff #82 #38
TackleTak -  #18
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #22 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #49
Pass ExplPExl #75 #95
PPAExp #5 #68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #116
F7 HavocF7 #36 #27
DB HavocDB #38 #71
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffTCU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #73 #27
SuccessSuc #129 #67
ExplosiveExp #109 #52
PPAPPA #133 #82
PowerPwr #57 #33
SP+SP+ #44 #50
Pts POPPO #134 #72
HavocHav #130 #102
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #50 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #102
Run ExplRExp #49 #87
PPAExp #122 #118
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #129 #104
Stuff RateStuff #116 #87
TackleTak -  #8
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #104 #74
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #18
Pass ExplPExl #122 #57
PPAExp #131 #40
Pass Block/RushP Blk #125 #103
F7 HavocF7 #132 #105
DB HavocDB #45 #81
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 13
TCU 1.5 (55.5)
TCU won at Houston this year (17-14)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Houston last year (17-14)
Houston beat TCU in 2024 (30-19)
TCU beat Houston in 2023 (36-13)

  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover27241366%347229138.4
Ken Seals334672%282126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)9744334.675
Trent Battle6434965.565
Jon Denman5017833.616
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister7211901016.585
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)54730713.569
Joseph Manjack44579313.251
D'Andre Rogers3431929.439

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Jamel Johnson963003
Namdi Obiazor884211
Bud Clark562117
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Devean Deal539494
Kylin Jackson (Tr)265321
Paul Oyewale318220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bud Clark562117
Vernon Glover411006
Devean Deal539494

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23235665%27052597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)679661214.464
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005