Arizona at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona logo Arizona Wildcats at Houston CougarsHouston logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Arizona -1.5 (45.5) (-112)  Open: -2.5
O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium - Houston, TX  (Big 12)

 
Wildcats (4 - 2) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (14 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#67)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
HOU is playing their 4th straight game
ARIZ is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arizona -0  (SP+ ARIZ -1.5)

Projected Score: ARIZ: 24 - HOU: 24 (48)
ARIZ Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ARIZ Travel: 939 miles, 2 hrs behind
Cougars (5 - 1) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (25 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#46)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.545.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-0.5
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas+0.5
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+10
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-0
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State+4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.545.5
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-10
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+7.5
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+7.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#84 (.17)41% (94)32.241% (96)3.23 (32)14841% (81)2753.21 (119)#19 (.04)34% (11)18.541% (57)28% (3)3.08 (23)46.31.32.2
HOU#114 (.09)36% (127)29.235% (129)2.44 (127)16037% (117)2193.62 (96)#26 (.07)36% (21)17.542% (77)31% (9)4.09 (92)51.20.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Offense632.21441.3%3.211.3234231482754.344%56%41%41%16%.17
HOU Defense617.518.336.4%4.091.3 - - - - - 53%46%42%31%17%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Defense618.53934.4%3.082.2 - - - - - 50%50%41%28%24%.04
HOU Offense629.224.736.1%3.620.718380160219457%43%35%37%14%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona630:4423.236%67%5.746.31.32.27.82.3134.8
Houston630:1918.239%50%5.851.20.71.34.52.2132.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense644% (111)41% (96)34.2147.84.37 (95).17 (50)3.23 (32)75% (53)9% (62)1.14 (17)
HOU Defense653% (98)42% (77) - - - - .03 (34)2.38 (14)90% (133)10% (76)0.81 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense650% (68)41% (57) - - - - .06 (50)2.58 (30)64% (35)14% (10)0.97 (78)
HOU Offense657% (28)35% (129)39.8160.349 (77)-.09 (133)2.44 (127)63% (114)8% (43)0.9 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense656% (25)41% (81)22.836.82757.51215 (13)6 (102).17 (105)1.5 (95)30% (53)28% (97).41 (44)7% (107)2.1 (48)
HOU Defense646% (33)31% (9) - - - - - - 6 (29).14 (35)1.5 (43)33% (49)19% (6).13 (25)7% (40)1.9 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense650% (64)28% (3) - - - - - - 9 (6).02 (10)1.5 (78)34% (37)23% (16).08 (13)10% (4)1.9 (62)
HOU Offense643% (109)37% (117)16.728219.27.813.29 (73)3 (26).33 (45)1.9 (6)33% (103)25% (110).23 (102)6% (83)2.2 (36)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 7.13  #55
Arizona's Offense Rating: 7.90  #86
Arizona's Defense Rating: 0.77  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.1  #43
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #50
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #37

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 7.13   Houston: 7.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 9.1   Houston: 7.5




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 7.87  #65
Houston's Offense Rating: 4.32  #108
Houston's Defense Rating: 1.08  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5  #45
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #71
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Arizona Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 24
Houston 24


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Houston 29
Arizona 23

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Houston 28
Arizona 21

Total Points: 49
Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 17.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.3

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/15Arizona27Houston3Arizona -1Arizona46.5Under
201809/08Houston45Arizona18Houston -3Houston71.0Under
201709/09Arizona16Houston19Houston -1.5Houston66.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston220 Overs
Arizona113 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 21 - 21 - 00 - 2

(#55) ARIZ at (#65) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARIZHOU
Power RatePwr #55 #65
SP+SP+ #43 #45
Perf GradeGrade #35 #56
OffenseOff #52 #115
DefenseDef #16 #13
Spec TeamsST #56 #5
TalentTal #73 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #46

Arizona Notes
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
(3/22) OL 1/5 back, 6 portal adds, need hits
(3/19) QB Fifita regressed LY. Locke (Wisc) added
(3/19) Def bad LY, F7 returns a lot, 4 DB portals

Houston Notes
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffHOU Def
Perf GradePerf #52 #13
SuccessSuc #94 #21
ExplosiveExp #35 #7
PPAPPA #84 #26
PowerPwr #86 #33
SP+SP+ #50 #25
Pts POPPO #119 #92
HavocHav #79 #56
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #56 #25
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #77
Run ExplRExp #17 #16
PPAExp #50 #34
Run BlockR Blk #54 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #14
Stuff RateStuff #88 #80
TackleTak -  #41
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #16 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #9
Pass ExplPExl #95 #43
PPAExp #105 #35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #104
F7 HavocF7 #62 #76
DB HavocDB #107 #40
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatHOU OffARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #16
SuccessSuc #127 #11
ExplosiveExp #21 #48
PPAPPA #114 #19
PowerPwr #108 #32
SP+SP+ #71 #37
Pts POPPO #96 #23
HavocHav #55 #3
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
HOU OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #97 #48
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #57
Run ExplRExp #98 #78
PPAExp #133 #50
Run BlockR Blk #64 -
OL YdsOLY #127 #30
Stuff RateStuff #111 #38
TackleTak -  #49
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatHOU OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #115 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #117 #3
Pass ExplPExl #6 #78
PPAExp #45 #10
Pass Block/RushP Blk #134 #78
F7 HavocF7 #43 #10
DB HavocDB #83 #4
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Arizona beat Houston last year (27-3)

  
ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita13120963%15601547.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)5956%68017.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)7140315.760
Quincy Craig (Tr)2820717.454
Kedrick Reescano2514525.836
Noah Fifita486031.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javin Whatley (Tr)25328313.185
Kris Hutson (Tr)20262213.140
Chris Hunter17239214.135
Luke Wysong (Tr)15229115.347

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson411102
Genesis Smith382015
Taye Brown363021
Max Harris (Tr)322040
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Wilson (Tr)194311
Chase Kennedy164250
Dalton Johnson411102
Julien Savaiinaea102100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Garnes (Tr)140015
Genesis Smith382015
Michael Dansby (Tr)111004

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)9114862%1216828.2
Zeon Chriss92045%99115.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)9543844.654
Conner Weigman (Tr)5114852.949
Stacy Sneed3313003.916
Zeon Chriss127906.621
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)23441219.264
Tanner Koziol (Tr)30310210.350
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)137515.816

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner423221
Carlos Allen413002
Kentrell Webb302000
Sione Fotu (Tr)301100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Platt Jr.213310
Jalen Garner423221
Brandon Mack183210
Eddie Walls III (Tr)235233
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)100006
Eddie Walls III (Tr)235233
Marc Stampley II (Tr)212102