Arizona at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona logo Arizona Wildcats at Houston CougarsHouston logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Arizona -1.5 (47.5) (-120)  Open: -2.5
Houston 31 - Arizona: 28  (Big 12)

 
Wildcats (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
Light Rain Predicted
HOU is playing their 4th straight game
ARIZ is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arizona -0.5  (SP+ ARIZ -4.5)

Projected Score: ARIZ: 25 - HOU: 24 (49)
ARIZ Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ARIZ Travel: 939 miles, 1 hrs behind
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.547.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-4.052.5W 52 - 17OY
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas-5.556.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+6.556.5W 30 - 24UY
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-6.561.5W 41 - 17UY
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State-2.048.5W 23 - 7UY
Fri 1/2 Arizona vs SMU+2.555.5L 19 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.547.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7.046.5W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-13.548.5L 35 - 45ON
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+1.555.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+2.557.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 12/27 Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)31.537% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)19.345% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)29.135% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)22.840% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Offense1231.529.438.5%3.531.7193551072483.939%61%37%40%16%.15
HOU Defense1222.824.239.6%3.521.6 - - - - - 51%49%40%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Defense1219.323.644.6%4.551.2 - - - - - 51%48%45%44%14%.24
HOU Offense1229.125.735.3%2.572.3152891371533.957%42%35%37%21%-

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona1229:4518.543%42%6.557.61.71.24.81.7027.6
Houston1230:1015.128%38%5.551.92.31.65.61.8227.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense1239% (127)37% (126)27.4106.73.911 (116).03 (112)2.64 (123)55% (134)9% (59)1.21 (6)
HOU Defense1251% (76)40% (41) - - - - .06 (34)2.8 (35)69% (41)12% (27)1 (75)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense1251% (73)45% (90) - - - - .18 (100)3.32 (115)78% (99)9% (94)1.08 (109)
HOU Offense1257% (22)35% (130)35.5136.63.99 (125) (122)2.52 (129)64% (119)16% (132)1.01 (49)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense1261% (8)40% (91)21.836.4247.96.811.418 (68)13 (103).22 (88)1.6 (44)36% (124)31% (70).33 (71)6% (88)2.1 (35)
HOU Defense1249% (62)39% (49) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (68)1.7 (95)33% (54)32% (96).32 (79)6% (71)2 (55)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense1248% (61)44% (109) - - - - - - 6 (109).31 (103)1.6 (66)31% (88)32% (95).39 (101)5% (93)2.2 (105)
HOU Offense1242% (114)37% (115)15.223.3152.76.510.19 (128)17 (127).02 (131)1.4 (122)35% (120)20% (133)-.04 (134)5% (45)1.7 (130)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 4.99  #50
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.18  #45
Arizona's Defense Rating: 12.19  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.0  #28
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #29
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 4.99   Houston: 8.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 12.0   Houston: 7.4




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 8.14  #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84  #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96  #51
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 25
Houston 24


Projected Total Points: 49
Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Houston31Arizona28Arizona -1.5Houston47.5Over
202411/15Arizona27Houston3Arizona -1Arizona46.5Under
201809/08Houston45Arizona18Houston -3Houston71.0Under
201709/09Arizona16Houston19Houston -1.5Houston66.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston331 Overs
Arizona113 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 13 - 12 - 01 - 1
Road Teams1 - 31 - 31 - 10 - 2

(#50) ARIZ at (#53) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARIZHOU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #50 #53
SP+SP+ #28 #40
Perf GradeGrade #31 #46
OffenseOff #55 #73
DefenseDef #13 #21
Spec TeamsST #88 #83
TalentTal #73 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #46
Arizona Notes
(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffHOU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #55 #21
SuccessSuc #117 #41
ExplosiveExp #3 #94
PPAPPA #93 #51
PowerPwr #45 #51
SP+SP+ #29 #46
Pts POPPO #101 #41
HavocHav #65 #46
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #73 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #126 #41
Run ExplRExp #6 #75
PPAExp #112 #34
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #35
Stuff RateStuff #133 #38
TackleTak -  #18
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #28 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #49
Pass ExplPExl #44 #95
PPAExp #88 #68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #54 #116
F7 HavocF7 #59 #27
DB HavocDB #88 #71
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffARIZ Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #73 #13
SuccessSuc #129 #100
ExplosiveExp #109 #96
PPAPPA #133 #109
PowerPwr #57 #56
SP+SP+ #44 #25
Pts POPPO #134 #125
HavocHav #130 #99
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #50 #43
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #90
Run ExplRExp #49 #109
PPAExp #122 #100
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #129 #115
Stuff RateStuff #116 #102
TackleTak -  #47
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #104 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #109
Pass ExplPExl #122 #66
PPAExp #131 #103
Pass Block/RushP Blk #125 #111
F7 HavocF7 #132 #94
DB HavocDB #45 #93
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 83° - Wind: 9 mph
Rain: 0.004
Rematch from Week 8
Arizona 1.5 (47.5)
Houston won vs Arizona this year (31-28)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Arizona last year (31-28)
Arizona beat Houston in 2024 (27-3)

  
ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita27542964%32282967.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)51533%68014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)13385346.468
Kedrick Reescano8439694.750
Quincy Craig (Tr)6536425.654
Noah Fifita11522231.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)60764412.740
Javin Whatley (Tr)41490512.085
Tre Spivey (Tr)23381716.670
Chris Hunter27372213.835

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson972107
Taye Brown939231
Max Harris (Tr)784071
Genesis Smith773018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chase Kennedy428470
Riley Wilson (Tr)518354
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)2611220
Taye Brown939231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Dansby (Tr)1910010
Ayden Garnes (Tr)432028
Genesis Smith773018

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23235665%27052597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)679661214.464
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005