Houston at Oklahoma State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Houston logo Houston Cougars at Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Boone Pickens Stadium - Stillwater, OK  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 10 (35 - 9 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
OKST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Houston -8   (SP+ HOU -11.5)

Projected Score: HOU: 26 - OKST: 18 (43)
HOU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
HOU Travel: 454 miles
Cowboys (1 - 1) (0 - 2 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (27 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Houston at Oregon State-5.5
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+16
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-8
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.5
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+12.5
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-0.5
Sat 11/8 Houston at UCF+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+10.5
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+9.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.056.5W 27 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.555.5L 3 - 69ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-13.555.5
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+14.5
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+16.5
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston+8
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+16
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+31.5
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+18
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+9.5
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+14.5
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+17.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#95 (.13)36% (120)32.734% (120)2.69 (98)20239% (98)1873.67 (86)#18 (-.04)29% (8)9.736% (47)23% (4)5.17 (125)4102
OKST#96 (.13)36% (123)1533% (124)2.57 (104)13639% (95)1503.75 (82)#131 (.43)46% (111)3849% (116)43% (94)4.67 (112)5010.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)43% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)47% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense332.73535.9%3.670183902021874.561%39%34%39%11%.13
OKST Defense238746.2%4.670.5 - - - - - 58%41%49%43%13%.43
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense39.7929.1%5.172 - - - - - 51%47%36%23%18%-.04
OKST Offense2152735.5%3.751152851361503.257%43%33%39%18%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston332:5617.745%40%4.741025.32.7136.5
Oklahoma State231:2014.541%100%6.55010.562023.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense361% (17)34% (120)45.3202.34.56 (49)-.03 (116)2.69 (98)65% (95)7% (32)1.07 (47)
OKST Defense258% (121)49% (116) - - - - .44 (134)3.52 (130)100% (127)10% (65)1.33 (126)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense351% (80)36% (47) - - - - -.04 (38)2.28 (26)78% (100)10% (69)0.87 (52)
OKST Offense257% (30)33% (124)42135.53.22 (109)- (107)2.57 (104)83% (28)10% (83)0.78 (116)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense339% (122)39% (98)15.324.3187.37.712.24 (72)0 (1).38 (51)2.1 (4)36% (117)34% (52).46 (49)4% (39)2.2 (36)
OKST Defense241% (16)43% (94) - - - - - - 1 (87).51 (122)1.8 (118)32% (82)21% (28).13 (39)3% (128)1.5 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense347% (40)23% (4) - - - - - - 5 (6).01 (22)1.4 (49)39% (13)14% (11).05 (26)8% (30)2.2 (101)
OKST Offense243% (103)39% (95)12.524.5149.56.1121 (123)2 (60).3 (67)1.6 (49)41% (133)30% (85).41 (52)8% (125)2 (69)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 3.11 #72
Houston's Offense Rating: 5.45 #100
Houston's Defense Rating: 2.34 #38
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #75
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 3.11   Oklahoma State: -2.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.8   Oklahoma State: -3.8




Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -2.335 #95
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 12.49 #71
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 18.36 #111
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #82
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #65
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #97

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Houston Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 9.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 9

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Houston 26
Oklahoma State 18


Total Points: 43

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 15 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/18Houston30Oklahoma State43Oklahoma StateOklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State56.5Over
200909/12Oklahoma State35Houston45Houston
200809/06Oklahoma State56Houston37Oklahoma State
200609/23Houston34Oklahoma State25Houston
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma State211 Overs
Houston200 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams2 - 21 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#72) Houston Info
Power Rating: 3.11 #72
Offense Rating: 5.45 #100
Defense Rating: 2.34 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.67 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.17 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Great Pass Def Success 23%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Houston has lost 2 straight
Houston has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Houston Notes
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key
(5/13) TE Koziol (Ball St) huge add, @ Wisc in spring
(4/4) CB Jeremiah Wilson a top 10 CB via PFF
(3/21) QB Weigman is talented. Could be great fit

Houston Highlights
Houston is Undefeated vs Spread
Houston in Undefeated

Houston offense is explosive (#16)
Houston offense is good on 3rd downs
Houston has a really good defense (#8)
Houston defense does not give up big plays (#27)
Houston has a good pass defense (#4)
Houston Defensive Line is very good (#26)
Houston Secondary is very good (#30)
Houston has a great TO Margin (#1)
Houston defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Houston Deficiencies
Houston offense is really bad (#120)
Houston run game is really bad (#120)
Houston has a bad red zone defense (#125)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatOKSTHOU
OverallOver#80#29
OffenseOff#94#72
DefenseDef#76#8
Special TeamsST#53#8
PassingPass#96#92
RushingRush#79#62
Run BlockRBLK#66#27
Pass BlockPBLK#60#116
Route RunningWR Rt#97#52
TacklingTkl#27#4
Run DefenseR Def#51#16
Pass Rush DefPRush#70#84
Coverage DefCov#99#2

Previous Matchups
Oklahoma State beat Houston in 2023 (43-30)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: HOU | OKST
Depth Chart: HOU | OKST
Rosters: HOU | OKST
(#95) Oklahoma State Info
Power Rating: -2.335 #95
Offense Rating: 12.49 #71
Defense Rating: 18.36 #111
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #82
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #97
Talent Rating: 872.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Awful Run Success 33%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.67 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Oklahoma State has lost 4 straight
Oklahoma State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Oklahoma State Notes
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
(7/30) 65 total new players, 35 added after spring
(5/23) Def added 18 portals, 9 DL, 3 LB, 6 DB. Improve?
(5/23) Need to see Off because it looks bad on paper
(5/23) RB bad LY. Can Brock (Ga St)/Hicks (OU) help?
(5/23) WR rebuild. Took 5 portals. Some talent
(5/23) OL rebuild 0/5 back. 7 not so great portals
(5/11) OL exp ranked #60 & 94% of that is from portals
(3/22) QBs Hejny (TCU)? came w/ OC Meacham

Oklahoma State Highlights
Oklahoma State is Undefeated at Home

Oklahoma State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Oklahoma State commits very few Penalties (#30)

Oklahoma State Deficiencies
Oklahoma State has a really bad Offense
Oklahoma State Can Not Run the Ball (#125)
Oklahoma State offense is really bad (#123)
Oklahoma State run game is really bad (#124)
Oklahoma State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Oklahoma State has a bad defense (#111)
Oklahoma State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#125)
Oklahoma State Does Not Stuff Runs (#124)
Oklahoma State has a bad defensive line (#130)
Oklahoma State has a bad red zone defense (#112)


  
Houston's OC Slade Nagle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)457064%569408.1
Zeon Chriss1333%-700-2.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)5027135.454
Conner Weigman (Tr)3314534.449
Stacy Sneed2510104.016
J'Marion Burnette104004.012
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.6191131.874
Tanner Koziol (Tr)1714818.723
Amare Thomas (Tr)8110113.822
J'Marion Burnette139139.039

View Houston's Full Roster
Houston's DC Austin Armstrong
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner201010
Carlos Allen172001
Latrell McCutchin162001
Kentrell Webb132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)135211
Corey Platt Jr.72200
Brandon Mack72210
Khalil Laufau (Tr)81111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latreveon McCutchin80002
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)50002
Khalil Laufau (Tr)81111

Oklahoma State's OC Doug Meacham
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zane Flores203951%203025.2
Hauss Hejny (Tr)51050%96109.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kalib Hicks (Tr)3511903.414
Sesi Vailahi93213.610
Trenten Howland63105.28
Rodney Fields Jr.103003.08
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrill Davis (Tr)378026.041
Shamar Rigby (Tr)357019.041
Gavin Freeman64918.212
Christian Fitzpatrick (Tr)335011.735

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster
Oklahoma State's DC Todd Grantham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan McCoy (Tr)231010
Brandon Rawls192100
Jaleel Johnson83030
De'Marion Thomas (Tr)70000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)54310
Brandon Rawls192100
Bryan McCoy (Tr)231010
Iman Oates20010
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sitiveni Kaufusi10001
Cam Smith00001
Aden Kelley30010