Houston at Oklahoma State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Houston logo Houston Cougars at Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Houston -14.5 (47.5) (-650)  Open: -14.0
Houston 39 - Oklahoma State: 17  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (31 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
OKST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Houston -14.5  (SP+ HOU -22.5)

Projected Score: HOU: 31 - OKST: 17 (48)
HOU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
HOU Travel: 454 miles
Cowboys (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (17 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.547.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7.046.5W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-13.548.5L 35 - 45ON
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+1.555.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+2.557.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 12/27 Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.056.5W 27 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.555.5L 3 - 69ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.554.5L 12 - 19UN
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.058.5L 27 - 45OY
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.556.5L 13 - 41UN
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.547.5L 17 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+23.557.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+37.556.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.554.5L 21 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+19.550.5L 6 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+13.547.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+13.547.5L 13 - 20UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)29.135% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)22.840% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)14.243% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)33.347% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
OKST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense1229.13135.3%2.572.3152891371533.957%42%35%37%21%-
OKST Defense1233.327.645.6%3.931.3 - - - - - 50%50%47%44%15%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense1222.819.539.6%3.521.6 - - - - - 51%49%40%39%18%.14
OKST Offense1214.21743.1%4.221.8203791142653.942%58%43%44%15%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston1230:1015.128%38%5.551.92.31.65.61.8227.7
Oklahoma State1227:0320.435%65%543.21.81.35.52.1127.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense1257% (22)35% (130)35.5136.63.99 (125) (122)2.52 (129)64% (119)16% (132)1.01 (49)
OKST Defense1250% (65)47% (107) - - - - .31 (133)3.43 (126)73% (68)8% (112)1.25 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense1251% (76)40% (41) - - - - .06 (34)2.8 (35)69% (41)12% (27)1 (75)
OKST Offense1242% (117)43% (86)29.4114.23.918 (78).04 (109)2.79 (107)74% (61)7% (19)0.87 (119)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense1242% (114)37% (115)15.223.3152.76.510.19 (128)17 (127).02 (131)1.4 (122)35% (120)20% (133)-.04 (134)5% (45)1.7 (130)
OKST Defense1250% (73)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (39).37 (123)1.8 (124)32% (56)36% (119).46 (120)6% (53)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense1249% (62)39% (49) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (68)1.7 (95)33% (54)32% (96).32 (79)6% (71)2 (55)
OKST Offense1258% (17)44% (47)22.337.5264.77.111.922 (46)17 (127).34 (30)1.6 (67)31% (66)31% (82).32 (77)7% (109)1.9 (99)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 3.88  #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84  #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96  #51
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 3.88   Oklahoma State: -8.76

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.4   Oklahoma State: -15.1




Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -8.76  #88
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 7.49  #105
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.91  #76
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1  #121
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.2  #131
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #100

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Houston 31
Oklahoma State 17


Projected Total Points: 48
Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.6

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Oklahoma State17Houston39Houston -14.5Houston47.5Over
202311/18Houston30Oklahoma State43Oklahoma State -6.5Oklahoma State56.5Over
200909/12Oklahoma State35Houston45
200809/06Oklahoma State56Houston37
200609/23Houston34Oklahoma State25
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma State212 Overs
Houston310 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 30 - 20 - 00 - 2
Road Teams3 - 22 - 02 - 00 - 0

(#53) HOU at (#88) OKST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHOUOKST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #53 #88
SP+SP+ #40 #121
Perf GradeGrade #46 #131
OffenseOff #73 #133
DefenseDef #21 #118
Spec TeamsST #83 #125
TalentTal #58 #32
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #65
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
Oklahoma State Notes
(12/13) Hired DC Skyler Cassity from N Tex w/ Morris
(11/25) Hired N Tex HC Eric Morris, will join after season
(10/26) Starting OT Grant Seagren entered portal
(10/22) OL Noah McKinney left for the portal, starting OG
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
Oklahoma State Injury Report
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffOKST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #73 #118
SuccessSuc #129 #109
ExplosiveExp #109 #132
PPAPPA #133 #131
PowerPwr #57 #76
SP+SP+ #44 #100
Pts POPPO #134 #82
HavocHav #130 #89
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #50 #72
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #107
Run ExplRExp #49 #133
PPAExp #122 #133
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #129 #126
Stuff RateStuff #116 #119
TackleTak -  #89
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #104 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #108
Pass ExplPExl #122 #124
PPAExp #131 #123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #125 #111
F7 HavocF7 #132 #112
DB HavocDB #45 #53
Oklahoma State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatOKST OffHOU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #133 #21
SuccessSuc #63 #41
ExplosiveExp #69 #94
PPAPPA #52 #51
PowerPwr #105 #51
SP+SP+ #131 #46
Pts POPPO #42 #41
HavocHav #45 #46
Oklahoma State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
OKST OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #126 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #86 #41
Run ExplRExp #119 #75
PPAExp #109 #34
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLY #107 #35
Stuff RateStuff #80 #38
TackleTak -  #18
Oklahoma State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatOKST OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #133 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #49
Pass ExplPExl #67 #95
PPAExp #30 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #37 #116
F7 HavocF7 #19 #27
DB HavocDB #109 #71
Program Comparison
OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 83°
Rematch from Week 7
Houston 14.5 (47.5)
Houston won at Oklahoma State this year (39-17)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Oklahoma State last year (39-17)
Oklahoma State beat Houston in 2023 (43-30)

  
HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23235665%27052597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)679661214.464
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005

OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zane Flores15526259%1454375.5
Sam Jackson356653%351125.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Fields Jr.12461415.041
Trenten Howland6324333.924
Sesi Vailahi4215223.614
Kalib Hicks (Tr)4412802.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Freeman5348149.133
Terrill Davis (Tr)29373012.941
Shamar Rigby (Tr)25351114.048
Rodney Fields Jr.2827619.963

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Robertson779115
Bryan McCoy (Tr)712041
Brandon Rawls685200
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)392101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)2712471
Malik Charles (Tr)283310
Taje Mccoy (Tr)214211
Jacobi Oliphant Jr.242211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kenneth Harris332115
Parker Robertson779115
Cam Smith341014