Houston at Oregon State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Friday, September 26th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Houston -11.5 (48.5) (-500) Open: -12.5
Houston 27 - Oregon State: 24

Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (31 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

HOU coming off BYE
ORST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Houston -12 (SP+ HOU -23.5)
Projected Score: HOU: 30 - ORST: 18 (49)
HOU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
HOU Travel: 1834 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Beavers (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
HOU Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Houston vs Stephen F. Austin	-24.5	54.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Houston at Rice	-13.5	38.5	W 35 - 9	O	Y
Fri 9/12	Houston vs Colorado	-4.0	45.5	W 36 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26	Houston at Oregon State	-11.5	48.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/4	Houston vs Texas Tech	+13.5	51.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/11	Houston at Oklahoma State	-14.5	47.5	W 39 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Houston vs Arizona	+1.5	47.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Houston at Arizona State	+7.0	46.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Houston vs West Virginia	-13.5	48.5	L 35 - 45	O	N
Fri 11/7	Houston at UCF	+1.5	47.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Houston vs TCU	+1.5	55.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/29	Houston at Baylor	+2.5	57.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 12/27	Houston vs LSU	-1.5	43.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oregon State vs California	-3.0	51.5	L 15 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/6	Oregon State vs Fresno State	-1.0	45.5	L 27 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/13	Oregon State at Texas Tech	+24.5	61.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Sat 9/20	Oregon State at Oregon	+33.5	58.5	L 7 - 41	U	N
Fri 9/26	Oregon State vs Houston	+11.5	48.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Oregon State at App State	+1.5	53.5	L 23 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	Oregon State vs Wake Forest	+1.5	47.5	L 14 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/18	Oregon State vs Lafayette	-21.0	56.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Oregon State vs Washington State	+3.5	47.5	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Oregon State vs Sam Houston	-21.0	52.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/15	Oregon State at Tulsa	+1.5	50.5	L 14 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Oregon State at Washington State	+14.0	42.5	L 8 - 32	U	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)	29.1	35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)	22.8	40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)	17.6	47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)	29.4	50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Offense	12	29.1	31	35.3%	2.57	2.3	15	289	137	153	3.9	57%	42%	35%	37%	21%	-
ORST Defense	12	29.4	25.3	48%	4.35	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	50%	45%	13%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Defense	12	22.8	19.5	39.6%	3.52	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	39%	18%	.14
ORST Offense	12	17.6	21.7	43.6%	3.87	1.3	22	391	189	201	4.7	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Houston	12	30:10	15.1	28%	38%	5.5	51.9	2.3	1.6	5.6	1.8	2	27.7
Oregon State	12	33:09	22.3	44%	52%	5.1	45.7	1.3	1	3.8	0.6	1	24.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Offense	12	57% (22)	35% (130)	35.5	136.6	3.9	9 (125)	(122)	2.52 (129)	64% (119)	16% (132)	1.01 (49)
ORST Defense	12	56% (125)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.23 (120)	3.39 (123)	81% (114)	8% (122)	0.96 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Defense	12	51% (76)	40% (41)	-	-	-	-	.06 (34)	2.8 (35)	69% (41)	12% (27)	1 (75)
ORST Offense	12	55% (33)	47% (25)	40.3	189.2	4.7	29 (18)	.22 (25)	3.34 (20)	76% (46)	9% (50)	0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Offense	12	42% (114)	37% (115)	15.2	23.3	152.7	6.5	10.1	9 (128)	17 (127)	.02 (131)	1.4 (122)	35% (120)	20% (133)	-.04 (134)	5% (45)	1.7 (130)
ORST Defense	12	44% (13)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.31 (104)	1.5 (41)	27% (126)	33% (102)	.46 (121)	6% (75)	2.1 (70)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Defense	12	49% (62)	39% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.23 (68)	1.7 (95)	33% (54)	32% (96)	.32 (79)	6% (71)	2 (55)
ORST Offense	12	45% (101)	39% (100)	18	30	201.4	6.7	11.2	7 (130)	11 (72)	.09 (125)	1.4 (123)	28% (20)	31% (78)	.16 (123)	6% (84)	1.8 (124)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 3.88 #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84 #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96 #52
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 3.88 Oregon State: -6.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.4 Oregon State: -15.9

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -6.48 #73
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 8.61 #96
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 10.67 #49
2025 Talent Rating: 772.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Oregon State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Oregon State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #126
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #125
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #96

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Houston 30
Oregon State 18

Projected Total Points: 49

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/26	Oregon State	24	Houston	27	Houston -11.5	Oregon State	48.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	0	1	1 Overs
Houston	1	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#53) HOU at (#73) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HOU	ORST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#53	#73
SP+SP+	#40	#126
Perf GradeGrade	#46	#124
OffenseOff	#73	#118
DefenseDef	#21	#106
Spec TeamsST	#83	#136
TalentTal	#58	#61
Blue ChipsBC%	#46	#65

Houston Notes(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report

Oregon State Notes(11/28) Hired Bama Co-OC JaMarcus Shepard as HC
(11/10) Interim HC Robb Akey fired? That's new
(11/10) OC Ryan Gunderson now interim HC
(10/19) QB Murphy benched vs FCS Laf. Were losing at half
(10/12) HC Bray fired after 0-7 start
(10/7) 2 heart breaking L's, Off is improving, WR Walker great
(8/31) Murphy meh, Run Off awful, Pass Def torched
(7/31) RB Hankerson a great back, have depth
(7/31) Bray 1st yr finished 1-6. Will DC this year
(7/31) Schedule front loaded but lots of rebuild opps
(7/31) OC Gunderson great QB coach, 1st time OC
(7/31) DL lacks exp, will struggle up front both lines
Oregon State Injury Report

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ORST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#73	#106
SuccessSuc	#129	#125
ExplosiveExp	#109	#31
PPAPPA	#133	#117
PowerPwr	#57	#49
SP+SP+	#44	#96
Pts POPPO	#134	#117
HavocHav	#130	#115

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#50	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	#126
Run ExplRExp	#49	#55
PPAExp	#122	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#116	#108
TackleTak	-	#128

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#104	#101
Pass SuccessPSuc	#115	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#41
PPAExp	#131	#104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#125	#84
F7 HavocF7	#132	#122
DB HavocDB	#45	#75

Oregon State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	HOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#118	#21
SuccessSuc	#59	#41
ExplosiveExp	#124	#94
PPAPPA	#87	#51
PowerPwr	#96	#52
SP+SP+	#125	#46
Pts POPPO	#75	#41
HavocHav	#56	#46

Oregon State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#121	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#41
Run ExplRExp	#65	#75
PPAExp	#25	#34
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#35
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#38
TackleTak	-	#18

Oregon State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#95
PPAExp	#125	#68
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#116
F7 HavocF7	#50	#27
DB HavocDB	#84	#71

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Houston 11.5 (48.5)
Houston won at Oregon State this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Oregon State last year (27-24)

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)	232	356	65%	2705	25	9	7.6
Zeon Chriss	10	21	48%	108	1	1	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors (Tr)	200	977	6	4.9	54
Conner Weigman (Tr)	170	703	11	4.1	50
DJ Butler	68	301	0	4.4	15
Stacy Sneed	37	130	0	3.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)	67	966	12	14.4	64
Tanner Koziol (Tr)	74	727	6	9.8	50
Stephon Johnson Jr.	13	275	2	21.2	74
Dean Connors (Tr)	34	254	3	7.5	33

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Garner	76	4	2	4	2
Carlos Allen	72	8	2	0	3
Kentrell Webb	71	3	0	0	4
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	64	12	7	9	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	64	12	7	9	5
Brandon Mack	32	6	5	1	0
Corey Platt Jr.	41	5	3	2	2
Wrook Brown (Tr)	49	6	3	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Latrell McCutchin	52	3	1	8
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)	19	0	0	7
Will James (Tr)	39	4	0	5

ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	160	276	58%	1802	9	8	6.5
Gabarri Johnson	62	100	62%	501	2	3	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson	247	1088	9	4.4	65
Cornell Hatcher Jr.	52	292	2	5.6	42
Gabarri Johnson	34	119	1	3.5	52
Salahadin Allah	19	71	0	3.7	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	68	823	2	12.1	43
David Wells Jr.	44	466	4	10.6	56
Tastean Reddicks	30	391	0	13.0	37
Bryce Caufield	29	219	1	7.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	78	0	0	2	4
Aiden Sullivan	72	7	1	5	1
Jaheim Patterson	67	1	0	1	4
Dexter Foster	52	3	0	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jojo Johnson	18	7	3	8	0
Jacob Schuster	14	2	2	0	2
Takari Hickle	38	5	2	5	0
Shamar Meikle	28	6	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jalil Tucker	25	1	1	5
Sailasa Vadrawale	31	1	1	5
Trey Glasper	23	2	0	5