Houston at Oregon State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR

Cougars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 14 - 23 (13 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#73)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)

HOU coming off BYE
ORST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Houston -1.5 (SP+ HOU -3.5)
Projected Score: HOU: 25 - ORST: 23 (46)
HOU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
HOU Travel: 1834 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Beavers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 4.8 (#48)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
HOU Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Houston vs Stephen F. Austin	-24
Sat 9/6	Houston at Rice	-15
Sat 9/13	Houston vs Colorado	+1
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Houston at Oregon State	-1.5
Sat 10/4	Houston vs Texas Tech	+9
Sat 10/11	Houston at Oklahoma State	+0.5
Sat 10/18	Houston vs Arizona	-5.5
Sat 10/25	Houston at Arizona State	+16.5
Sat 11/1	Houston vs West Virginia	-4
Sat 11/8	Houston at UCF	+0.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Houston vs TCU	+8
Sat 11/29	Houston at Baylor	+11

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oregon State vs California	-3.0	51.5
Sat 9/6	Oregon State vs Fresno State	-6
Sat 9/13	Oregon State at Texas Tech	+18
Sat 9/20	Oregon State at Oregon	+32.5
Sat 9/27	Oregon State vs Houston	+1.5
Sat 10/4	Oregon State at App State	-8
Sat 10/11	Oregon State vs Wake Forest	-6
Sat 10/18	Oregon State vs Lafayette	-20
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Oregon State vs Washington State	-9.5
Sat 11/8	Oregon State vs Sam Houston	-17
Sat 11/15	Oregon State at Tulsa	-12
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Oregon State at Washington State	-4.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)	14	35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)	22.9	40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)	24.3	47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)	29.9	50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Offense	12	14	12.6	35.3%	2.57	2.3	15	289	137	153	3.9	57%	42%	35%	37%	21%	-
ORST Defense	12	29.9	30.1	48%	4.35	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	50%	45%	13%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Defense	12	22.9	25.2	39.6%	3.52	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	39%	18%	.14
ORST Offense	12	24.3	29.7	43.6%	3.87	1.3	22	391	189	201	4.7	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Houston	12	30:10	15.1	28%	38%	5.5	51.9	2.3	1.6	5.6	1.8	2	27.7
Oregon State	12	33:09	22.3	44%	52%	5.1	45.7	1.3	1	3.8	0.6	1	24.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Offense	12	57% (22)	35% (130)	35.5	136.6	3.9	9 (125)	(122)	2.52 (129)	64% (119)	16% (132)	1.01 (49)
ORST Defense	12	56% (125)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.23 (120)	3.39 (123)	81% (114)	8% (122)	0.96 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Defense	12	51% (76)	40% (41)	-	-	-	-	.06 (34)	2.8 (35)	69% (41)	12% (27)	1 (75)
ORST Offense	12	55% (33)	47% (25)	40.3	189.2	4.7	29 (18)	.22 (25)	3.34 (20)	76% (46)	9% (50)	0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Offense	12	42% (114)	37% (115)	15.2	23.3	152.7	6.5	10.1	9 (128)	17 (127)	.02 (131)	1.4 (122)	35% (120)	20% (133)	-.04 (134)	5% (45)	1.7 (130)
ORST Defense	12	44% (13)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.31 (104)	1.5 (41)	27% (126)	33% (102)	.46 (121)	6% (75)	2.1 (70)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Defense	12	49% (62)	39% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.23 (68)	1.7 (95)	33% (54)	32% (96)	.32 (79)	6% (71)	2 (55)
ORST Offense	12	45% (101)	39% (100)	18	30	201.4	6.7	11.2	7 (130)	11 (72)	.09 (125)	1.4 (123)	28% (20)	31% (78)	.16 (123)	6% (84)	1.8 (124)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 0.52 #65
Houston's Offense Rating: 10.75 #89
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.23 #38
2025 Talent Rating: 748.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #44
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #58
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #91
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #36

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 769.5
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 0.52 Oregon State: -0.825

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 0.9 Oregon State: -2.4

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -0.825 #79
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 13.86 #69
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 18.11 #88
2025 Talent Rating: 758.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #70
Oregon State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.2 - 4.8
Oregon State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.4 #73
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #56
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.3 #85

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 669
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74

Houston Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Houston 25
Oregon State 23

Projected Total Points: 46

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.1

Oregon State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	0	0	0 Overs
Houston	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#65) Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.52 #65
Offense Rating: 10.75 #89
Defense Rating: 10.23 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #58
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #91
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #36
Talent Rating: 748.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #44
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.57 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Good in Scoring Position 3.52 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Houston Notes
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key
(5/13) TE Koziol (Ball St) huge add, @ Wisc in spring
(4/4) CB Jeremiah Wilson a top 10 CB via PFF
(3/21) QB Weigman is talented. Could be great fit
(3/21) RB bad LY. Connors (Rice) good add. Some depth
(3/21) WR bad LY. Broussard/Thomas portals help

Houston Ratings Matchup Oregon State

Power #65

#79

Off #89

#69

Def #38

#88

Talent #61

#58

SP+ #58

#73

SP+ Off #91

#56

SP+ Def #36

#85

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: HOU | ORST
Depth Chart: HOU | ORST
Rosters: HOU | ORST

(#79) Oregon State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.825 #79
Offense Rating: 13.86 #69
Defense Rating: 18.11 #88
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.4 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #56
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.3 #85
Talent Rating: 758.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #70
Expected Record: 7.2 - 4.8

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.35 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Oregon State Notes
(5/10) QB G Johnson is fast and will get packages
(5/10) OL is a big concern. Depth, Spring injuries
(5/10) Big TEs, but looking for deep ball w/ WR core
(5/10) DC Heyward left for Cal DBs? Bray will DC TY
(5/10) Schedule really front loaded, rough start
(5/10) OC Gunderson 1st time calling plays
(3/22) RB Hankerson (1k LY) back, Allah has exp
(3/22) WR returns most, Walker + TE Terry.
(3/22) Def bad LY, returns a lot. Needs DE/CB
(3/22) Bray 1st yr finished 1-6. Team looks better TY

Houston's OC Slade Nagle

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zeon Chriss	83	130	64%	824	4	8	6.3
Conner Weigman (Tr)	64	114	56%	819	3	5	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors (Tr)	159	780	9	4.9	71
Re'Shaun Sanford II	94	444	1	4.7	38
Zeon Chriss	113	381	4	3.4	71
Stacy Sneed	60	308	1	5.1	65

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol (Tr)	94	839	8	8.9	33
Amare Thomas (Tr)	62	670	8	10.8	73
Harvey Broussard (Tr)	31	486	3	15.7	50
Dean Connors (Tr)	61	472	2	7.7	69

View Houston's Full Roster

Houston's DC Austin Armstrong

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carmycah Glass (Tr)	75	4	1	3	0
Blake Thompson (Tr)	60	3	0	0	3
Kentrell Webb	54	1	0	0	3
Wrook Brown (Tr)	48	1	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	30	6	5	3	1
Khalil Laufau (Tr)	15	4	3	0	1
Joshua Donald (Tr)	31	6	3	1	0
Brandon Mack	39	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Keany Parks (Tr)	41	1	0	7
Marc Stampley II (Tr)	42	2	2	7
Will James (Tr)	35	2	0	7

Oregon State's OC Ryan Gunderson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Gabarri Johnson	15	29	52%	174	0	1	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21
Marquis Crosby (Tr)	57	224	1	3.9	31
Gabarri Johnson	26	106	1	4.1	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons	25	292	2	11.7	44
Tastean Reddicks	17	222	0	13.1	29

View Oregon State's Full Roster

Oregon State's DC Trent Bray

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Tyrice Ivy Jr.	35	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Oluwaseyi Omotosho	14	1	1	6	0
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	0	0	4
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3