Houston at Rice - 2025 Matchup Preview
Houston logo Houston Cougars at Rice OwlsRice logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Houston -13.5 (38.5) (-550)  Open: -13.5 | 41.5
Houston 35 - Rice: 9

 
Cougars (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 10 (35 - 9 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Houston -13.5   (SP+ HOU -19)
Projected Score: HOU: 28 - RICE: 14 (42)
HOU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
HOU Travel: 4 miles
Owls (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 21 (24 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 7.2 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
 
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Houston at Oregon State-5.5
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+16
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-8
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.5
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+12.5
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-0.5
Sat 11/8 Houston at UCF+4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+10.5
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Rice's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Rice at Louisiana+14.549.5W 14 - 12UY
Sat 9/6 Rice vs Houston+13.538.5L 9 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Rice vs Prairie View A&M-29.548.5W 38 - 17ON
Thu 9/18 Rice at Charlotte-2.542.5
Sat 9/27 Rice at Navy+14.5
Sat 10/4 Rice vs Florida Atlantic-0.5
Sat 10/11 Rice at UTSA+13.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Rice vs UConn+11.5
Fri 10/31 Rice vs Memphis+23
Sat 11/8 Rice vs UAB-6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Rice vs North Texas+12.5
Sat 11/29 Rice at South Florida+16.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Rice's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#95 (.13)36% (120)32.734% (120)2.69 (98)20239% (98)1873.67 (86)#18 (-.04)29% (8)9.736% (47)23% (4)5.17 (125)4102
RICE#133 (-.03)38% (106)20.344% (76)2.94 (73)24321% (135)703.43 (99)#60 (.11)29% (10)21.333% (24)26% (8)3.38 (62)52.70.70.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
RICE#126 (.05)35% (127)36% (127)2.7 (118)11535% (121)2393.27 (119)#60 (.16)37% (11)40% (37)34% (4)3.72 (62)57.41.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense332.73535.9%3.670183902021874.561%39%34%39%11%.13
RICE Defense321.32629.3%3.380.7 - - - - - 54%44%33%26%14%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense39.7929.1%5.172 - - - - - 51%47%36%23%18%-.04
RICE Offense320.323.538.1%3.430.721313243704.477%21%44%21%13%-.03

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston332:5617.745%40%4.741025.32.7136.5
Rice335:1020.737%43%552.70.70.762.7030.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense361% (17)34% (120)45.3202.34.56 (49)-.03 (116)2.69 (98)65% (95)7% (32)1.07 (47)
RICE Defense354% (102)33% (24) - - - - .09 (81)2.89 (80)55% (24)9% (92)1.31 (124)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense351% (80)36% (47) - - - - -.04 (38)2.28 (26)78% (100)10% (69)0.87 (52)
RICE Offense377% (3)44% (76)56243.34.46 (49)-.06 (124)2.94 (73)75% (52)11% (109)0.61 (132)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense339% (122)39% (98)15.324.3187.37.712.24 (72)0 (1).38 (51)2.1 (4)36% (117)34% (52).46 (49)4% (39)2.2 (36)
RICE Defense344% (32)26% (8) - - - - - - 1 (87).16 (53)2.1 (134)38% (22)32% (88).48 (112)6% (72)2.3 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense347% (40)23% (4) - - - - - - 5 (6).01 (22)1.4 (49)39% (13)14% (11).05 (26)8% (30)2.2 (101)
RICE Offense321% (134)21% (135)1013.7705.172 (102)1 (23).12 (113)1.7 (32)32% (81)14% (134)-.09 (133)2% (8)1.9 (81)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 3.11 #72
Houston's Offense Rating: 5.45 #100
Houston's Defense Rating: 2.34 #38
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #75
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 3.11   Rice: -7.93

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.8   Rice: -11.2




Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -7.93 #104
Rice's Offense Rating: -0.23 #133
Rice's Defense Rating: 9.43 #78
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2 #109
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #125
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #83

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Houston Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 9.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 9

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Houston 28
Rice 14


Total Points: 42

Rice Scoring
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.5
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Rice9Houston35HoustonHouston -13.5Houston38.5Over
202409/14Houston33Rice7HoustonHouston -3.5Houston43.5Under
202309/09Rice43Houston41RiceHouston -7.5Rice51.0Over
202209/24Houston34Rice27HoustonHouston -17.5Rice52.5Over
202109/11Rice7Houston44HoustonHouston -7.5Houston50.0Over
201809/01Rice27Houston45HoustonHouston -25.5Rice55.5Over
201709/16Houston38Rice3HoustonHouston -23Houston53.5Under
201309/21Rice26Houston31HoustonRice -4Houston0
201209/29Rice14Houston35Houston
201110/27Houston73Rice34Houston
201010/16Rice34Houston31Rice
200911/28Houston73Rice14Houston
200811/29Rice56Houston42Rice
200710/13Houston56Rice48Houston
200609/02Rice30Houston31Houston
200511/26Houston35Rice18Houston
200409/05Rice10Houston7Rice
200308/30Houston48Rice14Houston
200208/31Rice10Houston24Houston
200109/01Houston14Rice21Rice
200009/01Rice30Houston27Rice
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Rice635 Overs
Houston1552 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 84 - 42 - 22 - 2
Road Teams8 - 134 - 42 - 22 - 2

(#72) Houston Info
Power Rating: 3.11 #72
Offense Rating: 5.45 #100
Defense Rating: 2.34 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.67 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.17 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Great Pass Def Success 23%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Houston has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Houston Notes
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key
(5/13) TE Koziol (Ball St) huge add, @ Wisc in spring
(4/4) CB Jeremiah Wilson a top 10 CB via PFF
(3/21) QB Weigman is talented. Could be great fit

Houston Highlights
Houston is Undefeated vs Spread
Houston in Undefeated

Houston offense is explosive (#16)
Houston offense is good on 3rd downs
Houston has a really good defense (#8)
Houston defense does not give up big plays (#27)
Houston has a good pass defense (#4)
Houston Defensive Line is very good (#26)
Houston Secondary is very good (#30)
Houston has a great TO Margin (#1)
Houston defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Houston Deficiencies
Houston offense is really bad (#120)
Houston run game is really bad (#120)
Houston has a bad red zone defense (#125)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatRICEHOU
OverallOver#65#29
OffenseOff#55#72
DefenseDef#76#8
Special TeamsST#81#8
PassingPass#48#92
RushingRush#61#62
Run BlockRBLK#51#27
Pass BlockPBLK#101#116
Route RunningWR Rt#58#52
TacklingTkl#26#4
Run DefenseR Def#97#16
Pass Rush DefPRush#40#84
Coverage DefCov#55#2

Rematch from Week 2
Houston 13.5 (38.5)
Houston won at Rice this year (35-9)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Rice last year (33-7)
Rice beat Houston in 2023 (43-41)
Houston beat Rice in 2022 (34-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: HOU | RICE
Depth Chart: HOU | RICE
Rosters: HOU | RICE
(#104) Rice Info
Power Rating: -7.93 #104
Offense Rating: -0.23 #133
Defense Rating: 9.43 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2 #109
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #125
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #83
Talent Rating: 554.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2

Team Profile
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.43 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Awful Pass Success 21%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.38 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Great Pass Def Success 26%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Rice has won 1 straight
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Rice Notes
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
(3/24) HC Abell ran a gun-option system @ Davidson
(3/24) RB - Jackson/Atkins some exp. #1 left (Hou)
(3/24) WR rebuild. Welker/Dickman some exp
(3/24) OL 3/5 back. Bad LY. Took 1 portal

Rice Highlights
Rice has Really Good Running Game (#9)
Rice has a really good defense (#10)
Rice has a good run defense (#24)
Rice has a good pass defense (#8)
Rice has a great TO Margin (#28)

Rice Deficiencies
Rice has a really bad Offense
Rice offense is really bad (#106)
Rice offense is not Explosive (#136)
Rice pass game is really bad (#135)
Rice gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#133)
Rice Does Not Stuff Runs (#115)


  
Houston's OC Slade Nagle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)457064%569408.1
Zeon Chriss1333%-700-2.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)5027135.454
Conner Weigman (Tr)3314534.449
Stacy Sneed2510104.016
J'Marion Burnette104004.012
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.6191131.874
Tanner Koziol (Tr)1714818.723
Amare Thomas (Tr)8110113.822
J'Marion Burnette139139.039

View Houston's Full Roster
Houston's DC Austin Armstrong
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner201010
Carlos Allen172001
Latrell McCutchin162001
Kentrell Webb132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)135211
Corey Platt Jr.72200
Brandon Mack72210
Khalil Laufau (Tr)81111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latreveon McCutchin80002
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)50002
Khalil Laufau (Tr)81111

Rice's OC Vince Munch
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chase Jenkins273773%182114.9
Drew Devillier3475%28107.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Jackson4621324.617
Daelen Alexander3214904.716
Chase Jenkins4714423.121
Aaron Turner889211.152
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Drayden Dickmann118407.623
Landon Ransom-Goelz457114.334
Aaron Turner73304.713
Tyson Thompson32919.722

View Rice's Full Roster
Rice's DC Jon Kay
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Anthony Morris202100
Andrew Awe183100
Jack Kane (Tr)150001
Peyton Stevenson132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Daley63202
Joseph Mutombo32210
Ty Anthony Morris202100
Cooper King31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khary Crump80004
Michael Daley63202
Omari Porter60002