Houston at Rice - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Houston -13.5 (38.5) (-550) Open: -13.5 | 41.5
Houston 35 - Rice: 9

Cougars (8 - 2) (7 - 3 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 22 (31 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: Houston -11.5 (SP+ HOU -18.5)
Projected Score: HOU: 27 - RICE: 16 (43)
HOU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
HOU Travel: 4 miles

Owls (5 - 5) (5 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 28 (24 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#96)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
HOU Players
RICE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Houston vs Stephen F. Austin	-24.5	54.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Houston at Rice	-13.5	38.5	W 35 - 9	O	Y
Fri 9/12	Houston vs Colorado	-4.0	45.5	W 36 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26	Houston at Oregon State	-11.5	48.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/4	Houston vs Texas Tech	+13.5	51.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/11	Houston at Oklahoma State	-14.5	47.5	W 39 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Houston vs Arizona	+1.5	47.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Houston at Arizona State	+7.0	46.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Houston vs West Virginia	-13.5	48.5	L 35 - 45	O	N
Fri 11/7	Houston at UCF	+1.5	47.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Houston vs TCU	+7.5
Sat 11/29	Houston at Baylor	+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Rice's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Rice at Louisiana	+14.5	49.5	W 14 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Rice vs Houston	+13.5	38.5	L 9 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/13	Rice vs Prairie View A&M	-29.5	48.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Thu 9/18	Rice at Charlotte	-1.5	41.5	W 28 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Rice at Navy	+14.0	45.5	L 13 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Rice vs Florida Atlantic	-4.5	54.5	L 21 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	Rice at UTSA	+8.5	48.5	L 13 - 61	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Rice vs UConn	+10.5	48.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Fri 10/31	Rice vs Memphis	+13.5	48.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/8	Rice vs UAB	+1.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Rice vs North Texas	+12.5
Sat 11/29	Rice at South Florida	+26.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Rice's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#106 (.11)	40% (101)	29.5	38% (118)	2.32 (118)	146	43% (57)	200	3.68 (88)	#49 (.12)	39% (45)	22.1	44% (88)	35% (16)	4.15 (103)	41.1	0.8	0.9
RICE	#118 (.07)	39% (114)	21.1	41% (91)	2.76 (78)	192	35% (128)	93	3.23 (112)	#76 (.15)	37% (19)	27.9	38% (30)	36% (21)	3.46 (46)	47.7	0.6	0.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)		35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)		40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6
RICE	#126 (.05)	35% (127)		36% (127)	2.7 (118)	115	35% (121)	239	3.27 (119)	#60 (.16)	37% (11)		40% (37)	34% (4)	3.72 (62)	57.4	1.8	1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Offense	10	29.5	31	40%	3.68	0.8	18	346	146	200	4	57%	42%	38%	43%	14%	.11
RICE Defense	10	27.9	28	36.9%	3.46	0.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	38%	36%	15%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Defense	10	22.1	18.6	39.4%	4.15	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	44%	35%	16%	.12
RICE Offense	10	21.1	23.8	38.9%	3.23	0.6	16	285	192	93	4.2	71%	28%	41%	35%	18%	.07

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Houston	10	27:48	18.3	42%	58%	4.8	41.1	0.8	0.9	4	2.1	1	32.2
Rice	10	29:05	15.5	36%	52%	4.4	47.7	0.6	0.6	4.7	1.7	0	26

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Offense	10	57% (20)	38% (118)	36.3	145.9	4	13 (78)	-.09 (135)	2.32 (118)	67% (96)	9% (47)	0.84 (124)
RICE Defense	10	49% (58)	38% (30)	-	-	-	-	.08 (68)	1.6 (2)	63% (30)	9% (85)	1.23 (133)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Defense	10	51% (82)	44% (88)	-	-	-	-	.06 (55)	2.39 (31)	81% (125)	9% (90)	0.87 (30)
RICE Offense	10	71% (4)	41% (91)	45.3	192	4.2	17 (60)	.07 (86)	2.76 (78)	74% (54)	14% (134)	0.92 (83)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Offense	10	42% (116)	43% (57)	15.8	24.9	199.8	8	12.7	17 (50)	5 (20)	.36 (37)	1.8 (9)	31% (62)	27% (104)	.2 (103)	6% (57)	2.1 (31)
RICE Defense	10	50% (73)	36% (21)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (100)	.24 (74)	1.9 (132)	34% (27)	31% (90)	.46 (128)	6% (84)	2.5 (135)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Defense	10	47% (43)	35% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (38)	.2 (56)	1.5 (54)	32% (75)	22% (5)	.21 (40)	7% (40)	2.1 (105)
RICE Offense	10	28% (133)	35% (128)	10.1	14.9	92.9	6.2	9.2	7 (121)	3 (7)	.1 (123)	1.4 (101)	32% (76)	21% (135)	.07 (129)	4% (14)	2 (66)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 1.06 #71
Houston's Offense Rating: 6.30 #88
Houston's Defense Rating: 5.24 #52
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.3 #49
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #63
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #42

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 1.06 Rice: -7.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 6.3 Rice: -12.4

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -7.71 #103
Rice's Offense Rating: 0.10 #128
Rice's Defense Rating: 8.12 #75
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.4 #117
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #121
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #96

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Houston 27
Rice 16

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Rice 26
Houston 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Houston 29
Rice 22

Total Points: 51

Rice Scoring
Offense: 21.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.8
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 28

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Rice	9	Houston	35	Houston -13.5	Houston	38.5	Over
2024	09/14	Houston	33	Rice	7	Houston -3.5	Houston	43.5	Under
2023	09/09	Rice	43	Houston	41	Houston -7.5	Rice	51.0	Over
2022	09/24	Houston	34	Rice	27	Houston -17.5	Rice	52.5	Over
2021	09/11	Rice	7	Houston	44	Houston -7.5	Houston	50.0	Over
2018	09/01	Rice	27	Houston	45	Houston -25.5	Rice	55.5	Over
2017	09/16	Houston	38	Rice	3	Houston -23	Houston	53.5	Under
2013	09/21	Rice	26	Houston	31	Rice -4	Houston	0
2012	09/29	Rice	14	Houston	35
2011	10/27	Houston	73	Rice	34
2010	10/16	Rice	34	Houston	31
2009	11/28	Houston	73	Rice	14
2008	11/29	Rice	56	Houston	42
2007	10/13	Houston	56	Rice	48
2006	09/02	Rice	30	Houston	31
2005	11/26	Houston	35	Rice	18
2004	09/05	Rice	10	Houston	7
2003	08/30	Houston	48	Rice	14
2002	08/31	Rice	10	Houston	24
2001	09/01	Houston	14	Rice	21
2000	09/01	Rice	30	Houston	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Rice	6	3	5 Overs
Houston	15	5	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 8	4 - 4	2 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 13	4 - 4	2 - 2	2 - 2

(#71) HOU at (#103) RICE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HOU	RICE
Power RatePwr	#71	#103
SP+SP+	#49	#117
Perf GradeGrade	#49	#110
OffenseOff	#76	#100
DefenseDef	#27	#105
Spec TeamsST	#22	#115
TalentTal	#58	#107
Blue ChipsBC%	#46	#101

Houston Notes(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
Houston Injury Report

Rice Notes(10/25) Huge W over UConn, 300 yds rushing, 4 TDs
(10/24) Down to QB4? Won't know QB1 till UConn game
(9/18) Option team w/ a good punter. Love 'em
(9/18) Team is really undersized, but play hard
(9/18) QB Jenkins can scoot, but passing not strong
(8/30) 200+ yds rushing in huge W over Louisiana
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
Rice Injury Report

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	RICE Def
Perf GradePerf	#76	#105
SuccessSuc	#101	#19
ExplosiveExp	#47	#136
PPAPPA	#106	#76
PowerPwr	#88	#75
SP+SP+	#63	#96
Pts POPPO	#88	#46
HavocHav	#52	#87

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	RICE Def
Run GameRun	#74	#100
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#30
Run ExplRExp	#124	#133
PPAExp	#135	#68
Run BlockR Blk	#65	-
OL YdsOLY	#118	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#103
TackleTak	-	#69

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	RICE Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#21
Pass ExplPExl	#9	#132
PPAExp	#37	#74
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#42
F7 HavocF7	#47	#85
DB HavocDB	#57	#84

Rice on Offense

Option Offense 72%, Pass: 27%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	HOU Def
Perf GradePerf	#100	#27
SuccessSuc	#114	#45
ExplosiveExp	#131	#20
PPAPPA	#118	#49
PowerPwr	#128	#52
SP+SP+	#121	#42
Pts POPPO	#112	#103
HavocHav	#110	#76

Rice Run Game

Option Offense 72%, Pass: 27%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#104	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	#91	#88
Run ExplRExp	#83	#30
PPAExp	#86	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#90	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#89	#68
TackleTak	-	#31

Rice Pass Game

Option Offense 72%, Pass: 27%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	#128	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#101	#54
PPAExp	#123	#56
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#123	#117
F7 HavocF7	#134	#90
DB HavocDB	#14	#40

Program Comparison
RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 88° - Wind: 5 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Houston 13.5 (38.5)
Houston won at Rice this year (35-9)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Rice last year (33-7)
Rice beat Houston in 2023 (43-41)
Houston beat Rice in 2022 (34-27)

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)	168	259	65%	2113	18	7	8.2
Zeon Chriss	10	21	48%	108	1	1	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors (Tr)	158	725	4	4.6	54
Conner Weigman (Tr)	120	412	9	3.4	50
DJ Butler	42	194	0	4.6	15
Stacy Sneed	34	126	0	3.7	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)	45	737	8	16.4	64
Tanner Koziol (Tr)	56	570	5	10.2	50
Stephon Johnson Jr.	13	275	2	21.2	74
Dean Connors (Tr)	23	173	2	7.5	33

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Garner	62	4	2	4	1
Carlos Allen	59	6	1	0	2
Kentrell Webb	53	2	0	0	2
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	46	9	6	7	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	46	9	6	7	5
Brandon Mack	22	5	4	1	0
Wrook Brown (Tr)	39	6	3	0	1
Corey Platt Jr.	35	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)	17	0	0	0	7
Latrell McCutchin	41	2	0	0	6
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	46	9	6	7	5

RICE's OC Vince Munch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chase Jenkins	99	142	70%	885	8	2	6.2
Drew Devillier	7	12	58%	58	1	0	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Jackson	148	758	6	5.1	73
Chase Jenkins	124	422	4	3.4	34
Daelen Alexander	74	392	3	5.3	57
DAndre Hardeman Jr.	58	221	2	3.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Drayden Dickmann	33	302	3	9.2	46
Aaron Turner	38	217	2	5.7	32
Tyson Thompson	8	105	2	13.1	37
Quinton Jackson	4	74	1	18.5	75

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Jon Kay (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Awe	66	7	3	1	2
Ty Anthony Morris	58	8	3	3	2
Marcus Williams	50	4	0	1	5
Tony Anyanwu	41	6	5	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tony Anyanwu	41	6	5	3	1
Michael Daley	15	5	5	2	2
Andrew Awe	66	7	3	1	2
Ty Anthony Morris	58	8	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Khary Crump	14	0	0	6
Marcus Williams	50	4	1	5
Omari Porter	24	1	1	4