Houston at Rice - 2025 Matchup Preview
Houston logo   Houston Cougars at Rice Owls  Rice logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Houston -13.5 (38.5) (-550)  Open: -13.5 | 41.5
Houston 35 - Rice: 9

 
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (31 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Houston -19  (SP+ HOU -22)
Projected Score: HOU: 32 - RICE: 13 (45)
HOU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
HOU Travel: 4 miles
Owls (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 33 (24 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 7.9 (#85)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
 
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.547.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7.046.5W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-13.548.5L 35 - 45ON
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+1.555.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+2.557.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 12/27 Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Rice's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Rice at Louisiana+14.549.5W 14 - 12UY
Sat 9/6 Rice vs Houston+13.538.5L 9 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Rice vs Prairie View A&M-29.548.5W 38 - 17ON
Thu 9/18 Rice at Charlotte-1.541.5W 28 - 17OY
Sat 9/27 Rice at Navy+14.045.5L 13 - 21UY
Sat 10/4 Rice vs Florida Atlantic-4.554.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 Rice at UTSA+8.548.5L 13 - 61ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Rice vs UConn+10.548.5W 37 - 34OY
Fri 10/31 Rice vs Memphis+13.548.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Rice vs UAB+1.551.5W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Rice vs North Texas+18.557.0L 24 - 56ON
Sat 11/29 Rice at South Florida+28.557.5L 3 - 52UN
Fri 1/2 Rice vs Texas State+19.555.5L 10 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Rice's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)29.135% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)22.840% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
RICE#126 (.05)35% (127)19.136% (127)2.7 (118)11535% (121)2393.27 (119)#60 (.16)37% (11)32.940% (37)34% (4)3.72 (62)57.41.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
RICE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense1229.13135.3%2.572.3152891371533.957%42%35%37%21%-
RICE Defense1232.93237%3.721 - - - - - 55%45%40%34%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense1222.819.539.6%3.521.6 - - - - - 51%49%40%39%18%.14
RICE Offense1219.123.935.5%3.271.8183541152394.637%62%36%35%20%.05

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston1230:1015.128%38%5.551.92.31.65.61.8227.7
Rice1228:4018.335%35%7.157.41.816.32.7232.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense1257% (22)35% (130)35.5136.63.99 (125) (122)2.52 (129)64% (119)16% (132)1.01 (49)
RICE Defense1255% (112)40% (37) - - - - .16 (85)3.06 (80)76% (83)11% (45)1.07 (103)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense1251% (76)40% (41) - - - - .06 (34)2.8 (35)69% (41)12% (27)1 (75)
RICE Offense1237% (132)36% (127)24.8114.54.614 (98)-.03 (126)2.7 (118)86% (3)10% (63)1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense1242% (114)37% (115)15.223.3152.76.510.19 (128)17 (127).02 (131)1.4 (122)35% (120)20% (133)-.04 (134)5% (45)1.7 (130)
RICE Defense1245% (24)34% (4) - - - - - - 8 (93).16 (33)1.7 (109)34% (30)24% (4).19 (23)6% (70)2.1 (81)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense1249% (62)39% (49) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (68)1.7 (95)33% (54)32% (96).32 (79)6% (71)2 (55)
RICE Offense1262% (4)35% (121)24.339.823969.817 (79)13 (103).11 (121)1.5 (97)38% (129)25% (119).17 (119)10% (133)1.9 (104)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 3.88  #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84  #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96  #52
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 3.88   Rice: -13.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.4   Rice: -14.8




Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -13.535  #126
Rice's Offense Rating: 2.31  #128
Rice's Defense Rating: 19.58  #105
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00  #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 7.9
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8  #120
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #119
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #112

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Houston 32
Rice 13


Projected Total Points: 45
Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.9
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Rice9Houston35Houston -13.5Houston38.5Over
202409/14Houston33Rice7Houston -3.5Houston43.5Under
202309/09Rice43Houston41Houston -7.5Rice51.0Over
202209/24Houston34Rice27Houston -17.5Rice52.5Over
202109/11Rice7Houston44Houston -7.5Houston50.0Over
201809/01Rice27Houston45Houston -25.5Rice55.5Over
201709/16Houston38Rice3Houston -23Houston53.5Under
201309/21Rice26Houston31Rice -4Houston0
201209/29Rice14Houston35
201110/27Houston73Rice34
201010/16Rice34Houston31
200911/28Houston73Rice14
200811/29Rice56Houston42
200710/13Houston56Rice48
200609/02Rice30Houston31
200511/26Houston35Rice18
200409/05Rice10Houston7
200308/30Houston48Rice14
200208/31Rice10Houston24
200109/01Houston14Rice21
200009/01Rice30Houston27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Rice635 Overs
Houston1552 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 84 - 42 - 22 - 2
Road Teams8 - 134 - 42 - 22 - 2

(#53) HOU at (#126) RICE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHOURICE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #53 #126
SP+SP+ #40 #120
Perf GradeGrade #46 #123
OffenseOff #73 #107
DefenseDef #21 #124
Spec TeamsST #83 #96
TalentTal #58 #107
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #101
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
Rice Notes
(10/25) Huge W over UConn, 300 yds rushing, 4 TDs
(10/24) Down to QB4? Won't know QB1 till UConn game
(9/18) Option team w/ a good punter. Love 'em
(9/18) Team is really undersized, but play hard
(9/18) QB Jenkins can scoot, but passing not strong
(8/30) 200+ yds rushing in huge W over Louisiana
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
Rice Injury Report
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffRICE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #73 #124
SuccessSuc #129 #11
ExplosiveExp #109 #99
PPAPPA #133 #60
PowerPwr #57 #105
SP+SP+ #44 #112
Pts POPPO #134 #62
HavocHav #130 #55
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffRICE Def
Run GameRun #50 #101
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #37
Run ExplRExp #49 #103
PPAExp #122 #85
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #129 #80
Stuff RateStuff #116 #110
TackleTak -  #115
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffRICE Def
Pass GamePass #104 #130
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #4
Pass ExplPExl #122 #109
PPAExp #131 #33
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #125 #76
F7 HavocF7 #132 #45
DB HavocDB #45 #70
Rice on Offense
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCatRICE OffHOU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #107 #21
SuccessSuc #127 #41
ExplosiveExp #36 #94
PPAPPA #126 #51
PowerPwr #128 #52
SP+SP+ #119 #46
Pts POPPO #119 #41
HavocHav #123 #46
Rice Run Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #129 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #41
Run ExplRExp #55 #75
PPAExp #126 #34
Run BlockR Blk #90 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #35
Stuff RateStuff #81 #38
TackleTak -  #18
Rice Pass Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCatRICE OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #77 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #49
Pass ExplPExl #97 #95
PPAExp #121 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #112 #116
F7 HavocF7 #63 #27
DB HavocDB #133 #71
Program Comparison
RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Houston 13.5 (38.5)
Houston won at Rice this year (35-9)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Rice last year (35-9)
Houston beat Rice in 2024 (33-7)
Rice beat Houston in 2023 (43-41)

  
HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23235665%27052597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)679661214.464
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005

RICE's OC Vince Munch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chase Jenkins11917269%1025926.0
Drew Devillier102148%123105.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Jackson18088964.973
Chase Jenkins15153153.534
Daelen Alexander7439235.357
DAndre Hardeman Jr.7630224.036
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Turner6339846.355
Drayden Dickmann3732338.746
Tyson Thompson8105213.137
Payton Matthews493023.354

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Jon Kay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Awe939432
Ty Anthony Morris799333
Tony Anyanwu638731
Marcus Williams614015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Anyanwu638731
Michael Daley155522
Andrew Awe939432
Ty Anthony Morris799333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omari Porter311018
Khary Crump140006
Marcus Williams614015