Stephen F. Austin at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Houston Cougars

Thursday, August 28th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Houston -24.5 (54.5) (-2200) Open: -22.5 | 55.5
Houston 27 - Stephen F. Austin: 0

Lumberjacks (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 0 - 27 (0 - 27 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Houston -8 (SP+ HOU -8)
HOU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%

Cougars (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 10 (32 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 6) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
SFA Players
HOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Stephen F. Austin's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Stephen F. Austin at Houston	+24.5	54.5	L 0 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Stephen F. Austin's Schedule

Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Houston vs Stephen F. Austin	-24.5	54.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Houston at Rice	-13.5	38.5	W 35 - 9	O	Y
Fri 9/12	Houston vs Colorado	-4.0	45.5	W 36 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Houston at Oregon State	-5.5
Sat 10/4	Houston vs Texas Tech	+16
Sat 10/11	Houston at Oklahoma State	-8
Sat 10/18	Houston vs Arizona	+1.5
Sat 10/25	Houston at Arizona State	+12.5
Sat 11/1	Houston vs West Virginia	-0.5
Sat 11/8	Houston at UCF	+4
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Houston vs TCU	+10.5
Sat 11/29	Houston at Baylor	+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SFA		0%	0	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	27	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HOU	#95 (.13)	36% (120)	32.7	34% (120)	2.69 (98)	202	39% (98)	187	3.67 (86)	#18 (-.04)	29% (8)	9.7	36% (47)	23% (4)	5.17 (125)	41	0	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)		35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)		40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SFA Offense	1	0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
HOU Defense	3	9.7	10	29.1%	5.17	2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	36%	23%	18%	-.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SFA Defense	1	27	27	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
HOU Offense	3	32.7	31.5	35.9%	3.67	0	18	390	202	187	4.5	61%	39%	34%	39%	11%	.13

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Stephen F. Austin	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Houston	3	32:56	17.7	45%	40%	4.7	41	0	2	5.3	2.7	1	36.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SFA Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
HOU Defense	3	51% (80)	36% (47)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (38)	2.28 (26)	78% (100)	10% (69)	0.87 (52)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SFA Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
HOU Offense	3	61% (17)	34% (120)	45.3	202.3	4.5	6 (49)	-.03 (116)	2.69 (98)	65% (95)	7% (32)	1.07 (47)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SFA Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
HOU Defense	3	47% (40)	23% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (6)	.01 (22)	1.4 (49)	39% (13)	14% (11)	.05 (26)	8% (30)	2.2 (101)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SFA Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
HOU Offense	3	39% (122)	39% (98)	15.3	24.3	187.3	7.7	12.2	4 (72)	0 (1)	.38 (51)	2.1 (4)	36% (117)	34% (52)	.46 (49)	4% (39)	2.2 (36)

Stephen F. Austin's Power Ratings
Stephen F. Austin's Power Rating: #NR
Stephen F. Austin's Offense Rating: #NR
Stephen F. Austin's Defense Rating: #NR
2025 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Stephen F. Austin's 2025 Expected Record: -
Stephen F. Austin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Stephen F. Austin's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Stephen F. Austin's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average Western Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Stephen F. Austin: Houston: 7.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stephen F. Austin: Houston: 7.8

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 7.955 #72
Houston's Offense Rating: 5.45 #100
Houston's Defense Rating: 2.34 #38
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #75
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Stephen F. Austin Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Stephen F. Austin's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Houston 26
Stephen F. Austin 18

Total Points: 45

Houston Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 9.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/28	Houston	27	Stephen F. Austin	0	Houston	Houston -24.5	Houston	54.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Houston	1	1	0 Overs
Stephen F. Austin	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#NR) Stephen F. Austin Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Stephen F. Austin Highlights

Stephen F. Austin Deficiencies
Stephen F. Austin has a really bad Offense

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	HOU	SFA
OverallOver	#29	—
OffenseOff	#72	—
DefenseDef	#8	—
Special TeamsST	#8	—
PassingPass	#92	—
RushingRush	#62	—
Run BlockRBLK	#27	—
Pass BlockPBLK	#116	—
Route RunningWR Rt	#52	—
TacklingTkl	#4	—
Run DefenseR Def	#16	—
Pass Rush DefPRush	#84	—
Coverage DefCov	#2	—

Rematch from Week 1
Houston -24.5 (54.5)
Houston won vs Stephen F. Austin this year (27-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SFA | HOU
Depth Chart: SFA | HOU
Rosters: SFA | HOU

(#72) Houston Info
Power Rating: 7.955 #72
Offense Rating: 5.45 #100
Defense Rating: 2.34 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.67 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.17 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 36%
Great Pass Def Success 23%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Houston Notes
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key
(5/13) TE Koziol (Ball St) huge add, @ Wisc in spring
(4/4) CB Jeremiah Wilson a top 10 CB via PFF
(3/21) QB Weigman is talented. Could be great fit

Houston Highlights
Houston is Undefeated vs Spread
Houston in Undefeated
Houston is Undefeated at Home
Houston is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Houston offense is explosive (#16)
Houston offense is good on 3rd downs
Houston has a really good defense (#8)
Houston defense does not give up big plays (#27)
Houston has a good pass defense (#4)
Houston Defensive Line is very good (#26)
Houston Secondary is very good (#30)
Houston has a great TO Margin (#1)
Houston defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Houston Deficiencies
Houston offense is really bad (#120)
Houston run game is really bad (#120)
Houston has a bad red zone defense (#125)

Stephen F. Austin's OC

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Vidlak	48	78	62%	508	2	2	6.5
Gavin Rutherford	8	11	73%	130	2	1	11.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Richard Reese (Tr)	17	99	1	5.8	58
Anthony Williams	19	85	1	4.5	16
Jerrell Wimbley	19	78	2	4.1	12
Braden Lewis	9	76	0	8.4	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kylon Harris	16	165	1	10.3	47
Blaine Green	10	85	1	8.5	23
Clayton Wayland	6	85	0	14.2	40
Richard Reese (Tr)	3	82	1	27.3	64

View Stephen F. Austin's Full Roster

Stephen F. Austin's DC

Top Def	Tack	TFL
Jaydon Southard	10	2
Brandon Washington	7	1
Kameron Reddic	5	0
Aaron Austin	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lowote Jurkin	3	1	1	1	1
Jaydon Southard	10	2	0	0	0
Sema'J Avery	2	0	0	0	0
Daniel Anenih	1	1	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lowote Jurkin	3	1	1	1	1
Michael Patterson	5	0	0	0	1
Ky Thomas	2	1	0	0	1

Houston's OC Slade Nagle

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)	45	70	64%	569	4	0	8.1
Zeon Chriss	1	3	33%	-7	0	0	-2.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors (Tr)	50	271	3	5.4	54
Conner Weigman (Tr)	33	145	3	4.4	49
Stacy Sneed	25	101	0	4.0	16
J'Marion Burnette	10	40	0	4.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.	6	191	1	31.8	74
Tanner Koziol (Tr)	17	148	1	8.7	23
Amare Thomas (Tr)	8	110	1	13.8	22
J'Marion Burnette	1	39	1	39.0	39

View Houston's Full Roster

Houston's DC Austin Armstrong

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jalen Garner	20	1	1	0
Carlos Allen	17	2	0	1
Latrell McCutchin	16	2	0	1
Kentrell Webb	13	2	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	13	5	2	1	1
Corey Platt Jr.	7	2	2	0	0
Brandon Mack	7	2	2	1	0
Khalil Laufau (Tr)	8	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Latreveon McCutchin	8	0	0	0	2
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)	5	0	0	0	2
Khalil Laufau (Tr)	8	1	1	1	1