Stephen F. Austin at Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
Stephen F. Austin logo Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Houston Cougars(#21)Houston logo
Thursday, August 28th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Houston -24.5 (54.5) (-2200)  Open: -22.5 | 55.5
Houston 27 - Stephen F. Austin: 0

 
Lumberjacks (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 0 - 27 (0 - 27 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Houston -7.5  (SP+ HOU -8)
HOU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 6) (Bad: 1)
 
Stephen F. Austin's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Stephen F. Austin at Houston+24.554.5L 0 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Stephen F. Austin's Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.547.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7.046.5W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-13.548.5L 35 - 45ON
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+1.555.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+2.557.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 12/27 Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SFA0%00%000%000%270%0%0000
HOU#106 (.1)41% (87)29.140% (100)2.62 (122)16343% (52)1993.39 (101)#37 (.09)41% (60)22.846% (106)38% (34)3.77 (76)37.81.11.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SFA Offense1000%00000000%0%0%0%0%
HOU Defense1322.824.241.2%3.771.3 - - - - - 49%48%46%38%16%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SFA Defense127270%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
HOU Offense1329.125.741.3%3.391.1203611631994.257%41%40%43%14%.1

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stephen F. Austin10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Houston1329:2019.640%59%4.337.81.11.34.21.8230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SFA Offense10%0%000000%0%0
HOU Defense1349% (59)46% (106) - - - - .05 (42)2.72 (34)79% (116)9% (97)0.77 (2)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SFA Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
HOU Offense1357% (17)40% (100)38.5162.74.216 (78)-.04 (133)2.62 (122)74% (58)9% (43)0.8 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SFA Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
HOU Defense1348% (66)38% (34) - - - - - - 12 (38).19 (46)1.4 (23)32% (63)24% (9).21 (34)7% (20)2.1 (108)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SFA Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
HOU Offense1341% (119)43% (52)16.526.2198.77.612.122 (50)10 (20).33 (44)1.8 (12)30% (50)25% (117).18 (115)5% (39)2 (65)

Stephen F. Austin's Power Ratings
Stephen F. Austin's Power Rating: NR
Stephen F. Austin's Offense Rating: NR
Stephen F. Austin's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Stephen F. Austin's 2025 Expected Record: -
Stephen F. Austin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Stephen F. Austin's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Stephen F. Austin's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Western Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Stephen F. Austin:    Houston: 7.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stephen F. Austin:    Houston: 7.6




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 7.485  #60
Houston's Offense Rating: 6.33  #84
Houston's Defense Rating: 3.96  #41
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6  #42
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #53
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Stephen F. Austin Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Stephen F. Austin's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Houston 29
Stephen F. Austin 21

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Houston 28
Stephen F. Austin 22

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Houston 27
Stephen F. Austin 12

Total Points: 39
Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/28Houston27Stephen F. Austin0Houston -24.5Houston54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston110 Overs
Stephen F. Austin001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#NR) SFA at (#60) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSFAHOU
Power RatePwrNR #60
SP+SP+NR #42
Perf GradeGradeNR #49
OffenseOffNR #77
DefenseDefNR #27
Spec TeamsSTNR #39
TalentTalNR #58
Blue ChipsBC%NR #46
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
Stephen F. Austin on Offense
CategoryCat
SFA OffHOU Def
Perf GradePerfNR #27
SuccessSucNR #60
ExplosiveExpNR #4
PPAPPANR #37
PowerPwrNR #41
SP+SP+NR #41
Pts POPPONR #76
HavocHavNR #60
Stephen F. Austin Run Game
CategoryCat
SFA OffHOU Def
Run GameRunNR #28
Run SuccessRSucNR #106
Run ExplRExpNR #2
PPAExpNR #42
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #34
Stuff RateStuffNR #67
TackleTak -  #26
Stephen F. Austin Pass Game
CategoryCat
SFA OffHOU Def
Pass GamePassNR #20
Pass SuccessPSucNR #34
Pass ExplPExlNR #23
PPAExpNR #46
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #125
F7 HavocF7NR #97
DB HavocDBNR #20
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffSFA Def
Perf GradePerf #77NR
SuccessSuc #87NR
ExplosiveExp #78NR
PPAPPA #106NR
PowerPwr #84NR
SP+SP+ #53NR
Pts POPPO #101NR
HavocHav #43NR
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffSFA Def
Run GameRun #50NR
Run SuccessRSuc #100NR
Run ExplRExp #128NR
PPAExp #133NR
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #122NR
Stuff RateStuff #92NR
TackleTak - NR
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffSFA Def
Pass GamePass #116NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #52NR
Pass ExplPExl #12NR
PPAExp #44NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #131NR
F7 HavocF7 #43NR
DB HavocDB #39NR
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

SFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 85° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Houston -24.5 (54.5)
Houston won vs Stephen F. Austin this year (27-0)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SFA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Vidlak23234967%26862277.7
Gavin Rutherford518262%542626.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerrell Wimbley195101795.248
Richard Reese (Tr)7344836.160
Jaylen Jenkins9542264.432
Braden Lewis3120906.727
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kylon Harris8610681012.476
Clayton Wayland39523513.458
Blaine Green37426211.542
Derrick Bohler22277512.637

View Stephen F. Austin's Full Roster

SFA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaydon Southard183000
Kameron Reddic100000
Aaron Austin102000
Jalen Mayo91000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaiydyn Johnson31101
Lowote Jurkin41111
Ky Thomas63101
Nicholas Perez10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lowote Jurkin41111
Aaron Sears71001
Victor Idusuyi70001

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23135565%27112597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)669721214.764
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005