Houston at UCF - 2025 Matchup Preview
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Houston Cougars at UCF Knights

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Friday, November 7th 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
UCF -1.5 (47.5) (-115)  Open: -2.5 | 48.5
Houston 30 - UCF: 27  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (31 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
HOU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Houston -6  (SP+ HOU -8.5)

Projected Score: HOU: 27 - UCF: 21 (49)
UCF Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
HOU Travel: 857 miles, 1 hrs behind
Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.5W27–054.5W27–0UY
Sat 9/6Houston at Rice-13.5W35–938.5W35–9OY
Fri 9/12Houston vs Colorado-4.0W36–2045.5W36–20OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/26Houston at Oregon State-11.5W27–2448.5W27–24ON
Sat 10/4Houston vs Texas Tech+13.5L11–3551.5L11–35UN
Sat 10/11Houston at Oklahoma State-14.5W39–1747.5W39–17OY
Sat 10/18Houston vs Arizona+1.5W31–2847.5W31–28OY
Sat 10/25Houston at Arizona State+7.0W24–1646.5W24–16UY
Sat 11/1Houston vs West Virginia-13.5L35–4548.5L35–45ON
Fri 11/7Houston at UCF+1.5W30–2747.5W30–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Houston vs TCU+1.5L14–1755.5L14–17UN
Sat 11/29Houston at Baylor+2.5W31–2457.5W31–24UY
Sat 12/27Houston vs LSU-1.5W38–3543.5W38–35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.5W17–1053.5W17–10UN
Sat 9/6UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.0W68–751.0W68–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UCF vs North Carolina-7.0W34–946.5W34–9UY
Sat 9/27UCF at Kansas State+5.5L20–3448.5L20–34ON
Sat 10/4UCF vs Kansas+4.0L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/11UCF at Cincinnati+10.0L11–2055.5L11–20UY
Sat 10/18UCF vs West Virginia-6.5W45–1346.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1UCF at Baylor+3.0L3–3058.5L3–30UN
Fri 11/7UCF vs Houston-1.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
Sat 11/15UCF at Texas Tech+24.5L9–4848.5L9–48ON
Sat 11/22UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.5W17–1447.5W17–14UN
Sat 11/29UCF at BYU+17.5L21–4146.5L21–41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)29.135% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)22.840% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)24.352% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)23.637% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense1229.13135.3%2.572.3152891371533.957%42%35%37%21%-
UCF Defense1223.615.739.9%4.370.9 - - - - - 50%50%37%42%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense1222.819.539.6%3.521.6 - - - - - 51%49%40%39%18%.14
UCF Offense1224.332.646.1%3.751.6244482482005.858%41%52%38%15%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston1230:1015.128%38%5.551.92.31.65.61.8227.7
UCF1228:1923.642%54%6.554.41.60.96.91.8130.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense1257% (22)35% (130)35.5136.63.99 (125) (122)2.52 (129)64% (119)16% (132)1.01 (49)
UCF Defense1250% (54)37% (12) - - - - .07 (39)2.57 (13)79% (106)12% (28)1.03 (90)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense1251% (76)40% (41) - - - - .06 (34)2.8 (35)69% (41)12% (27)1 (75)
UCF Offense1258% (16)52% (8)43248.15.833 (12).31 (7)3.62 (2)72% (80)10% (66)1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense1242% (114)37% (115)15.223.3152.76.510.19 (128)17 (127).02 (131)1.4 (122)35% (120)20% (133)-.04 (134)5% (45)1.7 (130)
UCF Defense1250% (82)42% (84) - - - - - - 9 (76).26 (81)1.6 (64)36% (16)30% (67).38 (99)5% (118)2.2 (117)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense1249% (62)39% (49) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (68)1.7 (95)33% (54)32% (96).32 (79)6% (71)2 (55)
UCF Offense1241% (121)38% (103)15.125.8199.77.713.214 (108)11 (72).1 (123)1.6 (76)29% (33)33% (53).16 (122)5% (48)1.8 (126)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 3.88  #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84  #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96  #52
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 3.88   UCF: -0.475

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.4   UCF: -1.2




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -0.475  #79
UCF's Offense Rating: 8.79  #94
UCF's Defense Rating: 13.54  #66
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Houston 27
UCF 21


Projected Total Points: 49
UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/07UCF27Houston30UCF -1.5Houston47.5Over
202311/25UCF27Houston13UCF -15.5Houston61.5Under
202010/31Houston21UCF44UCF -3UCF81.0Under
201911/02UCF44Houston29UCF -22Houston72.0Over
201610/29Houston31UCF24Houston -12.5UCF59.0Under
201510/24UCF10Houston59Houston -18.5Houston53.0Over
201410/02Houston12UCF17Houston -2.5UCF0
201311/09UCF19Houston14UCF -10Houston0
201011/05Houston33UCF40
200911/14UCF37Houston32
200610/28Houston51UCF31
200511/05UCF31Houston29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF833 Overs
Houston453 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 50 - 80 - 60 - 2
Road Teams5 - 78 - 02 - 06 - 0

(#53) HOU at (#79) UCF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHOUUCF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #53 #79
SP+SP+ #40 #76
Perf GradeGrade #46 #81
OffenseOff #73 #123
DefenseDef #21 #21
Spec TeamsST #83 #32
TalentTal #58 #72
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #32
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
UCF Notes
(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffUCF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #73 #21
SuccessSuc #129 #45
ExplosiveExp #109 #95
PPAPPA #133 #63
PowerPwr #57 #66
SP+SP+ #44 #51
Pts POPPO #134 #118
HavocHav #130 #64
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #50 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #12
Run ExplRExp #49 #90
PPAExp #122 #39
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #129 #13
Stuff RateStuff #116 #17
TackleTak -  #31
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #104 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #84
Pass ExplPExl #122 #64
PPAExp #131 #81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #125 #33
F7 HavocF7 #132 #28
DB HavocDB #45 #118
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUCF OffHOU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #123 #21
SuccessSuc #28 #41
ExplosiveExp #73 #94
PPAPPA #58 #51
PowerPwr #94 #52
SP+SP+ #98 #46
Pts POPPO #86 #41
HavocHav #51 #46
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #68 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #41
Run ExplRExp #11 #75
PPAExp #7 #34
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #35
Stuff RateStuff #16 #38
TackleTak -  #18
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUCF OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #130 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #49
Pass ExplPExl #76 #95
PPAExp #123 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #44 #116
F7 HavocF7 #66 #27
DB HavocDB #48 #71
Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 72° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 11
UCF -1.5 (47.5)
Houston won at UCF this year (30-27)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat UCF last year (30-27)
UCF beat Houston in 2023 (27-13)

  
HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23235665%27052597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)679661214.464
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery14370544.945
Jaden Nixon (Tr)7155477.887
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)53528010.041
Dylan Wade (Tr)43523512.283
Waden Charles26290011.230
DJ Black22273212.482

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Demari Henderson613101
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)603002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence2811732
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Nyjalik Kelly458283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)270008
DJ Bell (Tr)170004
Antoine Jackson391004