Western Kentucky at LSU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Western Kentucky logo Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at LSU TigersLSU logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (7:45 PM EST)
LSU -24.5 (52.0) (-1800)  Open: -21.5 | 50.5
LSU 13 - Western Kentucky: 10

 
Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
LSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: LSU -13  (SP+ LSU -9)

Projected Score: WKU: 19 - LSU: 32 (52)
LSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
WKU Travel: 529 miles
Tigers (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Frank Wilson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 5.3 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.560.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 8/30 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.560.5W 55 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.557.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.554.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.559.5W 27 - 22UY
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.562.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.555.5L 6 - 25UN
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.549.5W 28 - 27OY
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.553.5W 35 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-13.551.5W 42 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+24.552.0L 10 - 13UY
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-1.556.5L 34 - 37ON
Tue 12/23 Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.059.0W 27 - 16UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
LSU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 LSU at Clemson+3.557.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-36.549.5W 23 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 LSU vs Florida-5.547.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 9/20 LSU vs SE Louisiana-49.060.0W 56 - 10ON
Sat 9/27 LSU at Ole Miss+2.557.5L 19 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 LSU vs South Carolina-8.544.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 LSU at Vanderbilt+1.548.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/25 LSU vs Texas A&M+1.550.5L 25 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 LSU at Alabama+10.549.5L 9 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 LSU vs Arkansas-4.058.5W 23 - 22UN
Sat 11/22 LSU vs Western Kentucky-24.552.0W 13 - 10UN
Sat 11/29 LSU at Oklahoma+11.536.5L 13 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 LSU vs Houston+1.543.5L 35 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#74 (.17)43% (58)29.545% (52)2.97 (62)12342% (64)2524.21 (30)#42 (.11)37% (19)22.839% (26)36% (18)2.72 (11)55.61.41
LSU#125 (.04)38% (111)22.837% (122)2.46 (132)9940% (90)2093.2 (115)#20 (.06)38% (23)19.839% (29)37% (31)2.98 (17)5211.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Offense1329.524.543.2%4.211.4203741232524.242%57%45%42%15%.17
LSU Defense1319.816.937.7%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%52%39%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Defense1322.82837%2.721 - - - - - 46%52%39%36%16%.11
LSU Offense1322.825.738.4%3.2117308992093.743%56%37%40%18%.04

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Kentucky1327:102045%33%5.655.61.414.91.2228.2
LSU1328:3617.535%58%6.35211.64.82.1129.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Offense1342% (125)45% (52)29.2122.74.220 (78).09 (81)2.97 (62)81% (12)9% (49)0.92 (84)
LSU Defense1347% (33)39% (29) - - - - .01 (21)2.6 (18)64% (23)9% (83)0.92 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Defense1346% (22)39% (26) - - - - .09 (61)2.79 (52)55% (3)9% (94)1.13 (130)
LSU Offense1343% (118)37% (122)26.898.83.79 (107)- (124)2.46 (132)66% (105)11% (111)0.9 (93)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Offense1357% (12)42% (64)23.335251.67.210.821 (42)11 (60).24 (72)1.5 (89)33% (100)34% (24).36 (45)6% (89)1.9 (104)
LSU Defense1352% (115)37% (31) - - - - - - 17 (22).14 (26)1.6 (78)35% (23)27% (35).2 (29)9% (6)2 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Defense1352% (109)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).16 (33)1.5 (62)34% (32)27% (31).23 (43)7% (17)2 (69)
LSU Offense1356% (20)40% (90)21.232.12096.59.917 (50)7 (60).16 (112)1.4 (128)36% (129)30% (79).21 (99)7% (103)1.9 (93)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.54  #57
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.30  #77
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 3.76  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #60
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #80

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 3.54   LSU: 15.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 0.4   LSU: 9.6




LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.165  #31
LSU's Offense Rating: 6.88  #80
LSU's Defense Rating: -8.85  #7
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71  #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 5.3
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #33
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #90
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.0  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
LSU 32
Western Kentucky 19


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Kentucky 30
LSU 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
LSU 25
Western Kentucky 23

Total Points: 48
LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22LSU13Western Kentucky10LSU -24.5Western Kentucky52.0Under
201510/24LSU48Western Kentucky20LSU -17LSU65.0Over
201111/12LSU42Western Kentucky9
TeamWinsCoversO/U
LSU311 Overs
Western Kentucky011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#57) WKU at (#31) LSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWKULSU
Power RatePwr #57 #31
SP+SP+ #70 #33
Perf GradeGrade #55 #83
OffenseOff #64 #102
DefenseDef #54 #39
Spec TeamsST #28 #65
TalentTal #89 #8
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #4
Western Kentucky Notes
(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report
LSU Notes
(12/6) DC Blake Baker will stay on under Kiffin
(12/1) Hired Lane Kiffin, Weis will be OC, more to come
(11/26) Nussmeier doubtful vs OU, Van Buren gets 3rd start
(10/27) OC Joe Sloan fired, Alex Atkins (TE/RGC) int.
(10/26) Brian Kelly fired, AHS Frank Wilson interim
(10/25) OTs exposed vs A&M. 2 straight L's, Off sucks
(10/24) Have real issues at LT. May play BU C Chester, woof
(10/22) LB Whit Weeks out for A&M game (ankle)
(10/20) LT Tyree Adams out multiple games (A&M/Bama)
(10/18) Def was bad vs Vandy, Run Off bad, Nuss had no time
(10/18) Kelly now 11-11 on the road after Vandy loss.
(10/12) Cannot score +20 pts vs FBS teams, Def really good
LSU Injury Report
Western Kentucky on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffLSU Def
Perf GradePerf #64 #39
SuccessSuc #58 #23
ExplosiveExp #70 #66
PPAPPA #74 #20
PowerPwr #77 #7
SP+SP+ #60 #9
Pts POPPO #30 #17
HavocHav #61 #26
Western Kentucky Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #74 #64
Run SuccessRSuc #52 #29
Run ExplRExp #84 #48
PPAExp #81 #21
Run BlockR Blk #91 -
OL YdsOLY #62 #18
Stuff RateStuff #99 #10
TackleTak -  #86
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #47 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #64 #31
Pass ExplPExl #89 #78
PPAExp #72 #26
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #34 #96
F7 HavocF7 #49 #83
DB HavocDB #89 #6
LSU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLSU OffWKU Def
Perf GradePerf #102 #54
SuccessSuc #111 #19
ExplosiveExp #114 #116
PPAPPA #125 #42
PowerPwr #80 #39
SP+SP+ #90 #80
Pts POPPO #115 #11
HavocHav #111 #58
LSU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffWKU Def
Run GameRun #121 #72
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #26
Run ExplRExp #93 #130
PPAExp #124 #61
Run BlockR Blk #134 -
OL YdsOLY #132 #52
Stuff RateStuff #131 #31
TackleTak -  #118
LSU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLSU OffWKU Def
Pass GamePass #39 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #18
Pass ExplPExl #128 #62
PPAExp #112 #33
Pass Block/RushP Blk #60 #70
F7 HavocF7 #111 #94
DB HavocDB #103 #17
Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 72°
Rematch from Week 13
LSU -24.5 (52.0)
LSU won vs Western Kentucky this year (13-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
WKU's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)18327367%20621267.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.13921266%1432976.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
La'Vell Wright (Tr)85471105.539
George Hart III7030054.336
Rodney Tisdale Jr.5210822.115
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)55888616.155
K.D. Hutchinson6661839.478
Moussa Barry34488114.448
Noah Meyers32357311.262

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC DaVon Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)1067232
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005
Anthony Brackenridge745123
Dave Herard583004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)204300
Koron Hayward194321
Jalen Emery (Tr)183213
Harper Holloman396264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nazir Ward353106
Jai Eugene Jr.212105
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005

LSU's OC Alex Atkins (Int) (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier19428867%19271256.7
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham11150534.551
Harlem Berry10449124.743
Ju'Juan Johnson4115523.856
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)4812912.735
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Barion Brown (Tr)53532110.041
Zavion Thomas41488411.962
Trey'Dez Green33433713.142
Aaron Anderson33398012.139

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davhon Keys894162
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)881004
West Weeks768311
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)702012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins558462
West Weeks768311
DJ Pickett353203
Damien Shanklin22200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)4500111
P.J. Woodland382128
Patrick Payton (Tr)335126