New Mexico at Minnesota - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo New Mexico Lobos vs Minnesota Golden GophersMinnesota logo
Friday, December 26th 2025 (4:30 PM EST)
Minnesota -1.5 (44.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Minnesota 20 - New Mexico: 17  (Rate Bowl)

 
Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Game in Dome
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Minnesota -1  (SP+ UNM -1)

Projected Score: UNM: 22 - MINN: 23 (46)
MINN Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UNM Travel: 983 miles, 1 hrs behind
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.553.5W 38 - 20OY
Fri 10/3 New Mexico at San José State+1.558.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+14.558.5L 25 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-14.049.5W 24 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-3.061.5W 33 - 14UY
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+3.561.5W 40 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.553.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force-3.553.5W 20 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.541.5W 23 - 17UY
Fri 12/26 New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.544.5L 17 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Minnesota vs Buffalo-16.545.5W 23 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 Minnesota vs Northwestern State-43.050.5W 66 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Minnesota at California-3.041.5L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Minnesota vs Rutgers-3.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 10/4 Minnesota at Ohio State+23.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Minnesota vs Purdue-7.549.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 10/17 Minnesota vs Nebraska+7.047.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/25 Minnesota at Iowa+7.539.5L 3 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Minnesota vs Michigan State-4.544.5W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/14 Minnesota at Oregon+26.545.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Minnesota vs Northwestern+4.041.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Minnesota vs Wisconsin+2.538.5W 17 - 7UY
Fri 12/26 Minnesota vs New Mexico-1.544.5W 20 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#65 (.18)42% (76)27.143% (78)3.15 (33)14342% (71)1983.96 (44)#48 (.11)40% (51)22.340% (49)40% (59)3.12 (25)44.61.71.2
MINN#95 (.13)40% (100)2339% (111)2.62 (124)9541% (77)1793.79 (60)#96 (.2)45% (115)22.943% (79)47% (124)3.84 (87)24.30.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1327.127.541.8%3.961.7183411431984.453%45%43%42%14%.18
MINN Defense1322.91345.2%3.841.2 - - - - - 46%53%43%47%18%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense1322.326.340%3.121.2 - - - - - 47%52%40%40%17%.11
MINN Offense132330.139.9%3.790.616274951793.641%57%39%41%16%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1327:4318.139%67%5.344.61.71.25.62.5228.4
Minnesota1327:0715.839%42%3.124.30.61.26.52.7230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1353% (42)43% (78)32.8143.54.422 (49).14 (54)3.15 (33)75% (47)9% (69)0.99 (59)
MINN Defense1346% (19)43% (79) - - - - .14 (91)2.86 (63)73% (80)13% (6)0.98 (84)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1347% (36)40% (49) - - - - .04 (36)2.63 (21)83% (128)11% (33)0.97 (73)
MINN Offense1341% (126)39% (111)26.495.43.614 (88).02 (115)2.62 (124)73% (63)9% (46)0.89 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1345% (97)42% (71)16.324.8198812.117 (61)9 (119).27 (62)1.6 (53)30% (51)30% (72).33 (61)5% (22)1.9 (110)
MINN Defense1353% (118)47% (124) - - - - - - 8 (38).25 (74)1.5 (35)30% (100)36% (129).42 (123)5% (122)2 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1352% (106)40% (59) - - - - - - 9 (100).24 (63)1.5 (41)34% (33)28% (45).27 (60)6% (54)1.9 (39)
MINN Offense1357% (11)41% (77)17.928.5178.66.31017 (61)7 (34).22 (83)1.4 (120)33% (96)28% (92).2 (108)7% (114)1.8 (125)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -5.08  #88
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 4.25  #98
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 9.33  #76
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2  #66
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #69
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -5.08   Minnesota: -0.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: 1.2   Minnesota: 0.4




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -0.905  #77
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 8.86  #68
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 11.07  #83
2025 Talent Rating: 928.00  #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8  #44
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9  #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Minnesota 23
New Mexico 22


Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico 24
Minnesota 20

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Minnesota 26
New Mexico 23

Total Points: 49
Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/26Minnesota20New Mexico17Minnesota -1.5Minnesota44.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota110 Overs
New Mexico001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

New Mexico Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Rate Bowl New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.544.5L 17 - 20
Minnesota Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Rate Bowl Minnesota vs New Mexico-1.544.5W 20 - 17
2024Mayo Bowl Minnesota vs Virginia Tech-10.043.5W 24 - 10
2023Lane Bowl Minnesota vs Bowling Green-2.545.0W 30 - 24
2022Pinstripe Bowl Minnesota vs Syracuse-10.545.0W 28 - 20
2021Rate Bowl Minnesota vs West Virginia-5.044.5W 18 - 6
2019Outback Bowl Minnesota vs Auburn+7.054.0W 31 - 24
  
(#88) UNM at (#77) MINN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNMMINN
Power RatePwr #88 #77
SP+SP+ #66 #70
Perf GradeGrade #49 #60
OffenseOff #77 #48
DefenseDef #29 #110
Spec TeamsST #58 #1
TalentTal #127 #19
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #44
New Mexico Notes
(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report
Minnesota Notes
(11/30) CB J Nestor was incredible vs Iowa, Does he return?
(11/22) This program is awful on road. Study why
(11/16) Gophers historically bad road season, L2 at home
(11/2) Outgained & outplayed by Mich St, Def torched
(10/27) Off horrific vs Iowa, 133 yds, 24 rushing, 3 TOs.
(10/18) Def dominated Neb w/ 9 sacks, held to 213 yds
(10/18) RB D Taylor breakout game, 148 yds, 6.2 ypc
(9/14) Rush Off disappointing, Red Zone issues hurt
(9/13) RB1 D Taylor doubtful for Cal (leg inj)
(8/29) QB Lindsey, RB Taylor as good as advertised
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
Minnesota Injury Report
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffMINN Def
Perf GradePerf #77 #110
SuccessSuc #76 #115
ExplosiveExp #56 #74
PPAPPA #65 #96
PowerPwr #98 #83
SP+SP+ #69 #44
Pts POPPO #44 #87
HavocHav #44 #31
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #107 #104
Run SuccessRSuc #78 #79
Run ExplRExp #59 #84
PPAExp #54 #91
Run BlockR Blk #75 -
OL YdsOLY #33 #63
Stuff RateStuff #12 #54
TackleTak -  #86
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #24 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #71 #124
Pass ExplPExl #53 #35
PPAExp #62 #74
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #114 #98
F7 HavocF7 #69 #6
DB HavocDB #22 #122
Minnesota on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatMINN OffUNM Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #29
SuccessSuc #100 #51
ExplosiveExp #99 #58
PPAPPA #95 #48
PowerPwr #68 #76
SP+SP+ #92 #66
Pts POPPO #60 #25
HavocHav #73 #40
Minnesota Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #53 #25
Run SuccessRSuc #111 #49
Run ExplRExp #102 #73
PPAExp #115 #36
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #21
Stuff RateStuff #95 #17
TackleTak -  #41
Minnesota Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatMINN OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #44 #60
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #59
Pass ExplPExl #120 #41
PPAExp #83 #63
Pass Block/RushP Blk #50 #11
F7 HavocF7 #46 #33
DB HavocDB #114 #54
Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Chase Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 72°
Rematch from Week 1
Minnesota -1.5 (44.5)
Minnesota won vs New Mexico this year (20-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)19930266%23981397.9
James Laubstein101471%96206.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)10457855.654
DJ McKinney (Tr)10945474.254
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)7734954.561
James Laubstein4430617.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)55712312.980
Dorian Thomas (Tr)53545410.334
Damon Bankston (Tr)26374314.484
Cade Keith (Tr)20253312.745

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)1267232
Tavian Combs681103
Jon Johnson500005
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855
Brett Karhu2611751
Darren Agu (Tr)294221
Gabriel Lopez146211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech90007
Jon Johnson500005
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Lindsey22836163%22351666.2
Max Shikenjanski4580%801016.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor11955434.771
Fame Ijeboi9744124.549
Grant Washington2113206.316
Cameron Davis (Tr)3410923.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lemeke Brockington46484410.524
Javon Tracy (Tr)35439612.545
Jalen Smith22355216.178
Darius Taylor3022207.440

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Danny Collins (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Baranowski858231
Devon Williams828311
Koi Perich773102
Kerry Brown554003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith32141171
Karter Menz278640
Jaxon Howard266410
Devon Williams828311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Nestor (Tr)476006
Kerry Brown554003
Za'Quan Bryan371013