Nevada at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at New Mexico LobosNew Mexico logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM  (Mountain West)

 
Wolf Pack (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 15 - 26 (11 - 46 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.2 - 8.8 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
UNM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -4.5   (SP+ UNM -1)

Projected Score: NEV: 23 - UNM: 27 (50)
UNM Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 787 miles, 1 hrs behind
Lobos (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+10.554.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+13.5
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+9
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+4.5
Sat 10/25 Nevada vs Boise State+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+7
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+5.5
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+14
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-2
Sat 10/4 New Mexico at San José State+8
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+22
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-4.5
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-0.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+16
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State+5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force+4.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico vs San Diego State+7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#131 (-.01)42% (79)14.744% (75)2.41 (116)18440% (92)1452.3 (127)#116 (.26)49% (124)25.751% (123)47% (108)4.38 (101)43.72.30.7
UNM#118 (.07)38% (108)2836% (114)2.89 (79)18941% (90)1753.73 (83)#71 (.14)43% (98)2248% (111)41% (72)2.77 (43)15.721
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense314.71142.3%2.32.3173291841454.968%31%44%40%18%-.01
UNM Defense3222243.4%2.771 - - - - - 47%51%48%41%9%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense325.74649%4.380.7 - - - - - 56%44%51%47%13%.26
UNM Offense3283237.8%3.732213631891755.147%51%36%41%14%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada329:1817.331%57%4.743.72.30.76.32.7127.7
New Mexico333:032141%50%2.315.7212.70.7031.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense368% (6)44% (75)37.7183.74.91 (127).13 (72)2.41 (116)86% (22)13% (126)1.02 (53)
UNM Defense347% (51)48% (111) - - - - .1 (84)2.9 (82)94% (126)6% (121)0.73 (20)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense356% (110)51% (123) - - - - .28 (124)3.27 (118)78% (100)11% (52)0.87 (54)
UNM Offense347% (87)36% (114)37.3188.75.17 (38).14 (69)2.89 (79)70% (79)9% (73)0.99 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense331% (131)40% (92)12.322.31456.511.82 (102)5 (129)-.21 (135)1 (134)32% (86)29% (89)-.19 (136)4% (45)1.4 (127)
UNM Defense351% (77)41% (72) - - - - - - 2 (56).35 (108)1.5 (56)32% (80)27% (57).53 (116)3% (131)2.6 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense344% (30)47% (108) - - - - - - 2 (56).24 (77)1.4 (43)30% (93)26% (44).32 (84)2% (134)1.8 (49)
UNM Offense351% (56)41% (90)1928.7174.76.19.24 (72)3 (92).11 (114)1.2 (124)31% (70)25% (107).19 (104)5% (68)1.8 (102)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -19.51 #128
Nevada's Offense Rating: 2.19 #120
Nevada's Defense Rating: 21.69 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.2 - 8.8
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #120
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #116
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -19.51   New Mexico: -12.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -14.3   New Mexico: -13.0




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -12.17 #121
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 3.17 #112
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.51 #117
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 11
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 46

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico 27
Nevada 23


Total Points: 50

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Nevada34New Mexico24NevadaNew Mexico -1.0Nevada50.0Over
202011/14New Mexico20Nevada27NevadaNevada -17.5New Mexico62.5Under
201911/02Nevada21New Mexico10NevadaNevada -3.5Nevada58.0Under
201611/05New Mexico35Nevada26New MexicoNew Mexico -11Nevada58.5Over
201510/10Nevada35New Mexico17NevadaNevada -6Nevada53.5Under
201211/17New Mexico24Nevada31Nevada
201110/15Nevada49New Mexico7Nevada
200712/22New Mexico23Nevada0New Mexico
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico212 Overs
Nevada643 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 24 - 12 - 12 - 0
Road Teams2 - 61 - 40 - 21 - 2

(#128) Nevada Info
Power Rating: -19.51 #128
Offense Rating: 2.19 #120
Defense Rating: 21.69 #126
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #120
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108
Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 3.2 - 8.8

Team Profile
Option Offense 68%, Pass: 31%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Nevada has lost 4 straight
Nevada has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Nevada Notes
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
(4/9) Choate got year 0. New OC, pass game better TY
(3/29) QB Purdy vs Blanco, not much playing exp

Nevada Highlights

Nevada Deficiencies
Nevada has a really bad Offense
Nevada has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Nevada throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Nevada offense is not Explosive (#126)
Nevada Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#121)
Nevada offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#127)
Nevada offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Nevada has a bad defense (#124)
Nevada Does Not Stuff Runs (#128)
Nevada has a bad defensive line (#118)
Nevada has a bad red zone defense (#101)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUNMNEV
OverallOver#50#69
OffenseOff#75#87
DefenseDef#34#51
Special TeamsST#24#99
PassingPass#41#97
RushingRush#50#79
Run BlockRBLK#60#34
Pass BlockPBLK#94#85
Route RunningWR Rt#93#99
TacklingTkl#51#75
Run DefenseR Def#33#64
Pass Rush DefPRush#23#12
Coverage DefCov#60#73

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat New Mexico in 2023 (34-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NEV | UNM
Depth Chart: NEV | UNM
Rosters: NEV | UNM
(#121) New Mexico Info
Power Rating: -12.17 #121
Offense Rating: 3.17 #112
Defense Rating: 19.51 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #128
Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Good in Scoring Position 2.77 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

New Mexico has lost 3 straight
New Mexico has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

New Mexico Notes
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle

New Mexico Highlights
New Mexico is Undefeated at Home

New Mexico does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#24)

New Mexico defense does not give up big plays (#30)
New Mexico commits very few Penalties (#1)

New Mexico Deficiencies
New Mexico has a bad TO Margin (#116)
New Mexico Fumbles a Lot (#113)
New Mexico offense is really bad (#108)
New Mexico offense is not Explosive (#111)
New Mexico run game is really bad (#114)
New Mexico does not Sack the QB (#122)
New Mexico Does Not Stuff Runs (#100)


  
Nevada's OC David Gilbertson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy244356%329147.7
AJ Bianco132357%106114.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chubba Purdy4421614.930
Herschel Turner (Tr)3115304.964
Caleb Ramseur239304.026
Ky Woods450012.528
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcus Bellon11153113.943
Jordan Brown (Tr)11145013.228
Ky Woods147147.047
Jett Carpenter64106.812

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stone Combs213100
Dylan Labarbera216200
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)160000
Austin Harnetiaux140001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera216200
Jonathan Maldonado123200
Sam Cook (Tr)74100
Nelson Ropati51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)90003
Bishop Turner30001
Austin Harnetiaux140001

New Mexico's OC Luke Schleusner
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)568467%515336.1
DJ McKinney (Tr)11100%9109.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)3422236.561
Damon Bankston (Tr)2520028.054
DJ McKinney (Tr)3013914.617
James Laubstein5501.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dorian Thomas (Tr)1816829.325
Damon Bankston (Tr)8125115.655
Michael Buckley453013.325
Keagan Johnson (Tr)84605.814

View New Mexico's Full Roster
New Mexico's DC Spence Nowinsky
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)340011
Tavian Combs160000
Caleb Coleman (Tr)150000
David Scott-Murphy122000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brett Karhu72110
Xavier Slayton (Tr)101100
Gabriel Lopez21110
Landon Williams10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech40002
Jaxton Eck (Tr)340011
Jon Johnson70001