Nevada at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at New Mexico LobosNew Mexico logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (9:45 PM EDT)
New Mexico -14 (49.5) (-550)  Open: -10.5
New Mexico 24 - Nevada: 22  (Mountain West)

 
Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
UNM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -16.5  (SP+ UNM -15)

Projected Score: NEV: 16 - UNM: 33 (49)
UNM Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
NEV Travel: 787 miles, 1 hrs behind
Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+10.052.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10.049.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.039.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+7.553.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.553.5W 38 - 20OY
Fri 10/3 New Mexico at San José State+1.558.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+14.558.5L 25 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-14.049.5W 24 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-3.061.5W 33 - 14UY
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+3.561.5W 40 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.553.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force-3.553.5W 20 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.541.5W 23 - 17UY
Fri 12/26 New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.544.5L 17 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (88)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#93 (.19)44% (92)27.544% (84)43% (93)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
UNM#65 (.18)42% (76)27.143% (78)3.15 (33)14342% (71)1983.96 (44)#48 (.11)40% (51)22.340% (49)40% (59)3.12 (25)44.61.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1217.615.536.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02
UNM Defense1322.318.740%3.121.2 - - - - - 47%52%40%40%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1227.529.843.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
UNM Offense1327.128.341.8%3.961.7183411431984.453%45%43%42%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
New Mexico1327:4318.139%67%5.344.61.71.25.62.5228.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (89)2.83 (88)72% (68)11% (115)1.04 (38)
UNM Defense1347% (36)40% (49) - - - - .04 (36)2.63 (21)83% (128)11% (33)0.97 (73)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1250% (68)44% (84) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (94)1.05 (111)
UNM Offense1353% (42)43% (78)32.8143.54.422 (49).14 (54)3.15 (33)75% (47)9% (69)0.99 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (123)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (84)1.6 (136)
UNM Defense1352% (106)40% (59) - - - - - - 9 (100).24 (63)1.5 (41)34% (33)28% (45).27 (60)6% (54)1.9 (39)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1248% (70)43% (93) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (40)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (41).26 (57)6% (87)1.8 (17)
UNM Offense1345% (97)42% (71)16.324.8198812.117 (61)9 (119).27 (62)1.6 (53)30% (51)30% (72).33 (61)5% (22)1.9 (110)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -17.96  #132
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #131
Nevada's Defense Rating: 17.76  #124
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.1  #118
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #78

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -17.96   New Mexico: 0.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -14.1   New Mexico: 1.2




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: 0.56  #88
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 4.25  #98
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 9.33  #76
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2  #66
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #69
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico 33
Nevada 16


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico 31
Nevada 19

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico 28
Nevada 19

Total Points: 47
New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18New Mexico24Nevada22New Mexico -14Nevada49.5Under
202310/28Nevada34New Mexico24New Mexico -1.0Nevada50.0Over
202011/14New Mexico20Nevada27Nevada -17.5New Mexico62.5Under
201911/02Nevada21New Mexico10Nevada -3.5Nevada58.0Under
201611/05New Mexico35Nevada26New Mexico -11Nevada58.5Over
201510/10Nevada35New Mexico17Nevada -6Nevada53.5Under
201211/17New Mexico24Nevada31
201110/15Nevada49New Mexico7
200712/22New Mexico23Nevada0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico312 Overs
Nevada654 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 24 - 22 - 22 - 0
Road Teams2 - 72 - 40 - 22 - 2

(#132) NEV at (#88) UNM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNEVUNM
Power RatePwr #132 #88
SP+SP+ #118 #66
Perf GradeGrade #97 #49
OffenseOff #112 #77
DefenseDef #45 #29
Spec TeamsST #119 #58
TalentTal #119 #127
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
Nevada Notes
(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report
New Mexico Notes
(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffUNM Def
Perf GradePerf #112 #29
SuccessSuc #124 #51
ExplosiveExp #102 #58
PPAPPA #129 #48
PowerPwr #131 #76
SP+SP+ #133 #66
Pts POPPO #133 #25
HavocHav #107 #40
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #126 #25
Run SuccessRSuc #123 #49
Run ExplRExp #38 #73
PPAExp #89 #36
Run BlockR Blk #24 -
OL YdsOLY #88 #21
Stuff RateStuff #80 #17
TackleTak -  #41
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #131 #60
Pass SuccessPSuc #118 #59
Pass ExplPExl #123 #41
PPAExp #135 #63
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #77 #11
F7 HavocF7 #115 #33
DB HavocDB #84 #54
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffNEV Def
Perf GradePerf #77 #45
SuccessSuc #76 #92
ExplosiveExp #56 #38
PPAPPA #65 #93
PowerPwr #98 #124
SP+SP+ #69 #78
Pts POPPO #44 #112
HavocHav #44 #100
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #107 #54
Run SuccessRSuc #78 #84
Run ExplRExp #59 #111
PPAExp #54 #126
Run BlockR Blk #75 -
OL YdsOLY #33 #104
Stuff RateStuff #12 #111
TackleTak -  #68
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #24 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #71 #93
Pass ExplPExl #53 #2
PPAExp #62 #40
Pass Block/RushP Blk #114 #14
F7 HavocF7 #69 #94
DB HavocDB #22 #87
Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 63° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 8
New Mexico -14.0 (49.5)
New Mexico won vs Nevada this year (24-22)

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat New Mexico in 2023 (34-24)

  
NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
Chubba Purdy448651%577386.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur13968354.932
Chubba Purdy10053035.358
Herschel Turner (Tr)6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter35374210.744
Dakota Thomas (Tr)26268110.325
Marcus Bellon2524219.743
Caleb Ramseur18191310.641

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Stone Combs725111
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)595102
Nakian Jackson (Tr)510000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jonathan Maldonado389514
Nelson Ropati224200
Myles Williams (Tr)31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Odums491007
Edward Rhambo (Tr)341006
Bryson Snelling140004

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)19930266%23981397.9
James Laubstein101471%96206.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)10457855.654
DJ McKinney (Tr)10945474.254
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)7734954.561
James Laubstein4430617.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)55712312.980
Dorian Thomas (Tr)53545410.334
Damon Bankston (Tr)26374314.484
Cade Keith (Tr)20253312.745

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)1267232
Tavian Combs681103
Jon Johnson500005
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855
Brett Karhu2611751
Darren Agu (Tr)294221
Gabriel Lopez146211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech90007
Jon Johnson500005
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855