Nevada at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at New Mexico LobosNew Mexico logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM  (Mountain West)

 
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#120)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
UNM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -3   (SP+ NEV -2)
Projected Score: NEV: 30 - UNM: 33 (62)
UNM Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NEV Travel: 787 miles, 1 hrs behind
Lobos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (37 - 39 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.560.5
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-6
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-2.5
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+13
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+2.5
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+3
Sat 10/25 Nevada vs Boise State+24.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+4
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.5
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+34.552.5
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-7
Sat 9/13 New Mexico at UCLA+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-4.5
Sat 10/4 New Mexico at San José State+14
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+28.5
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-3
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-1.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+14
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State+4.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force+6
Sat 11/29 New Mexico vs San Diego State+2

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)23.147% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)28.849% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)33.553% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)3850% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1323.117.844.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21
UNM Defense123838.850.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1328.831.346.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
UNM Offense1233.537.448.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -18.39 #116
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.33 #109
Nevada's Defense Rating: 25.72 #123
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #124
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #119

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -18.39   New Mexico: -14.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -16.3   New Mexico: -18.4




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -14.2 #106
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 14.53 #63
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 29.53 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 326.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #70
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.4 #130
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #97
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #134

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico 33
Nevada 30

Projected Total Points: 62
New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.4
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense at Home: 38.8

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Nevada34New Mexico24NevadaNew Mexico -1.0Nevada50.0Over
202011/14New Mexico20Nevada27NevadaNevada -17.5New Mexico62.5Under
201911/02Nevada21New Mexico10NevadaNevada -3.5Nevada58.0Under
201611/05New Mexico35Nevada26New MexicoNew Mexico -11Nevada58.5Over
201510/10Nevada35New Mexico17NevadaNevada -6Nevada53.5Under
201211/17New Mexico24Nevada31Nevada
201110/15Nevada49New Mexico7Nevada
200712/22New Mexico23Nevada0New Mexico
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico212 Overs
Nevada643 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 24 - 12 - 12 - 0
Road Teams2 - 61 - 40 - 21 - 2

(#116) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.39 #116
Offense Rating: 7.33 #109
Defense Rating: 25.72 #123
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #124
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #119
Talent Rating: 476.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Nevada Notes
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
(4/9) Def ugly LY, return nothing. 10 portals. Yikes
(4/9) Choate got year 0. New OC, pass game better TY
(3/29) QB Purdy vs Blanco, not much playing exp
Nevada     Ratings Matchup     New Mexico
Power #116
#106
Off #109
#63
Def #123
#134
Talent #112
#129
SP+ #124
#130
SP+ Off #114
#97
SP+ Def #119
#134

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat New Mexico in 2023 (34-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NEV | UNM
Depth Chart: NEV | UNM
Rosters: NEV | UNM
(#106) New Mexico Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -14.2 #106
Offense Rating: 14.53 #63
Defense Rating: 29.53 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.4 #130
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #97
Defense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #134
Talent Rating: 326.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #70
Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 49%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Good Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.64 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


New Mexico Notes
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
(3/26) New HC Eck was 26-13 @ Idaho, good off
(3/26) New OC Schleusner w/ Eck @ Idaho
(3/18) QB Jack Layne (FCS Idaho) starter?


  
Nevada's OC David Gilbertson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy182572%239119.6
AJ Bianco162467%173107.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner (Tr)7940545.143
Caleb Ramseur3211003.433
Chubba Purdy136004.619
Marcus Bellon93704.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Jordan Brown (Tr)11140012.742
Nick Rempert (Tr)11127111.540
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stone Combs583100
Austin Harnetiaux442010
Thomas Witte342010
Dylan Labarbera312000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Stone Combs583100
Jason Douglas Jr.11100
DJ Warnell41101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)221002
Charles Brown20001
Kaden Johnson171011

New Mexico's OC Luke Schleusner
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)8313263%11591148.8
Cole Welliver (Tr)2450%10002.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)1881291156.979
Deshaun Buchanan (Tr)6050648.472
DJ McKinney (Tr)9547935.059
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters2212415.620
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)29359112.435
Michael Buckley8103012.918
Aiden Valdez (Tr)109039.037
DJ McKinney (Tr)117907.216

View New Mexico's Full Roster
New Mexico's DC Spence Nowinsky
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randolph Kpai805153
Dmitri Johnson775212
Ky'won McCray (Tr)665144
Austin Brawley (Tr)382002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)106500
Dmitri Johnson775212
Randolph Kpai805153
Xavier Slayton (Tr)52100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ky'won McCray (Tr)665144
Randolph Kpai805153
Austin Brawley (Tr)382002