Minnesota at California - 2025 Matchup Preview
Minnesota logo Minnesota Golden Gophers at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -3 (41.5) (-162)  Open: 0.0
California 27 - Minnesota: 14

 
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (8 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
CAL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: California -2.5  (SP+ MINN -4)

Projected Score: MINN: 20 - CAL: 23 (43)
MINN Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MINN Travel: 1572 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Nick Rolovich (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Minnesota vs Buffalo-16.545.5W 23 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 Minnesota vs Northwestern State-43.050.5W 66 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Minnesota at California-3.041.5L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Minnesota vs Rutgers-3.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 10/4 Minnesota at Ohio State+23.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Minnesota vs Purdue-7.549.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 10/17 Minnesota vs Nebraska+7.047.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/25 Minnesota at Iowa+7.539.5L 3 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Minnesota vs Michigan State-4.544.5W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/14 Minnesota at Oregon+26.545.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Minnesota vs Northwestern+4.041.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Minnesota vs Wisconsin+2.538.5W 17 - 7UY
Fri 12/26 Minnesota vs New Mexico-1.544.5W 20 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#95 (.13)40% (100)2339% (111)2.62 (124)9541% (77)1793.79 (60)#96 (.2)45% (115)22.943% (79)47% (124)3.84 (87)24.30.61.2
CAL#99 (.12)40% (96)25.338% (119)2.64 (119)7143% (58)2493.7 (66)#71 (.17)42% (79)27.247% (120)38% (37)3.69 (71)58.11.21.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Offense13238.339.9%3.790.616274951793.641%57%39%41%16%.13
CAL Defense1327.224.342.3%3.691.1 - - - - - 46%51%47%38%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Defense1322.93845.2%3.841.2 - - - - - 46%53%43%47%18%.2
CAL Offense1325.327.240.5%3.71.218321712492.639%60%38%43%16%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Minnesota1327:0715.839%42%3.124.30.61.26.52.7230.7
California1327:5717.840%55%7.258.11.21.14.51.5027.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Offense1341% (126)39% (111)26.495.43.614 (88).02 (115)2.62 (124)73% (63)9% (46)0.89 (102)
CAL Defense1346% (29)47% (120) - - - - .21 (122)3.32 (129)85% (131)8% (117)0.98 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Defense1346% (19)43% (79) - - - - .14 (91)2.86 (63)73% (80)13% (6)0.98 (84)
CAL Offense1339% (131)38% (119)27.571.52.618 (78)-.04 (132)2.64 (119)70% (81)9% (64)0.89 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Offense1357% (11)41% (77)17.928.5178.66.31017 (61)7 (34).22 (83)1.4 (120)33% (96)28% (92).2 (108)7% (114)1.8 (125)
CAL Defense1351% (101)38% (37) - - - - - - 8 (55).14 (28)1.4 (11)32% (64)26% (23).16 (16)7% (24)1.7 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Defense1353% (118)47% (124) - - - - - - 8 (38).25 (74)1.5 (35)30% (100)36% (129).42 (123)5% (122)2 (56)
CAL Offense1360% (6)43% (58)22.635.8249.471119 (61)10 (119).22 (81)1.4 (108)32% (76)33% (38).35 (52)7% (106)1.9 (112)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -2.21  #77
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 8.86  #68
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 11.07  #83
2025 Talent Rating: 928.00  #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8%  #44
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9  #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -2.21   California: 1.605

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 0.4   California: -3.4




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.605  #63
California's Offense Rating: 7.93  #74
California's Defense Rating: 6.32  #54
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #85
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #87
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #75

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 8.3
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
California 23
Minnesota 20


Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 21
California 19

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
California 28
Minnesota 21

Total Points: 49
California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13California27Minnesota14Minnesota -3California41.5Under
200909/19Minnesota21California35
200609/09California42Minnesota17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California310 Overs
Minnesota001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 20 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#77) MINN at (#63) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMINNCAL
Power RatePwr #77 #63
SP+SP+ #70 #85
Perf GradeGrade #60 #94
OffenseOff #48 #88
DefenseDef #110 #76
Spec TeamsST #1 #130
TalentTal #19 #55
Blue ChipsBC% #44 #88
Minnesota Notes
(11/30) CB J Nestor was incredible vs Iowa, Does he return?
(11/22) This program is awful on road. Study why
(11/16) Gophers historically bad road season, L2 at home
(11/2) Outgained & outplayed by Mich St, Def torched
(10/27) Off horrific vs Iowa, 133 yds, 24 rushing, 3 TOs.
(10/18) Def dominated Neb w/ 9 sacks, held to 213 yds
(10/18) RB D Taylor breakout game, 148 yds, 6.2 ypc
(9/14) Rush Off disappointing, Red Zone issues hurt
(9/13) RB1 D Taylor doubtful for Cal (leg inj)
(8/29) QB Lindsey, RB Taylor as good as advertised
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
Minnesota Injury Report
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
Minnesota on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffCAL Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #76
SuccessSuc #100 #79
ExplosiveExp #99 #28
PPAPPA #95 #71
PowerPwr #68 #54
SP+SP+ #92 #75
Pts POPPO #60 #71
HavocHav #73 #79
Minnesota Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #53 #132
Run SuccessRSuc #111 #120
Run ExplRExp #102 #83
PPAExp #115 #122
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #129
Stuff RateStuff #95 #134
TackleTak -  #114
Minnesota Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #44 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #37
Pass ExplPExl #120 #11
PPAExp #83 #28
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #50 #89
F7 HavocF7 #46 #117
DB HavocDB #114 #24
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffMINN Def
Perf GradePerf #88 #110
SuccessSuc #96 #115
ExplosiveExp #68 #74
PPAPPA #99 #96
PowerPwr #74 #83
SP+SP+ #87 #44
Pts POPPO #66 #87
HavocHav #88 #31
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #120 #104
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #79
Run ExplRExp #99 #84
PPAExp #132 #91
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #119 #63
Stuff RateStuff #59 #54
TackleTak -  #86
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #29 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #58 #124
Pass ExplPExl #108 #35
PPAExp #81 #74
Pass Block/RushP Blk #84 #98
F7 HavocF7 #64 #6
DB HavocDB #106 #122
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 75° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Minnesota 3.0 (41.5)
California won vs Minnesota this year (27-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Lindsey22836163%22351666.2
Max Shikenjanski4580%801016.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor11955434.771
Fame Ijeboi9744124.549
Grant Washington2113206.316
Cameron Davis (Tr)3410923.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lemeke Brockington46484410.524
Javon Tracy (Tr)35439612.545
Jalen Smith22355216.178
Darius Taylor3022207.440

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Danny Collins (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Baranowski858231
Devon Williams828311
Koi Perich773102
Kerry Brown554003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith32141171
Karter Menz278640
Jaxon Howard266410
Devon Williams828311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Nestor (Tr)476006
Kerry Brown554003
Za'Quan Bryan371013

CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34321897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)234953134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102169.541
Trond Grizzell55775114.135
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018