Colorado State at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview
Colorado State logo Colorado State Rams at New Mexico LobosNew Mexico logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
New Mexico -15.5 (53.5) (-700)  Open: -12.5
New Mexico 20 - Colorado State: 17  (Mountain West)

 
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Tyson Summers (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
UNM coming off BYE
Our Line: New Mexico -14  (SP+ UNM -17)

Projected Score: CSU: 18 - UNM: 32 (51)
UNM Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
CSU Travel: 389 miles
Lobos (9 - 3) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#24)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 4, Poor: 1

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.553.5W 38 - 20OY
Fri 10/3 New Mexico at San José State+1.558.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+14.558.5L 25 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-14.049.5W 24 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-3.061.5W 33 - 14UY
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+3.561.5W 40 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.553.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force-3.553.5W 20 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.541.5W 23 - 17UY
Fri 12/26 New Mexico vs Minnesota+3.047.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#94 (.13)40% (97)18.544% (66)2.97 (64)10838% (110)2163.52 (89)#113 (.24)45% (118)30.846% (108)46% (116)4.03 (101)56.31.71.3
UNM#66 (.18)42% (78)27.943% (79)3.15 (31)15542% (71)2153.96 (48)#47 (.11)40% (50)22.540% (48)40% (57)3.12 (22)48.31.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Offense1218.516.640.3%3.521.7183241082163.645%54%44%38%19%.13
UNM Defense1222.518.740%3.121.3 - - - - - 47%52%40%40%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Defense1230.83645.3%4.031.3 - - - - - 57%42%46%46%13%.24
UNM Offense1227.928.341.8%3.961.8203701552154.453%45%43%42%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Colorado State1226:5018.333%47%5.856.31.71.33.81.3126
New Mexico1230:0119.639%67%5.848.31.81.36.12.8228.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Offense1245% (107)44% (66)30.3108.33.613 (70).09 (77)2.97 (64)59% (131)12% (122)0.9 (91)
UNM Defense1247% (33)40% (48) - - - - .04 (37)2.63 (21)83% (129)11% (33)0.97 (76)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Defense1257% (131)46% (108) - - - - .17 (104)3.26 (123)77% (108)7% (128)0.94 (61)
UNM Offense1253% (44)43% (79)35.5155.44.422 (49).14 (54)3.15 (31)75% (46)9% (68)0.99 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Offense1254% (29)38% (110)20.332.8215.96.610.715 (103)12 (7).2 (96)1.5 (90)35% (128)28% (88).25 (91)7% (111)2 (86)
UNM Defense1252% (104)40% (57) - - - - - - 9 (100).24 (63)1.5 (43)34% (31)28% (44).27 (62)6% (56)1.9 (37)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Defense1242% (7)46% (116) - - - - - - 8 (31).38 (119)1.7 (123)27% (129)35% (125).34 (92)6% (60)1.9 (30)
UNM Offense1245% (97)42% (71)17.726.8214.5812.117 (61)9 (119).27 (62)1.6 (52)30% (48)30% (73).33 (62)5% (22)1.9 (112)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -11.08  #113
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 5.98  #85
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 17.06  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #125
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #121
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -11.08   New Mexico: 0.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -15.6   New Mexico: 1.2




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: 0.56  #88
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 4.25  #98
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 9.33  #76
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2  #66
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #69
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico 32
Colorado State 18


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico 29
Colorado State 16

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico 31
Colorado State 19

Total Points: 50
New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15New Mexico20Colorado State17New Mexico -15.5Colorado State53.5Under
202410/26Colorado State17New Mexico6Colorado State -3.5Colorado State62.0Under
202211/25Colorado State17New Mexico0Colorado State -7.5Colorado State36.0Under
202110/16New Mexico7Colorado State36Colorado State -13Colorado State44.5Under
201910/11New Mexico21Colorado State35Colorado State -4Colorado State66.5Under
201810/13Colorado State20New Mexico18New Mexico -1.5Colorado State63.0Under
201710/20New Mexico24Colorado State27Colorado State -10New Mexico61.0Under
201611/19Colorado State49New Mexico31Colorado State -5Colorado State61.5Over
201511/21New Mexico21Colorado State28Colorado State -2Colorado State56.5Under
201411/22Colorado State58New Mexico20Colorado State -21Colorado State0
201311/16New Mexico42Colorado State66Colorado State -4Colorado State0
201211/24Colorado State24New Mexico20
201109/03New Mexico10Colorado State14
201010/30Colorado State38New Mexico14
200911/21New Mexico29Colorado State27
200811/15Colorado State20New Mexico6
200711/10New Mexico26Colorado State23
200610/28Colorado State19New Mexico20
200510/28New Mexico25Colorado State35
200410/30Colorado State17New Mexico26
200311/07New Mexico37Colorado State34
200111/17New Mexico17Colorado State24
200010/06Colorado State17New Mexico14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico611 Overs
Colorado State17108 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 106 - 54 - 12 - 4
Road Teams10 - 135 - 64 - 21 - 4

(#113) CSU at (#88) UNM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCSUUNM
Power RatePwr #113 #88
SP+SP+ #125 #66
Perf GradeGrade #135 #49
OffenseOff #124 #77
DefenseDef #136 #29
Spec TeamsST #130 #58
TalentTal #87 #127
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
New Mexico Notes
(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffUNM Def
Perf GradePerf #124 #29
SuccessSuc #97 #50
ExplosiveExp #98 #59
PPAPPA #94 #47
PowerPwr #85 #76
SP+SP+ #121 #66
Pts POPPO #89 #22
HavocHav #125 #38
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #89 #25
Run SuccessRSuc #66 #48
Run ExplRExp #91 #76
PPAExp #77 #37
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLY #64 #21
Stuff RateStuff #76 #19
TackleTak -  #41
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #124 #60
Pass SuccessPSuc #110 #57
Pass ExplPExl #90 #43
PPAExp #96 #63
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #118 #11
F7 HavocF7 #122 #33
DB HavocDB #111 #56
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffCSU Def
Perf GradePerf #77 #136
SuccessSuc #78 #118
ExplosiveExp #56 #78
PPAPPA #66 #113
PowerPwr #98 #118
SP+SP+ #69 #106
Pts POPPO #48 #101
HavocHav #45 #114
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #107 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #108
Run ExplRExp #61 #61
PPAExp #54 #104
Run BlockR Blk #75 -
OL YdsOLY #31 #123
Stuff RateStuff #12 #121
TackleTak -  #66
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #24 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #71 #116
Pass ExplPExl #52 #123
PPAExp #62 #119
Pass Block/RushP Blk #114 #135
F7 HavocF7 #68 #128
DB HavocDB #22 #60
Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
New Mexico -15.5 (53.5)
New Mexico won vs Colorado State this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat New Mexico last year (17-6)
Colorado State beat New Mexico in 2022 (17-0)

  
CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)19930266%23981397.9
James Laubstein101471%96206.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)10457855.654
DJ McKinney (Tr)10945474.254
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)7734954.561
James Laubstein4430617.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)55712312.980
Dorian Thomas (Tr)53545410.334
Damon Bankston (Tr)26374314.484
Cade Keith (Tr)20253312.745

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)1267232
Tavian Combs681103
Jon Johnson500005
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855
Brett Karhu2611751
Darren Agu (Tr)294221
Gabriel Lopez146211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech90007
Jon Johnson500005
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)4813855