Colorado State at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
New Mexico -15.5 (53.5) (-700) Open: -12.5
New Mexico 20 - Colorado State: 17 (Mountain West)

Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

UNM coming off BYE
Our Line: New Mexico -9 (SP+ UNM -17)
Projected Score: CSU: 21 - UNM: 30 (52)
UNM Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
CSU Travel: 389 miles

Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
CSU Players
UNM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Colorado State at Washington	+20.5	52.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-35.0	52.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Colorado State vs UTSA	+4.5	58.5	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Colorado State vs Washington State	-4.5	48.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 10/3	Colorado State at San Diego State	+4.5	40.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Fri 10/10	Colorado State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Colorado State vs Hawai'i	-2.5	53.5	L 19 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/25	Colorado State at Wyoming	+5.5	46.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Colorado State vs UNLV	+5.5	60.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/15	Colorado State at New Mexico	+15.5	53.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Colorado State at Boise State	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/28	Colorado State vs Air Force	+2.5	47.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 4, Poor: 1

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	New Mexico at Michigan	+36.5	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/6	New Mexico vs Idaho State	-17.5	60.0	W 32 - 22	U	N
Fri 9/12	New Mexico at UCLA	+15.5	52.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-16.5	53.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Fri 10/3	New Mexico at San José State	+1.5	58.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+14.5	58.5	L 25 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	New Mexico vs Nevada	-14.0	49.5	W 24 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/25	New Mexico vs Utah State	-3.0	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/1	New Mexico at UNLV	+3.5	61.5	W 40 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	New Mexico vs Colorado State	-15.5	53.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/22	New Mexico at Air Force	-3.5	53.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Fri 11/28	New Mexico vs San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/26	New Mexico vs Minnesota	+1.5	44.5	L 17 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU	#90 (.16)	42% (76)	18.5	43% (80)	2.88 (96)	162	41% (81)	192	3.56 (98)	#61 (.16)	42% (78)	30.8	42% (59)	43% (94)	4 (88)	47.3	1.2	1.5
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)	27.1	53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)	22.3	50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Offense	13	18.5	16.6	42.2%	3.56	1.2	16	354	162	192	4.9	55%	45%	43%	41%	15%	.16
UNM Defense	12	22.3	18.7	50.4%	4.64	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	51%	14%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Defense	13	30.8	36	42.4%	4	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	42%	43%	17%	.16
UNM Offense	12	27.1	28.3	48.9%	3.83	1.6	25	485	254	231	6.7	52%	48%	53%	44%	12%	.31

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado State	13	28:44	16.5	35%	64%	5.8	47.3	1.2	1.5	4.2	1.1	2	27.8
New Mexico	12	28:52	24.7	43%	68%	9.3	81.5	1.6	0.8	3.9	1.6	1	26.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Offense	13	55% (30)	43% (80)	33.4	161.8	4.9	19 (73)	.03 (115)	2.88 (96)	55% (133)	9% (46)	0.92 (87)
UNM Defense	12	54% (106)	50% (125)	-	-	-	-	.2 (110)	3.26 (103)	71% (52)	8% (118)	0.97 (64)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Defense	13	49% (51)	42% (59)	-	-	-	-	.1 (55)	3.01 (70)	69% (45)	9% (91)	1.02 (88)
UNM Offense	12	52% (55)	53% (3)	37.8	254	6.7	37 (6)	.37 (1)	3.81 (1)	81% (20)	5% (1)	1.1 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Offense	13	45% (102)	41% (81)	16.2	26.4	191.8	7.3	11.8	15 (98)	8 (40)	.31 (43)	1.7 (25)	32% (75)	34% (37)	.42 (33)	7% (98)	2 (92)
UNM Defense	12	46% (30)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.51 (132)	1.6 (81)	26% (132)	38% (129)	.54 (129)	6% (79)	2.2 (118)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Defense	13	51% (85)	43% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.22 (59)	1.4 (16)	30% (105)	30% (64)	.27 (49)	8% (22)	1.9 (35)
UNM Offense	12	48% (77)	44% (40)	18.8	32.5	230.7	7.1	12.3	12 (118)	12 (85)	.24 (77)	1.4 (125)	27% (8)	37% (11)	.49 (13)	6% (85)	1.9 (110)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -11.19 #106
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 11.48 #77
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 22.67 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6 #124
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.6 #120
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -11.19 New Mexico: -4.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -15.6 New Mexico: 0.9

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -4.28 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 5.15 #118
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.61 #106
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 30
Colorado State 21

Projected Total Points: 52

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	New Mexico	20	Colorado State	17	New Mexico -15.5	Colorado State	53.5	Under
2024	10/26	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	6	Colorado State -3.5	Colorado State	62.0	Under
2022	11/25	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	0	Colorado State -7.5	Colorado State	36.0	Under
2021	10/16	New Mexico	7	Colorado State	36	Colorado State -13	Colorado State	44.5	Under
2019	10/11	New Mexico	21	Colorado State	35	Colorado State -4	Colorado State	66.5	Under
2018	10/13	Colorado State	20	New Mexico	18	New Mexico -1.5	Colorado State	63.0	Under
2017	10/20	New Mexico	24	Colorado State	27	Colorado State -10	New Mexico	61.0	Under
2016	11/19	Colorado State	49	New Mexico	31	Colorado State -5	Colorado State	61.5	Over
2015	11/21	New Mexico	21	Colorado State	28	Colorado State -2	Colorado State	56.5	Under
2014	11/22	Colorado State	58	New Mexico	20	Colorado State -21	Colorado State	0
2013	11/16	New Mexico	42	Colorado State	66	Colorado State -4	Colorado State	0
2012	11/24	Colorado State	24	New Mexico	20
2011	09/03	New Mexico	10	Colorado State	14
2010	10/30	Colorado State	38	New Mexico	14
2009	11/21	New Mexico	29	Colorado State	27
2008	11/15	Colorado State	20	New Mexico	6
2007	11/10	New Mexico	26	Colorado State	23
2006	10/28	Colorado State	19	New Mexico	20
2005	10/28	New Mexico	25	Colorado State	35
2004	10/30	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	26
2003	11/07	New Mexico	37	Colorado State	34
2001	11/17	New Mexico	17	Colorado State	24
2000	10/06	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico	6	1	1 Overs
Colorado State	17	10	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 10	6 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	10 - 13	5 - 6	4 - 2	1 - 4

(#106) CSU at (#118) UNM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CSU	UNM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#106	#118
SP+SP+	#124	#73
Perf GradeGrade	#135	#54
OffenseOff	#124	#90
DefenseDef	#135	#24
Spec TeamsST	#132	#61
TalentTal	#87	#127
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#79

Colorado State Notes(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report

New Mexico Notes(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report

Colorado State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UNM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#124	#24
SuccessSuc	#76	#132
ExplosiveExp	#85	#68
PPAPPA	#90	#132
PowerPwr	#77	#106
SP+SP+	#120	#66
Pts POPPO	#98	#128
HavocHav	#59	#114

Colorado State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#97	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#125
Run ExplRExp	#87	#64
PPAExp	#115	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#71	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#112	#94
TackleTak	-	#51

Colorado State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#81	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#81
PPAExp	#43	#132
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#124	#7
F7 HavocF7	#46	#118
DB HavocDB	#98	#79

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	CSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#135
SuccessSuc	#10	#78
ExplosiveExp	#86	#49
PPAPPA	#14	#61
PowerPwr	#118	#126
SP+SP+	#82	#105
Pts POPPO	#79	#88
HavocHav	#12	#59

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#91	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#59
Run ExplRExp	#21	#88
PPAExp	#1	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#93
TackleTak	-	#61

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#16
PPAExp	#77	#59
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#107	#135
F7 HavocF7	#1	#91
DB HavocDB	#85	#22

Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
New Mexico -15.5 (53.5)
New Mexico won vs Colorado State this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Colorado State last year (20-17)
Colorado State beat New Mexico in 2024 (17-6)

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jackson Brousseau	128	201	64%	1354	9	3	6.7
Darius Curry	70	107	65%	740	5	7	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Dupree	102	508	2	5.0	31
Lloyd Avant (Tr)	90	417	5	4.6	23
Justin Marshall	49	260	1	5.3	73
Javion Kinnard	12	56	0	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)	31	388	7	12.5	48
Tommy Maher	32	358	0	11.2	35
Tay Lanier	35	315	2	9.0	39
Armani Winfield	22	276	2	12.5	49

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Owen Long	148	5	2	0	5
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)	72	5	1	1	1
Jace Bellah	58	1	0	2	0
Lemondre Joe (Tr)	56	5	4	4	13

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)	56	5	4	4	13
Owen Long	148	5	2	0	5
Jeremy Naborne	35	4	2	2	0
Paul Tangelo (Tr)	19	3	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)	56	5	4	4	13
Jahari Rogers (Tr)	31	4	1	1	8
Owen Long	148	5	2	0	5

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Layne (Tr)	213	327	65%	2486	13	10	7.6
James Laubstein	11	17	65%	96	2	0	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)	114	635	5	5.6	54
DJ McKinney (Tr)	111	464	7	4.2	54
James Laubstein	59	363	1	6.2	58
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)	77	349	5	4.5	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)	59	754	3	12.8	80
Dorian Thomas (Tr)	56	560	4	10.0	34
Damon Bankston (Tr)	31	397	3	12.8	84
Cade Keith (Tr)	20	253	3	12.7	45

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)	128	7	2	3	2
Tavian Combs	72	1	1	0	3
Jon Johnson	54	0	0	0	6
Mercury Swaim	52	7	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	52	15	9	5	5
Brett Karhu	29	11	8	5	2
Gabriel Lopez	14	6	2	1	1
Mercury Swaim	52	7	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drew Speech	10	0	0	0	8
Jon Johnson	54	0	0	0	6
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	52	15	9	5	5