Utah State at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 25th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico -3 (61.5) (-155) Open: -1.5
New Mexico 33 - Utah State: 14 (Mountain West)

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

UNM 2nd straight Home Game
UNM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -5.5 (SP+ UNM -4)
Projected Score: USU: 26 - UNM: 32 (58)
UNM Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
USU Travel: 540 miles

Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
UNM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	New Mexico at Michigan	+36.5	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/6	New Mexico vs Idaho State	-17.5	60.0	W 32 - 22	U	N
Fri 9/12	New Mexico at UCLA	+15.5	52.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-16.5	53.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Fri 10/3	New Mexico at San José State	+1.5	58.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+14.5	58.5	L 25 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	New Mexico vs Nevada	-14.0	49.5	W 24 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/25	New Mexico vs Utah State	-3.0	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/1	New Mexico at UNLV	+3.5	61.5	W 40 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	New Mexico vs Colorado State	-15.5	53.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/22	New Mexico at Air Force	-3.5	53.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Fri 11/28	New Mexico vs San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/26	New Mexico vs Minnesota	+1.5	44.5	L 17 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)	30.9	48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)	28.7	48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)	27.1	53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)	22.3	50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	12	30.9	25.2	45.6%	4.42	1.8	23	468	199	269	5.7	46%	54%	48%	44%	16%	.24
UNM Defense	12	22.3	18.7	50.4%	4.64	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	51%	14%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	12	28.7	37	47.4%	4.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	48%	48%	15%	.27
UNM Offense	12	27.1	28.3	48.9%	3.83	1.6	25	485	254	231	6.7	52%	48%	53%	44%	12%	.31

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	12	27:19	22.5	40%	50%	7.8	73.8	1.8	1.3	6	2.3	1	28.1
New Mexico	12	28:52	24.7	43%	68%	9.3	81.5	1.6	0.8	3.9	1.6	1	26.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	12	46% (102)	48% (24)	35.1	199.3	5.7	21 (59)	.26 (13)	3.41 (12)	65% (117)	8% (39)	1.11 (18)
UNM Defense	12	54% (106)	50% (125)	-	-	-	-	.2 (110)	3.26 (103)	71% (52)	8% (118)	0.97 (64)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	12	51% (69)	48% (112)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.45 (128)	76% (85)	10% (70)	0.96 (56)
UNM Offense	12	52% (55)	53% (3)	37.8	254	6.7	37 (6)	.37 (1)	3.81 (1)	81% (20)	5% (1)	1.1 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	12	54% (36)	44% (37)	24.5	38.2	269.1	7.1	11	29 (12)	17 (127)	.25 (69)	1.5 (118)	29% (30)	33% (54)	.4 (38)	8% (124)	2.1 (31)
UNM Defense	12	46% (30)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.51 (132)	1.6 (81)	26% (132)	38% (129)	.54 (129)	6% (79)	2.2 (118)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	12	49% (64)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (106)	1.5 (30)	27% (129)	32% (97)	.32 (75)	5% (99)	1.8 (21)
UNM Offense	12	48% (77)	44% (40)	18.8	32.5	230.7	7.1	12.3	12 (118)	12 (85)	.24 (77)	1.4 (125)	27% (8)	37% (11)	.49 (13)	6% (85)	1.9 (110)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -16.87 #124
Utah State's Offense Rating: 6.59 #111
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.46 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -16.87 New Mexico: -4.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -3.1 New Mexico: 0.9

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -4.28 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 5.15 #118
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.61 #106
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 32
Utah State 26

Projected Total Points: 58

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	New Mexico	33	Utah State	14	New Mexico -3	New Mexico	61.5	Under
2024	10/19	Utah State	45	New Mexico	50	New Mexico -1	New Mexico	78.5	Over
2023	11/24	New Mexico	41	Utah State	44	Utah State -4.5	New Mexico	58.5	Over
2022	11/05	Utah State	27	New Mexico	10	Utah State -14.5	Utah State	42.5	Under
2021	11/26	New Mexico	10	Utah State	35	Utah State -17	Utah State	48.0	Under
2020	11/26	Utah State	41	New Mexico	27	New Mexico -6	Utah State	49.0	Over
2019	11/30	New Mexico	25	Utah State	38	Utah State -12	Utah State	63.0	Push
2018	10/27	Utah State	61	New Mexico	19	Utah State -20	Utah State	64.0	Over
2017	11/04	New Mexico	10	Utah State	24	New Mexico -3.5	Utah State	52.5	Under
2016	11/12	Utah State	21	New Mexico	24	Utah State -2.5	New Mexico	57.0	Under
2015	11/07	New Mexico	14	Utah State	13	Utah State -14.5	New Mexico	57.5	Under
2014	11/15	Utah State	28	New Mexico	21	Utah State -16	New Mexico	0
2013	10/19	New Mexico	10	Utah State	45	Utah State -10	Utah State	0
2003	10/04	New Mexico	34	Utah State	7
2002	10/19	Utah State	45	New Mexico	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico	5	6	4 Overs
Utah State	10	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 8	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3

(#124) USU at (#118) UNM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	UNM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#124	#118
SP+SP+	#79	#73
Perf GradeGrade	#97	#54
OffenseOff	#87	#90
DefenseDef	#85	#24
Spec TeamsST	#121	#61
TalentTal	#118	#127
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#79

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

New Mexico Notes(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#87	#24
SuccessSuc	#31	#132
ExplosiveExp	#59	#68
PPAPPA	#34	#132
PowerPwr	#111	#106
SP+SP+	#53	#66
Pts POPPO	#24	#128
HavocHav	#81	#114

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#68	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#125
Run ExplRExp	#18	#64
PPAExp	#13	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#94
TackleTak	-	#51

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#81
PPAExp	#69	#132
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#98	#7
F7 HavocF7	#39	#118
DB HavocDB	#124	#79

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#85
SuccessSuc	#10	#122
ExplosiveExp	#86	#42
PPAPPA	#14	#119
PowerPwr	#118	#130
SP+SP+	#82	#98
Pts POPPO	#79	#122
HavocHav	#12	#81

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#91	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#112
Run ExplRExp	#21	#56
PPAExp	#1	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#128
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#95
TackleTak	-	#111

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#30
PPAExp	#77	#106
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#107	#110
F7 HavocF7	#1	#70
DB HavocDB	#85	#99

Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
New Mexico -3.0 (61.5)
New Mexico won vs Utah State this year (33-14)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Utah State last year (33-14)
New Mexico beat Utah State in 2024 (50-45)
Utah State beat New Mexico in 2023 (44-41)

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	39	62%	323	4	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	32	2	0	1	5

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Layne (Tr)	213	327	65%	2486	13	10	7.6
James Laubstein	11	17	65%	96	2	0	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)	114	635	5	5.6	54
DJ McKinney (Tr)	111	464	7	4.2	54
James Laubstein	59	363	1	6.2	58
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)	77	349	5	4.5	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)	59	754	3	12.8	80
Dorian Thomas (Tr)	56	560	4	10.0	34
Damon Bankston (Tr)	31	397	3	12.8	84
Cade Keith (Tr)	20	253	3	12.7	45

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)	128	7	2	3	2
Tavian Combs	72	1	1	0	3
Jon Johnson	54	0	0	0	6
Mercury Swaim	52	7	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	52	15	9	5	5
Brett Karhu	29	11	8	5	2
Gabriel Lopez	14	6	2	1	1
Mercury Swaim	52	7	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drew Speech	10	0	0	0	8
Jon Johnson	54	0	0	0	6
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	52	15	9	5	5