Utah State at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 25th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico -3 (61.5) (-155) Open: -1.5
New Mexico 33 - Utah State: 14 (Mountain West)

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

UNM 2nd straight Home Game
UNM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -5.5 (SP+ UNM -2)
Projected Score: USU: 28 - UNM: 33 (61)
UNM Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
USU Travel: 540 miles

Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
UNM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	New Mexico at Michigan	+36.5	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/6	New Mexico vs Idaho State	-17.5	60.0	W 32 - 22	U	N
Fri 9/12	New Mexico at UCLA	+15.5	52.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-16.5	53.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Fri 10/3	New Mexico at San José State	+1.5	58.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+14.5	58.5	L 25 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	New Mexico vs Nevada	-14.0	49.5	W 24 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/25	New Mexico vs Utah State	-3.0	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/1	New Mexico at UNLV	+3.5	61.5	W 40 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	New Mexico vs Colorado State	-15.5	53.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/22	New Mexico at Air Force	-3.5	53.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Fri 11/28	New Mexico vs San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/26	New Mexico vs Minnesota	+1.5	44.5	L 17 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#48 (.2)	41% (91)	30.9	42% (87)	2.87 (82)	158	41% (83)	232	4.49 (18)	#111 (.22)	43% (91)	28.7	45% (100)	42% (70)	3.77 (75)	54.5	0.8	1.1
UNM	#65 (.18)	42% (76)	27.1	43% (78)	3.15 (33)	143	42% (71)	198	3.96 (44)	#48 (.11)	40% (51)	22.3	40% (49)	40% (59)	3.12 (25)	44.6	1.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	13	30.9	25.2	40.9%	4.49	0.8	20	390	158	232	4.9	47%	52%	42%	41%	16%	.2
UNM Defense	13	22.3	18.7	40%	3.12	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	40%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	13	28.7	37	43.4%	3.77	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	13%	.22
UNM Offense	13	27.1	28.3	41.8%	3.96	1.7	18	341	143	198	4.4	53%	45%	43%	42%	14%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	13	25:22	19.6	35%	54%	7.1	54.5	0.8	1.1	4.2	2.1	1	28.2
New Mexico	13	27:43	18.1	39%	67%	5.3	44.6	1.7	1.2	5.6	2.5	2	28.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	13	47% (96)	42% (87)	32.2	158.3	4.9	24 (40)	.19 (33)	2.87 (82)	71% (74)	11% (119)	1.16 (9)
UNM Defense	13	47% (36)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	.04 (36)	2.63 (21)	83% (128)	11% (33)	0.97 (73)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	13	47% (30)	45% (100)	-	-	-	-	.21 (124)	3.18 (116)	70% (59)	7% (127)	1.04 (105)
UNM Offense	13	53% (42)	43% (78)	32.8	143.5	4.4	22 (49)	.14 (54)	3.15 (33)	75% (47)	9% (69)	0.99 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (83)	17.5	28.9	232	8	13.2	24 (14)	4 (7)	.24 (70)	1.5 (68)	33% (98)	31% (56)	.36 (48)	5% (30)	2.1 (62)
UNM Defense	13	52% (106)	40% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.24 (63)	1.5 (41)	34% (33)	28% (45)	.27 (60)	6% (54)	1.9 (39)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	13	52% (111)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (38)	.24 (61)	1.5 (26)	29% (111)	33% (115)	.37 (109)	6% (59)	1.9 (27)
UNM Offense	13	45% (97)	42% (71)	16.3	24.8	198	8	12.1	17 (61)	9 (119)	.27 (62)	1.6 (53)	30% (51)	30% (72)	.33 (61)	5% (22)	1.9 (110)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -9.09 #104
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.21 #71
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.30 #120
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #74
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #51
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -9.09 New Mexico: 0.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -0.3 New Mexico: 1.2

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: 0.56 #88
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 4.25 #98
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 9.33 #76
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #66
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #69
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 33
Utah State 28

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico 36
Utah State 29

Total Points: 64

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico 30
Utah State 25

Total Points: 55

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	New Mexico	33	Utah State	14	New Mexico -3	New Mexico	61.5	Under
2024	10/19	Utah State	45	New Mexico	50	New Mexico -1	New Mexico	78.5	Over
2023	11/24	New Mexico	41	Utah State	44	Utah State -4.5	New Mexico	58.5	Over
2022	11/05	Utah State	27	New Mexico	10	Utah State -14.5	Utah State	42.5	Under
2021	11/26	New Mexico	10	Utah State	35	Utah State -17	Utah State	48.0	Under
2020	11/26	Utah State	41	New Mexico	27	New Mexico -6	Utah State	49.0	Over
2019	11/30	New Mexico	25	Utah State	38	Utah State -12	Utah State	63.0	Push
2018	10/27	Utah State	61	New Mexico	19	Utah State -20	Utah State	64.0	Over
2017	11/04	New Mexico	10	Utah State	24	New Mexico -3.5	Utah State	52.5	Under
2016	11/12	Utah State	21	New Mexico	24	Utah State -2.5	New Mexico	57.0	Under
2015	11/07	New Mexico	14	Utah State	13	Utah State -14.5	New Mexico	57.5	Under
2014	11/15	Utah State	28	New Mexico	21	Utah State -16	New Mexico	0
2013	10/19	New Mexico	10	Utah State	45	Utah State -10	Utah State	0
2003	10/04	New Mexico	34	Utah State	7
2002	10/19	Utah State	45	New Mexico	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico	5	6	4 Overs
Utah State	10	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 8	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3

(#104) USU at (#88) UNM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	UNM
Power RatePwr	#104	#88
SP+SP+	#74	#66
Perf GradeGrade	#90	#49
OffenseOff	#80	#77
DefenseDef	#80	#29
Spec TeamsST	#114	#58
TalentTal	#118	#127
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#79

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

New Mexico Notes(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
Perf GradePerf	#80	#29
SuccessSuc	#91	#51
ExplosiveExp	#19	#58
PPAPPA	#48	#48
PowerPwr	#71	#76
SP+SP+	#51	#66
Pts POPPO	#18	#25
HavocHav	#88	#40

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#81	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	#87	#49
Run ExplRExp	#9	#73
PPAExp	#33	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#103	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#21
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#17
TackleTak	-	#41

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#60
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#68	#41
PPAExp	#70	#63
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#11
F7 HavocF7	#119	#33
DB HavocDB	#30	#54

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#80
SuccessSuc	#76	#91
ExplosiveExp	#56	#63
PPAPPA	#65	#111
PowerPwr	#98	#120
SP+SP+	#69	#91
Pts POPPO	#44	#75
HavocHav	#44	#113

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#107	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#78	#100
Run ExplRExp	#59	#105
PPAExp	#54	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#12	#110
TackleTak	-	#106

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#71	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#26
PPAExp	#62	#61
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#114	#110
F7 HavocF7	#69	#127
DB HavocDB	#22	#59

Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 65° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 9
New Mexico -3.0 (61.5)
New Mexico won vs Utah State this year (33-14)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Utah State last year (50-45)
Utah State beat New Mexico in 2023 (44-41)
Utah State beat New Mexico in 2022 (27-10)

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	40	60%	323	4	1	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Ike Larsen	56	3	0	1	5

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Layne (Tr)	199	302	66%	2398	13	9	7.9
James Laubstein	10	14	71%	96	2	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)	104	578	5	5.6	54
DJ McKinney (Tr)	109	454	7	4.2	54
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)	77	349	5	4.5	61
James Laubstein	44	306	1	7.0	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)	55	712	3	12.9	80
Dorian Thomas (Tr)	53	545	4	10.3	34
Damon Bankston (Tr)	26	374	3	14.4	84
Cade Keith (Tr)	20	253	3	12.7	45

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)	126	7	2	3	2
Tavian Combs	68	1	1	0	3
Jon Johnson	50	0	0	0	5
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	48	13	8	5	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	48	13	8	5	5
Brett Karhu	26	11	7	5	1
Darren Agu (Tr)	29	4	2	2	1
Gabriel Lopez	14	6	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drew Speech	9	0	0	0	7
Jon Johnson	50	0	0	0	5
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	48	13	8	5	5