New Mexico at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo New Mexico Lobos at San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Spartan Stadium - San Jose, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (26 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: San José State -8   (SP+ SJSU -1)
Projected Score: UNM: 17 - SJSU: 25 (42)
SJSU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
UNM Travel: 863 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Spartans (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 11 - 27 (14 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#84)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-2
Sat 10/4 New Mexico at San José State+8
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+22
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-4.5
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-0.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+16
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State+5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force+4.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico vs San Diego State+7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.5
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+10
Sat 10/4 San José State vs New Mexico-8
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming+6
Sat 10/18 San José State at Utah State-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-5.5
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+6
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#118 (.07)38% (108)2836% (114)2.89 (79)18941% (90)1753.73 (83)#71 (.14)43% (98)2248% (111)41% (72)2.77 (43)15.721
SJSU#132 (-.02)40% (102)10.544% (70)2.81 (86)8038% (102)2481.4 (132)#83 (.16)42% (81)2744% (93)38% (56)3.13 (55)273.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense3282637.8%3.732213631891755.147%51%36%41%14%.07
SJSU Defense2271642%3.131 - - - - - 67%33%44%38%13%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense3222243.4%2.771 - - - - - 47%51%48%41%9%.14
SJSU Offense210.51439.7%1.43.51832880248336%63%44%38%19%-.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico333:032141%50%2.315.7212.70.7031.7
San José State228:0017.539%0%3.5273.513.50.5027
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense347% (87)36% (114)37.3188.75.17 (38).14 (69)2.89 (79)70% (79)9% (73)0.99 (59)
SJSU Defense267% (135)44% (93) - - - - .08 (76)3.08 (101)63% (43)7% (114)0.78 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense347% (51)48% (111) - - - - .1 (84)2.9 (82)94% (126)6% (121)0.73 (20)
SJSU Offense236% (134)44% (70)26.58031 (127)-.16 (132)2.81 (86)50% (124)7% (40)0.39 (136)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense351% (56)41% (90)1928.7174.76.19.24 (72)3 (92).11 (114)1.2 (124)31% (70)25% (107).19 (104)5% (68)1.8 (102)
SJSU Defense233% (3)38% (56) - - - - - - 1 (87).32 (103)1.9 (122)33% (66)14% (9).14 (41)6% (76)2.4 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense351% (77)41% (72) - - - - - - 2 (56).35 (108)1.5 (56)32% (80)27% (57).53 (116)3% (131)2.6 (127)
SJSU Offense263% (6)38% (102)22.5432485.8112 (102)3 (92).13 (109)1.3 (117)32% (88)21% (123)-.08 (132)11% (136)1.3 (131)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -16.34 #121
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 3.17 #112
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.51 #117
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -16.34   San José State: -6.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -13.0   San José State: -11.8




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -6.53 #96
San José State's Offense Rating: 3.95 #111
San José State's Defense Rating: 10.21 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8 #111
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
San José State 25
New Mexico 17


Total Points: 42

San José State Scoring
Offense: 10.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 14
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 16

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/14New Mexico24San José State52San José StateSan José State -6.5San José State55.0Over
202010/31New Mexico21San José State38San José StateSan José State -9.5San José State0
201910/04San José State32New Mexico21San José StateSan José State -6.5San José State70.0Under
201610/01New Mexico48San José State41New MexicoNew Mexico -4.5New Mexico51.5Over
201510/24San José State31New Mexico21San José StateSan José State -7.5San José State56.0Under
200612/23San José State20New Mexico12San José State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State542 Overs
New Mexico112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 23 - 23 - 00 - 2
Road Teams2 - 42 - 32 - 00 - 3

(#121) New Mexico Info
Power Rating: -16.34 #121
Offense Rating: 3.17 #112
Defense Rating: 19.51 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #128
Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Good in Scoring Position 2.77 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

New Mexico has lost 1 straight
New Mexico has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico Notes
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle

New Mexico Highlights
New Mexico does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#24)

New Mexico defense does not give up big plays (#30)
New Mexico commits very few Penalties (#1)

New Mexico Deficiencies
New Mexico has a bad TO Margin (#116)
New Mexico Fumbles a Lot (#113)
New Mexico offense is really bad (#108)
New Mexico offense is not Explosive (#111)
New Mexico run game is really bad (#114)
New Mexico does not Sack the QB (#122)
New Mexico Does Not Stuff Runs (#100)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSJSUUNM
OverallOver#109#50
OffenseOff#108#75
DefenseDef#97#34
Special TeamsST#37#24
PassingPass#93#41
RushingRush#102#50
Run BlockRBLK#102#60
Pass BlockPBLK#118#94
Route RunningWR Rt#89#93
TacklingTkl#75#51
Run DefenseR Def#75#33
Pass Rush DefPRush#82#23
Coverage DefCov#115#60

Previous Matchups
San José State beat New Mexico in 2023 (52-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNM | SJSU
Depth Chart: UNM | SJSU
Rosters: UNM | SJSU
(#96) San José State Info
Power Rating: -6.53 #96
Offense Rating: 3.95 #111
Defense Rating: 10.21 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106
Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 36%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.4 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Awful OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.13 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

San José State has lost 4 straight
San José State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

San José State Notes
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
(5/4) OL 4/5 back, grades are rough. No portals?
(5/4) Def bad LY, 5 portals, LB Pollard a machine
(5/4) Great job by Niumatalolo & staff with 8 W's

San José State Highlights
San José State commits very few Penalties (#1)

San José State Deficiencies
San José State has a really bad Offense
San José State has a really bad Offense at Home
San José State has a bad TO Margin (#125)
San José State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
San José State Can Not Run the Ball (#134)
San José State offense is really bad (#102)
San José State offense is not Explosive (#134)
San José State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#132)
San José State pass game is really bad (#102)
San José State does not Sack the QB (#130)
San José State has a bad defensive line (#101)


  
New Mexico's OC Luke Schleusner
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)568467%515336.1
DJ McKinney (Tr)11100%9109.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)3422236.561
Damon Bankston (Tr)2520028.054
DJ McKinney (Tr)3013914.617
James Laubstein5501.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dorian Thomas (Tr)1816829.325
Damon Bankston (Tr)8125115.655
Michael Buckley453013.325
Keagan Johnson (Tr)84605.814

View New Mexico's Full Roster
New Mexico's DC Spence Nowinsky
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)340011
Tavian Combs160000
Caleb Coleman (Tr)150000
David Scott-Murphy122000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brett Karhu72110
Xavier Slayton (Tr)101100
Gabriel Lopez21110
Landon Williams10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech40002
Jaxton Eck (Tr)340011
Jon Johnson70001

San José State's OC Craig Stutzmann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget458553%496235.8
Tama Amisone010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV208304.211
Jabari Bates104414.413
Lamar Radcliffe123102.68
Tama Amisone52304.610
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)16255115.946
Kyri Shoels108708.716
Leland Smith (Tr)250125.039
Jackson Canaan63906.512

View San José State's Full Roster
San José State's DC Derrick Odum
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard200012
Taniela Latu153001
Jalen Apalit-Williams140011
Noah McNeal-Franklin132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)82121
Jordan Pollard200012
Justin Stearns50000
Dejon Roney10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard200012
Jalen Apalit-Williams140011
Isiah Revis80001