New Mexico at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo New Mexico Lobos at San José State SpartansSan José State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Spartan Stadium - San Jose, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (31 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: San José State -14   (SP+ SJSU -13)
Projected Score: UNM: 25 - SJSU: 39 (64)
SJSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
UNM Travel: 863 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (29 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+34.552.5
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-7
Sat 9/13 New Mexico at UCLA+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-4.5
Sat 10/4 New Mexico at San José State+14
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+28.5
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-3
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-1.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+14
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State+4.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force+6
Sat 11/29 New Mexico vs San Diego State+2

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-10.551.0
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+36
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-18.5
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+2
Sat 10/4 San José State vs New Mexico-14
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-5.5
Sat 10/18 San José State at Utah State-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-9
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-10.5
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State-5
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State-4.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)33.553% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)3850% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)28.441% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)27.542% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1233.530.748.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31
SJSU Defense1327.525.640.8%3.582.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense123837.450.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
SJSU Offense1328.42943.9%3.62.222410883223.637%63%41%46%18%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
San José State1326:2321.740%53%761.52.22.27.21.9228.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)
SJSU Defense1353% (94)42% (66) - - - - .03 (21)2.71 (23)77% (96)11% (41)0.86 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
SJSU Offense1337% (131)41% (98)24.687.93.613 (105)-.06 (131)2.27 (133)70% (91)9% (57)0.81 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)
SJSU Defense1347% (43)39% (47) - - - - - - 21 (1).19 (48)1.7 (105)34% (36)29% (45).24 (38)6% (56)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
SJSU Offense1363% (3)46% (28)24.342.3321.87.613.231 (6)16 (124).33 (39)1.6 (74)30% (53)34% (46).38 (49)9% (131)2.1 (65)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -15.00 #106
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 14.53 #63
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 29.53 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 326.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #70
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.4 #130
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #97
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #134

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.6
Average FBS Talent: 681.96

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -15.00   San José State: -2.54

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.4   San José State: -5.2




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -2.54 #81
San José State's Offense Rating: 11.29 #84
San José State's Defense Rating: 16.17 #75
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #83
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #81
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #92

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.6
Average FBS Talent: 681.96


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.7
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
San José State 39
New Mexico 25


Projected Total Points: 64
San José State Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/14New Mexico24San José State52San José StateSan José State -6.5San José State55.0Over
202010/31New Mexico21San José State38San José StateSan José State -9.5San José State0
201910/04San José State32New Mexico21San José StateSan José State -6.5San José State70.0Under
201610/01New Mexico48San José State41New MexicoNew Mexico -4.5New Mexico51.5Over
201510/24San José State31New Mexico21San José StateSan José State -7.5San José State56.0Under
200612/23San José State20New Mexico12San José State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State542 Overs
New Mexico112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 23 - 23 - 00 - 2
Road Teams2 - 42 - 32 - 00 - 3

(#106) New Mexico Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -15.00 #106
Offense Rating: 14.53 #63
Defense Rating: 29.53 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.4 #130
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #97
Defense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #134
Talent Rating: 326.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #70
Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 49%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Good Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.64 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


New Mexico Notes
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
(3/26) New HC Eck was 26-13 @ Idaho, good off
(3/26) New OC Schleusner w/ Eck @ Idaho
(3/18) QB Jack Layne (FCS Idaho) starter?
New Mexico     Ratings Matchup     San José State
Power #106
#81
Off #63
#84
Def #134
#75
Talent #129
#107
SP+ #130
#83
SP+ Off #97
#81
SP+ Def #134
#92

Previous Matchups
San José State beat New Mexico in 2023 (52-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNM | SJSU
Depth Chart: UNM | SJSU
Rosters: UNM | SJSU
(#81) San José State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.54 #81
Offense Rating: 11.29 #84
Defense Rating: 16.17 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #83
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #81
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #92
Talent Rating: 488.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.6 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 46%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


San José State Notes
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) RB Chalk back, some depth. Better TY?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
(5/4) OL 4/5 back, grades are rough. No portals?
(5/4) Def bad LY, 5 portals, LB Pollard a machine
(5/4) Great job by Niumatalolo & staff with 8 W's


  
New Mexico's OC Luke Schleusner
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)8313263%11591148.8
Cole Welliver (Tr)2450%10002.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)1881291156.979
Deshaun Buchanan (Tr)6050648.472
DJ McKinney (Tr)9547935.059
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters2212415.620
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)29359112.435
Michael Buckley8103012.918
Aiden Valdez (Tr)109039.037
DJ McKinney (Tr)117907.216

View New Mexico's Full Roster
New Mexico's DC Spence Nowinsky
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randolph Kpai805153
Dmitri Johnson775212
Ky'won McCray (Tr)665144
Austin Brawley (Tr)382002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)106500
Dmitri Johnson775212
Randolph Kpai805153
Xavier Slayton (Tr)52100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ky'won McCray (Tr)665144
Randolph Kpai805153
Austin Brawley (Tr)382002

San José State's OC Craig Stutzmann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget18832857%250413107.6
Xavier Ward1333%16015.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV154721104.766
Jabari Bates5925414.331
Lamar Radcliffe3314114.318
Walker Eget299903.432
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)50650413.041
Matthew Coleman34401211.833
Jackson Canaan28314211.258
Cooper Hoch107607.617

View San José State's Full Roster
San José State's DC Derrick Odum
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard11514223
Taniela Latu717132
Isiah Revis716125
Noah McNeal-Franklin534120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Ward467341
Jordan Pollard11514223
Justin Stearns284220
Taniela Latu717132
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isiah Revis716125
Jordan Pollard11514223
Ethan Powell446133