New Mexico at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo   New Mexico Lobos at San José State Spartans  San José State logo
Friday, October 3rd 2025 (10:00 PM EDT)
San José State -1.5 (58.5) (-120)  Open: -3.5
San José State 35 - New Mexico: 28  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
Our Line: New Mexico -2.5  (SP+ UNM -15)
Projected Score: UNM: 29 - SJSU: 27 (56)
SJSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UNM Travel: 863 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.553.5W 38 - 20OY
Fri 10/3 New Mexico at San José State+1.558.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+14.558.5L 25 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-14.049.5W 24 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-3.061.5W 33 - 14UY
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+3.561.5W 40 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.553.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force-3.553.5W 20 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.541.5W 23 - 17UY
Fri 12/26 New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.544.5L 17 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+3.049.5L 29 - 30OY
Fri 10/3 San José State vs New Mexico-1.558.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-1.550.5L 28 - 35ON
Fri 10/17 San José State at Utah State+3.063.5L 25 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.555.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6.067.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10.049.5L 10 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+10.050.5L 3 - 25UN
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+3.546.0L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)27.153% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)22.350% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)21.441% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)32.542% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1227.127.548.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31
SJSU Defense1332.529.540.8%3.582.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense1222.326.350.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
SJSU Offense1321.425.843.9%3.62.222410883223.637%63%41%46%18%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
San José State1326:2321.740%53%761.52.22.27.21.9228.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)
SJSU Defense1353% (94)42% (66) - - - - .03 (21)2.71 (23)77% (96)11% (41)0.86 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
SJSU Offense1337% (131)41% (98)24.687.93.613 (105)-.06 (131)2.27 (133)70% (91)9% (57)0.81 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)
SJSU Defense1347% (43)39% (47) - - - - - - 21 (1).19 (48)1.7 (105)34% (36)29% (45).24 (38)6% (56)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
SJSU Offense1363% (3)46% (28)24.342.3321.87.613.231 (6)16 (124).33 (39)1.6 (74)30% (53)34% (46).38 (49)9% (131)2.1 (65)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -14.46  #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 5.15  #118
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.61  #106
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.46   San José State: -9.035

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: 0.9   San José State: -14.3




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -9.035  #95
San José State's Offense Rating: 10.64  #84
San José State's Defense Rating: 19.41  #103
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #118
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico 29
San José State 27


Projected Total Points: 56
San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.8
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/03San José State35New Mexico28San José State -1.5San José State58.5Over
202310/14New Mexico24San José State52San José State -6.5San José State55.0Over
202010/31New Mexico21San José State38San José State -9.5San José State0
201910/04San José State32New Mexico21San José State -6.5San José State70.0Under
201610/01New Mexico48San José State41New Mexico -4.5New Mexico51.5Over
201510/24San José State31New Mexico21San José State -7.5San José State56.0Under
200612/23San José State20New Mexico12
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State653 Overs
New Mexico112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 24 - 24 - 00 - 2
Road Teams2 - 52 - 42 - 00 - 4

(#118) UNM at (#95) SJSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNMSJSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #118 #95
SP+SP+ #73 #118
Perf GradeGrade #54 #116
OffenseOff #90 #114
DefenseDef #24 #91
Spec TeamsST #61 #44
TalentTal #127 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #101
New Mexico Notes
(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report
San José State Notes
(11/21) DC Derrick Odum fired after Nevada blowout
(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
San José State Injury Report
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffSJSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #90 #91
SuccessSuc #10 #57
ExplosiveExp #86 #48
PPAPPA #14 #27
PowerPwr #118 #103
SP+SP+ #82 #115
Pts POPPO #79 #44
HavocHav #12 #47
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #91 #40
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #66
Run ExplRExp #21 #16
PPAExp #1 #21
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #23
Stuff RateStuff #3 #30
TackleTak -  #107
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #40 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #47
Pass ExplPExl #125 #105
PPAExp #77 #48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #107 #96
F7 HavocF7 #1 #41
DB HavocDB #85 #56
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffUNM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #114 #24
SuccessSuc #56 #132
ExplosiveExp #54 #68
PPAPPA #71 #132
PowerPwr #84 #106
SP+SP+ #108 #66
Pts POPPO #96 #128
HavocHav #110 #114
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #76 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #98 #125
Run ExplRExp #127 #64
PPAExp #131 #110
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #133 #103
Stuff RateStuff #134 #94
TackleTak -  #51
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #102 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #131
Pass ExplPExl #74 #81
PPAExp #39 #132
Pass Block/RushP Blk #117 #7
F7 HavocF7 #57 #118
DB HavocDB #131 #79
Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
San José State -1.5 (58.5)
San José State won vs New Mexico this year (35-28)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat New Mexico last year (35-28)
San José State beat New Mexico in 2023 (52-24)

  
UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)21332765%248613107.6
James Laubstein111765%96205.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)11463555.654
DJ McKinney (Tr)11146474.254
James Laubstein5936316.258
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)7734954.561
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)59754312.880
Dorian Thomas (Tr)56560410.034
Damon Bankston (Tr)31397312.884
Cade Keith (Tr)20253312.745

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)1287232
Tavian Combs721103
Jon Johnson540006
Mercury Swaim527212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)5215955
Brett Karhu2911852
Gabriel Lopez146211
Mercury Swaim527212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech100008
Jon Johnson540006
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)5215955

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget23239359%30581797.8
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Steve Chavez-Soto8744875.166
Lamar Radcliffe6634015.230
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)8812971014.772
Kyri Shoels59768213.043
Leland Smith (Tr)43695316.245
Jackson Canaan3331509.544

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard1085344
Taniela Latu656113
Noah McNeal-Franklin636132
Jaylen Thomas591006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)347471
Jordan Pollard1085344
Gafa Faga476350
Quincy Likio415210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Thomas591006
Jalen Bainer441105
Jordan Pollard1085344