New Mexico at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo   New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos  Boise State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (9:45 PM EDT)
Boise State -14.5 (58.5) (-650)  Open: -16.5
Boise State 41 - New Mexico: 25  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
UNM 2nd straight Road Game
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -11  (SP+ BSU -2)

Projected Score: UNM: 23 - BSU: 34 (57)
BSU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
UNM Travel: 780 miles
Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
 
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.553.5W 38 - 20OY
Fri 10/3 New Mexico at San José State+1.558.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+14.558.5L 25 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-14.049.5W 24 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-3.061.5W 33 - 14UY
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+3.561.5W 40 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.553.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force-3.553.5W 20 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.541.5W 23 - 17UY
Fri 12/26 New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.544.5L 17 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.551.5W 49 - 37OY
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-16.559.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+21.563.5L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-14.558.5W 41 - 25OY
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-12.560.5W 56 - 31OY
Fri 10/24 Boise State at Nevada-20.551.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-17.547.5L 7 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State+1.541.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-17.546.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/28 Boise State at Utah State-1.554.5W 25 - 24UN
Fri 12/5 Boise State vs UNLV-6.060.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 12/13 Boise State vs Washington+9.555.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)27.153% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)22.350% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)29.949% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)24.139% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1227.127.548.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31
BSU Defense1424.122.338.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense1222.326.350.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
BSU Offense1429.941.348.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -14.46  #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 5.15  #118
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.61  #106
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.46   Boise State: 4.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: 0.9   Boise State: 3.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 4.335  #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.41  #68
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.84  #61
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 34
New Mexico 23


Projected Total Points: 57
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Boise State41New Mexico25Boise State -14.5Boise State58.5Over
202311/11Boise State42New Mexico14Boise State -27.5Boise State58.5Under
202209/09New Mexico14Boise State31Boise State -17NA43.5Over
202111/20Boise State37New Mexico0Boise State -27.5Boise State48.0Under
201911/16Boise State42New Mexico9Boise State -27.5Boise State59.0Under
201811/16New Mexico14Boise State45Boise State -21Boise State61.0Under
201709/14Boise State28New Mexico14Boise State -16New Mexico56.5Under
201610/07New Mexico21Boise State49Boise State -16.5Boise State61.5Over
201511/14Boise State24New Mexico31Boise State -29.5New Mexico57.0Under
201411/08New Mexico49Boise State60Boise State -14.5New Mexico0
201311/30Boise State45New Mexico17Boise State -35New Mexico0
201209/29New Mexico29Boise State32
201112/03Boise State45New Mexico0
200009/01New Mexico14Boise State31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State1363 Overs
New Mexico146 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 75 - 54 - 31 - 2
Road Teams7 - 75 - 52 - 13 - 4

(#118) UNM at (#67) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNMBSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #118 #67
SP+SP+ #73 #64
Perf GradeGrade #54 #86
OffenseOff #90 #81
DefenseDef #24 #77
Spec TeamsST #61 #54
TalentTal #127 #77
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #88
New Mexico Notes
(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report
Boise State Notes
(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffBSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #90 #77
SuccessSuc #10 #27
ExplosiveExp #86 #119
PPAPPA #14 #59
PowerPwr #118 #61
SP+SP+ #82 #60
Pts POPPO #79 #24
HavocHav #12 #7
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #91 #123
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #33
Run ExplRExp #21 #113
PPAExp #1 #72
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #34
Stuff RateStuff #3 #21
TackleTak -  #134
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #40 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #29
Pass ExplPExl #125 #96
PPAExp #77 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #107 #82
F7 HavocF7 #1 #3
DB HavocDB #85 #83
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffUNM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #24
SuccessSuc #12 #132
ExplosiveExp #37 #68
PPAPPA #3 #132
PowerPwr #68 #106
SP+SP+ #55 #66
Pts POPPO #4 #128
HavocHav #20 #114
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #23 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #125
Run ExplRExp #5 #64
PPAExp #6 #110
Run BlockR Blk #39 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #103
Stuff RateStuff #58 #94
TackleTak -  #51
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #92 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #131
Pass ExplPExl #119 #81
PPAExp #12 #132
Pass Block/RushP Blk #116 #7
F7 HavocF7 #10 #118
DB HavocDB #58 #79
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Boise State -14.5 (58.5)
Boise State won vs New Mexico this year (41-25)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat New Mexico last year (41-25)
Boise State beat New Mexico in 2023 (42-14)

  
UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)21332765%248613107.6
James Laubstein111765%96205.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)11463555.654
DJ McKinney (Tr)11146474.254
James Laubstein5936316.258
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)7734954.561
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)59754312.880
Dorian Thomas (Tr)56560410.034
Damon Bankston (Tr)31397312.884
Cade Keith (Tr)20253312.745

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)1287232
Tavian Combs721103
Jon Johnson540006
Mercury Swaim527212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)5215955
Brett Karhu2911852
Gabriel Lopez146211
Mercury Swaim527212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech100008
Jon Johnson540006
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)5215955

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Malik Sherrod (Tr)8541844.944
Maddux Madsen578141.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Latrell Caples51616312.134
Chris Marshall30574219.146
Chase Penry30394113.146
Matt Lauter3733028.920

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield1059013
Marco Notarainni776382
Zion Washington663112
Boen Phelps664150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Braxton Fely247650
Sterling Lane63310
Malakai Williams (Tr)114370
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Earby602109
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey (Tr)387115