New Mexico at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo New Mexico Lobos at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (26 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
UNM 2nd straight Road Game
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -22   (SP+ BSU -17)

Projected Score: UNM: 16 - BSU: 38 (54)
BSU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 52%
UNM Travel: 780 miles
Broncos (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-2
Sat 10/4 New Mexico at San José State+8
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+22
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-4.5
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-0.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+16
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State+5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force+4.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico vs San Diego State+7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-17
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+16.5
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-22
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-8.5
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-19
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-14.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#118 (.07)38% (108)2836% (114)2.89 (79)18941% (90)1753.73 (83)#71 (.14)43% (98)2248% (111)41% (72)2.77 (43)15.721
BSU#75 (.19)47% (42)2954% (25)2.97 (71)22541% (89)2832.81 (120)#65 (.12)29% (9)2431% (16)27% (12)4.56 (107)561.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense3282637.8%3.732213631891755.147%51%36%41%14%.07
BSU Defense2241429.2%4.561 - - - - - 47%53%31%27%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense3222243.4%2.771 - - - - - 47%51%48%41%9%.14
BSU Offense2295147.1%2.811.5245082252835.848%52%54%41%16%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico333:032141%50%2.315.7212.70.7031.7
Boise State232:2223.543%29%7561.5172.5033
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense347% (87)36% (114)37.3188.75.17 (38).14 (69)2.89 (79)70% (79)9% (73)0.99 (59)
BSU Defense247% (47)31% (16) - - - - .15 (102)2.85 (77)57% (28)13% (33)1.65 (135)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense347% (51)48% (111) - - - - .1 (84)2.9 (82)94% (126)6% (121)0.73 (20)
BSU Offense248% (84)54% (25)38.52255.85 (62).16 (60)2.97 (71)80% (36)10% (86)0.84 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense351% (56)41% (90)1928.7174.76.19.24 (72)3 (92).11 (114)1.2 (124)31% (70)25% (107).19 (104)5% (68)1.8 (102)
BSU Defense253% (92)27% (12) - - - - - - 1 (87).1 (37)2 (129)50% (2)21% (30).2 (56)4% (104)2.8 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense351% (77)41% (72) - - - - - - 2 (56).35 (108)1.5 (56)32% (80)27% (57).53 (116)3% (131)2.6 (127)
BSU Offense252% (51)41% (89)2238.5282.57.312.83 (90)0 (1).22 (81)1.4 (98)36% (115)35% (45).04 (120)6% (86)1 (136)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -16.34 #121
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 3.17 #112
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.51 #117
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -16.34   Boise State: 7.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -13.0   Boise State: 3.9




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 7.1 #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Boise State's Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 38
New Mexico 16


Total Points: 54

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 14

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/11Boise State42New Mexico14Boise StateBoise State -27.5Boise State58.5Under
202209/09New Mexico14Boise State31Boise StateBoise State -17NA43.5Over
202111/20Boise State37New Mexico0Boise StateBoise State -27.5Boise State48.0Under
201911/16Boise State42New Mexico9Boise StateBoise State -27.5Boise State59.0Under
201811/16New Mexico14Boise State45Boise StateBoise State -21Boise State61.0Under
201709/14Boise State28New Mexico14Boise StateBoise State -16New Mexico56.5Under
201610/07New Mexico21Boise State49Boise StateBoise State -16.5Boise State61.5Over
201511/14Boise State24New Mexico31New MexicoBoise State -29.5New Mexico57.0Under
201411/08New Mexico49Boise State60Boise StateBoise State -14.5New Mexico0
201311/30Boise State45New Mexico17Boise StateBoise State -35New Mexico0
201209/29New Mexico29Boise State32Boise State
201112/03Boise State45New Mexico0Boise State
200009/01New Mexico14Boise State31Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State1252 Overs
New Mexico146 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 74 - 53 - 31 - 2
Road Teams7 - 65 - 42 - 13 - 3

(#121) New Mexico Info
Power Rating: -16.34 #121
Offense Rating: 3.17 #112
Defense Rating: 19.51 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #128
Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Good in Scoring Position 2.77 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

New Mexico has lost 2 straight
New Mexico has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico Notes
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle

New Mexico Highlights
New Mexico does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#24)

New Mexico defense does not give up big plays (#30)
New Mexico commits very few Penalties (#1)

New Mexico Deficiencies
New Mexico has a bad TO Margin (#116)
New Mexico Fumbles a Lot (#113)
New Mexico offense is really bad (#108)
New Mexico offense is not Explosive (#111)
New Mexico run game is really bad (#114)
New Mexico does not Sack the QB (#122)
New Mexico Does Not Stuff Runs (#100)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBSUUNM
OverallOver#53#50
OffenseOff#40#75
DefenseDef#62#34
Special TeamsST#85#24
PassingPass#64#41
RushingRush#21#50
Run BlockRBLK#17#60
Pass BlockPBLK#72#94
Route RunningWR Rt#72#93
TacklingTkl#110#51
Run DefenseR Def#66#33
Pass Rush DefPRush#64#23
Coverage DefCov#51#60

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat New Mexico in 2023 (42-14)
Boise State beat New Mexico in 2022 (31-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNM | BSU
Depth Chart: UNM | BSU
Rosters: UNM | BSU
(#67) Boise State Info
Power Rating: 7.1 #67
Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.81 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.56 PPO
Great Run Def Success 31%
Great Pass Def Success 27%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Boise State has lost 3 straight
Boise State has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Boise State Notes
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
(6/8) RB Sherrod had 960 yds rush, 44/260 rec in '23
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs

Boise State Highlights
Boise State is Undefeated at Home
Boise State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Boise State has a really good defense (#9)
Boise State has a good run defense (#16)
Boise State has a good pass defense (#12)

Boise State Deficiencies
Boise State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Boise State offense is not Explosive (#112)
Boise State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#126)
Boise State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#120)
Boise State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#136)
Boise State has a bad red zone defense (#107)


  
New Mexico's OC Luke Schleusner
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)568467%515336.1
DJ McKinney (Tr)11100%9109.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)3422236.561
Damon Bankston (Tr)2520028.054
DJ McKinney (Tr)3013914.617
James Laubstein5501.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dorian Thomas (Tr)1816829.325
Damon Bankston (Tr)8125115.655
Michael Buckley453013.325
Keagan Johnson (Tr)84605.814

View New Mexico's Full Roster
New Mexico's DC Spence Nowinsky
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)340011
Tavian Combs160000
Caleb Coleman (Tr)150000
David Scott-Murphy122000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brett Karhu72110
Xavier Slayton (Tr)101100
Gabriel Lopez21110
Landon Williams10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech40002
Jaxton Eck (Tr)340011
Jon Johnson70001

Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen417257%532307.4
Max Cutforth3560%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley13143111.077
Sire Gaines2314216.246
Malik Sherrod (Tr)186913.820
Maddux Madsen156614.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Marshall6151125.246
Ben Ford7126218.060
Matt Lauter880010.020
Latrell Caples569013.816

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield153000
Marco Notarainni131040
Jeremiah Earby111100
Zion Washington110001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely82200
Lopez Sanusi21100
Dion Washington (Tr)31100
Max Stege31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy10002
Zion Washington110001
Travis Anderson10001