Bowling Green at Minnesota - 2023 Matchup Preview

Bowling Green Falcons vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

Tuesday, December 26th 2023 (2:00 PM EST)
Minnesota -2.5 (45.0) (-180) Open: -6.0 | 37.5
Minnesota 30 - Bowling Green: 24 (Quick Lane Bowl)

Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 26 - 24 (25 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Minnesota -2 (SP+ MINN -5)
Projected Score: BGSU: 22 - MINN: 24 (47)
MINN Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BGSU Travel: 543 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Golden Gophers (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (46 - 28)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (21 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 8.2 (#102)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
BGSU Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Bowling Green at Liberty	+8.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/9	Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Bowling Green at Michigan	+40.5	53.5	L 6 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+13.0	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Bowling Green at Georgia Tech	+21.0	49.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+7.5	43.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+3.0	44.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Bowling Green vs Akron	-7.0	37.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-4.5	39.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Wed 11/8	Bowling Green at Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 49 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+9.5	48.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Tue 11/21	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	-2.0	54.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/26	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Minnesota's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Minnesota vs Nebraska	-7.5	43.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Minnesota vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	48.0	W 25 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Minnesota at North Carolina	+7.0	51.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/23	Minnesota at Northwestern	-11.5	39.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Minnesota vs Louisiana	-9.5	49.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Minnesota vs Michigan	+18.5	46.0	L 10 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Minnesota at Iowa	+3.0	30.5	W 12 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Minnesota vs Michigan State	-6.5	41.5	W 27 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Minnesota vs Illinois	-1.5	43.0	L 26 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/11	Minnesota at Purdue	-1.5	48.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Minnesota at Ohio State	+27.5	51.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/25	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+1.5	42.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Tue 12/26	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-2.5	45.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	26.2	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2
MINN	#118 (.09)	41% (87)	20.9	44% (53)	3.15 (61)	158	36% (116)	143	3.85 (73)	#93 (.22)	43% (75)	26.7	45% (90)	41% (63)	4.67 (129)	27.1	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)		41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)		39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	13	26.2	25	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18
MINN Defense	13	26.7	22.7	42.6%	4.67	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	45%	41%	11%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	13	24	23.1	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15
MINN Offense	13	20.9	21.4	40.5%	3.85	1.3	18	301	158	143	4.1	59%	40%	44%	36%	13%	.09

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8
Minnesota	13	31:49	18.2	35%	82%	3	27.1	1.3	1.5	3.2	1.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)
MINN Defense	13	47% (34)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.2 (102)	3.15 (79)	80% (109)	7% (132)	0.99 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)
MINN Offense	13	59% (12)	44% (53)	38.8	157.5	4.1	13 (108)	.11 (92)	3.15 (61)	75% (52)	7% (13)	0.83 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)
MINN Defense	13	51% (94)	41% (63)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (83)	1.6 (73)	30% (106)	30% (71)	.42 (112)	5% (116)	2.2 (105)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)
MINN Offense	13	40% (121)	36% (116)	12.6	24	143.4	6	11.4	16 (92)	11 (68)	.1 (123)	1.6 (53)	29% (26)	27% (99)	.16 (117)	6% (52)	1.9 (106)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -3.52 #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -3.52 Minnesota: -2.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -5.9 Minnesota: -1.3

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -2.74 #88
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Minnesota's 2023 Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20
Minnesota's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.1

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 24
Bowling Green 22

Total Points: 47

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.4
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Minnesota's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/26	Minnesota	30	Bowling Green	24	Minnesota	Minnesota -2.5	Minnesota	45.0	Over
2021	09/25	Minnesota	10	Bowling Green	14	Bowling Green	Minnesota -30.5	Bowling Green	52.5	Under
2008	09/06	Bowling Green	17	Minnesota	42	Minnesota
2007	09/01	Minnesota	31	Bowling Green	32	Bowling Green

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	2	1	1 Overs
Bowling Green	2	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

Bowling Green Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Lane Bowl	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30
2022	Lane Bowl	Bowling Green vs New Mexico State	-3.0	51.0	L 19 - 24

Minnesota Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Lane Bowl	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-2.5	45.0	W 30 - 24
2022	Pinstripe Bowl	Minnesota vs Syracuse	-10.5	45.0	W 28 - 20
2021	Rate Bowl	Minnesota vs West Virginia	-5.0	44.5	W 18 - 6
2019	Outback Bowl	Minnesota vs Auburn	+7.0	54.0	W 31 - 24
2018	Lane Bowl	Minnesota vs Georgia Tech	+5.5	57.0	W 34 - 10

(#85) Bowling Green Info
Power Rating: -3.52 #85
Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40

Bowling Green has played in 3 Bowls in the last 5 years (0 - 3)
Bowling Green has played in 11 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 8)

Bowling Green Highlights
Bowling Green offense is explosive (#128)
Bowling Green Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Bowling Green has a good pass defense (#58)
Bowling Green Secondary is very good (#125)
Bowling Green defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Bowling Green Deficiencies
Bowling Green Commits a Lot of Penalties (#95)
Bowling Green throws a Lot of Interceptions (#1)
Bowling Green offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Bowling Green Does Not Stuff Runs (#30)
Bowling Green has a bad defensive line (#31)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	MINN	BGSU
OverallOver	#56	#69
OffenseOff	#57	#91
DefenseDef	#69	#38
Special TeamsST	#75	#48
PassingPass	#91	#101
RushingRush	#30	#24
Run BlockRBLK	#30	#84
Pass BlockPBLK	#59	#111
Route RunningWR Rt	#93	#50
TacklingTkl	#96	#21
Run DefenseR Def	#94	#88
Pass Rush DefPRush	#27	#24
Coverage DefCov	#69	#9

Rematch from Week 1
Minnesota -2.5 (45.0)
Minnesota won vs Bowling Green this year (30-24)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Bowling Green in 2023 (30-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ford Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BGSU | MINN
Depth Chart: BGSU | MINN
Rosters: BGSU | MINN

(#88) Minnesota Info
Power Rating: -2.74 #88
Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20

Minnesota has played in 6 Bowls in the last 5 years (6 - 0)
Minnesota has played in 19 Bowls since 2000 (11 - 8)

Minnesota Highlights
Minnesota commits very few Penalties (#38)

Minnesota Deficiencies
Minnesota has a really bad Offense
Minnesota offense is not Explosive (#72)
Minnesota pass game is really bad (#31)
Minnesota has a bad red zone defense (#77)

Bowling Green's OC Greg Nosal

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)	168	277	61%	1935	12	7	7.0
Camden Orth	39	68	57%	486	5	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	125	762	8	6.1	54
Taron Keith	66	390	4	5.9	40
Camden Orth	67	208	5	3.1	18
Jaison Patterson	35	128	1	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	44	623	6	14.2	56
Odieu Hilaire	45	532	4	11.8	46
Taron Keith	44	457	3	10.4	58
Austin Osborne	29	302	0	10.4	42

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

Bowling Green's DC Sammy Lawanson

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Joseph Sipp Jr.	73	4	0	1	0
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	27	11	10	5	1
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Jordan Porter	18	4	3	1	1
Dierre Kelly	20	4	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6
Jordan Oladokun	30	1	0	0	5

Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Athan Kaliakmanis	156	294	53%	1838	14	9	6.3
Cole Kramer	8	17	47%	26	2	2	1.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	138	799	5	5.8	43
Jordan Nubin	127	559	3	4.4	21
Sean Tyler (Tr)	61	242	0	4.0	19
Zach Evans	52	230	1	4.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	59	831	8	14.1	39
Corey Crooms (Tr)	28	376	0	13.4	32
Brevyn Spann-Ford	25	239	2	9.6	31
Darius Taylor	11	92	0	8.4	25

View Minnesota's Full Roster

Minnesota's DC Nick Monroe

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Henderson (Tr)	52	4	0	0	1
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	0	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	0	3
Maverick Baranowski	48	4	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jah Joyner	18	8	8	2	0
Danny Striggow	42	6	6	2	0
Kyler Baugh	39	5	3	3	3
Jalen Logan-Redding	29	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Justin Walley	38	2	0	8
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	3