Buffalo at Minnesota - 2025 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo   Buffalo Bulls at Minnesota Golden Gophers  Minnesota logo
Thursday, August 28th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Minnesota -16.5 (45.5) (-900)  Open: -16.5 | 45.5
Minnesota 23 - Buffalo: 10

 
Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
Our Line: Minnesota -12  (SP+ MINN -9)
Projected Score: BUFF: 17 - MINN: 29 (46)
MINN Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
BUFF Travel: 730 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Buffalo at Minnesota+16.545.5L 10 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.048.0W 45 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-23.548.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy-5.543.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+3.051.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.553.5W 31 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.547.5W 28 - 21ON
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-10.048.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green+2.544.5W 28 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan+2.544.5L 19 - 38ON
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)+2.538.5L 20 - 37ON
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio+7.044.5L 26 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Minnesota vs Buffalo-16.545.5W 23 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 Minnesota vs Northwestern State-43.050.5W 66 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Minnesota at California-3.041.5L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Minnesota vs Rutgers-3.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 10/4 Minnesota at Ohio State+23.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Minnesota vs Purdue-7.549.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 10/17 Minnesota vs Nebraska+7.047.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/25 Minnesota at Iowa+7.539.5L 3 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Minnesota vs Michigan State-4.544.5W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/14 Minnesota at Oregon+26.545.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Minnesota vs Northwestern+4.041.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Minnesota vs Wisconsin+2.538.5W 17 - 7UY
Fri 12/26 Minnesota vs New Mexico-1.544.5W 20 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)2438% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)23.543% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)2344% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)22.936% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MINN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense132423.239.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17
MINN Defense1322.91338.9%3.321.5 - - - - - 50%50%36%42%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1323.522.642.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
MINN Offense132330.144.9%4.380.8193071032043.744%56%44%46%16%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Minnesota1329:1318.545%90%4.535.60.81.54.41.8228.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)
MINN Defense1350% (63)36% (8) - - - - .02 (19)2.71 (22)74% (69)9% (90)0.95 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
MINN Offense1344% (111)44% (65)28.2102.93.717 (84).11 (80)2.7 (119)73% (69)10% (80)0.88 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)
MINN Defense1350% (71)42% (80) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (27)1.3 (6)33% (43)26% (16).15 (10)10% (1)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
MINN Offense1356% (25)46% (29)19.529.2204.1710.518 (68)5 (6).27 (58)1.4 (129)30% (46)31% (80).32 (76)6% (70)2 (75)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -8.77  #95
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 4.27  #121
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 13.04  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #95
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -8.77   Minnesota: 3.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.5   Minnesota: 1.5




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 3.73  #65
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 14.08  #62
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 13.12  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 928.00  #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8  #44
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5  #70
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8  #94
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #33

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Minnesota 29
Buffalo 17


Projected Total Points: 46
Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/28Minnesota23Buffalo10Minnesota -16.5Buffalo45.5Under
201708/31Minnesota17Buffalo7Minnesota -23Buffalo51.0Under
200209/21Minnesota41Buffalo17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota300 Overs
Buffalo022 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 00 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams0 - 32 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#95) BUFF at (#65) MINN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFMINN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #95 #65
SP+SP+ #95 #70
Perf GradeGrade #58 #60
OffenseOff #80 #53
DefenseDef #36 #89
Spec TeamsST #23 #1
TalentTal #109 #19
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #44
Buffalo Notes
(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report
Minnesota Notes
(11/30) CB J Nestor was incredible vs Iowa, Does he return?
(11/22) This program is awful on road. Study why
(11/16) Gophers historically bad road season, L2 at home
(11/2) Outgained & outplayed by Mich St, Def torched
(10/27) Off horrific vs Iowa, 133 yds, 24 rushing, 3 TOs.
(10/18) Def dominated Neb w/ 9 sacks, held to 213 yds
(10/18) RB D Taylor breakout game, 148 yds, 6.2 ypc
(9/14) Rush Off disappointing, Red Zone issues hurt
(9/13) RB1 D Taylor doubtful for Cal (leg inj)
(8/29) QB Lindsey, RB Taylor as good as advertised
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
Minnesota Injury Report
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffMINN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #80 #89
SuccessSuc #104 #35
ExplosiveExp #41 #19
PPAPPA #77 #16
PowerPwr #121 #64
SP+SP+ #118 #33
Pts POPPO #41 #23
HavocHav #91 #18
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #111 #82
Run SuccessRSuc #115 #8
Run ExplRExp #17 #50
PPAExp #96 #19
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLY #117 #22
Stuff RateStuff #96 #73
TackleTak -  #86
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #116 #95
Pass SuccessPSuc #70 #80
Pass ExplPExl #80 #6
PPAExp #47 #27
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #58 #93
F7 HavocF7 #84 #90
DB HavocDB #89 #1
Minnesota on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatMINN OffBUFF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #53 #36
SuccessSuc #39 #82
ExplosiveExp #122 #97
PPAPPA #64 #72
PowerPwr #62 #63
SP+SP+ #94 #70
Pts POPPO #27 #74
HavocHav #71 #33
Minnesota Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffBUFF Def
Run GameRun #66 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #71
Run ExplRExp #113 #45
PPAExp #80 #47
Run BlockR Blk #41 -
OL YdsOLY #119 #68
Stuff RateStuff #91 #64
TackleTak -  #13
Minnesota Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatMINN OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePass #57 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #29 #97
Pass ExplPExl #129 #97
PPAExp #58 #91
Pass Block/RushP Blk #54 #19
F7 HavocF7 #80 #35
DB HavocDB #70 #38
Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Minnesota -16.5 (45.5)
Minnesota won vs Buffalo this year (23-10)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Buffalo last year (23-10)

  
BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)20635658%252017127.1
Gunnar Gray295355%228224.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson18275564.141
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
Lamar Sperling3923416.063
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)8312531.540
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nik McMillan61975316.055
Victor Snow62815813.175
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)36410311.439
Al-Jay Henderson2518117.222

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock14214511
Dion Crawford795431
Miles Greer (Tr)743313
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)706120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock14214511
Malin White559440
Junior Poyser305420
Dion Crawford795431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Solomon Brown560005
Keontez Bradley (Tr)280004

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Lindsey24638963%23821866.1
Max Shikenjanski4580%801016.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor14367044.771
Fame Ijeboi9744124.549
Grant Washington2113206.316
Cameron Davis (Tr)3511123.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lemeke Brockington46484410.524
Javon Tracy (Tr)37454612.345
Jalen Smith28419415.078
Darius Taylor3424507.240

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Danny Collins (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Baranowski1029331
Devon Williams899311
Koi Perich823102
Kerry Brown564003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith38181373
Karter Menz329742
Jaxon Howard296410
Maverick Baranowski1029331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Nestor (Tr)506006
Kerry Brown564003
Anthony Smith38181373