Purdue at Minnesota - 2025 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -7.5 (49.5) (-298) Open: -10.5
Minnesota 27 - Purdue: 20 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (16 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: Minnesota -13 (SP+ MINN -8)
Projected Score: PUR: 18 - MINN: 31 (49)
MINN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
PUR Travel: 448 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Purdue vs Ball State	-16.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Purdue vs Southern Illinois	-19.5	52.0	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Purdue vs USC	+20.5	59.5	L 17 - 33	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Purdue at Notre Dame	+24.5	51.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Purdue vs Illinois	+7.5	55.5	L 27 - 43	O	N
Sat 10/11	Purdue at Minnesota	+7.5	49.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+3.0	47.5	L 0 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/25	Purdue vs Rutgers	-2.5	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/1	Purdue at Michigan	+21.0	48.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Purdue vs Ohio State	+29.5	49.5	L 10 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Purdue at Washington	+14.5	51.5	L 13 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Purdue vs Indiana	+28.5	53.5	L 3 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Minnesota vs Buffalo	-16.5	45.5	W 23 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	Minnesota vs Northwestern State	-43.0	50.5	W 66 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Minnesota at California	-3.0	41.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Minnesota vs Rutgers	-3.5	51.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/4	Minnesota at Ohio State	+23.5	42.5	L 3 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/11	Minnesota vs Purdue	-7.5	49.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Fri 10/17	Minnesota vs Nebraska	+7.0	47.5	W 24 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Minnesota at Iowa	+7.5	39.5	L 3 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/1	Minnesota vs Michigan State	-4.5	44.5	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/14	Minnesota at Oregon	+26.5	45.5	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/22	Minnesota vs Northwestern	+4.0	41.0	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+2.5	38.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Fri 12/26	Minnesota vs New Mexico	-1.5	44.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)	18.8	42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)	31.8	49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)	23	44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)	22.9	36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	12	18.8	15.8	40.8%	3.34	1.6	15	299	116	184	4	46%	53%	42%	40%	22%	.11
MINN Defense	13	22.9	13	38.9%	3.32	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	36%	42%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	12	31.8	34.4	49.3%	4.82	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	49%	50%	12%	.39
MINN Offense	13	23	30.1	44.9%	4.38	0.8	19	307	103	204	3.7	44%	56%	44%	46%	16%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	12	26:50	14.6	31%	28%	5.5	51.8	1.6	0.4	5.2	1.8	0	26.8
Minnesota	13	29:13	18.5	45%	90%	4.5	35.6	0.8	1.5	4.4	1.8	2	28.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	12	46% (94)	42% (90)	28.8	115.5	4	9 (125)	.04 (108)	3.04 (65)	59% (126)	14% (128)	0.8 (130)
MINN Defense	13	50% (63)	36% (8)	-	-	-	-	.02 (19)	2.71 (22)	74% (69)	9% (90)	0.95 (50)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	12	53% (96)	49% (120)	-	-	-	-	.32 (134)	3.39 (120)	76% (79)	8% (109)	1.15 (124)
MINN Offense	13	44% (111)	44% (65)	28.2	102.9	3.7	17 (84)	.11 (80)	2.7 (119)	73% (69)	10% (80)	0.88 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	12	53% (40)	40% (93)	15.8	27.4	183.9	6.7	11.7	13 (116)	9 (48)	.16 (103)	1.5 (92)	32% (78)	31% (72)	.49 (14)	8% (118)	2.1 (29)
MINN Defense	13	50% (71)	42% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.15 (27)	1.3 (6)	33% (43)	26% (16)	.15 (10)	10% (1)	1.8 (20)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	12	47% (40)	50% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.48 (130)	1.6 (88)	28% (115)	41% (134)	.63 (134)	4% (125)	2.1 (90)
MINN Offense	13	56% (25)	46% (29)	19.5	29.2	204.1	7	10.5	18 (68)	5 (6)	.27 (58)	1.4 (129)	30% (46)	31% (80)	.32 (76)	6% (70)	2 (75)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -12.65 #112
Purdue's Offense Rating: 7.37 #107
Purdue's Defense Rating: 20.02 #108
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.1 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #104
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #90

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -12.65 Minnesota: 3.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -6.1 Minnesota: 1.5

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 3.73 #65
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 14.08 #62
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 13.12 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 928.00 #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #44
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #70
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #94
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #33

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 31
Purdue 18

Projected Total Points: 49

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Minnesota	27	Purdue	20	Minnesota -7.5	Purdue	49.5	Under
2023	11/11	Purdue	49	Minnesota	30	Minnesota -1.5	Purdue	48.5	Over
2022	10/01	Minnesota	10	Purdue	20	Minnesota -9.0	Purdue	53.0	Under
2021	10/02	Purdue	13	Minnesota	20	Purdue -2	Minnesota	46.0	Under
2020	11/20	Minnesota	34	Purdue	31	Purdue -2.5	Minnesota	60.5	Over
2019	09/28	Purdue	31	Minnesota	38	Purdue -2	Minnesota	57.0	Over
2018	11/10	Minnesota	41	Purdue	10	Purdue -10.5	Minnesota	58.0	Under
2017	10/07	Purdue	31	Minnesota	17	Purdue -3.5	Purdue	45.5	Over
2016	11/05	Minnesota	44	Purdue	31	Minnesota -16.5	Purdue	54.0	Over
2015	10/10	Purdue	13	Minnesota	41	Minnesota -2.5	Minnesota	47.5	Over
2014	10/18	Minnesota	39	Purdue	38	Minnesota -14.5	Purdue	0
2012	10/27	Minnesota	44	Purdue	28
2011	10/08	Purdue	45	Minnesota	17
2010	10/16	Purdue	28	Minnesota	17
2009	10/10	Minnesota	35	Purdue	20
2008	10/25	Purdue	6	Minnesota	17
2007	09/22	Minnesota	31	Purdue	45
2006	09/23	Purdue	27	Minnesota	21
2005	09/24	Minnesota	42	Purdue	35
2002	09/28	Purdue	28	Minnesota	15
2001	09/29	Minnesota	28	Purdue	35
2000	09/22	Purdue	38	Minnesota	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	12	5	6 Overs
Purdue	10	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 7	4 - 7	1 - 6	3 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 15	7 - 4	1 - 3	6 - 1

(#112) PUR at (#65) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	MINN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#112	#65
SP+SP+	#90	#70
Perf GradeGrade	#125	#60
OffenseOff	#112	#53
DefenseDef	#134	#89
Spec TeamsST	#6	#1
TalentTal	#65	#19
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#44

Purdue Notes(12/18) DC Mike Scherer fired after one season
(11/28) Lost 10 straight to finish, only 3 one score games. Woof
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
Purdue Injury Report

Minnesota Notes(11/30) CB J Nestor was incredible vs Iowa, Does he return?
(11/22) This program is awful on road. Study why
(11/16) Gophers historically bad road season, L2 at home
(11/2) Outgained & outplayed by Mich St, Def torched
(10/27) Off horrific vs Iowa, 133 yds, 24 rushing, 3 TOs.
(10/18) Def dominated Neb w/ 9 sacks, held to 213 yds
(10/18) RB D Taylor breakout game, 148 yds, 6.2 ypc
(9/14) Rush Off disappointing, Red Zone issues hurt
(9/13) RB1 D Taylor doubtful for Cal (leg inj)
(8/29) QB Lindsey, RB Taylor as good as advertised
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
Minnesota Injury Report

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	MINN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#89
SuccessSuc	#96	#35
ExplosiveExp	#117	#19
PPAPPA	#112	#16
PowerPwr	#107	#64
SP+SP+	#104	#33
Pts POPPO	#115	#23
HavocHav	#131	#18

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#103	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#8
Run ExplRExp	#130	#50
PPAExp	#108	#19
Run BlockR Blk	#110	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#73
TackleTak	-	#86

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#6
PPAExp	#103	#27
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#93
F7 HavocF7	#128	#90
DB HavocDB	#118	#1

Minnesota on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	PUR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#53	#134
SuccessSuc	#39	#129
ExplosiveExp	#122	#112
PPAPPA	#64	#134
PowerPwr	#62	#108
SP+SP+	#94	#90
Pts POPPO	#27	#134
HavocHav	#71	#125

Minnesota Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#66	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#65	#120
Run ExplRExp	#113	#124
PPAExp	#80	#134
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#119	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#106
TackleTak	-	#124

Minnesota Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#129
Pass SuccessPSuc	#29	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#129	#88
PPAExp	#58	#130
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#54	#117
F7 HavocF7	#80	#109
DB HavocDB	#70	#125

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Minnesota -7.5 (49.5)
Minnesota won vs Purdue this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Purdue last year (27-20)
Purdue beat Minnesota in 2023 (49-30)

PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)	199	338	59%	2153	9	10	6.4
Malachi Singleton (Tr)	38	64	59%	439	5	2	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	125	521	4	4.2	32
Antonio Harris	69	305	2	4.4	41
Malachi Thomas (Tr)	53	243	0	4.6	57
Ryan Browne (Tr)	66	206	4	3.1	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)	63	570	1	9.0	31
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)	34	505	4	14.9	36
E.J. Horton (Tr)	27	289	1	10.7	28
Corey Smith (Tr)	14	237	1	16.9	60

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)	110	3	0	0	5
Mani Powell (Tr)	110	12	5	3	2
Charles Correa (Tr)	77	8	3	4	2
Myles Slusher	63	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mani Powell (Tr)	110	12	5	3	2
C.J. Nunnally	42	11	5	8	1
Charles Correa (Tr)	77	8	3	4	2
Jamarrion Harkless	13	2	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Hudauri Hines	32	2	0	8
Smiley Bradford	30	5	2	6
Tony Grimes (Tr)	34	0	0	5

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drake Lindsey	246	389	63%	2382	18	6	6.1
Max Shikenjanski	4	5	80%	80	1	0	16.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	143	670	4	4.7	71
Fame Ijeboi	97	441	2	4.5	49
Grant Washington	21	132	0	6.3	16
Cameron Davis (Tr)	35	111	2	3.2	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lemeke Brockington	46	484	4	10.5	24
Javon Tracy (Tr)	37	454	6	12.3	45
Jalen Smith	28	419	4	15.0	78
Darius Taylor	34	245	0	7.2	40

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Danny Collins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maverick Baranowski	102	9	3	3	1
Devon Williams	89	9	3	1	1
Koi Perich	82	3	1	0	2
Kerry Brown	56	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Smith	38	18	13	7	3
Karter Menz	32	9	7	4	2
Jaxon Howard	29	6	4	1	0
Maverick Baranowski	102	9	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Nestor (Tr)	50	6	0	0	6
Kerry Brown	56	4	0	0	3
Anthony Smith	38	18	13	7	3