Purdue at Minnesota - 2025 Matchup Preview
Purdue logo Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden GophersMinnesota logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -7.5 (49.5) (-298)  Open: -10.5
Minnesota 27 - Purdue: 20  (Big Ten)

 
Boilermakers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (16 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Minnesota -11  (SP+ MINN -8)
Projected Score: PUR: 21 - MINN: 32 (53)
MINN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
PUR Travel: 448 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Purdue vs Ball State-16.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Purdue vs Southern Illinois-19.552.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Purdue vs USC+20.559.5L 17 - 33UY
Sat 9/20 Purdue at Notre Dame+24.551.5L 30 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Purdue vs Illinois+7.555.5L 27 - 43ON
Sat 10/11 Purdue at Minnesota+7.549.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 10/18 Purdue at Northwestern+3.047.5L 0 - 19UN
Sat 10/25 Purdue vs Rutgers-2.560.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/1 Purdue at Michigan+21.048.5L 16 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Purdue vs Ohio State+29.549.5L 10 - 34UY
Sat 11/15 Purdue at Washington+14.551.5L 13 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Purdue vs Indiana+28.553.5L 3 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Minnesota vs Buffalo-16.545.5W 23 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 Minnesota vs Northwestern State-43.050.5W 66 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Minnesota at California-3.041.5L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Minnesota vs Rutgers-3.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 10/4 Minnesota at Ohio State+23.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Minnesota vs Purdue-7.549.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 10/17 Minnesota vs Nebraska+7.047.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/25 Minnesota at Iowa+7.539.5L 3 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Minnesota vs Michigan State-4.544.5W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/14 Minnesota at Oregon+26.545.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Minnesota vs Northwestern+4.041.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Minnesota vs Wisconsin+2.538.5W 17 - 7UY
Fri 12/26 Minnesota vs New Mexico-1.544.5W 20 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#103 (.11)43% (62)18.843% (72)2.94 (69)12643% (53)2173.06 (120)#125 (.27)48% (131)31.849% (128)48% (128)4.03 (105)46.81.80.8
MINN#95 (.13)40% (100)2339% (111)2.62 (124)9541% (77)1793.79 (60)#96 (.2)45% (115)22.943% (79)47% (124)3.84 (87)24.30.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Offense1218.815.842.8%3.061.819344126217447%52%43%43%16%.11
MINN Defense1322.91345.2%3.841.2 - - - - - 46%53%43%47%18%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Defense1231.834.448.3%4.030.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%15%.27
MINN Offense132330.139.9%3.790.616274951793.641%57%39%41%16%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Purdue1228:0119.338%60%4.846.81.80.85.32027.5
Minnesota1327:0715.839%42%3.124.30.61.26.52.7230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Offense1247% (97)43% (72)31.3126.4411 (78).15 (53)2.94 (69)56% (136)10% (89)1.04 (41)
MINN Defense1346% (19)43% (79) - - - - .14 (91)2.86 (63)73% (80)13% (6)0.98 (84)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Defense1255% (125)49% (128) - - - - .18 (114)3.25 (122)78% (112)10% (68)0.86 (18)
MINN Offense1341% (126)39% (111)26.495.43.614 (88).02 (115)2.62 (124)73% (63)9% (46)0.89 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Offense1252% (37)43% (53)19.833.7217.26.51115 (86)13 (132).14 (117)1.4 (117)32% (87)36% (17).36 (50)6% (73)1.9 (97)
MINN Defense1353% (118)47% (124) - - - - - - 8 (38).25 (74)1.5 (35)30% (100)36% (129).42 (123)5% (122)2 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Defense1243% (13)48% (128) - - - - - - 4 (123).4 (123)1.6 (101)28% (126)32% (98).26 (59)6% (76)1.9 (33)
MINN Offense1357% (11)41% (77)17.928.5178.66.31017 (61)7 (34).22 (83)1.4 (120)33% (96)28% (92).2 (108)7% (114)1.8 (125)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -11.30  #114
Purdue's Offense Rating: 4.53  #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 15.83  #116
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.8  #96
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #105
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7  #94

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -11.30   Minnesota: 1.595

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -7.8   Minnesota: 0.4




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 1.595  #77
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 8.86  #68
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 11.07  #83
2025 Talent Rating: 928.00  #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8  #44
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9  #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Minnesota 32
Purdue 21


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 43
Purdue 24

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Minnesota 30
Purdue 18

Total Points: 48
Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Minnesota27Purdue20Minnesota -7.5Purdue49.5Under
202311/11Purdue49Minnesota30Minnesota -1.5Purdue48.5Over
202210/01Minnesota10Purdue20Minnesota -9.0Purdue53.0Under
202110/02Purdue13Minnesota20Purdue -2Minnesota46.0Under
202011/20Minnesota34Purdue31Purdue -2.5Minnesota60.5Over
201909/28Purdue31Minnesota38Purdue -2Minnesota57.0Over
201811/10Minnesota41Purdue10Purdue -10.5Minnesota58.0Under
201710/07Purdue31Minnesota17Purdue -3.5Purdue45.5Over
201611/05Minnesota44Purdue31Minnesota -16.5Purdue54.0Over
201510/10Purdue13Minnesota41Minnesota -2.5Minnesota47.5Over
201410/18Minnesota39Purdue38Minnesota -14.5Purdue0
201210/27Minnesota44Purdue28
201110/08Purdue45Minnesota17
201010/16Purdue28Minnesota17
200910/10Minnesota35Purdue20
200810/25Purdue6Minnesota17
200709/22Minnesota31Purdue45
200609/23Purdue27Minnesota21
200509/24Minnesota42Purdue35
200209/28Purdue28Minnesota15
200109/29Minnesota28Purdue35
200009/22Purdue38Minnesota24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota1256 Overs
Purdue1064 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 74 - 71 - 63 - 1
Road Teams7 - 157 - 41 - 36 - 1

(#114) PUR at (#77) MINN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPURMINN
Power RatePwr #114 #77
SP+SP+ #96 #70
Perf GradeGrade #125 #60
OffenseOff #113 #48
DefenseDef #130 #110
Spec TeamsST #6 #1
TalentTal #65 #19
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #44
Purdue Notes
(12/18) DC Mike Scherer fired after one season
(11/28) Lost 10 straight to finish, only 3 one score games. Woof
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
Purdue Injury Report
Minnesota Notes
(11/30) CB J Nestor was incredible vs Iowa, Does he return?
(11/22) This program is awful on road. Study why
(11/16) Gophers historically bad road season, L2 at home
(11/2) Outgained & outplayed by Mich St, Def torched
(10/27) Off horrific vs Iowa, 133 yds, 24 rushing, 3 TOs.
(10/18) Def dominated Neb w/ 9 sacks, held to 213 yds
(10/18) RB D Taylor breakout game, 148 yds, 6.2 ypc
(9/14) Rush Off disappointing, Red Zone issues hurt
(9/13) RB1 D Taylor doubtful for Cal (leg inj)
(8/29) QB Lindsey, RB Taylor as good as advertised
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
Minnesota Injury Report
Purdue on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMINN Def
Perf GradePerf #113 #110
SuccessSuc #62 #115
ExplosiveExp #75 #74
PPAPPA #103 #96
PowerPwr #94 #83
SP+SP+ #105 #44
Pts POPPO #120 #87
HavocHav #79 #31
Purdue Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #97 #104
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #79
Run ExplRExp #41 #84
PPAExp #53 #91
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #63
Stuff RateStuff #76 #54
TackleTak -  #86
Purdue Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #77 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #124
Pass ExplPExl #117 #35
PPAExp #117 #74
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #116 #98
F7 HavocF7 #89 #6
DB HavocDB #73 #122
Minnesota on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatMINN OffPUR Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #130
SuccessSuc #100 #131
ExplosiveExp #99 #49
PPAPPA #95 #125
PowerPwr #68 #116
SP+SP+ #92 #94
Pts POPPO #60 #105
HavocHav #73 #77
Minnesota Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #53 #129
Run SuccessRSuc #111 #128
Run ExplRExp #102 #18
PPAExp #115 #114
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #122
Stuff RateStuff #95 #81
TackleTak -  #125
Minnesota Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatMINN OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #44 #122
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #128
Pass ExplPExl #120 #101
PPAExp #83 #123
Pass Block/RushP Blk #50 #116
F7 HavocF7 #46 #68
DB HavocDB #114 #76
Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 63° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Minnesota -7.5 (49.5)
Minnesota won vs Purdue this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Purdue beat Minnesota in 2023 (49-30)
Purdue beat Minnesota in 2022 (20-10)

  
PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)19933859%21539106.4
Malachi Singleton (Tr)386459%439526.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee12552144.232
Antonio Harris6930524.441
Malachi Thomas (Tr)5324304.657
Ryan Browne (Tr)6620643.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)6357019.031
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)34505414.936
E.J. Horton (Tr)27289110.728
Corey Smith (Tr)14237116.960

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Myles Slusher632103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
C.J. Nunnally4211581
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Jamarrion Harkless132340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hudauri Hines322008
Smiley Bradford305026
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Lindsey22836163%22351666.2
Max Shikenjanski4580%801016.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor11955434.771
Fame Ijeboi9744124.549
Grant Washington2113206.316
Cameron Davis (Tr)3410923.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lemeke Brockington46484410.524
Javon Tracy (Tr)35439612.545
Jalen Smith22355216.178
Darius Taylor3022207.440

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Danny Collins (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Baranowski858231
Devon Williams828311
Koi Perich773102
Kerry Brown554003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith32141171
Karter Menz278640
Jaxon Howard266410
Devon Williams828311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Nestor (Tr)476006
Kerry Brown554003
Za'Quan Bryan371013