San Diego State at New Mexico - 2025 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at New Mexico LobosNew Mexico logo
Friday, November 28th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
San Diego State -1.5 (41.5) (-105)  Open: -1.5 | 41.5
New Mexico 23 - San Diego State: 17  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 3.6 (#29)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Heavy Rain Shower Predicted
SDSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -8.5  (SP+ SDSU -6)

Projected Score: SDSU: 25 - UNM: 17 (42)
SDSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SDSU Travel: 622 miles, 1 hrs behind
Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.553.5W 38 - 20OY
Fri 10/3 New Mexico at San José State+1.558.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+14.558.5L 25 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-14.049.5W 24 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-3.061.5W 33 - 14UY
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+3.561.5W 40 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.553.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force-3.553.5W 20 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.541.5W 23 - 17UY
Fri 12/26 New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.544.5L 17 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)26.437% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)15.449% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)27.153% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)22.350% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1226.418.237.4%3.440.8193351292063.747%52%37%38%18%.12
UNM Defense1222.318.750.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1215.418.346.1%4.281 - - - - - 55%44%49%43%12%.23
UNM Offense1227.128.348.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1227:0818.536%53%9.181.80.815.42.6231
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1247% (87)37% (124)35.3128.93.713 (105).1 (84)3 (78)69% (97)12% (114)1.06 (37)
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1255% (117)49% (117) - - - - .21 (113)3.49 (130)80% (109)9% (98)0.94 (47)
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1252% (45)38% (109)19.531.3205.76.610.615 (98)8 (40).15 (107)1.5 (99)36% (125)26% (114).29 (87)6% (61)2 (77)
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1244% (17)43% (98) - - - - - - 7 (104).28 (96)1.6 (75)29% (112)38% (126).52 (126)3% (133)2.1 (79)
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 1.70  #60
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 8.16  #98
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 6.46  #29
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7  #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 1.70   New Mexico: -4.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.7   New Mexico: 0.9




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -4.28  #117
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 5.15  #117
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.61  #105
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 25
New Mexico 17


Projected Total Points: 42
New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/28New Mexico23San Diego State17San Diego State -1.5New Mexico41.5Under
202411/08San Diego State16New Mexico21San Diego State -1.5New Mexico65.5Under
202211/18New Mexico10San Diego State34San Diego State -15San Diego State36.0Over
202110/09San Diego State31New Mexico7San Diego State -19.5San Diego State42.5Under
201811/03New Mexico23San Diego State31San Diego State -12New Mexico45.5Over
201711/24San Diego State35New Mexico10San Diego State -20.5San Diego State48.5Under
201410/10New Mexico14San Diego State24San Diego State -6San Diego State0
201311/02San Diego State35New Mexico30San Diego State -17New Mexico0
201111/05San Diego State35New Mexico7
201010/23New Mexico20San Diego State30
200910/31San Diego State23New Mexico20
200810/18New Mexico70San Diego State7
200710/20San Diego State17New Mexico20
200611/25New Mexico41San Diego State14
200510/22San Diego State24New Mexico47
200410/23New Mexico19San Diego State9
200310/18San Diego State7New Mexico30
200211/09New Mexico15San Diego State8
200111/03San Diego State15New Mexico20
200011/03New Mexico16San Diego State17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico1042 Overs
San Diego State1044 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 104 - 42 - 22 - 2
Road Teams10 - 104 - 42 - 22 - 2

(#60) SDSU at (#117) UNM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUUNM
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #60 #117
SP+SP+ #43 #73
Perf GradeGrade #20 #54
OffenseOff #61 #90
DefenseDef #13 #24
Spec TeamsST #58 #61
TalentTal #95 #127
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #79
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
New Mexico Notes
(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffUNM Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #24
SuccessSuc #120 #132
ExplosiveExp #51 #68
PPAPPA #108 #132
PowerPwr #98 #105
SP+SP+ #90 #66
Pts POPPO #107 #128
HavocHav #99 #114
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #31 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #125
Run ExplRExp #37 #64
PPAExp #84 #110
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #103
Stuff RateStuff #35 #94
TackleTak -  #51
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #114 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #109 #131
Pass ExplPExl #99 #81
PPAExp #107 #132
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #47 #7
F7 HavocF7 #114 #118
DB HavocDB #61 #79
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffSDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #90 #13
SuccessSuc #10 #113
ExplosiveExp #86 #44
PPAPPA #14 #103
PowerPwr #117 #29
SP+SP+ #82 #28
Pts POPPO #79 #111
HavocHav #12 #131
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #91 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #117
Run ExplRExp #21 #47
PPAExp #1 #113
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #130
Stuff RateStuff #3 #132
TackleTak -  #53
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatUNM OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #40 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #98
Pass ExplPExl #125 #75
PPAExp #77 #96
Pass Block/RushP Blk #107 #49
F7 HavocF7 #1 #98
DB HavocDB #85 #133
Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain Shower
Temp: 60°
Rematch from Week 14
San Diego State 1.5 (41.5)
New Mexico won vs San Diego State this year (23-17)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat San Diego State last year (23-17)
New Mexico beat San Diego State in 2024 (21-16)

  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Kyle Crum142948%169125.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington (Tr)9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3227328.572
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown33518215.752
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)16190011.942
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss909445
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Trey White47117121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White47117121
Ryan Henderson219741
Niles King2910720
Owen Chambliss909445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler391036

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)21332765%248613107.6
James Laubstein111765%96205.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)11463555.654
DJ McKinney (Tr)11146474.254
James Laubstein5936316.258
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)7734954.561
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)59754312.880
Dorian Thomas (Tr)56560410.034
Damon Bankston (Tr)31397312.884
Cade Keith (Tr)20253312.745

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)1287232
Tavian Combs721103
Jon Johnson540006
Mercury Swaim527212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)5215955
Brett Karhu2911852
Gabriel Lopez146211
Mercury Swaim527212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech100008
Jon Johnson540006
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)5215955