Michigan State at Indiana - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers(#3)Indiana logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Indiana -26.5 (49.5) (-3600)  Open: -25.5
Indiana 38 - Michigan State: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 13.2 MPH
Our Line: Indiana -29.5  (SP+ IND -35)

Projected Score: MSU: 13 - IND: 43 (56)
IND Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
MSU Travel: 267 miles
Hoosiers (14 - 0) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (11 - 1)
Avg Score : 42 - 10 (49 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13.7 - 0.3 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Indiana's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Indiana vs Old Dominion-23.554.5W 27 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Indiana vs Kennesaw State-35.551.5W 56 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Indiana vs Indiana State-47.560.0W 73 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Indiana vs Illinois-7.051.5W 63 - 10OY
Sat 9/27 Indiana at Iowa-9.547.5W 20 - 15UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Indiana at Oregon+7.051.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 Indiana vs Michigan State-26.549.5W 38 - 13ON
Sat 10/25 Indiana vs UCLA-26.553.5W 56 - 6OY
Sat 11/1 Indiana at Maryland-21.050.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/8 Indiana at Penn State-13.550.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 11/15 Indiana vs Wisconsin-28.543.5W 31 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Indiana at Purdue-28.553.5W 56 - 3OY
Sat 12/6 Indiana vs Ohio State+5.548.5W 13 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Indiana vs Alabama-7.546.5W 38 - 3UY
Fri 1/9 Indiana vs Oregon-4.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Indiana's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#98 (.12)42% (77)24.642% (83)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#103 (.21)45% (116)29.947% (123)44% (101)3.91 (95)44.910.8
IND#10 (.33)53% (2)41.650% (11)3.27 (17)21056% (3)2344.98 (4)#12 (.04)35% (8)10.332% (4)38% (33)1.82 (1)26.40.61.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
IND#6 (.33)52% (2)50% (13)3.09 (55)16656% (2)2615.03 (1)#19 (.09)38% (24)35% (7)40% (70)3.66 (55)43.90.71.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1224.621.641.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12
IND Defense1410.38.434.5%1.821.8 - - - - - 43%54%32%38%24%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1229.932.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
IND Offense1441.649.152.7%4.980.6234442102345.754%44%50%56%11%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Indiana1430:5822.955%50%3.526.40.61.882.8331.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1247% (91)42% (83)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (95)2.56 (128)65% (112)13% (132)0.95 (72)
IND Defense1443% (10)32% (4) - - - - -.1 (4)2.17 (3)58% (6)17% (1)1.02 (96)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1249% (52)47% (123) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (65)81% (126)9% (97)0.91 (44)
IND Offense1454% (34)50% (11)36.8210.35.729 (40).21 (23)3.27 (17)69% (90)6% (6)0.88 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1251% (51)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (73)1.4 (112)30% (55)30% (78).37 (43)5% (24)2.1 (49)
IND Defense1454% (126)38% (33) - - - - - - 17 (12).22 (57)1.6 (80)37% (9)26% (19).22 (42)7% (20)2.1 (92)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1249% (84)44% (101) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (102)1.5 (33)29% (110)30% (76).33 (86)5% (115)2.1 (88)
IND Offense1444% (102)56% (3)17.524.5233.69.513.438 (1)7 (7).49 (5)1.5 (103)23% (1)40% (3).57 (7)5% (29)2.1 (52)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 8.61  #46
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.17  #45
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 5.56  #50
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3  #84
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #74
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #85

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 8.61   Indiana: 32.285

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.3   Indiana: 31.5




Indiana's Power Ratings
Indiana's Power Rating: 32.285  #2
Indiana's Offense Rating: 29.34  #3
Indiana's Defense Rating: -8.83  #8
2025 Talent Rating: 726.00  #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 8  #44
Indiana's 2025 Expected Record: 13.7 - 0.3
Indiana's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.5  #2
Indiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7  #3
Indiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.6  #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Indiana 43
Michigan State 13


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Indiana 48
Michigan State 18

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Indiana 39
Michigan State 17

Total Points: 56
Indiana Scoring
Offense: 41.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 49.1
Defense: 10.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.4

Indiana's 2025 Record
Record: 14 - 0
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Indiana38Michigan State13Indiana -26.5Michigan State49.5Over
202411/02Michigan State10Indiana47Indiana -7.5Indiana53.5Over
202311/18Indiana21Michigan State24Indiana -3.5Michigan State47.5Under
202211/19Michigan State31Indiana39Michigan State -12Indiana47.0Over
202110/16Indiana15Michigan State20Michigan State -3.5Michigan State48.5Under
202011/14Michigan State0Indiana24Indiana -7.5Indiana53.0Under
201909/28Michigan State40Indiana31Michigan State -14Indiana43.5Over
201809/22Indiana21Michigan State35Michigan State -5.5Michigan State51.0Over
201710/21Michigan State17Indiana9Michigan State -6.5Michigan State47.5Under
201610/01Indiana24Michigan State21Michigan State -8Indiana52.5Under
201510/24Michigan State52Indiana26Michigan State -17Michigan State59.0Over
201410/18Indiana17Michigan State56Michigan State -14Michigan State0
201310/12Michigan State42Indiana28Michigan State -7.5Michigan State0
201210/06Indiana27Michigan State31
201111/19Michigan State55Indiana3
200809/27Indiana29Michigan State42
200710/13Michigan State52Indiana27
200610/28Indiana46Michigan State21
200510/29Michigan State46Indiana15
200409/25Indiana20Michigan State30
200310/04Michigan State31Indiana3
200211/09Indiana21Michigan State56
200111/10Michigan State28Indiana37
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Indiana756 Overs
Michigan State1685 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 124 - 93 - 41 - 5
Road Teams12 - 119 - 45 - 14 - 3

(#46) MSU at (#2) IND
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUIND
Power RatePwr #46 #2
SP+SP+ #84 #2
Perf GradeGrade #94 #1
OffenseOff #65 #1
DefenseDef #107 #2
Spec TeamsST #134 #9
TalentTal #30 #69
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #44
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Indiana Notes
(12/6) WR1 Omar Cooper went out of B1G title game w/ inj.
(11/28) Run game mauled Purdue, 330+yds over 10 ypc
(11/9) Mortal vs PSU, even game. Pass Def leaky?
(10/16) Cig now top 5 paid coach in CFB after PSU threat
(10/12) Staff hit #'s on portals is incredible. Scouting +
(10/11) Dominated OU, Def held to 276, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/22) DL is a terror, constant pressure with 4 rushing
(9/20) Beat Ill 63-10, 500+ yds even split. Def great
(9/20) Hoosiers real deal, B1G & CFP contenders
(9/15) RB1 Leo Beebe Jr out for season (knee)
(9/12) The cupcake murder tour is finally over.
(8/30) 500 yds but 27 pts vs ODU? Run Def issues
Indiana Injury Report
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffIND Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #2
SuccessSuc #77 #8
ExplosiveExp #96 #117
PPAPPA #98 #12
PowerPwr #45 #8
SP+SP+ #74 #2
Pts POPPO #64 #1
HavocHav #115 #1
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffIND Def
Run GameRun #62 #4
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #4
Run ExplRExp #72 #96
PPAExp #95 #4
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #128 #3
Stuff RateStuff #133 #1
TackleTak -  #6
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffIND Def
Pass GamePass #91 #7
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #33
Pass ExplPExl #112 #80
PPAExp #73 #57
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #121 #13
F7 HavocF7 #132 #1
DB HavocDB #24 #20
Indiana on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatIND OffMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #1 #107
SuccessSuc #2 #116
ExplosiveExp #121 #26
PPAPPA #10 #103
PowerPwr #3 #50
SP+SP+ #3 #85
Pts POPPO #4 #95
HavocHav #8 #111
Indiana Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
IND OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #6 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #11 #123
Run ExplRExp #108 #44
PPAExp #23 #101
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLY #17 #65
Stuff RateStuff #25 #104
TackleTak -  #51
Indiana Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatIND OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #17 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #101
Pass ExplPExl #103 #33
PPAExp #5 #102
Pass Block/RushP Blk #16 #104
F7 HavocF7 #6 #97
DB HavocDB #29 #115
Program Comparison
IND 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77° - Wind: 13 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Indiana -26.5 (49.5)
Indiana won vs Michigan State this year (38-13)

Previous Matchups
Indiana beat Michigan State last year (47-10)
Michigan State beat Indiana in 2023 (24-21)
Indiana beat Michigan State in 2022 (39-31)

  
MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Ru'Quan Buckley132210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012

IND's OC Mike Shanahan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza (Tr)22631672%29803369.4
Alberto Mendoza182475%2865111.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Roman Hemby (Tr)17691865.282
Kaelon Black14379875.640
Khobie Martin6945366.636
Fernando Mendoza (Tr)6924063.520
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Omar Cooper Jr.598281114.058
Elijah Sarratt506631213.349
Charlie Becker26515219.853
E.J. Williams34416512.262

View Indiana's Full Roster

IND's DC Bryant Haines (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rolijah Hardy8713824
Louis Moore (Tr)763001
Aiden Fisher757350
Isaiah Jones6613721
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rolijah Hardy8713824
Isaiah Jones6613721
Tyrique Tucker3111621
Stephen Daley (Tr)3519650
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Ponds464007
Amare Ferrell432006
Devan Boykin (Tr)483045