Indiana at Penn State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Indiana logo (#2)Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Indiana -13.5 (50.5) (-600)  Open: -17.0 | 53.5
Indiana 27 - Penn State: 24  (Big Ten)

 
Hoosiers (13 - 0) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Curt Cignetti (11 - 1)
Avg Score : 42 - 11 (38 - 14 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 0 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
IND 2nd straight Road Game
IND is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Indiana -9.5  (SP+ IND -15.5)

Projected Score: IND: 31 - PSU: 21 (52)
IND Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
IND Travel: 472 miles
Nittany Lions (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#74)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Indiana's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Indiana vs Old Dominion-23.554.5W 27 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Indiana vs Kennesaw State-35.551.5W 56 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Indiana vs Indiana State-47.560.0W 73 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Indiana vs Illinois-7.051.5W 63 - 10OY
Sat 9/27 Indiana at Iowa-9.547.5W 20 - 15UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Indiana at Oregon+7.051.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 Indiana vs Michigan State-26.549.5W 38 - 13ON
Sat 10/25 Indiana vs UCLA-26.553.5W 56 - 6OY
Sat 11/1 Indiana at Maryland-21.050.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/8 Indiana at Penn State-13.550.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 11/15 Indiana vs Wisconsin-28.543.5W 31 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Indiana at Purdue-28.553.5W 56 - 3OY
Sat 12/6 Indiana vs Ohio State+5.548.5W 13 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Indiana's Schedule
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-7.048.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7.545.5W 37 - 10OY
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-14.555.5W 40 - 36ON
Sat 12/27 Penn State vs Clemson+3.048.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IND#12 (.33)53% (2)41.950% (11)3.27 (17)22656% (3)2524.98 (4)#11 (.04)35% (8)10.832% (5)38% (32)1.82 (1)28.50.61.9
PSU#30 (.25)48% (20)31.848% (24)3.14 (33)17847% (29)1824.46 (24)#55 (.13)42% (69)21.444% (93)40% (51)3.44 (48)37.50.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
IND#6 (.33)52% (2)50% (13)3.09 (55)16656% (2)2615.03 (1)#19 (.09)38% (24)35% (7)40% (70)3.66 (55)43.90.71.8
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IND Offense1341.937.652.7%4.980.6254782262525.754%44%50%56%11%.33
PSU Defense1221.415.141.8%3.441.1 - - - - - 53%46%44%40%15%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
IND Defense1310.814.434.5%1.821.9 - - - - - 43%54%32%38%24%.04
PSU Offense1231.83447.6%4.460.8203591781824.956%42%48%47%13%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Indiana1333:2124.655%50%3.828.50.61.98.63331.3
Penn State1229:1219.642%63%4.237.50.81.16.22.3232.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IND Offense1354% (35)50% (11)39.6226.55.729 (40).21 (27)3.27 (17)69% (93)6% (6)0.88 (108)
PSU Defense1253% (109)44% (93) - - - - .12 (76)2.95 (82)68% (44)11% (33)0.95 (67)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
IND Defense1343% (9)32% (5) - - - - -.1 (4)2.17 (3)58% (7)17% (1)1.02 (96)
PSU Offense1256% (24)48% (24)36.2177.54.930 (26).23 (20)3.14 (33)75% (54)9% (53)1.02 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IND Offense1344% (101)56% (3)18.826.4251.69.513.438 (1)7 (7).49 (7)1.5 (103)23% (1)40% (3).57 (8)5% (30)2.1 (53)
PSU Defense1246% (33)40% (51) - - - - - - 6 (55).22 (58)1.4 (22)29% (105)28% (42).26 (57)5% (120)1.9 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
IND Defense1354% (126)38% (32) - - - - - - 17 (12).22 (57)1.6 (83)37% (12)26% (18).22 (43)7% (22)2.1 (89)
PSU Offense1242% (115)47% (29)16.925.3181.67.210.714 (86)7 (60).29 (54)1.4 (125)25% (9)32% (45).34 (54)5% (22)1.9 (100)

Indiana's Power Ratings
Indiana's Power Rating: 28.07  #2
Indiana's Offense Rating: 29.34  #3
Indiana's Defense Rating: -8.83  #8
2025 Talent Rating: 726.00  #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 8%  #44
Indiana's 2025 Expected Record: 13.0 - 0.0
Indiana's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.5  #2
Indiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7  #3
Indiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.6  #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Indiana: 28.07   Penn State: 20.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Indiana: 31.5   Penn State: 15.8




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.21  #18
Penn State's Offense Rating: 19.85  #19
Penn State's Defense Rating: 0.23  #30
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8  #20
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.9  #21
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #31

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Indiana Scoring
Offense: 41.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.6
Defense: 10.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 14.4

Indiana's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 0
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Indiana 31
Penn State 21


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Indiana 35
Penn State 18

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Indiana 29
Penn State 23

Total Points: 52
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 21.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Penn State24Indiana27Indiana -13.5Penn State50.5Over
202310/28Penn State33Indiana24Penn State -31Indiana45.0Over
202211/05Indiana14Penn State45Penn State -13.5Penn State50.0Over
202110/02Penn State24Indiana0Penn State -12Penn State54.5Under
202010/24Indiana36Penn State35Penn State -7Indiana62.0Over
201911/16Penn State34Indiana27Penn State -15Indiana55.0Over
201810/20Indiana28Penn State33Penn State -14Indiana56.5Over
201709/30Penn State45Indiana14Penn State -19.5Penn State63.0Under
201611/12Indiana31Penn State45Penn State -6.5Penn State60.0Over
201510/10Penn State29Indiana7Penn State -8Penn State52.0Under
201411/08Indiana7Penn State13Penn State -4Penn State0
201310/05Indiana44Penn State24Penn State -4Indiana0
201211/17Penn State45Indiana22
201110/01Indiana10Penn State16
201011/20Indiana24Penn State41
200911/14Penn State31Indiana20
200811/15Penn State34Indiana7
200710/20Indiana31Penn State36
200411/13Indiana18Penn State22
200311/15Penn State52Indiana7
200111/17Penn State28Indiana14
200010/27Indiana24Penn State27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State1977 Overs
Indiana353 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 107 - 53 - 24 - 3
Road Teams10 - 125 - 73 - 42 - 3

(#2) IND at (#18) PSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatINDPSU
Power RatePwr #2 #18
SP+SP+ #2 #20
Perf GradeGrade #1 #23
OffenseOff #1 #35
DefenseDef #2 #32
Spec TeamsST #9 #5
TalentTal #69 #4
Blue ChipsBC% #44 #10
Indiana Notes
(12/6) WR1 Omar Cooper went out of B1G title game w/ inj.
(11/28) Run game mauled Purdue, 330+yds over 10 ypc
(11/9) Mortal vs PSU, even game. Pass Def leaky?
(10/16) Cig now top 5 paid coach in CFB after PSU threat
(10/12) Staff hit #'s on portals is incredible. Scouting +
(10/11) Dominated OU, Def held to 276, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/22) DL is a terror, constant pressure with 4 rushing
(9/20) Beat Ill 63-10, 500+ yds even split. Def great
(9/20) Hoosiers real deal, B1G & CFP contenders
(9/15) RB1 Leo Beebe Jr out for season (knee)
(9/12) The cupcake murder tour is finally over.
(8/30) 500 yds but 27 pts vs ODU? Run Def issues
Indiana Injury Report
Penn State Notes
(12/5) Hired ISU HC Matt Campbell, bailed out PSU & AD
(12/4) Still no coach, crootin a disaster. Program a mess.
(11/22) Still fighting, killed Nebraska. 5-6, could bowl
(11/9) Credit due, even with IU. Still fighting
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
Penn State Injury Report
Indiana on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
IND OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #1 #32
SuccessSuc #2 #69
ExplosiveExp #121 #17
PPAPPA #12 #55
PowerPwr #3 #30
SP+SP+ #3 #31
Pts POPPO #4 #48
HavocHav #9 #72
Indiana Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
IND OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #6 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #11 #93
Run ExplRExp #108 #67
PPAExp #27 #76
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLY #17 #82
Stuff RateStuff #26 #70
TackleTak -  #53
Indiana Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
IND OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #17 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #51
Pass ExplPExl #103 #22
PPAExp #7 #58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #16 #17
F7 HavocF7 #6 #33
DB HavocDB #30 #120
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffIND Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #2
SuccessSuc #20 #8
ExplosiveExp #108 #117
PPAPPA #30 #11
PowerPwr #19 #8
SP+SP+ #21 #2
Pts POPPO #24 #1
HavocHav #39 #1
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffIND Def
Run GameRun #23 #4
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #5
Run ExplRExp #52 #96
PPAExp #20 #4
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #33 #3
Stuff RateStuff #25 #1
TackleTak -  #6
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffIND Def
Pass GamePass #89 #7
Pass SuccessPSuc #29 #32
Pass ExplPExl #125 #83
PPAExp #54 #57
Pass Block/RushP Blk #11 #13
F7 HavocF7 #53 #1
DB HavocDB #22 #22
Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

IND 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
Indiana 13.5 (50.5)
Indiana won at Penn State this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Indiana in 2023 (33-24)
Penn State beat Indiana in 2022 (45-14)

  
IND's OC Mike Shanahan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza (Tr)22631672%29803369.4
Alberto Mendoza182475%2865111.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Roman Hemby (Tr)17691865.282
Kaelon Black14379875.640
Khobie Martin6945366.636
Fernando Mendoza (Tr)6924063.520
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Omar Cooper Jr.598281114.058
Elijah Sarratt506631213.349
Charlie Becker26515219.853
E.J. Williams34416512.262

View Indiana's Full Roster

IND's DC Bryant Haines (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rolijah Hardy8713824
Louis Moore (Tr)763001
Aiden Fisher757350
Isaiah Jones6613721
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rolijah Hardy8713824
Isaiah Jones6613721
Tyrique Tucker3111621
Stephen Daley (Tr)3519650
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Ponds464007
Amare Ferrell432006
Devan Boykin (Tr)483045

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Ethan Grunkemeyer10014469%1079647.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen2101303156.267
Nicholas Singleton123549134.559
Drew Allar3617214.827
Trebor Pena (Tr)116906.316
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)44452110.343
Devonte Ross (Tr)28417514.975
Kyron Ware-Hudson23288212.531
Luke Reynolds2422909.522

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)9610330
Zakee Wheatley742031
Dominic DeLuca636233
King Mack (Tr)561113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton3810683
Zane Durant255412
Amare Campbell (Tr)9610330
Tony Rojas255221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II180003
Daryus Dixson222103
Dominic DeLuca636233