Missouri State at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview

Missouri State Bears at USC Trojans(#16)

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
USC -34.5 (59.5) (0) Open: -34.5 | 59.5
USC 73 - Missouri State: 13

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Our Line: USC -33 (SP+ USC -26)
Projected Score: MOST: 13 - USC: 46 (59)
USC Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
MOST Travel: 1418 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
MOST Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	USC vs Missouri State	-34.5	59.5	W 73 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-29.0	61.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-20.5	59.5	W 33 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-18.5	55.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	-6.5	62.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	-3.0	58.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+10.5	60.5	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	-4.5	59.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/7	USC vs Northwestern	-14.5	54.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-6.5	48.5	W 26 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+10.5	59.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-21.0	59.0	W 29 - 10	U	N
Tue 12/30	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST	#67 (.18)	39% (105)	25.6	37% (124)	2.49 (131)	114	42% (60)	280	3.69 (69)	#113 (.23)	43% (84)	28.8	43% (72)	43% (90)	3.89 (92)	66.5	1.4	1.2
USC	#6 (.35)	50% (7)	35.8	48% (18)	3.25 (21)	161	53% (4)	274	4.72 (8)	#59 (.14)	45% (121)	23	47% (122)	43% (88)	3.37 (42)	50.4	1.1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Offense	13	25.6	22.5	39.3%	3.69	1.4	20	393	114	280	3.6	42%	56%	37%	42%	24%	.18
USC Defense	13	23	17.9	45.5%	3.37	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	47%	43%	16%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Defense	13	28.8	31.3	42.7%	3.89	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	43%	15%	.23
USC Offense	13	35.8	43	50.3%	4.72	1.1	22	435	161	274	5.4	48%	50%	48%	53%	13%	.35

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri State	13	31:20	20.5	36%	57%	7.6	66.5	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.8	0	29.5
USC	13	27:23	22.2	52%	64%	5.3	50.4	1.1	1.3	5	2.2	2	26.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Offense	13	42% (124)	37% (124)	31.7	113.7	3.6	12 (122)	.03 (113)	2.49 (131)	61% (126)	16% (135)	1.07 (29)
USC Defense	13	48% (51)	47% (122)	-	-	-	-	.11 (70)	3.27 (125)	65% (25)	11% (35)	0.79 (6)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Defense	13	48% (47)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.16 (102)	2.76 (48)	83% (129)	8% (119)	1.03 (102)
USC Offense	13	48% (83)	48% (18)	30	160.5	5.4	28 (16)	.21 (24)	3.25 (21)	79% (24)	7% (22)	0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Offense	13	56% (17)	42% (60)	21.3	33.5	279.7	8.4	13.1	30 (75)	11 (88)	.33 (40)	1.8 (8)	36% (128)	30% (77)	.26 (85)	8% (130)	2.2 (13)
USC Defense	13	50% (89)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (12)	.17 (38)	1.6 (76)	29% (118)	32% (100)	.28 (65)	5% (104)	2.1 (104)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Defense	13	50% (86)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.33 (108)	1.6 (71)	30% (90)	27% (33)	.33 (87)	7% (20)	2.3 (130)
USC Offense	13	50% (56)	53% (4)	20.2	30	274.5	9.2	13.6	25 (22)	8 (34)	.51 (4)	1.6 (42)	26% (10)	38% (10)	.52 (10)	6% (68)	2.2 (18)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -12.54 #121
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95 #87
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 18.49 #127
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6 #99
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #80
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -12.54 USC: 22.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -8.6 USC: 17.3

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 22.6 #13
USC's Offense Rating: 26.26 #9
USC's Defense Rating: 3.36 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
USC 46
Missouri State 13

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 33
Missouri State 27

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
USC 35
Missouri State 22

Total Points: 57

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	USC	73	Missouri State	13	USC -34.5	USC	59.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	1	1	1 Overs
Missouri State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#121) MOST at (#13) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MOST	USC
Power RatePwr	#121	#13
SP+SP+	#99	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#33
OffenseOff	#65	#18
DefenseDef	#100	#79
Spec TeamsST	#133	#122
TalentTal	#131	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#18

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

USC Notes(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#65	#79
SuccessSuc	#105	#121
ExplosiveExp	#1	#13
PPAPPA	#67	#59
PowerPwr	#87	#36
SP+SP+	#80	#35
Pts POPPO	#69	#42
HavocHav	#136	#63

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#107	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#122
Run ExplRExp	#29	#6
PPAExp	#113	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#135	#85
TackleTak	-	#26

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	#88
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#76
PPAExp	#40	#38
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#32	#84
F7 HavocF7	#135	#35
DB HavocDB	#130	#104

USC on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MOST Def
Perf GradePerf	#18	#100
SuccessSuc	#7	#84
ExplosiveExp	#37	#102
PPAPPA	#6	#113
PowerPwr	#9	#127
SP+SP+	#11	#108
Pts POPPO	#8	#92
HavocHav	#34	#82

USC Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#22	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#72
Run ExplRExp	#76	#102
PPAExp	#24	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#61
TackleTak	-	#105

USC Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#4	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#71
PPAExp	#4	#108
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#107	#66
F7 HavocF7	#22	#119
DB HavocDB	#68	#20

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 86° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 1
USC -34.5 (59.5)
USC won vs Missouri State this year (73-13)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	247	373	66%	3431	23	8	9.2
Husan Longstreet	13	15	87%	103	1	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
King Miller	131	873	7	6.7	75
Waymond Jordan	88	576	5	6.5	40
Eli Sanders (Tr)	44	258	2	5.9	20
Jayden Maiava	51	150	6	2.9	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	79	1156	11	14.6	74
Ja'Kobi Lane	49	745	4	15.2	59
Lake McRee	30	450	4	15.0	64
Tanook Hines	28	398	2	14.2	51

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desman Stephens II	80	1	0	1	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2
Christian Pierce	58	2	1	0	3
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	51	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Braylan Shelby	23	6	5	3
Kameryn Fountain	30	8	4	0
Jide Abasiri	24	4	4	2
Anthony Lucas	37	4	3	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Marcelles Williams	33	0	0	4
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)	4	0	0	4
Christian Pierce	58	2	1	3