Missouri State at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview
Missouri State logo Missouri State Bears at USC TrojansUSC logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
USC -34.5 (59.5) (0)  Open: -34.5 | 59.5
USC 73 - Missouri State: 13

 
Bears (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 15 - 40 (17 - 47 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 7.7 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: USC -46.5   (SP+ USC -41)
Projected Score: MOST: 9 - USC: 55 (64)
USC Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
MOST Travel: 1418 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Trojans (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 55 - 17 (66 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.8 - 2.2 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
 
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Missouri State at USC+34.559.5L 13 - 73ON
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+7.053.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.560.5L 10 - 28UY
Sat 9/20 Missouri State vs UT Martin-5.5
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+12
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-1.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State+6.5
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International+8
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+18.5
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP+8.5
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+1.5
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech+8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-17.555.5
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-5.5
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame-5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-5.5
Sat 11/8 USC vs Northwestern-28.5
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-14.5
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+7
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-35

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST#76 (.19)36% (121)14.731% (129)2.01 (130)6840% (92)2741.63 (131)#133 (.43)47% (113)40.344% (97)49% (117)5 (121)752.31.3
USC#3 (.6)62% (2)5565% (3)4 (2)24059% (7)3645.59 (9)#8 (-.1)36% (43)16.739% (69)35% (42)1.95 (14)80.30.72.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Offense314.71735.7%1.632.316342682742.246%54%31%40%26%.19
USC Defense316.716.535.9%1.952.3 - - - - - 34%66%39%35%22%-.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Defense340.346.546.5%51.3 - - - - - 52%45%44%49%13%.43
USC Offense3556661.7%5.590.726604240364751%48%65%59%10%.6

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri State332:511624%67%7752.31.34.31.3029.8
USC330:3625.752%100%7.380.30.72.310.34.7226.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Offense346% (96)31% (129)31.3682.20 (135)-.09 (129)2.01 (130)60% (103)20% (136)1.21 (28)
USC Defense334% (2)39% (69) - - - - .03 (58)2.82 (75)67% (53)17% (6)0.9 (59)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Defense352% (93)44% (97) - - - - .21 (110)3.24 (115)50% (19)7% (110)0.92 (67)
USC Offense351% (63)65% (3)34.3240712 (3).37 (16)4 (2)89% (16)8% (47)0.79 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Offense354% (42)40% (92)21.732.72748.412.75 (54)6 (132).44 (36)2.2 (3)41% (132)35% (50).4 (55)6% (86)2.3 (28)
USC Defense366% (135)35% (42) - - - - - - 6 (2)-.18 (8)1.7 (112)38% (18)28% (65).03 (23)5% (80)2.4 (119)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Defense345% (37)49% (117) - - - - - - 2 (56).67 (133)1.9 (123)29% (108)32% (86).66 (128)6% (62)2.8 (132)
USC Offense348% (74)59% (7)20.328.336412.917.97 (23)0 (1).91 (2)2 (10)20% (7)38% (32).69 (18)3% (26)2.4 (19)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -15.03 #116
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 4.83 #106
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 19.86 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #129
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #106
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -15.03   USC: 28.345

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -21.2   USC: 19.8




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 28.345 #9
USC's Offense Rating: 29.19 #6
USC's Defense Rating: -4.40 #10
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.8 - 2.2
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.8 #9
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 40.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 46.5

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
USC 55
Missouri State 9


Total Points: 64

USC Scoring
Offense: 55 PPG
Offense at Home: 66
Defense: 16.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.5

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30USC73Missouri State13USCUSC -34.5USC59.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC111 Overs
Missouri State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#116) Missouri State Info
Power Rating: -15.03 #116
Offense Rating: 4.83 #106
Defense Rating: 19.86 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #129
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #135
Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.63 PPO
Awful Run Success 31%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Missouri State Notes
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
(3/26) Def limited, lots of shootouts LY. Some exp
(3/26) HC Beard in his 3rd, improved to 8-4 LY.
(3/26) Passing offense was 2nd in FCS 39 PPG LY
(3/26) Bears were a middling FCS program, why FBS?

Missouri State Highlights
Missouri State offense is explosive (#2)

Missouri State Deficiencies
Missouri State has a really bad Offense
Missouri State has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Missouri State Can Not Run the Ball (#132)
Missouri State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Missouri State offense is really bad (#121)
Missouri State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#135)
Missouri State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#131)
Missouri State run game is really bad (#129)
Missouri State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Missouri State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Missouri State has a bad defense (#113)
Missouri State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#112)
Missouri State Does Not Stuff Runs (#123)
Missouri State has a bad defensive line (#115)
Missouri State has a bad red zone defense (#121)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSCMOST
OverallOver#7#103
OffenseOff#11#102
DefenseDef#11#89
Special TeamsST#30#102
PassingPass#30#70
RushingRush#23#104
Run BlockRBLK#45#116
Pass BlockPBLK#18#80
Route RunningWR Rt#4#63
TacklingTkl#11#113
Run DefenseR Def#35#73
Pass Rush DefPRush#41#106
Coverage DefCov#1#75

Rematch from Week 1
USC -34.5 (59.5)
USC won vs Missouri State this year (73-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MOST | USC
Depth Chart: MOST | USC
Rosters: MOST | USC
(#9) USC Info
Power Rating: 28.345 #9
Offense Rating: 29.19 #6
Defense Rating: -4.40 #10
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.8 #9
Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35
Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
Expected Record: 9.8 - 2.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 62%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.59 PPO
Great Run Success 65%
Great Pass Success 59%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 1.95 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 35%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

USC Notes
(8/22) QB Maiava good at times, but is he a baller?
(8/21) OG DJ Winfield ruled ineligible, blow to OL
(6/5) WR Lemon/Lane a top duo in CFB, 2 portal adds
(6/5) Def lost a lot. 7 Portal adds, 5 DB, 2 DL.
(6/5) New OC Huard (USC QBs), Riley still calling plays
(6/5) F7 very talented but not very productive so far
(6/5) DBs should be much better with 5 portal adds
(5/23) Safeties Ramsey & Fitzgerald a strong duo
(5/13) Caden Chittenden (UNLV) top kicker portal add
(4/4) JUCO RB Waymond Jordan looks great early

USC Highlights
USC in Undefeated
USC is Undefeated at Home
USC is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

USC has Really Good Running Game (#13)
USC offense is efficent (#2)
USC has a top Offensive Line (#2)
USC offense is good in red zone (#9)
USC offense is good on 3rd downs
USC does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#6)

USC Defense Sacks the QB a lot

USC defense is really good in red zone (#14)
USC Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#22)
USC Front 7 is disruptive (#6)
USC has a great TO Margin (#28)
USC defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#2)

USC Deficiencies
USC Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
USC gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#114)


  
Missouri State's OC Nick Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark609265%781568.5
Cole Feuerbacher44100%12003.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)4214303.423
Ramone Green Jr.103403.412
Jmariyae Robinson121021.021
Reggie Branch42005.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ramone Green Jr.9164118.257
Jmariyae Robinson9164118.252
Alred Luke10129112.927
Tristian Gardner7104114.933

View Missouri State's Full Roster
Missouri State's DC L.D. Scott
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maguire Neal170001
Thomas Anderson150001
Christian Ford (Tr)150000
Jared Lloyd142100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mitchell Toney93211
Caleb Dietlin41100
Jared Lloyd142100
Maguire Neal170001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)80003
Davon Townley Jr.40002
Mitchell Toney93211

USC's OC Luke Huard
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava487069%9896014.1
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Waymond Jordan3928637.336
Eli Sanders (Tr)2316027.020
King Miller11152213.875
Husan Longstreet96026.717
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon16311219.474
Ja'Kobi Lane9239126.659
Lake McRee7173124.764
Eli Sanders (Tr)488122.073

View USC's Full Roster
USC's DC D'Anton Lynn
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eric Gentry215300
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)151001
Christian Pierce112101
Desman Stephens II110000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eric Gentry215300
Kameryn Fountain65300
Braylan Shelby94210
Anthony Lucas52210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)30002
Devan Thompkins52111
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)151001