Missouri State at Middle Tennessee Game Matchup
Missouri State logo Missouri State Bears at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee logo
Wednesday, October 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" - Murfreesboro, TN

 
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 34 - 42 (34 - 42 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 7.3 (#124)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
MOST coming off BYE
MTSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -3.5   (SP+ MTSU -1)
Projected Score: MOST: 31 - MTSU: 34 (64)
MTSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 395 miles
Blue Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#78)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Missouri State at USC+32.50.0
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+3.5
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+4
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee+3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State+2
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International+1
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+21
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP+2
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+0
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-6
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+27.5
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+2.5
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall-2
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State-0.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+3.5
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State-4
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+0
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+8.5
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-2
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+1.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 11
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 11
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%340%000%000%420%0%0000
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)18.138% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)34.350% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Offense134340%00000000%0%0%0%0%
MTSU Defense1234.332.849.4%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%49%14%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Defense142420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
MTSU Offense1218.120.339.4%31.618352912613.241%59%38%40%19%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Middle Tennessee1230:1518.238%48%7.361.31.60.84.61.7125.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Offense10%0%000000%0%0
MTSU Defense1254% (104)50% (124) - - - - .19 (107)3.19 (97)72% (61)9% (100)0.97 (59)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
MTSU Offense1241% (123)38% (114)27.990.53.210 (122).04 (110)2.82 (104)56% (132)11% (100)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
MTSU Defense1246% (33)49% (127) - - - - - - 5 (117).47 (129)1.6 (90)27% (127)34% (109).53 (128)5% (101)2.3 (128)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
MTSU Offense1259% (11)40% (83)22.835.6261.17.311.516 (87)10 (63).19 (95)1.5 (102)32% (84)25% (123).17 (121)7% (112)1.9 (113)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -19.14 #120
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 12.14 #80
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 31.28 #136
2025 Talent Rating: 220.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 7.3
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.6 #127
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #75
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #136

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -19.14   Middle Tennessee: -15.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -17.6   Middle Tennessee: -16.4




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -15.08 #118
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 8.09 #104
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 26.85 #128
2025 Talent Rating: 436.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #125
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #130
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 34
Missouri State 31

Projected Total Points: 64
Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.3
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.8

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee000 Overs
Missouri State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#120) Missouri State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -19.14 #120
Offense Rating: 12.14 #80
Defense Rating: 31.28 #136
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.6 #127
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #136
Talent Rating: 220.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
Expected Record: 3.7 - 7.3

Team Profile






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Missouri State Notes
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
(3/26) Def limited, lots of shootouts LY. Some exp
(3/26) HC Beard in his 3rd, improved to 8-4 LY.
(3/26) Passing offense was 2nd in FCS 39 PPG LY
(3/26) Bears were a middling FCS program, why FBS?
Missouri State     Ratings Matchup     Middle Tennessee
Power #120
#118
Off #80
#104
Def #136
#128
Talent #132
#120
SP+ #127
#125
SP+ Off #75
#130
SP+ Def #136
#107

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MOST | MTSU
Depth Chart: MOST | MTSU
Rosters: MOST | MTSU
(#118) Middle Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -15.08 #118
Offense Rating: 8.09 #104
Defense Rating: 26.85 #128
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107
Talent Rating: 436.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Middle Tennessee Notes
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) QB Vattiato back, good, 3K LY. Must limit TOs
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
(3/26) Def awful LY, must trust depth, only 1 portal
(3/26) Mason good fit, year 2 for staff. Could bowl


  
Missouri State's OC Nick Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark25736970%35482669.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)4717713.815
Iverson Young85907.428
Jmariyae Robinson84735.923
Reggie Branch61803.010
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jmariyae Robinson38585415.444
James BlackStrain23353315.337
Alred Luke14194213.932
Gary Clinton65208.713

View Missouri State's Full Roster
Missouri State's DC L.D. Scott
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Todric McGee161000
Kanye Young53200
Dylan Simmons31002
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)30001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kanye Young53200
Todric McGee161000
Dylan Simmons31002
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)30001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Simmons31002
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)30001
Ryan Williams20001

Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato26941864%309216107.4
Roman Gagliano4944%41004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rickey Hunt7639325.259
Jekail Middlebrook6027324.624
Nick Vattiato867710.916
Roman Gagliano2502.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Butler30366312.261
Cam'Ron Lacy2019009.544
Jekail Middlebrook2216317.424
Gamarion Carter12123010.327

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes692010
Anthony Bynum607311
Shakai Woods424110
Brandon Buckner374350
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner374350
Anthony Bynum607311
Aidan Butts102202
Damonte Smith254231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Butts102202
Abdul Muhammad120002
Damonte Smith254231