Missouri State at Middle Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview

Missouri State Bears at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Wednesday, October 8th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Missouri State -2.5 (52.5) (-145) Open: -2.5
Missouri State 22 - Middle Tennessee: 20 (Conference USA)

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

MOST coming off BYE
MTSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Missouri State -1.5 (SP+ MOST -5.5)
Projected Score: MOST: 28 - MTSU: 26 (54)
MOST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 395 miles

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
MOST Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-14.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/6	Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin	+28.5	45.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/13	Middle Tennessee at Nevada	+9.0	50.0	W 14 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+2.5	46.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/27	Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State	+7.0	54.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State	+2.5	52.5	L 20 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Middle Tennessee at Delaware	+9.5	55.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Wed 10/29	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	+4.5	54.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-1.5	50.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/15	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+13.5	51.5	L 26 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/22	Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston	-6.5	53.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.5	52.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%	25.6	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	28.8	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)	22.4	38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)	30.9	50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Offense	1	25.6	22.5	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	32.5	49.4%	4.61	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	49%	14%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Defense	1	28.8	31.3	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	24	39.4%	3	1.6	18	352	91	261	3.2	41%	59%	38%	40%	19%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Middle Tennessee	12	30:15	18.2	38%	48%	7.3	61.3	1.6	0.8	4.6	1.7	1	25.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
MTSU Defense	12	54% (104)	50% (124)	-	-	-	-	.19 (107)	3.19 (97)	72% (61)	9% (100)	0.97 (59)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
MTSU Offense	12	41% (123)	38% (114)	27.9	90.5	3.2	10 (122)	.04 (110)	2.82 (104)	56% (132)	11% (100)	0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MTSU Defense	12	46% (33)	49% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.47 (129)	1.6 (90)	27% (127)	34% (109)	.53 (128)	5% (101)	2.3 (128)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MTSU Offense	12	59% (11)	40% (83)	22.8	35.6	261.1	7.3	11.5	16 (87)	10 (63)	.19 (95)	1.5 (102)	32% (84)	25% (123)	.17 (121)	7% (112)	1.9 (113)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 11.31 #79
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 20.81 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7 #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -9.50 Middle Tennessee: -11.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -10.7 Middle Tennessee: -16.0

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -11.79 #110
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 9.44 #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 22.02 #121
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri State 28
Middle Tennessee 26

Projected Total Points: 54

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/08	Middle Tennessee	20	Missouri State	22	Missouri State -2.5	Middle Tennessee	52.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	0	1	0 Overs
Missouri State	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#99) MOST at (#110) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MOST	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#99	#110
SP+SP+	#108	#127
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#114
OffenseOff	#67	#122
DefenseDef	#100	#72
Spec TeamsST	#135	#131
TalentTal	#131	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#101

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Notes(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#72
SuccessSuc	NR	#130
ExplosiveExp	NR	#71
PPAPPA	NR	#129
PowerPwr	#79	#121
SP+SP+	#77	#128
Pts POPPO	NR	#126
HavocHav	NR	#108

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#98	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#124
Run ExplRExp	NR	#59
PPAExp	NR	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#97
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#62
TackleTak	-	#26

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#127
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#90
PPAExp	NR	#129
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#75
F7 HavocF7	NR	#100
DB HavocDB	NR	#101

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MOST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#100
SuccessSuc	#105	NR
ExplosiveExp	#53	NR
PPAPPA	#107	NR
PowerPwr	#91	#115
SP+SP+	#110	#118
Pts POPPO	#128	NR
HavocHav	#113	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#86	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	#114	NR
Run ExplRExp	#62	NR
PPAExp	#110	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#125	NR
TackleTak	-	#107

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#52	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#102	NR
PPAExp	#95	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#128	#70
F7 HavocF7	#100	NR
DB HavocDB	#112	NR

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 68°

Rematch from Week 7
Missouri State 2.5 (52.5)
Missouri State won at Middle Tennessee this year (22-20)

Previous Matchups
Missouri State beat Middle Tennessee last year (22-20)

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	219	357	61%	2157	16	7	6.0
Roman Gagliano	78	135	58%	1011	7	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook	140	752	4	5.4	72
DJ Taylor	26	199	2	7.7	64
Roman Gagliano	38	160	2	4.2	64
Rickey Hunt	34	111	1	3.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam'Ron Lacy	38	529	3	13.9	68
Myles Butler	52	518	2	10.0	52
Nahzae Cox	40	473	5	11.8	43
Jekail Middlebrook	40	412	3	10.3	48

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Hughes	89	3	0	2	2
Anthony Bynum	63	6	3	8	4
Shakai Woods	48	7	3	3	1
Korey Smith	38	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	35	7	5	1	2
Reggie Johnson	35	10	4	7	2
Damonte Smith	33	11	3	4	2
Zeion Simpson-Smith	19	3	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
De'Arre McDonald	29	0	7
Abdul Muhammad	29	0	7
Jackson Lowe	36	2	4