Missouri State at Liberty - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 8th 2025 (1:00 PM EST)
Liberty -7.5 (51.5) (-290) Open: -6.5
Missouri State 21 - Liberty: 17 (Conference USA)

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

LIB 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Liberty -5 (SP+ LIB -2)
Projected Score: MOST: 24 - LIB: 29 (53)
LIB Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 775 miles, 1 hrs behind

Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
MOST Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Liberty's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Liberty vs Maine	-25.5	51.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-6.0	50.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/13	Liberty at Bowling Green	-6.0	51.5	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/20	Liberty vs James Madison	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/27	Liberty at Old Dominion	+14.5	53.5	L 7 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Liberty at UTEP	-1.5	46.5	W 19 - 8	U	Y
Tue 10/14	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Liberty vs Delaware	-3.5	52.5	W 59 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Liberty vs Missouri State	-7.5	51.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/15	Liberty at Florida International	-2.5	51.5	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/22	Liberty at Louisiana Tech	-1.5	45.5	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	Liberty vs Kennesaw State	+2.5	55.5	L 42 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%	25.6	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	28.8	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)	25.6	54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)	26.5	39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Offense	1	25.6	22.5	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
LIB Defense	12	26.5	27.3	39.4%	3.68	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	39%	40%	16%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Defense	1	28.8	31.3	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
LIB Offense	12	25.6	31.5	49.9%	4.21	1.3	22	400	238	161	5.7	63%	36%	54%	43%	14%	.26

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Liberty	12	28:42	22.1	45%	50%	6.7	64.4	1.3	1.3	5	1.6	0	28.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
LIB Defense	12	55% (115)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	.02 (20)	2.68 (21)	73% (62)	10% (59)	0.99 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
LIB Offense	12	63% (5)	54% (2)	41.8	238.3	5.7	28 (25)	.25 (16)	3.56 (7)	76% (47)	9% (43)	0.91 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
LIB Defense	12	45% (19)	40% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.21 (51)	1.6 (77)	32% (73)	31% (81)	.18 (17)	6% (82)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
LIB Offense	12	36% (130)	43% (60)	12.6	22.3	161.2	7.2	12.8	15 (98)	6 (10)	.27 (56)	1.5 (104)	24% (2)	36% (23)	.43 (26)	5% (36)	1.9 (107)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 11.31 #79
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 20.81 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7 #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -9.50 Liberty: -5.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -10.7 Liberty: -9.0

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -5.07 #81
Liberty's Offense Rating: 9.75 #88
Liberty's Defense Rating: 15.89 #87
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0 #102
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 29
Missouri State 24

Projected Total Points: 53

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Liberty	17	Missouri State	21	Liberty -7.5	Missouri State	51.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	0	0	0 Overs
Missouri State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#99) MOST at (#81) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MOST	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#99	#81
SP+SP+	#108	#102
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#69
OffenseOff	#67	#58
DefenseDef	#100	#79
Spec TeamsST	#135	#104
TalentTal	#131	#93
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#88

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

Liberty Notes(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#79
SuccessSuc	NR	#39
ExplosiveExp	NR	#67
PPAPPA	NR	#24
PowerPwr	#79	#87
SP+SP+	#77	#103
Pts POPPO	NR	#58
HavocHav	NR	#71

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#98	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#30
Run ExplRExp	NR	#68
PPAExp	NR	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#21
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#28
TackleTak	-	#76

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#66
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#77
PPAExp	NR	#51
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	#59
DB HavocDB	NR	#82

Liberty on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	MOST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#100
SuccessSuc	#7	NR
ExplosiveExp	#131	NR
PPAPPA	#24	NR
PowerPwr	#88	#115
SP+SP+	#86	#118
Pts POPPO	#43	NR
HavocHav	#33	NR

Liberty Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#75	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	NR
Run ExplRExp	#94	NR
PPAExp	#16	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#9	NR
TackleTak	-	#107

Liberty Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#109	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#104	NR
PPAExp	#56	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#70
F7 HavocF7	#43	NR
DB HavocDB	#36	NR

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 70° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Liberty -7.5 (51.5)
Missouri State won at Liberty this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Missouri State beat Liberty last year (21-17)

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	151	266	57%	1961	10	12	7.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)	21	41	51%	350	1	0	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)	228	1325	16	5.8	95
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	100	258	5	2.6	24
Caden Williams	56	243	0	4.3	25
Vaughn Blue	47	234	2	5.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donte Lee Jr	32	589	5	18.4	62
Jamari Person (Tr)	28	315	0	11.3	20
Julian Gray	18	218	1	12.1	72
Reese Smith	23	209	1	9.1	23

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Skylor Magee (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)	71	4	1	2	2
Joseph Carter	53	4	0	1	0
Damond Harmon	48	3	1	1	6
Christian Bodnar	44	2	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eli Hall	11	5	4	1	3
Brenton Williams	27	4	3	3	0
Christian Bodnar	44	2	2	1	2
CJ Bazile Jr.	27	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damond Harmon	48	3	1	1	6
Brylan Green	39	1	0	0	5
Amarian Williams	29	1	0	1	5