Missouri State at New Mexico State Game Matchup
Missouri State logo Missouri State Bears at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State logo
Wednesday, October 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Aggie Memorial Stadium - Las Cruces, NM

 
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 34 - 42 (34 - 42 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 7.3 (#124)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
MOST coming off BYE
Our Line: New Mexico State -2   (SP+ NMSU -2)
Projected Score: MOST: 34 - NMSU: 36 (67)
NMSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
MOST Travel: 835 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#105)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Missouri State at USC+32.50.0
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+3.5
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+4
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee+3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State+2
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International+1
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+21
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP+2
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+0
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 New Mexico State vs Bryant-5
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa-1.5
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+5
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+21.5
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State-2
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+9.5
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State-4.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+38.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+7.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%340%000%000%420%0%0000
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Offense134340%00000000%0%0%0%0%
NMSU Defense1236.334.841.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Defense142420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
NMSU Offense1221.630.539.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Offense10%0%000000%0%0
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -19.14 #120
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 12.14 #80
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 31.28 #136
2025 Talent Rating: 220.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 7.3
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.6 #127
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #75
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #136

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -19.14   New Mexico State: -16.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -17.6   New Mexico State: -16.0




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -16.24 #130
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico State 36
Missouri State 34

Projected Total Points: 67
New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State000 Overs
Missouri State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#120) Missouri State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -19.14 #120
Offense Rating: 12.14 #80
Defense Rating: 31.28 #136
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.6 #127
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #136
Talent Rating: 220.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
Expected Record: 3.7 - 7.3

Team Profile






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Missouri State Notes
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
(3/26) Def limited, lots of shootouts LY. Some exp
(3/26) HC Beard in his 3rd, improved to 8-4 LY.
(3/26) Passing offense was 2nd in FCS 39 PPG LY
(3/26) Bears were a middling FCS program, why FBS?
Missouri State     Ratings Matchup     New Mexico State
Power #120
#130
Off #80
#124
Def #136
#119
Talent #132
#131
SP+ #127
#122
SP+ Off #75
#106
SP+ Def #136
#124

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MOST | NMSU
Depth Chart: MOST | NMSU
Rosters: MOST | NMSU
(#130) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.24 #130
Offense Rating: 3.54 #124
Defense Rating: 25.02 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124
Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


New Mexico State Notes
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) QB Fife (Mont), Awad started late LY
(3/26) RB McGowan good, 2 P4 portals added
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) Def bad LY, returns some. 6 portal DL adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother


  
Missouri State's OC Nick Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark25736970%35482669.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)4717713.815
Iverson Young85907.428
Jmariyae Robinson84735.923
Reggie Branch61803.010
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jmariyae Robinson38585415.444
James BlackStrain23353315.337
Alred Luke14194213.932
Gary Clinton65208.713

View Missouri State's Full Roster
Missouri State's DC L.D. Scott
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Todric McGee161000
Kanye Young53200
Dylan Simmons31002
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)30001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kanye Young53200
Todric McGee161000
Dylan Simmons31002
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)30001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Simmons31002
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)30001
Ryan Williams20001

New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)15724664%17811327.2
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)2612414.860
Logan Fife (Tr)5212052.322
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Parker Awad6010911.825
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Tyler King (Tr)17236013.936
Gavin Harris (Tr)11173115.760

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Sone Aupiu554025
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Nicolas Sessions301003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Gabe Peterson (Tr)61100
Larry Jones III (Tr)51120
Glynn Johnson Jr20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Sone Aupiu554025
Nicolas Sessions301003