Missouri State at New Mexico State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Missouri State logo Missouri State Bears at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State logo
Wednesday, October 22nd 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Missouri State -2.5 (51.5) (-140)  Open: -2.5 | 52.5
Missouri State 24 - New Mexico State: 17  (Conference USA)

 
Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
MOST coming off BYE
Our Line: Missouri State -0.5  (SP+ MOST -6.5)

Projected Score: MOST: 25 - NMSU: 25 (50)
MOST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 835 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
 
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Missouri State at USC+34.559.5L 13 - 73ON
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+7.053.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.560.5L 10 - 28UY
Sat 9/20 Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.055.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.559.5L 22 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.552.5W 22 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.551.5W 24 - 17UY
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International-3.050.0W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+7.551.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP-6.547.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.554.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.545.0L 30 - 42ON
Thu 12/18 Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.555.5L 28 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.552.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.559.5L 9 - 42UY
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+4.044.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.552.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST#67 (.18)39% (105)25.637% (124)2.49 (131)11442% (60)2803.69 (69)#113 (.23)43% (84)28.843% (72)43% (90)3.89 (92)66.51.41.2
NMSU#124 (.05)37% (123)21.633% (135)2.13 (134)7740% (92)2503.21 (113)#41 (.11)42% (72)27.641% (54)44% (106)3.29 (36)54.421.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Offense1325.622.539.3%3.691.4203931142803.642%56%37%42%24%.18
NMSU Defense1227.617.742%3.291.9 - - - - - 50%48%41%44%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Defense1328.831.342.7%3.891.2 - - - - - 48%50%43%43%15%.23
NMSU Offense1221.623.236.7%3.21220328772502.639%59%33%40%20%.05

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri State1331:2020.536%57%7.666.51.41.24.11.8029.5
New Mexico State1230:0520.342%41%6.254.421.951.5128.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Offense1342% (124)37% (124)31.7113.73.612 (122).03 (113)2.49 (131)61% (126)16% (135)1.07 (29)
NMSU Defense1250% (60)41% (54) - - - - (15)2.99 (92)71% (69)9% (106)0.92 (46)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Defense1348% (47)43% (72) - - - - .16 (102)2.76 (48)83% (129)8% (119)1.03 (102)
NMSU Offense1239% (130)33% (135)29.777.42.69 (132)-.09 (135)2.13 (134)69% (88)11% (106)0.91 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Offense1356% (17)42% (60)21.333.5279.78.413.130 (75)11 (88).33 (40)1.8 (8)36% (128)30% (77).26 (85)8% (130)2.2 (13)
NMSU Defense1248% (64)44% (106) - - - - - - 15 (31).26 (77)1.5 (42)31% (69)27% (28).23 (47)7% (24)2.1 (103)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Defense1350% (86)43% (90) - - - - - - 8 (100).33 (108)1.6 (71)30% (90)27% (33).33 (87)7% (20)2.3 (130)
NMSU Offense1259% (7)40% (92)2339.3250.36.410.917 (86)16 (34).17 (111)1.4 (109)36% (130)27% (108).2 (106)10% (136)1.9 (100)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -12.54  #121
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95  #87
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 18.49  #127
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6  #99
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -12.54   New Mexico State: -10.82

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -8.6   New Mexico State: -15.2




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -10.82  #117
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #108
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 14.04  #105
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2  #124
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #113
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #119

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri State 25
New Mexico State 25


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico State 26
Missouri State 22

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico State 26
Missouri State 24

Total Points: 50
New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/22New Mexico State17Missouri State24Missouri State -2.5Missouri State51.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State000 Overs
Missouri State111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#121) MOST at (#117) NMSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMOSTNMSU
Power RatePwr #121 #117
SP+SP+ #99 #124
Perf GradeGrade #92 #110
OffenseOff #65 #125
DefenseDef #100 #61
Spec TeamsST #133 #29
TalentTal #131 #132
Blue ChipsBC% #38 #101
Missouri State Notes
(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
Missouri State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffNMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #61
SuccessSuc #105 #72
ExplosiveExp #1 #46
PPAPPA #67 #41
PowerPwr #87 #105
SP+SP+ #80 #119
Pts POPPO #69 #36
HavocHav #136 #70
Missouri State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #107 #92
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #54
Run ExplRExp #29 #46
PPAExp #113 #15
Run BlockR Blk #126 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #92
Stuff RateStuff #135 #60
TackleTak -  #47
Missouri State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #28 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #60 #106
Pass ExplPExl #8 #42
PPAExp #40 #77
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #47
F7 HavocF7 #135 #106
DB HavocDB #130 #24
New Mexico State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatNMSU OffMOST Def
Perf GradePerf #125 #100
SuccessSuc #123 #84
ExplosiveExp #57 #102
PPAPPA #124 #113
PowerPwr #108 #127
SP+SP+ #113 #108
Pts POPPO #113 #92
HavocHav #133 #82
New Mexico State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffMOST Def
Run GameRun #135 #106
Run SuccessRSuc #135 #72
Run ExplRExp #88 #102
PPAExp #135 #102
Run BlockR Blk #95 -
OL YdsOLY #134 #48
Stuff RateStuff #134 #61
TackleTak -  #105
New Mexico State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatNMSU OffMOST Def
Pass GamePass #98 #62
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #90
Pass ExplPExl #109 #71
PPAExp #111 #108
Pass Block/RushP Blk #125 #66
F7 HavocF7 #106 #119
DB HavocDB #136 #20
Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 84° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 9
Missouri State 2.5 (51.5)
Missouri State won at New Mexico State this year (24-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark24737666%324428118.6
Deuce Bailey234749%335207.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)199102175.170
Ramone Green Jr.5227815.345
Deuce Bailey278113.020
Ronnel Johnson138038.038
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Alred Luke43640514.959
Jmariyae Robinson44632714.452
Tristian Gardner30465615.542
Ronnel Johnson35463213.235

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kanye Young776154
Jared Lloyd764222
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)306452
Caleb Dietlin193362
Mitchell Toney235362
Cooper Roy114220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)2110011
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)20336156%223211126.2
Adam Damante7010467%711546.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)11745033.829
Dijon Stanley (Tr)7329724.157
Isaiah Rudison4215823.836
Tyler King (Tr)81802.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel61661710.855
Tyler King (Tr)41588314.364
Gavin Harris (Tr)36514114.334
Glynn Johnson Jr27335312.440

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Tory Gethers875312
Sone Aupiu686134
Nicolas Sessions613013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)41115102
Jamall Thompson618440
Tory Gethers875312
Ta'Avili Tuitama194230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown173006
Stilton McKelvey182005