Missouri State at New Mexico State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Missouri State Bears at New Mexico State Aggies

Wednesday, October 22nd 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Missouri State -2.5 (51.5) (-140) Open: -2.5 | 52.5
Missouri State 24 - New Mexico State: 17 (Conference USA)

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

MOST coming off BYE
Our Line: Missouri State -4 (SP+ MOST -5)
Projected Score: MOST: 27 - NMSU: 23 (51)
MOST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 835 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
MOST Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	New Mexico State vs Bryant	-19.5	52.5	W 19 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/6	New Mexico State vs Tulsa	+3.0	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/13	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+10.0	42.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+16.5	53.5	L 20 - 38	O	N
Thu 10/2	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	+1.5	53.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	New Mexico State at Liberty	+10.5	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	Y
Wed 10/22	New Mexico State vs Missouri State	+2.5	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+7.5	53.5	L 16 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/8	New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State	+11.5	52.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/15	New Mexico State at Tennessee	+41.5	59.5	L 9 - 42	U	Y
Sat 11/22	New Mexico State at UTEP	+4.0	44.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/29	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	52.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%	25.6	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	28.8	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)	21.6	46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)	27.6	43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Offense	1	25.6	22.5	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	17.7	41.3%	3.7	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	43%	40%	12%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Defense	1	28.8	31.3	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	23.2	39.3%	3.8	1.9	19	322	179	143	4.4	58%	42%	46%	30%	18%	.08

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
New Mexico State	12	29:26	19.3	38%	38%	5.4	48.1	1.9	0.8	3.8	1.2	1	27

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
NMSU Defense	12	50% (55)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.18 (98)	3.17 (93)	58% (5)	7% (134)	1.04 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
NMSU Offense	12	58% (20)	46% (41)	41.3	179.3	4.4	16 (90)	.11 (81)	3.33 (21)	77% (37)	11% (103)	0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
NMSU Defense	12	50% (76)	40% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.36 (118)	1.9 (132)	31% (80)	29% (42)	.42 (107)	6% (78)	2.3 (126)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
NMSU Offense	12	42% (116)	30% (132)	11.8	26.7	143.2	5.4	12.2	12 (118)	12 (85)	.05 (128)	1.8 (17)	33% (100)	30% (87)	.13 (131)	7% (104)	1.7 (132)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -9.50 #100
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 11.31 #79
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 20.81 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7 #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -9.50 New Mexico State: -14.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -10.7 New Mexico State: -15.5

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -14.33 #128
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60 #127
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 20.76 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5 #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri State 27
New Mexico State 23

Projected Total Points: 51

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/22	New Mexico State	17	Missouri State	24	Missouri State -2.5	Missouri State	51.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	0	0	0 Overs
Missouri State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#100) MOST at (#128) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MOST	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#100	#128
SP+SP+	#108	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#112
OffenseOff	#67	#127
DefenseDef	#100	#76
Spec TeamsST	#135	#23
TalentTal	#131	#132
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#101

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

New Mexico State Notes(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#76
SuccessSuc	NR	#64
ExplosiveExp	NR	#127
PPAPPA	NR	#115
PowerPwr	#79	#115
SP+SP+	#77	#120
Pts POPPO	NR	#60
HavocHav	NR	#128

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#98	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#69
Run ExplRExp	NR	#95
PPAExp	NR	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#93
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#66
TackleTak	-	#42

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#63
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#68
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#132
PPAExp	NR	#118
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#57
F7 HavocF7	NR	#134
DB HavocDB	NR	#78

New Mexico State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MOST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#100
SuccessSuc	#106	NR
ExplosiveExp	#95	NR
PPAPPA	#119	NR
PowerPwr	#127	#116
SP+SP+	#112	#118
Pts POPPO	#82	NR
HavocHav	#112	NR

New Mexico State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#135	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	NR
Run ExplRExp	#61	NR
PPAExp	#81	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#97	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#28	NR
TackleTak	-	#107

New Mexico State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#99	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#17	NR
PPAExp	#128	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#123	#70
F7 HavocF7	#103	NR
DB HavocDB	#104	NR

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Missouri State 2.5 (51.5)
Missouri State won at New Mexico State this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Missouri State beat New Mexico State last year (24-17)

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Logan Fife (Tr)	203	361	56%	2232	11	12	6.2
Adam Damante	70	104	67%	711	5	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	117	450	3	3.8	29
Dijon Stanley (Tr)	73	297	2	4.1	57
Isaiah Rudison	42	158	2	3.8	36
Tyler King (Tr)	8	18	0	2.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donovan Faupel	61	661	7	10.8	55
Tyler King (Tr)	41	588	3	14.3	64
Gavin Harris (Tr)	36	514	1	14.3	34
Glynn Johnson Jr	27	335	3	12.4	40

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Naeten Mitchell	92	2	0	0	7
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Jamall Thompson	61	8	4	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)	41	11	5	10	2
Jamall Thompson	61	8	4	4	0
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Ta'Avili Tuitama	19	4	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Naeten Mitchell	92	2	7
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown	17	3	6
Stilton McKelvey	18	2	5