UTEP at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Missouri State -6.5 (47.5) (-258) Open: -4.5
Missouri State 38 - UTEP: 24 (Conference USA)

Miners (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (20 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MOST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Missouri State -7 (SP+ MOST -7)
Projected Score: UTEP: 22 - MOST: 29 (51)
MOST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UTEP Travel: 840 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (28 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
UTEP Players
MOST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTEP's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UTEP at Utah State	+3.5	59.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/6	UTEP vs UT Martin	-7.5	49.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/13	UTEP at Texas	+39.5	52.5	L 10 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/20	UTEP vs UL Monroe	-5.5	47.5	L 25 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	UTEP vs Louisiana Tech	+3.5	48.5	L 11 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	UTEP vs Liberty	+1.5	46.5	L 8 - 19	U	N
Wed 10/15	UTEP vs Sam Houston	-3.5	46.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	UTEP at Kennesaw State	+12.5	53.5	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/8	UTEP vs Jacksonville State	+1.5	46.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UTEP at Missouri State	+6.5	47.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/22	UTEP vs New Mexico State	-4.0	44.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	UTEP at Delaware	+4.5	55.5	L 31 - 61	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)	23.3	38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)	30.4	40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5
MOST		0%	25.6	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	28.8	0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	20.2	37%	2.81	1.6	17	321	121	200	3.3	52%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.07
MOST Defense	1	28.8	25.3	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	37.4	39.7%	3.85	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	40%	39%	18%	.13
MOST Offense	1	25.6	28.3	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTEP	12	27:57	16.7	33%	30%	5.7	50.9	1.6	1.5	7.1	2.9	2	27.1
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense	12	52% (56)	38% (118)	36.4	120.8	3.3	9 (125)	.02 (118)	2.8 (106)	59% (127)	13% (125)	0.88 (114)
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense	12	54% (103)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	.07 (40)	2.85 (44)	59% (7)	12% (18)	1.07 (102)
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense	12	47% (81)	36% (117)	18.6	30.4	200	6.6	10.8	15 (98)	12 (85)	.15 (108)	1.5 (112)	34% (111)	23% (128)	.23 (104)	7% (110)	2.2 (20)
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense	12	46% (36)	39% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (54)	1.7 (115)	34% (34)	30% (56)	.28 (59)	6% (66)	2.1 (75)
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -11.55 #107
UTEP's Offense Rating: 3.75 #123
UTEP's Defense Rating: 15.30 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.5 #129
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #111
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -11.55 Missouri State: -7.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -17.5 Missouri State: -10.7

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -7.6 #100
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 11.31 #79
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 20.81 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7 #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri State 29
UTEP 22

Projected Total Points: 51

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Missouri State	38	UTEP	24	Missouri State -6.5	Missouri State	47.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri State	1	1	1 Overs
UTEP	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#107) UTEP at (#100) MOST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTEP	MOST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#107	#100
SP+SP+	#129	#108
Perf GradeGrade	#126	#100
OffenseOff	#132	#67
DefenseDef	#102	#100
Spec TeamsST	#101	#135
TalentTal	#82	#131
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#38

UTEP Notes(10/29) Even game w/ Kenn St, St's & 2-16 3rd down killed
(10/8) This offense is pathetic. New OC Mark Cala a disaster
(9/29) QB Nelson benched, Skyler Locklear will take over
(9/28) Off is near worst in CFB. QB Nelson a disaster so far
(9/25) 20 1st Half points in 3 games vs FBS teams
(9/21) Ugly L vs ULM, Run Def mauled, Run Off shit
(9/17) Patchwork OL might be OK once in CUSA play
(9/13) Great fight at Tex, Def played hard, QB OK
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
UTEP Injury Report

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

UTEP on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	MOST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#100
SuccessSuc	#124	NR
ExplosiveExp	#125	NR
PPAPPA	#121	NR
PowerPwr	#123	#116
SP+SP+	#111	#118
Pts POPPO	#132	NR
HavocHav	#126	NR

UTEP Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#109	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	NR
Run ExplRExp	#114	NR
PPAExp	#118	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	#106	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#118	NR
TackleTak	-	#107

UTEP Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#112	NR
PPAExp	#108	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#81	#70
F7 HavocF7	#125	NR
DB HavocDB	#110	NR

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	UTEP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#102
SuccessSuc	NR	#42
ExplosiveExp	NR	#111
PPAPPA	NR	#46
PowerPwr	#79	#83
SP+SP+	#77	#127
Pts POPPO	NR	#78
HavocHav	NR	#34

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#98	#59
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#42
Run ExplRExp	NR	#102
PPAExp	NR	#40
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#44
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#34
TackleTak	-	#29

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#111
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#46
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#115
PPAExp	NR	#54
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#123
F7 HavocF7	NR	#18
DB HavocDB	NR	#66

Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Missouri State -6.5 (47.5)
Missouri State won vs UTEP this year (38-24)

Previous Matchups
Missouri State beat UTEP last year (38-24)

UTEP's OC Mark Cala (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear	117	211	56%	1418	13	11	6.7
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	104	190	55%	1163	8	9	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashten Emory	119	569	4	4.8	56
Skyler Locklear	103	396	8	3.8	63
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)	46	225	1	4.9	94
Kenny Odom	13	57	0	4.4	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Wondame Davis Jr.	25	604	6	24.2	75
Kenny Odom	62	582	6	9.4	74
Eric Willis III	27	290	2	10.7	43
Josh Schuchts	21	232	3	11.0	64

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bobby Daly (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Micah Davey (Tr)	114	8	1	3	0
Jayden Wilson (Tr)	92	8	1	6	0
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)	41	10	5	3	1
Kadarion Johnson	55	10	4	5	1
Elijah Baldwin	23	6	4	4	4
Ashaad Hall (Tr)	24	4	3	7	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Content	58	6	0	1	6
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5