Northwestern at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview
Northwestern logo Northwestern Wildcats at USC TrojansUSC logo
Friday, November 7th 2025 (9:00 PM EST)
USC -14.5 (54.5) (-650)  Open: -16.5
USC 38 - Northwestern: 17  (Big Ten)

 
Wildcats (7 - 6) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach David Braun (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (15 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#71)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
NW coming off BYE
Our Line: USC -14  (SP+ USC -11)

Projected Score: NW: 19 - USC: 33 (53)
USC Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
NW Travel: 1745 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Northwestern at Tulane+6.547.5L 3 - 23UN
Fri 9/5 Northwestern vs Western Illinois-30.548.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 9/13 Northwestern vs Oregon+25.550.5L 14 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Northwestern vs UCLA-6.045.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 10/4 Northwestern vs UL Monroe-12.543.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Northwestern at Penn State+20.546.5W 22 - 21UY
Sat 10/18 Northwestern vs Purdue-3.047.5W 19 - 0UY
Sat 10/25 Northwestern at Nebraska+7.544.5L 21 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/7 Northwestern at USC+14.554.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Northwestern vs Michigan+10.041.5L 22 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 Northwestern vs Minnesota-4.041.0W 38 - 35ON
Sat 11/29 Northwestern at Illinois+7.044.5L 13 - 20UY
Fri 12/26 Northwestern vs Central Michigan-13.543.5W 34 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-18.555.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-6.562.5L 32 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-3.058.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame+10.560.5L 24 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-4.559.5W 21 - 17UN
Fri 11/7 USC vs Northwestern-14.554.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-6.548.5W 26 - 21UN
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+10.559.5L 27 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-21.059.0W 29 - 10UN
Tue 12/30 USC vs TCU-4.556.5L 27 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)23.439% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)19.844% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)35.852% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)2344% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NW Offense1223.415.237.1%3.021.516285991863.445%54%39%36%19%.02
USC Defense132317.943.8%3.641.2 - - - - - 46%53%44%44%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NW Defense1219.82645%3.741.3 - - - - - 47%53%44%46%15%.15
USC Offense1335.84348.4%3.761.4214081382695.540%60%52%46%18%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northwestern1229:491633%50%4.838.81.51.34.81.9328
USC1328:1221.345%47%5.3461.41.23.91.5133.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NW Offense1245% (106)39% (113)29.398.63.412 (114).07 (102)2.63 (124)66% (112)11% (98)1.1 (20)
USC Defense1346% (22)44% (78) - - - - .18 (96)3.17 (92)76% (81)7% (127)1 (77)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NW Defense1247% (26)44% (80) - - - - .07 (42)2.99 (63)69% (47)8% (107)0.86 (15)
USC Offense1340% (126)52% (10)25.2138.45.519 (73).23 (21)3.49 (9)85% (6)8% (24)0.89 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NW Offense1254% (31)36% (116)17.632.7186.15.710.67 (130)11 (72).02 (132)1.3 (134)35% (119)31% (79).2 (109)8% (121)1.8 (119)
USC Defense1353% (113)44% (103) - - - - - - 10 (66).2 (49)1.3 (4)28% (122)27% (27).14 (6)7% (42)1.8 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NW Defense1253% (110)46% (117) - - - - - - 10 (66).25 (77)1.4 (13)27% (128)35% (116).28 (55)7% (33)1.8 (24)
USC Offense1360% (9)46% (26)24.138269.27.111.225 (31)12 (85).25 (74)1.5 (108)29% (24)36% (18).4 (36)10% (134)2 (74)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 2.03  #56
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 12.77  #70
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 10.74  #49
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Northwestern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 6.3
Northwestern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.8  #51
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: 2.03   USC: 17.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: 5.8   USC: 16.9




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 17.925  #26
USC's Offense Rating: 23.87  #16
USC's Defense Rating: 9.92  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9  #16
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.9  #9
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.2
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Northwestern's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
USC 33
Northwestern 19


Projected Total Points: 53
USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/07USC38Northwestern17USC -14.5USC54.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC111 Overs
Northwestern000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#56) NW at (#26) USC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNWUSC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #56 #26
SP+SP+ #51 #16
Perf GradeGrade #44 #30
OffenseOff #31 #17
DefenseDef #73 #73
Spec TeamsST #97 #124
TalentTal #41 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #18
Northwestern Notes
(11/22) Braun gets NW back to bowl. Great job & rebound
(11/16) Lost 3 straight but competitive in most. Improving
(10/19) Have now won 4 straight, 3 in B1G play. Improving
(10/19) Def shut out Purdue, Run Off great, Run Def good
(10/19) QB Stone has been JAG- though, must game control
(9/14) Good fight w/ Ducks but Off has zero expl
(9/9) Top RB Cam Porter out for the season, ouch
(8/30) Stone 4 Int vs Tulane, Run Off & Run Def awful
(7/23) QB is Stone (SMU), no depth, Lausch retired
(5/21) Can WR Wilde (FCS SDSU) bring hope?
(5/21) DL is light, but has exp and some pass rush
(5/21) CBs exp'd but avg, Safeties are good though
Northwestern Injury Report
USC Notes
(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report
Northwestern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffUSC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #31 #73
SuccessSuc #123 #94
ExplosiveExp #101 #24
PPAPPA #129 #78
PowerPwr #70 #44
SP+SP+ #90 #36
Pts POPPO #127 #49
HavocHav #118 #105
Northwestern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #53 #127
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #78
Run ExplRExp #20 #77
PPAExp #102 #96
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #92
Stuff RateStuff #129 #120
TackleTak -  #30
Northwestern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #67 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #103
Pass ExplPExl #134 #4
PPAExp #132 #49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #10 #64
F7 HavocF7 #98 #127
DB HavocDB #121 #42
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffNW Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #17 #73
SuccessSuc #11 #106
ExplosiveExp #91 #16
PPAPPA #41 #57
PowerPwr #16 #49
SP+SP+ #9 #30
Pts POPPO #85 #64
HavocHav #101 #77
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffNW Def
Run GameRun #15 #94
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #80
Run ExplRExp #106 #15
PPAExp #21 #42
Run BlockR Blk #110 -
OL YdsOLY #9 #63
Stuff RateStuff #22 #40
TackleTak -  #100
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffNW Def
Pass GamePass #21 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #26 #117
Pass ExplPExl #108 #13
PPAExp #74 #77
Pass Block/RushP Blk #99 #39
F7 HavocF7 #24 #107
DB HavocDB #134 #33
Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 66°
Rematch from Week 11
USC -14.5 (54.5)
USC won vs Northwestern this year (38-17)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Northwestern last year (38-17)

  
NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Preston Stone (Tr)22237060%240017126.5
Ryan Boe2729%17012.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Komolafe190941115.056
Joseph Himon II9948614.937
Dashun Reeder22222110.179
Robby Preckel4214903.514
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Griffin Wilde (Tr)71880812.449
Hayden Eligon Ii37521314.138
Hunter Welcing28296210.636
Ricky Ahumaraeze10200020.035

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Robert Fitzgerald1066014
Mac Uihlein894000
Braydon Brus815344
Braden Turner522012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard2610850
Michael Kilbane428481
Anto Saka134320
Braydon Brus815344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Fussell291009
Fred Davis II (Tr)221006
Ore Adeyi201005

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava26540366%371124109.2
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
King Miller15697286.275
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
Eli Sanders (Tr)4425825.920
Jayden Maiava5415762.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon7911561114.674
Ja'Kobi Lane49745415.259
Tanook Hines34561216.551
Lake McRee30450415.064

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desman Stephens II863010
Eric Gentry717312
Christian Pierce643103
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)513103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameryn Fountain3711610
Braylan Shelby276540
Jide Abasiri264420
Eric Gentry717312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)40004
DeCarlos Nicholson421104
Marcelles Williams370004