Louisiana Tech at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Louisiana Tech logo Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Missouri State BearsMissouri State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (2:00 PM EST)
Missouri State -2.5 (45.0) (-135)  Open: -3.0 | 51.5
Louisiana Tech 42 - Missouri State: 30  (Conference USA)

 
Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (19 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Rain Predicted
Wind: 13.7 MPH
MOST is playing their 6th straight game
LT is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -3  (SP+ LT -8)

Projected Score: LT: 26 - MOST: 23 (48)
MOST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
LT Travel: 324 miles
Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (28 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.550.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.549.5L 7 - 23UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.042.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/20 Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.051.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 9/27 Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.548.5W 30 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.546.5L 7 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.549.5L 27 - 28ON
Fri 10/31 Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.548.0W 55 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.557.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.043.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.545.5W 34 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.545.0W 42 - 30OY
Tue 12/30 Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.051.0W 23 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Missouri State at USC+34.559.5L 13 - 73ON
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+7.053.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.560.5L 10 - 28UY
Sat 9/20 Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.055.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.559.5L 22 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.552.5W 22 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.551.5W 24 - 17UY
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International-3.050.0W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+7.551.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP-6.547.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.554.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.545.0L 30 - 42ON
Thu 12/18 Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.555.5L 28 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LT#85 (.15)41% (93)27.343% (80)2.98 (60)18139% (103)1553.33 (107)#27 (.07)39% (30)20.840% (40)38% (38)3.05 (22)68.711.7
MOST#67 (.18)39% (105)25.637% (124)2.49 (131)11442% (60)2803.69 (69)#113 (.23)43% (84)28.843% (72)43% (90)3.89 (92)66.51.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)37% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)39% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LT Offense1327.318.840.8%3.331183371811554.858%40%43%39%14%.15
MOST Defense1328.825.342.7%3.891.2 - - - - - 48%50%43%43%15%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LT Defense1320.825.338.6%3.051.7 - - - - - 45%53%40%38%19%.07
MOST Offense1325.628.339.3%3.691.4203931142803.642%56%37%42%24%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisiana Tech1327:3518.243%50%6.868.711.75.31.4728.3
Missouri State1331:2020.536%57%7.666.51.41.24.11.8029.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LT Offense1358% (15)43% (80)37.5181.24.828 (88).16 (47)2.98 (60)75% (49)8% (42)1.05 (35)
MOST Defense1348% (47)43% (72) - - - - .16 (102)2.76 (48)83% (129)8% (119)1.03 (102)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LT Defense1345% (15)40% (40) - - - - .05 (41)2.72 (33)68% (47)9% (78)1.12 (128)
MOST Offense1342% (124)37% (124)31.7113.73.612 (122).03 (113)2.49 (131)61% (126)16% (135)1.07 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LT Offense1340% (124)39% (103)14.422.6155.46.910.87 (121)9 (34).19 (99)1.5 (70)30% (40)26% (112).23 (97)6% (54)2.3 (9)
MOST Defense1350% (86)43% (90) - - - - - - 8 (100).33 (108)1.6 (71)30% (90)27% (33).33 (87)7% (20)2.3 (130)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LT Defense1353% (121)38% (38) - - - - - - 20 (4).14 (25)1.6 (79)35% (19)32% (94).25 (56)10% (1)1.9 (46)
MOST Offense1356% (17)42% (60)21.333.5279.78.413.130 (75)11 (88).33 (40)1.8 (8)36% (128)30% (77).26 (85)8% (130)2.2 (13)

Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -9.48  #107
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 0.92  #122
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 10.40  #81
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.8  #76
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #77
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisiana Tech: -9.48   Missouri State: -8.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisiana Tech: -0.8   Missouri State: -8.6




Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -8.07  #121
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95  #87
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 18.49  #127
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6  #99
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.8
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.3

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 26
Missouri State 23


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Missouri State 28
Louisiana Tech 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Louisiana Tech 25
Missouri State 25

Total Points: 50
Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Missouri State30Louisiana Tech42Missouri State -2.5Louisiana Tech45.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri State001 Overs
Louisiana Tech110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#107) LT at (#121) MOST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLTMOST
Power RatePwr #107 #121
SP+SP+ #76 #99
Perf GradeGrade #85 #92
OffenseOff #97 #65
DefenseDef #50 #100
Spec TeamsST #49 #133
TalentTal #122 #131
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #38
Louisiana Tech Notes
(11/10) QB1 Blake Baker out for season (torn ACL)
(10/22) Criminal clock management costly vs WKU
(10/22) QB Baker torched WKU for 340 yds and 49 rushing
(10/22) Most penalized team in CUSA, Def good but leaking
(10/21) QB1 Blake Baker, JAG w/ some mobility
(10/10) Give Cumbie 2 weeks he gets routed by Kennesaw St
(10/9) Lead CFB w/ 13 TOs & 5 Def TD. Allow 14 ppg
(9/21) Shockingly good start, box score ugly vs SMiss
(9/21) Off 2-13 on 3rd down, 2.7 ypc vs S Miss and won?
(9/17) Played hard vs LSU, Def great in red zone early
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
Louisiana Tech Injury Report
Missouri State Notes
(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report
Louisiana Tech on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LT OffMOST Def
Perf GradePerf #97 #100
SuccessSuc #93 #84
ExplosiveExp #74 #102
PPAPPA #85 #113
PowerPwr #122 #127
SP+SP+ #77 #108
Pts POPPO #107 #92
HavocHav #48 #82
Louisiana Tech Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LT OffMOST Def
Run GameRun #28 #106
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #72
Run ExplRExp #35 #102
PPAExp #47 #102
Run BlockR Blk #110 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #48
Stuff RateStuff #46 #61
TackleTak -  #105
Louisiana Tech Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LT OffMOST Def
Pass GamePass #117 #62
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #90
Pass ExplPExl #70 #71
PPAExp #99 #108
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #62 #66
F7 HavocF7 #42 #119
DB HavocDB #54 #20
Missouri State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatMOST OffLT Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #50
SuccessSuc #105 #30
ExplosiveExp #1 #119
PPAPPA #67 #27
PowerPwr #87 #81
SP+SP+ #80 #70
Pts POPPO #69 #22
HavocHav #136 #12
Missouri State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffLT Def
Run GameRun #107 #55
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #40
Run ExplRExp #29 #128
PPAExp #113 #41
Run BlockR Blk #126 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #33
Stuff RateStuff #135 #12
TackleTak -  #79
Missouri State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatMOST OffLT Def
Pass GamePass #28 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #60 #38
Pass ExplPExl #8 #79
PPAExp #40 #25
Pass Block/RushP Blk #32 #120
F7 HavocF7 #135 #78
DB HavocDB #130 #1
Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

LT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 46° - Wind: 14 mph
Rematch from Week 14
Missouri State -2.5 (45.0)
Louisiana Tech won at Missouri State this year (42-30)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
LT's OC Tony Franklin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Baker10215566%1252538.1
Trey Kukuk588767%530236.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Clay Thevenin12160585.050
Trey Kukuk7948856.258
Omiri Wiggins9746844.837
Andrew Burnette7745385.998
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Finley37441011.973
Devin Gandy (Tr)21366217.442
Marlion Jackson17283116.642
Clay Thevenin2925108.730

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Fields903015
Mekhi Mason6215434
Jadon Mayfield579440
Jakari Foster511034
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Mayfield579440
Mekhi Mason6215434
Donovan Rieman285301
Sifa Leota489268
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.472009
Sifa Leota489268
Cedric Woods321008

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark24737666%324428118.6
Deuce Bailey234749%335207.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)199102175.170
Ramone Green Jr.5227815.345
Deuce Bailey278113.020
Ronnel Johnson138038.038
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Alred Luke43640514.959
Jmariyae Robinson44632714.452
Tristian Gardner30465615.542
Ronnel Johnson35463213.235

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kanye Young776154
Jared Lloyd764222
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)306452
Caleb Dietlin193362
Mitchell Toney235362
Cooper Roy114220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)2110011
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105