Louisiana Tech at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Missouri State Bears

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (2:00 PM EST)
Missouri State -2.5 (45.0) (-135) Open: -3.0 | 51.5
Louisiana Tech 42 - Missouri State: 30 (Conference USA)

Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (19 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

MOST is playing their 6th straight game
LT is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Missouri State -0.5 (SP+ LT -9.5)
Projected Score: LT: 24 - MOST: 24 (48)
MOST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
LT Travel: 324 miles

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (28 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
LT Players
MOST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana	-14.5	50.5	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Louisiana Tech at LSU	+36.5	49.5	L 7 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State	-10.0	42.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss	-3.0	51.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Louisiana Tech at UTEP	-3.5	48.5	W 30 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State	-4.5	46.5	L 7 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21	Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky	-5.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	N
Fri 10/31	Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston	-16.5	48.0	W 55 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Louisiana Tech at Delaware	-5.5	57.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/15	Louisiana Tech at Washington State	+10.0	43.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/22	Louisiana Tech vs Liberty	+1.5	45.5	W 34 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Louisiana Tech at Missouri State	+2.5	45.0	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Tue 12/30	Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina	-10.0	51.0	W 23 - 14	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LT	#130 (.02)	37% (119)	27.3	37% (122)	2.62 (125)	109	38% (111)	211	3.09 (124)	#26 (.1)	37% (13)	20.8	39% (36)	35% (11)	3.72 (61)	46.7	1.5	1.2
MOST		0%	25.6	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	28.8	0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LT Offense	13	27.3	18.8	37.5%	3.09	1.5	17	319	109	211	3.1	49%	51%	37%	38%	17%	.02
MOST Defense	1	28.8	25.3	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LT Defense	13	20.8	25.3	37.2%	3.72	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	39%	35%	15%	.1
MOST Offense	1	25.6	28.3	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisiana Tech	13	29:34	17.2	40%	35%	4.9	46.7	1.5	1.2	5.2	1.6	0	33.2
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LT Offense	13	49% (78)	37% (122)	35.2	108.5	3.1	14 (98)	-.09 (134)	2.62 (125)	66% (114)	12% (116)	0.69 (134)
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LT Defense	13	56% (121)	39% (36)	-	-	-	-	.09 (54)	2.9 (50)	70% (48)	11% (52)	1.01 (82)
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LT Offense	13	51% (56)	38% (111)	18.8	29.8	210.9	7.1	11.2	18 (68)	7 (26)	.13 (115)	1.7 (35)	33% (103)	26% (117)	.15 (127)	5% (22)	2.1 (27)
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LT Defense	13	43% (9)	35% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.15 (26)	1.6 (72)	35% (20)	29% (46)	.28 (56)	5% (112)	1.9 (30)
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -14.83 #119
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 4.42 #120
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 19.25 #100
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #77
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #68

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisiana Tech: -14.83 Missouri State: -7.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisiana Tech: -1.3 Missouri State: -10.7

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -7.6 #100
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 11.31 #79
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 20.81 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7 #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.8
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.3

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri State 24
Louisiana Tech 24

Projected Total Points: 48

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Missouri State	30	Louisiana Tech	42	Missouri State -2.5	Louisiana Tech	45.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri State	0	0	1 Overs
Louisiana Tech	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#119) LT at (#100) MOST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LT	MOST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#119	#100
SP+SP+	#77	#108
Perf GradeGrade	#83	#100
OffenseOff	#108	#67
DefenseDef	#37	#100
Spec TeamsST	#32	#135
TalentTal	#122	#131
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#38

Louisiana Tech Notes(11/10) QB1 Blake Baker out for season (torn ACL)
(10/22) Criminal clock management costly vs WKU
(10/22) QB Baker torched WKU for 340 yds and 49 rushing
(10/22) Most penalized team in CUSA, Def good but leaking
(10/21) QB1 Blake Baker, JAG w/ some mobility
(10/10) Give Cumbie 2 weeks he gets routed by Kennesaw St
(10/9) Lead CFB w/ 13 TOs & 5 Def TD. Allow 14 ppg
(9/21) Shockingly good start, box score ugly vs SMiss
(9/21) Off 2-13 on 3rd down, 2.7 ypc vs S Miss and won?
(9/17) Played hard vs LSU, Def great in red zone early
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
Louisiana Tech Injury Report

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

Louisiana Tech on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LT Off	MOST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#108	#100
SuccessSuc	#119	NR
ExplosiveExp	#113	NR
PPAPPA	#130	NR
PowerPwr	#120	#116
SP+SP+	#77	#118
Pts POPPO	#124	NR
HavocHav	#83	NR

Louisiana Tech Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LT Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#33	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	#122	NR
Run ExplRExp	#134	NR
PPAExp	#134	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	#125	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#119	NR
TackleTak	-	#107

Louisiana Tech Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LT Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#111	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#35	NR
PPAExp	#115	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#67	#70
F7 HavocF7	#116	NR
DB HavocDB	#22	NR

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	LT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#37
SuccessSuc	NR	#13
ExplosiveExp	NR	#57
PPAPPA	NR	#26
PowerPwr	#79	#100
SP+SP+	#77	#68
Pts POPPO	NR	#61
HavocHav	NR	#76

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	LT Def
Run GameRun	#98	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#36
Run ExplRExp	NR	#82
PPAExp	NR	#54
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#50
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#41
TackleTak	-	#80

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	LT Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#11
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#72
PPAExp	NR	#26
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#108
F7 HavocF7	NR	#52
DB HavocDB	NR	#112

Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

LT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
Missouri State -2.5 (45.0)
Louisiana Tech won at Missouri State this year (42-30)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana Tech beat Missouri State last year (42-30)

LT's OC Tony Franklin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Baker	102	155	66%	1252	5	3	8.1
Trey Kukuk	67	106	63%	644	3	4	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Clay Thevenin	131	634	8	4.8	50
Trey Kukuk	98	609	5	6.2	58
Andrew Burnette	94	486	9	5.2	98
Omiri Wiggins	97	468	4	4.8	37

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Finley	38	445	0	11.7	73
Marlion Jackson	20	370	2	18.5	52
Devin Gandy (Tr)	21	366	2	17.4	42
Clay Thevenin	33	269	0	8.2	30

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Jeremiah Johnson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Fields	90	3	0	1	5
Mekhi Mason	62	15	4	3	4
Jadon Mayfield	61	9	4	5	1
Sifa Leota	58	12	4	7	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Mayfield	61	9	4	5	1
Sifa Leota	58	12	4	7	8
Mekhi Mason	62	15	4	3	4
Donovan Rieman	29	5	3	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.	47	2	0	0	9
Sifa Leota	58	12	4	7	8
Cedric Woods	34	1	0	1	8

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5