USC at Purdue - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
USC -20.5 (59.5) (-1450) Open: 0.0
USC 33 - Purdue: 17 (Big Ten)

Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

PUR 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: USC -22.5 (SP+ USC -23)
Projected Score: USC: 40 - PUR: 17 (57)
USC Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
USC Travel: 1772 miles, 3 hrs behind

Boilermakers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
PUR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	USC vs Missouri State	-34.5	59.5	W 73 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-29.0	61.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-20.5	59.5	W 33 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-18.5	55.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	-6.5	62.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	-3.0	58.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+10.5	60.5	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	-4.5	59.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/7	USC vs Northwestern	-14.5	54.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-6.5	48.5	W 26 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+10.5	59.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-21.0	59.0	W 29 - 10	U	N
Tue 12/30	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Purdue's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Purdue vs Ball State	-16.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Purdue vs Southern Illinois	-19.5	52.0	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Purdue vs USC	+20.5	59.5	L 17 - 33	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Purdue at Notre Dame	+24.5	51.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Purdue vs Illinois	+7.5	55.5	L 27 - 43	O	N
Sat 10/11	Purdue at Minnesota	+7.5	49.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+3.0	47.5	L 0 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/25	Purdue vs Rutgers	-2.5	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/1	Purdue at Michigan	+21.0	48.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Purdue vs Ohio State	+29.5	49.5	L 10 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Purdue at Washington	+14.5	51.5	L 13 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Purdue vs Indiana	+28.5	53.5	L 3 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	35.8	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	23	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)	18.8	42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)	31.8	49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PUR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	35.8	27.4	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24
PUR Defense	12	31.8	30	49.3%	4.82	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	49%	50%	12%	.39

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	23	28.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18
PUR Offense	12	18.8	20.9	40.8%	3.34	1.6	15	299	116	184	4	46%	53%	42%	40%	22%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7
Purdue	12	26:50	14.6	31%	28%	5.5	51.8	1.6	0.4	5.2	1.8	0	26.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)
PUR Defense	12	53% (96)	49% (120)	-	-	-	-	.32 (134)	3.39 (120)	76% (79)	8% (109)	1.15 (124)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)
PUR Offense	12	46% (94)	42% (90)	28.8	115.5	4	9 (125)	.04 (108)	3.04 (65)	59% (126)	14% (128)	0.8 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)
PUR Defense	12	47% (40)	50% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.48 (130)	1.6 (88)	28% (115)	41% (134)	.63 (134)	4% (125)	2.1 (90)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)
PUR Offense	12	53% (40)	40% (93)	15.8	27.4	183.9	6.7	11.7	13 (116)	9 (48)	.16 (103)	1.5 (92)	32% (78)	31% (72)	.49 (14)	8% (118)	2.1 (29)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 13.95 #26
USC's Offense Rating: 23.87 #16
USC's Defense Rating: 9.92 #45
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9 #16
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.9 #9
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 13.95 Purdue: -6.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 16.9 Purdue: -6.1

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -6.875 #112
Purdue's Offense Rating: 7.37 #107
Purdue's Defense Rating: 20.02 #108
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.1 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #104
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #90

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 40
Purdue 17

Projected Total Points: 57

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Purdue	17	USC	33	USC -20.5	Purdue	59.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Purdue	0	1	0 Overs
USC	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#26) USC at (#112) PUR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	PUR
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#26	#112
SP+SP+	#16	#90
Perf GradeGrade	#30	#125
OffenseOff	#17	#112
DefenseDef	#73	#134
Spec TeamsST	#124	#6
TalentTal	#21	#65
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#88

USC Notes(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report

Purdue Notes(12/18) DC Mike Scherer fired after one season
(11/28) Lost 10 straight to finish, only 3 one score games. Woof
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
Purdue Injury Report

USC on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	PUR Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#134
SuccessSuc	#11	#129
ExplosiveExp	#91	#112
PPAPPA	#41	#134
PowerPwr	#16	#108
SP+SP+	#9	#90
Pts POPPO	#85	#134
HavocHav	#101	#125

USC Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#15	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#120
Run ExplRExp	#106	#124
PPAExp	#21	#134
Run BlockR Blk	#110	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#106
TackleTak	-	#124

USC Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#129
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#88
PPAExp	#74	#130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#117
F7 HavocF7	#24	#109
DB HavocDB	#134	#125

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	USC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#73
SuccessSuc	#96	#94
ExplosiveExp	#117	#24
PPAPPA	#112	#78
PowerPwr	#107	#45
SP+SP+	#104	#36
Pts POPPO	#115	#49
HavocHav	#131	#105

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#103	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#78
Run ExplRExp	#130	#77
PPAExp	#108	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#110	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#120
TackleTak	-	#30

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#4
PPAExp	#103	#49
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#64
F7 HavocF7	#128	#127
DB HavocDB	#118	#42

Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
USC 20.5 (59.5)
USC won at Purdue this year (33-17)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Purdue last year (33-17)

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	265	403	66%	3711	24	10	9.2
Husan Longstreet	13	15	87%	103	1	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
King Miller	156	972	8	6.2	75
Waymond Jordan	88	576	5	6.5	40
Eli Sanders (Tr)	44	258	2	5.9	20
Jayden Maiava	54	157	6	2.9	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	79	1156	11	14.6	74
Ja'Kobi Lane	49	745	4	15.2	59
Tanook Hines	34	561	2	16.5	51
Lake McRee	30	450	4	15.0	64

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desman Stephens II	86	3	0	1	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2
Christian Pierce	64	3	1	0	3
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	51	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameryn Fountain	37	11	6	1	0
Braylan Shelby	27	6	5	4	0
Jide Abasiri	26	4	4	2	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)	4	0	0	4
DeCarlos Nicholson	42	1	1	4
Marcelles Williams	37	0	0	4

PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)	199	338	59%	2153	9	10	6.4
Malachi Singleton (Tr)	38	64	59%	439	5	2	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	125	521	4	4.2	32
Antonio Harris	69	305	2	4.4	41
Malachi Thomas (Tr)	53	243	0	4.6	57
Ryan Browne (Tr)	66	206	4	3.1	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)	63	570	1	9.0	31
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)	34	505	4	14.9	36
E.J. Horton (Tr)	27	289	1	10.7	28
Corey Smith (Tr)	14	237	1	16.9	60

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)	110	3	0	0	5
Mani Powell (Tr)	110	12	5	3	2
Charles Correa (Tr)	77	8	3	4	2
Myles Slusher	63	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mani Powell (Tr)	110	12	5	3	2
C.J. Nunnally	42	11	5	8	1
Charles Correa (Tr)	77	8	3	4	2
Jamarrion Harkless	13	2	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Hudauri Hines	32	2	0	8
Smiley Bradford	30	5	2	6
Tony Grimes (Tr)	34	0	0	5