USC at Purdue - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
USC -20.5 (59.5) (-1450) Open: 0.0
USC 33 - Purdue: 17 (Big Ten)

Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

Rain Predicted
Wind: 12.3 MPH
PUR 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: USC -27 (SP+ USC -25)
Projected Score: USC: 40 - PUR: 13 (54)
USC Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
USC Travel: 1772 miles, 3 hrs behind

Boilermakers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
PUR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	USC vs Missouri State	-34.5	59.5	W 73 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-29.0	61.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-20.5	59.5	W 33 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-18.5	55.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	-6.5	62.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	-3.0	58.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+10.5	60.5	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	-4.5	59.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/7	USC vs Northwestern	-14.5	54.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-6.5	48.5	W 26 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+10.5	59.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-21.0	59.0	W 29 - 10	U	N
Tue 12/30	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Purdue's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Purdue vs Ball State	-16.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Purdue vs Southern Illinois	-19.5	52.0	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Purdue vs USC	+20.5	59.5	L 17 - 33	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Purdue at Notre Dame	+24.5	51.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Purdue vs Illinois	+7.5	55.5	L 27 - 43	O	N
Sat 10/11	Purdue at Minnesota	+7.5	49.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+3.0	47.5	L 0 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/25	Purdue vs Rutgers	-2.5	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/1	Purdue at Michigan	+21.0	48.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Purdue vs Ohio State	+29.5	49.5	L 10 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Purdue at Washington	+14.5	51.5	L 13 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Purdue vs Indiana	+28.5	53.5	L 3 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#6 (.35)	50% (7)	35.8	48% (18)	3.25 (21)	161	53% (4)	274	4.72 (8)	#59 (.14)	45% (121)	23	47% (122)	43% (88)	3.37 (42)	50.4	1.1	1.3
PUR	#103 (.11)	43% (62)	18.8	43% (72)	2.94 (69)	126	43% (53)	217	3.06 (120)	#125 (.27)	48% (131)	31.8	49% (128)	48% (128)	4.03 (105)	46.8	1.8	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	35.8	27.4	50.3%	4.72	1.1	22	435	161	274	5.4	48%	50%	48%	53%	13%	.35
PUR Defense	12	31.8	30	48.3%	4.03	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	49%	48%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	23	28.8	45.5%	3.37	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	47%	43%	16%	.14
PUR Offense	12	18.8	20.9	42.8%	3.06	1.8	19	344	126	217	4	47%	52%	43%	43%	16%	.11

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	27:23	22.2	52%	64%	5.3	50.4	1.1	1.3	5	2.2	2	26.9
Purdue	12	28:01	19.3	38%	60%	4.8	46.8	1.8	0.8	5.3	2	0	27.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	48% (83)	48% (18)	30	160.5	5.4	28 (16)	.21 (24)	3.25 (21)	79% (24)	7% (22)	0.95 (76)
PUR Defense	12	55% (125)	49% (128)	-	-	-	-	.18 (114)	3.25 (122)	78% (112)	10% (68)	0.86 (18)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	48% (51)	47% (122)	-	-	-	-	.11 (70)	3.27 (125)	65% (25)	11% (35)	0.79 (6)
PUR Offense	12	47% (97)	43% (72)	31.3	126.4	4	11 (78)	.15 (53)	2.94 (69)	56% (136)	10% (89)	1.04 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	50% (56)	53% (4)	20.2	30	274.5	9.2	13.6	25 (22)	8 (34)	.51 (4)	1.6 (42)	26% (10)	38% (10)	.52 (10)	6% (68)	2.2 (18)
PUR Defense	12	43% (13)	48% (128)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (123)	.4 (123)	1.6 (101)	28% (126)	32% (98)	.26 (59)	6% (76)	1.9 (33)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	50% (89)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (12)	.17 (38)	1.6 (76)	29% (118)	32% (100)	.28 (65)	5% (104)	2.1 (104)
PUR Offense	12	52% (37)	43% (53)	19.8	33.7	217.2	6.5	11	15 (86)	13 (132)	.14 (117)	1.4 (117)	32% (87)	36% (17)	.36 (50)	6% (73)	1.9 (97)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 22.90 #13
USC's Offense Rating: 26.26 #9
USC's Defense Rating: 3.36 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 22.90 Purdue: -7.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 17.3 Purdue: -7.8

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -7.05 #114
Purdue's Offense Rating: 4.53 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 15.83 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.8 #96
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #105
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #94

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 40
Purdue 13

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 21
Purdue 20

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
USC 31
Purdue 23

Total Points: 54

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Purdue	17	USC	33	USC -20.5	Purdue	59.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Purdue	0	1	0 Overs
USC	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#13) USC at (#114) PUR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	PUR
Power RatePwr	#13	#114
SP+SP+	#17	#96
Perf GradeGrade	#33	#125
OffenseOff	#18	#113
DefenseDef	#79	#130
Spec TeamsST	#122	#6
TalentTal	#21	#65
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#88

USC Notes(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report

Purdue Notes(12/18) DC Mike Scherer fired after one season
(11/28) Lost 10 straight to finish, only 3 one score games. Woof
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
Purdue Injury Report

USC on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	PUR Def
Perf GradePerf	#18	#130
SuccessSuc	#7	#131
ExplosiveExp	#37	#49
PPAPPA	#6	#125
PowerPwr	#9	#116
SP+SP+	#11	#94
Pts POPPO	#8	#105
HavocHav	#34	#77

USC Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#22	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#128
Run ExplRExp	#76	#18
PPAExp	#24	#114
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	#122
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#81
TackleTak	-	#125

USC Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	#4	#128
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#101
PPAExp	#4	#123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#107	#116
F7 HavocF7	#22	#68
DB HavocDB	#68	#76

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#113	#79
SuccessSuc	#62	#121
ExplosiveExp	#75	#13
PPAPPA	#103	#59
PowerPwr	#94	#36
SP+SP+	#105	#35
Pts POPPO	#120	#42
HavocHav	#79	#63

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#97	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#122
Run ExplRExp	#41	#6
PPAExp	#53	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#76	#85
TackleTak	-	#26

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#53	#88
Pass ExplPExl	#117	#76
PPAExp	#117	#38
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#116	#84
F7 HavocF7	#89	#35
DB HavocDB	#73	#104

Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 74° - Wind: 12 mph
Rain: 0.016

Rematch from Week 3
USC 20.5 (59.5)
USC won at Purdue this year (33-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	247	373	66%	3431	23	8	9.2
Husan Longstreet	13	15	87%	103	1	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
King Miller	131	873	7	6.7	75
Waymond Jordan	88	576	5	6.5	40
Eli Sanders (Tr)	44	258	2	5.9	20
Jayden Maiava	51	150	6	2.9	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	79	1156	11	14.6	74
Ja'Kobi Lane	49	745	4	15.2	59
Lake McRee	30	450	4	15.0	64
Tanook Hines	28	398	2	14.2	51

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desman Stephens II	80	1	0	1	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2
Christian Pierce	58	2	1	0	3
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	51	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Braylan Shelby	23	6	5	3
Kameryn Fountain	30	8	4	0
Jide Abasiri	24	4	4	2
Anthony Lucas	37	4	3	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Marcelles Williams	33	0	0	4
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)	4	0	0	4
Christian Pierce	58	2	1	3

PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)	199	338	59%	2153	9	10	6.4
Malachi Singleton (Tr)	38	64	59%	439	5	2	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	125	521	4	4.2	32
Antonio Harris	69	305	2	4.4	41
Malachi Thomas (Tr)	53	243	0	4.6	57
Ryan Browne (Tr)	66	206	4	3.1	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)	63	570	1	9.0	31
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)	34	505	4	14.9	36
E.J. Horton (Tr)	27	289	1	10.7	28
Corey Smith (Tr)	14	237	1	16.9	60

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)	110	3	0	0	5
Mani Powell (Tr)	110	12	5	3	2
Charles Correa (Tr)	77	8	3	4	2
Myles Slusher	63	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mani Powell (Tr)	110	12	5	3	2
C.J. Nunnally	42	11	5	8	1
Charles Correa (Tr)	77	8	3	4	2
Jamarrion Harkless	13	2	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Hudauri Hines	32	2	0	8
Smiley Bradford	30	5	2	6
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)	110	3	0	5