SMU at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview

SMU Mustangs at Missouri State Bears

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
SMU -29.5 (60.5) (-5000) Open: 0.0
SMU 28 - Missouri State: 10

Mustangs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: SMU -21 (SP+ SMU -24)
Projected Score: SMU: 39 - MOST: 18 (57)
SMU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 51%
SMU Travel: 361 miles

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (28 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
MOST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	SMU vs East Texas A&M	-51.0	65.0	W 42 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/6	SMU vs Baylor	-3.0	65.5	L 45 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/13	SMU at Missouri State	-29.5	60.5	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/20	SMU at TCU	+6.5	63.5	L 24 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	SMU vs Syracuse	-17.5	56.5	W 31 - 18	U	N
Sat 10/11	SMU vs Stanford	-19.5	55.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/18	SMU at Clemson	+3.5	49.5	W 35 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/25	SMU at Wake Forest	-6.5	53.5	L 12 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/1	SMU vs Miami	+8.5	50.5	W 26 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/8	SMU at Boston College	-10.5	54.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	SMU vs Louisville	-4.0	49.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/29	SMU at California	-13.5	53.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 1/2	SMU vs Arizona	-2.5	55.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)	32.2	44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)	20.5	39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6
MOST		0%	25.6	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	28.8	0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	14	32.2	29.8	44.1%	4.41	1.7	23	432	169	263	4.4	51%	49%	44%	44%	15%	.24
MOST Defense	1	28.8	25.3	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	14	20.5	22.2	36.7%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	39%	35%	18%	.03
MOST Offense	1	25.6	28.3	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	14	28:28	22.6	44%	50%	8.1	77.7	1.7	1.6	6.6	3.1	3	31.1
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	14	51% (65)	44% (62)	38.3	168.9	4.4	29 (18)	.12 (77)	2.97 (83)	70% (90)	9% (49)	0.93 (86)
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	14	44% (9)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-.05 (2)	2.72 (25)	60% (10)	11% (36)	0.81 (6)
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	14	49% (70)	44% (45)	19.9	31.2	262.9	8.4	13.2	28 (15)	12 (85)	.37 (19)	1.8 (11)	33% (94)	34% (34)	.47 (17)	6% (69)	2.3 (13)
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	14	55% (124)	35% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.11 (17)	1.7 (107)	37% (7)	27% (21)	.16 (12)	7% (30)	2.1 (96)
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.45 #29
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.12 #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.67 #26
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00 #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4 #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.45 Missouri State: -7.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.4 Missouri State: -10.7

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -7.6 #100
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 11.31 #79
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 20.81 #116
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7 #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 39
Missouri State 18

Projected Total Points: 57

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Missouri State	10	SMU	28	SMU -29.5	Missouri State	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri State	0	1	0 Overs
SMU	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#29) SMU at (#100) MOST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	MOST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#29	#100
SP+SP+	#23	#108
Perf GradeGrade	#20	#100
OffenseOff	#36	#67
DefenseDef	#20	#100
Spec TeamsST	#60	#135
TalentTal	#64	#131
Blue ChipsBC%	#42	#38

SMU Notes(10/31) Lashlee extended, will remain at SMU
(10/23) SMU has won 20 straight conference games (Wk 9)
(10/19) Big W @ Clemson, Run Def great, Jennings good
(10/19) SMU has not lost a reg season ACC game, 11-0
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
SMU Injury Report

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

SMU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#36	#100
SuccessSuc	#53	NR
ExplosiveExp	#21	NR
PPAPPA	#38	NR
PowerPwr	#33	#116
SP+SP+	#22	#118
Pts POPPO	#25	NR
HavocHav	#46	NR

SMU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#88	#101
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	NR
Run ExplRExp	#86	NR
PPAExp	#77	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#57	NR
TackleTak	-	#107

SMU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#45	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#11	NR
PPAExp	#19	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#6	#70
F7 HavocF7	#49	NR
DB HavocDB	#69	NR

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#20
SuccessSuc	NR	#9
ExplosiveExp	NR	#69
PPAPPA	NR	#5
PowerPwr	#79	#26
SP+SP+	#77	#25
Pts POPPO	NR	#13
HavocHav	NR	#29

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#98	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#35
Run ExplRExp	NR	#6
PPAExp	NR	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#25
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#27
TackleTak	-	#14

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#10
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#107
PPAExp	NR	#17
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#26
F7 HavocF7	NR	#36
DB HavocDB	NR	#30

Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
SMU 29.5 (60.5)
SMU won at Missouri State this year (28-10)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Missouri State last year (28-10)

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	300	454	66%	3641	26	13	8.0
Charlie Fiser	4	4	100%	30	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Harden (Tr)	171	787	9	4.6	53
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)	67	479	4	7.1	87
Derrick McFall	35	189	4	5.4	48
Dramekco Green	25	90	1	3.6	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Hudson	61	766	6	12.6	70
Romello Brinson	43	638	3	14.8	75
Yamir Knight (Tr)	54	637	5	11.8	61
Matthew Hibner	31	436	4	14.1	80

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ahmaad Moses	104	6	1	0	3
Isaiah Nwokobia	80	2	0	0	7
Brandon Booker	69	3	1	4	2
Alex Kilgore	60	4	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Smith	53	18	9	4	1
Terry Webb (Tr)	46	7	6	2	4
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)	42	8	6	0	0
Cam Robertson	52	10	5	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Miyazono	44	5	2	0	8
Isaiah Nwokobia	80	2	0	0	7
Deuce Harmon	34	1	0	1	7

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5