SMU at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
SMU -29.5 (60.5) (-5000) Open: 0.0
SMU 28 - Missouri State: 10

Mustangs (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 34 - 22 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

Temp: 93° (33% Hum)
Our Line: SMU -29.5 (SP+ SMU -23)
Projected Score: SMU: 40 - MOST: 11 (51)
SMU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 51%
SMU Travel: 361 miles

Bears (3 - 3) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 22 - 30 (25 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#94)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
MOST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	SMU vs East Texas A&M	-51.0	65.0	W 42 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/6	SMU vs Baylor	-3.0	65.5	L 45 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/13	SMU at Missouri State	-29.5	60.5	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/20	SMU at TCU	+6.5	63.5	L 24 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	SMU vs Syracuse	-17.5	56.5	W 31 - 18	U	N
Sat 10/11	SMU vs Stanford	-19.5	55.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/18	SMU at Clemson	+9.5	55.5
Sat 10/25	SMU at Wake Forest	-5.5
Sat 11/1	SMU vs Miami	+8
Sat 11/8	SMU at Boston College	-16.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	SMU vs Louisville	+0.5
Sat 11/29	SMU at California	-13

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	+6
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-1.5
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+11.5
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	+4.5
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#36 (.27)	44% (58)	34	41% (94)	3.03 (61)	127	47% (30)	278	4.32 (49)	#18 (.04)	41% (59)	22.3	38% (32)	43% (83)	2.38 (3)	67.8	1.5	2.3
MOST	#75 (.18)	38% (119)	21.7	36% (128)	2.24 (132)	106	41% (88)	265	3.59 (98)	#129 (.29)	48% (126)	29.7	47% (115)	48% (123)	4.16 (97)	70	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)		44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)		39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	6	34	26	44.1%	4.32	1.5	22	405	127	278	4	46%	53%	41%	47%	17%	.27
MOST Defense	6	29.7	21.7	47.6%	4.16	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	47%	48%	16%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	6	22.3	22.5	40.6%	2.38	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	38%	43%	21%	.04
MOST Offense	6	21.7	24.7	38.3%	3.59	1.3	18	370	106	265	3.4	44%	56%	36%	41%	25%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	6	26:19	21.5	38%	75%	7	67.8	1.5	2.3	6.7	3.2	3	28.2
Missouri State	6	31:22	18.3	27%	57%	7.2	70	1.3	1.3	4.5	1.5	0	30

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	6	46% (101)	41% (94)	31.5	127.2	4	9 (77)	.12 (72)	3.03 (61)	84% (13)	10% (98)	1.04 (43)
MOST Defense	6	45% (24)	47% (115)	-	-	-	-	.17 (105)	3.06 (101)	77% (101)	9% (95)	0.96 (71)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	6	41% (7)	38% (32)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (12)	2.58 (29)	59% (15)	11% (51)	0.86 (28)
MOST Offense	6	44% (110)	36% (128)	31	105.7	3.4	5 (115)	.01 (115)	2.24 (132)	45% (136)	17% (136)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	6	53% (41)	47% (30)	23	32	277.8	8.7	12.1	15 (13)	6 (102)	.46 (23)	1.6 (49)	31% (72)	28% (96)	.35 (59)	6% (93)	2.2 (23)
MOST Defense	6	55% (112)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (93)	.38 (120)	1.5 (48)	28% (119)	30% (73)	.35 (91)	7% (41)	2.3 (128)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	6	58% (130)	43% (83)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (5)	.11 (30)	1.5 (52)	35% (28)	32% (98)	.23 (48)	11% (2)	2 (64)
MOST Offense	6	56% (27)	41% (88)	19.7	32.2	264.5	8.2	13.5	10 (60)	6 (102)	.32 (47)	1.9 (5)	37% (129)	32% (59)	.27 (87)	8% (126)	2.1 (47)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 23.81 #22
SMU's Offense Rating: 20.49 #30
SMU's Defense Rating: -3.32 #20
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00 #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.8 #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #29
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #59

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 23.81 Missouri State: -13.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 8.8 Missouri State: -14.2

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -13.3 #129
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95 #97
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 23.35 #132
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.2 #119
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #105
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.9 #121

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

SMU Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.5

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 40
Missouri State 11

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 21
Missouri State 12

Total Points: 33

Based on Entire Season
SMU 28
Missouri State 23

Total Points: 51

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 21.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.7

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Missouri State	10	SMU	28	SMU -29.5	Missouri State	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri State	0	1	0 Overs
SMU	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#22) SMU at (#129) MOST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	MOST
Power RatePwr	#22	#129
SP+SP+	#44	#119
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#110
OffenseOff	#35	#89
DefenseDef	#21	#112
Spec TeamsST	#78	#115
TalentTal	#64	#131
Blue ChipsBC%	#42	#38

SMU Notes
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential

Missouri State Notes
(10/8) QB Jacob Clark inj vs WKU, out vs MTSU
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
(3/26) Def limited, lots of shootouts LY. Some exp

SMU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
Perf GradePerf	#35	#112
SuccessSuc	#58	#126
ExplosiveExp	#15	#68
PPAPPA	#36	#129
PowerPwr	#30	#132
SP+SP+	#29	#121
Pts POPPO	#49	#97
HavocHav	#99	#68

SMU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#124	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#94	#115
Run ExplRExp	#43	#71
PPAExp	#72	#105
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#101
Stuff RateStuff	#71	#46
TackleTak	-	#117

SMU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#45
Pass SuccessPSuc	#30	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#48
PPAExp	#23	#120
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#1	#108
F7 HavocF7	#98	#95
DB HavocDB	#93	#41

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#89	#21
SuccessSuc	#119	#59
ExplosiveExp	#1	#58
PPAPPA	#75	#18
PowerPwr	#97	#20
SP+SP+	#105	#59
Pts POPPO	#98	#3
HavocHav	#136	#11

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#90	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	#128	#32
Run ExplRExp	#28	#28
PPAExp	#115	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	#132	#29
Stuff RateStuff	#135	#8
TackleTak	-	#23

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	#88	#83
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#52
PPAExp	#47	#30
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#44	#60
F7 HavocF7	#136	#51
DB HavocDB	#126	#2

Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 93° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 3
SMU 29.5 (60.5)
SMU won at Missouri State this year (28-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	137	191	72%	1658	15	6	8.7
Ty Hawkins	1	1	100%	9	0	0	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Harden (Tr)	85	415	5	4.9	40
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)	28	226	2	8.1	87
Dramekco Green	18	55	1	3.1	13
Derrick McFall	12	30	0	2.5	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Romello Brinson	32	484	3	15.1	75
Jalen Cooper	15	271	2	18.1	75
Jordan Hudson	15	203	2	13.5	37
Yamir Knight (Tr)	21	190	2	9.0	34

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Nwokobia	48	2	0	0	6
Ahmaad Moses	44	4	1	0	0
Brandon Booker	33	1	1	3	0
Cam Robertson	31	8	5	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cam Robertson	31	8	5	3	2
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)	22	5	4	0	0
Terry Webb (Tr)	20	3	3	0	1
Isaiah Smith	22	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Isaiah Nwokobia	48	2	0	6
Brandon Miyazono	21	2	1	5
Deuce Harmon	19	0	0	4

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	88	135	65%	1195	8	6	8.9
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	77	349	2	4.5	50
Ramone Green Jr.	21	105	0	5.0	24
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Reggie Branch	6	27	0	4.5	10

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	24	335	2	14.0	44
Ramone Green Jr.	13	255	1	19.6	76
Tristian Gardner	14	241	2	17.2	42
Jmariyae Robinson	13	212	1	16.3	52

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maguire Neal	34	0	0	0	1
Kanye Young	34	4	1	5	1
Jared Lloyd	33	3	1	0	0
Jalen Brooks (Tr)	30	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mitchell Toney	19	5	2	3	2
Jared Lloyd	33	3	1	0	0
Caleb Dietlin	5	1	1	1	0
Kanye Young	34	4	1	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	10	0	0	5
Davon Townley Jr.	8	0	1	3
Jalen Brooks (Tr)	30	1	0	2