UT Martin at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview
UT Martin logo   UT Martin Skyhawks at Missouri State Bears  Missouri State logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Missouri State -14.0 (55.5) (-575)  Open: -13.5 | 52.5
Missouri State 42 - UT Martin: 10

 
Skyhawks (0 - 3) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 11 - 37 (11 - 37 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MOST 2nd straight Home Game
UTM coming off BYE
MOST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -7.5  (SP+ MOST -11)
MOST Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (28 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
UT Martin's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UT Martin at Oklahoma State+26.056.5L 7 - 27UY
Sat 9/6 UT Martin at UTEP+7.549.5L 17 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UT Martin at Missouri State+14.055.5L 10 - 42UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UT Martin's Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Missouri State at USC+34.559.5L 13 - 73ON
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+7.053.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.560.5L 10 - 28UY
Sat 9/20 Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.055.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.559.5L 22 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.552.5W 22 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.551.5W 24 - 17UY
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International-3.050.0W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+7.551.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP-6.547.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.554.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.545.0L 30 - 42ON
Thu 12/18 Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.555.5L 28 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTM0%11.30%000%000%370%0%0000
MOST0%25.60%000%000%28.80%0%0000
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTM Offense211.311.30%00000000%0%0%0%0%
MOST Defense128.825.30%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTM Defense237370%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
MOST Offense125.628.30%00000000%0%0%0%0%

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UT Martin20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Missouri State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTM Offense20%0%000000%0%0
MOST Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTM Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
MOST Offense10%0%000000%0%0

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTM Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
MOST Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTM Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
MOST Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0

UT Martin's Power Ratings
UT Martin's Power Rating: NR
UT Martin's Offense Rating: NR
UT Martin's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UT Martin's 2025 Expected Record: -
UT Martin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
UT Martin's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
UT Martin's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average OVC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UT Martin:    Missouri State: -7.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UT Martin:    Missouri State: -10.7




Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -7.6  #100
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 11.31  #79
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 20.81  #116
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7  #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UT Martin Scoring
Offense: 11.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.3
Defense: 37 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

UT Martin's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 2
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri State 32
UT Martin 19

Projected Total Points: 51
Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Missouri State42UT Martin10Missouri State -14.0Missouri State55.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri State110 Overs
UT Martin001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#) UTM at (#100) MOST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTMMOST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #100
SP+SP+NR #108
Perf GradeGradeNR #100
OffenseOffNR #67
DefenseDefNR #100
Spec TeamsSTNR #135
TalentTalNR #131
Blue ChipsBC%NR #38
Missouri State Notes
(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report
UT Martin on Offense
CategoryCat
UTM OffMOST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #100
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNR #116
SP+SP+NR #118
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
UT Martin Run Game
CategoryCat
UTM OffMOST Def
Run GameRunNR #101
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #107
UT Martin Pass Game
CategoryCat
UTM OffMOST Def
Pass GamePassNR #69
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #70
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Missouri State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatMOST OffUTM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #67NR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #79NR
SP+SP+ #77NR
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Missouri State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffUTM Def
Run GameRun #98NR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #134 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Missouri State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatMOST OffUTM Def
Pass GamePass #24NR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #34NR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UTM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Missouri State -14.0 (55.5)
Missouri State won vs UT Martin this year (42-10)

Previous Matchups
Missouri State beat UT Martin last year (42-10)

  
UTM's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jase Bauer (Tr)20528871%20021027.0
Julian Calvez152268%104104.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Ansley11856524.825
Jase Bauer (Tr)129459103.650
Chris Franklin8945035.166
John Gentry9840114.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryce Bailey37491513.375
Phaizon Wilson (Tr)35450112.929
Scottie Alexander25284111.452
Hyatt Timosciek18181010.134

View UT Martin's Full Roster

UTM's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Stevenson201000
Jabaree Dawkins133100
Tah Mac Bright132101
Shamari Weir123200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn Johnson105300
Shamari Weir123200
Jabaree Dawkins133100
Toby Camp101110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JaMichael McGoy70003
Joel Castleberry70001
Tah Mac Bright132101

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark24737666%324428118.6
Deuce Bailey234749%335207.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)199102175.170
Ramone Green Jr.5227815.345
Deuce Bailey278113.020
Ronnel Johnson138038.038
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Alred Luke43640514.959
Jmariyae Robinson44632714.452
Tristian Gardner30465615.542
Ronnel Johnson35463213.235

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kanye Young776154
Jared Lloyd764222
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)306452
Caleb Dietlin193362
Mitchell Toney235362
Cooper Roy114220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)2110011
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105