UT Martin at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview
UT Martin logo UT Martin Skyhawks at Missouri State BearsMissouri State logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Missouri State -14.0 (55.5) (-575)  Open: -13.5 | 52.5
Missouri State 42 - UT Martin: 10

 
Skyhawks (0 - 3) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 11 - 37 (11 - 37 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MOST 2nd straight Home Game
UTM coming off BYE
MOST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -8  (SP+ MOST -9)
MOST Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (28 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
UT Martin's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UT Martin at Oklahoma State+26.056.5L 7 - 27UY
Sat 9/6 UT Martin at UTEP+7.549.5L 17 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UT Martin at Missouri State+14.055.5L 10 - 42UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UT Martin's Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Missouri State at USC+34.559.5L 13 - 73ON
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+7.053.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.560.5L 10 - 28UY
Sat 9/20 Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.055.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.559.5L 22 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.552.5W 22 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.551.5W 24 - 17UY
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International-3.050.0W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+7.551.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP-6.547.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.554.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.545.0L 30 - 42ON
Thu 12/18 Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.555.5L 28 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTM0%11.30%000%000%370%0%0000
MOST#67 (.18)39% (105)25.637% (124)2.49 (131)11442% (60)2803.69 (69)#113 (.23)43% (84)28.843% (72)43% (90)3.89 (92)66.51.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTM Offense311.311.30%00000000%0%0%0%0%
MOST Defense1328.825.342.7%3.891.2 - - - - - 48%50%43%43%15%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTM Defense337370%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
MOST Offense1325.628.339.3%3.691.4203931142803.642%56%37%42%24%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UT Martin30:000NAN%0%0000000100
Missouri State1331:2020.536%57%7.666.51.41.24.11.8029.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTM Offense30%0%000000%0%0
MOST Defense1348% (47)43% (72) - - - - .16 (102)2.76 (48)83% (129)8% (119)1.03 (102)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTM Defense30%0% - - - - 00%0%0
MOST Offense1342% (124)37% (124)31.7113.73.612 (122).03 (113)2.49 (131)61% (126)16% (135)1.07 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTM Offense30%0%000000000%0%0%0
MOST Defense1350% (86)43% (90) - - - - - - 8 (100).33 (108)1.6 (71)30% (90)27% (33).33 (87)7% (20)2.3 (130)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTM Defense30%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
MOST Offense1356% (17)42% (60)21.333.5279.78.413.130 (75)11 (88).33 (40)1.8 (8)36% (128)30% (77).26 (85)8% (130)2.2 (13)

UT Martin's Power Ratings
UT Martin's Power Rating: NR
UT Martin's Offense Rating: NR
UT Martin's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UT Martin's 2025 Expected Record: -
UT Martin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
UT Martin's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
UT Martin's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average OVC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UT Martin:    Missouri State: -8.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UT Martin:    Missouri State: -8.6




Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -8.07  #121
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95  #87
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 18.49  #127
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6  #99
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UT Martin Scoring
Offense: 11.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.3
Defense: 37 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

UT Martin's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 2
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri State 27
UT Martin 21

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
UT Martin 23
Missouri State 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Missouri State 32
UT Martin 19

Total Points: 51
Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Missouri State42UT Martin10Missouri State -14.0Missouri State55.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri State110 Overs
UT Martin001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#NR) UTM at (#121) MOST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTMMOST
Power RatePwrNR #121
SP+SP+NR #99
Perf GradeGradeNR #92
OffenseOffNR #65
DefenseDefNR #100
Spec TeamsSTNR #133
TalentTalNR #131
Blue ChipsBC%NR #38
Missouri State Notes
(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report
UT Martin on Offense
CategoryCat
UTM OffMOST Def
Perf GradePerfNR #100
SuccessSucNR #84
ExplosiveExpNR #102
PPAPPANR #113
PowerPwrNR #127
SP+SP+NR #108
Pts POPPONR #92
HavocHavNR #82
UT Martin Run Game
CategoryCat
UTM OffMOST Def
Run GameRunNR #106
Run SuccessRSucNR #72
Run ExplRExpNR #102
PPAExpNR #102
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #48
Stuff RateStuffNR #61
TackleTak -  #105
UT Martin Pass Game
CategoryCat
UTM OffMOST Def
Pass GamePassNR #62
Pass SuccessPSucNR #90
Pass ExplPExlNR #71
PPAExpNR #108
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #66
F7 HavocF7NR #119
DB HavocDBNR #20
Missouri State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatMOST OffUTM Def
Perf GradePerf #65NR
SuccessSuc #105NR
ExplosiveExp #1NR
PPAPPA #67NR
PowerPwr #87NR
SP+SP+ #80NR
Pts POPPO #69NR
HavocHav #136NR
Missouri State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffUTM Def
Run GameRun #107NR
Run SuccessRSuc #124NR
Run ExplRExp #29NR
PPAExp #113NR
Run BlockR Blk #126 -
OL YdsOLY #131NR
Stuff RateStuff #135NR
TackleTak - NR
Missouri State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatMOST OffUTM Def
Pass GamePass #28NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #60NR
Pass ExplPExl #8NR
PPAExp #40NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #32NR
F7 HavocF7 #135NR
DB HavocDB #130NR
Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UTM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 83° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Missouri State -14.0 (55.5)
Missouri State won vs UT Martin this year (42-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UTM's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jase Bauer (Tr)20528871%20021027.0
Julian Calvez152268%104104.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Ansley11856524.825
Jase Bauer (Tr)129459103.650
Chris Franklin8945035.166
John Gentry9840114.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryce Bailey37491513.375
Phaizon Wilson (Tr)35450112.929
Scottie Alexander25284111.452
Hyatt Timosciek18181010.134

View UT Martin's Full Roster

UTM's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Stevenson201000
Jabaree Dawkins133100
Tah Mac Bright132101
Shamari Weir123200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshawn Johnson105300
Shamari Weir123200
Jabaree Dawkins133100
Toby Camp101110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JaMichael McGoy70003
Douglas Newsome20001
Joel Castleberry70001

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark24737666%324428118.6
Deuce Bailey234749%335207.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)199102175.170
Ramone Green Jr.5227815.345
Deuce Bailey278113.020
Ronnel Johnson138038.038
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Alred Luke43640514.959
Jmariyae Robinson44632714.452
Tristian Gardner30465615.542
Ronnel Johnson35463213.235

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kanye Young776154
Jared Lloyd764222
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)306452
Caleb Dietlin193362
Mitchell Toney235362
Cooper Roy114220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)2110011
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105