UT Martin at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview

UT Martin Skyhawks at Missouri State Bears

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Missouri State -14.0 (55.5) (-575) Open: -13.5 | 52.5
Missouri State 42 - UT Martin: 10

Skyhawks (0 - 3) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 11 - 37 (11 - 37 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MOST 2nd straight Home Game
UTM coming off BYE
MOST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -9.5 (SP+ MOST -12)
MOST Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%

Bears (6 - 3) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (26 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
UTM Players
MOST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UT Martin's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	UT Martin at Oklahoma State	+26.0	56.5	L 7 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/6	UT Martin at UTEP	+7.5	49.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UT Martin at Missouri State	+14.0	55.5	L 10 - 42	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UT Martin's Schedule

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	+2.5
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+7.5
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	+7.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTM		0%	11.3	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	37	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MOST	#104 (.11)	37% (123)	22.6	35% (130)	2.44 (112)	107	39% (105)	226	3.46 (100)	#103 (.2)	45% (116)	25.9	43% (77)	47% (123)	3.89 (87)	62.9	1.3	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTM Offense	3	11.3	11.3	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MOST Defense	9	25.9	21.5	45.1%	3.89	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	43%	47%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTM Defense	3	37	37	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MOST Offense	9	22.6	25.5	36.8%	3.46	1.3	17	333	107	226	3.8	44%	55%	35%	39%	25%	.11

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UT Martin	3	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Missouri State	9	27:39	16.7	32%	57%	6.4	62.9	1.3	1.6	3.4	1.4	0	30.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTM Offense	3	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
MOST Defense	9	45% (15)	43% (77)	-	-	-	-	.09 (76)	2.27 (19)	78% (110)	8% (117)	0.95 (62)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTM Defense	3	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
MOST Offense	9	44% (114)	35% (130)	28.3	107.3	3.8	7 (122)	-.02 (122)	2.44 (112)	56% (132)	16% (136)	1 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTM Offense	3	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MOST Defense	9	54% (116)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (100)	.32 (104)	1.4 (22)	29% (120)	27% (39)	.29 (78)	8% (16)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTM Defense	3	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MOST Offense	9	55% (28)	39% (105)	18	29.3	225.9	7.7	12.6	15 (75)	8 (88)	.23 (77)	1.8 (10)	37% (135)	28% (90)	.21 (102)	10% (135)	2.1 (36)

UT Martin's Power Ratings
UT Martin's Power Rating: NR
UT Martin's Offense Rating: NR
UT Martin's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UT Martin's 2025 Expected Record: -
UT Martin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
UT Martin's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
UT Martin's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average OVC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UT Martin: Missouri State: -9.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UT Martin: Missouri State: -12.0

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -9.535 #121
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95 #93
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 18.02 #121
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.0 #114
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #108
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #110

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UT Martin Scoring
Offense: 11.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.3
Defense: 37 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

UT Martin's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri State 27
UT Martin 21

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
UT Martin 24
Missouri State 23

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Missouri State 31
UT Martin 18

Total Points: 49

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.5
Defense: 25.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.5

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Missouri State	42	UT Martin	10	Missouri State -14.0	Missouri State	55.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri State	1	1	0 Overs
UT Martin	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#NR) UTM at (#121) MOST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTM	MOST
Power RatePwr	NR	#121
SP+SP+	NR	#114
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#109
OffenseOff	NR	#90
DefenseDef	NR	#109
Spec TeamsST	NR	#106
TalentTal	NR	#131
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#38

UT Martin Injury Report

Missouri State Notes(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
Missouri State Injury Report

UT Martin on Offense


CategoryCat	UTM Off	MOST Def
Perf GradePerf	NR	#109
SuccessSuc	NR	#116
ExplosiveExp	NR	#54
PPAPPA	NR	#103
PowerPwr	NR	#121
SP+SP+	NR	#110
Pts POPPO	NR	#87
HavocHav	NR	#70

UT Martin Run Game


CategoryCat	UTM Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	NR	#125
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#77
Run ExplRExp	NR	#62
PPAExp	NR	#76
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#19
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#70
TackleTak	-	#82

UT Martin Pass Game


CategoryCat	UTM Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#123
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#22
PPAExp	NR	#104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#95
F7 HavocF7	NR	#117
DB HavocDB	NR	#16

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	UTM Def
Perf GradePerf	#90	NR
SuccessSuc	#123	NR
ExplosiveExp	#1	NR
PPAPPA	#104	NR
PowerPwr	#93	NR
SP+SP+	#108	NR
Pts POPPO	#100	NR
HavocHav	#136	NR

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	UTM Def
Run GameRun	#104	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	NR
Run ExplRExp	#52	NR
PPAExp	#122	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#136	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	UTM Def
Pass GamePass	#65	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#105	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#10	NR
PPAExp	#77	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#45	NR
F7 HavocF7	#136	NR
DB HavocDB	#135	NR

Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UTM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 83° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Missouri State -14.0 (55.5)
Missouri State won vs UT Martin this year (42-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

UTM's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jase Bauer (Tr)	169	236	72%	1595	8	2	6.8
Julian Calvez	15	22	68%	104	1	0	4.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Thomas Ansley	100	487	2	4.9	25
Jase Bauer (Tr)	111	409	9	3.7	50
John Gentry	89	381	1	4.3	26
Chris Franklin	64	353	2	5.5	66

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryce Bailey	36	464	4	12.9	75
Phaizon Wilson (Tr)	27	315	1	11.7	29
Hyatt Timosciek	15	157	0	10.5	34
Scottie Alexander	16	150	0	9.4	18

View UT Martin's Full Roster

UTM's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jacob Stevenson	20	1	0	0
Jabaree Dawkins	13	3	1	0
Tah Mac Bright	13	2	1	1
Shamari Weir	12	3	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Keyshawn Johnson	10	5	3	0
Shamari Weir	12	3	2	0
Jabaree Dawkins	13	3	1	0
Toby Camp	10	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
JaMichael McGoy	7	0	0	3
Joel Castleberry	7	0	0	1
Tah Mac Bright	13	2	1	1

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	152	239	64%	1927	15	8	8.1
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	125	598	4	4.8	50
Ramone Green Jr.	33	189	0	5.7	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ramone Green Jr.	22	361	2	16.4	76
Alred Luke	27	360	2	13.3	44
Jmariyae Robinson	26	350	4	13.5	52
Tristian Gardner	23	349	3	15.2	42

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Lloyd	48	3	1	0	1
Kanye Young	48	4	1	5	3
Maguire Neal	46	0	0	0	4
Thomas Anderson	46	3	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mitchell Toney	22	5	3	6	2
Caleb Dietlin	13	3	3	4	0
Davon Townley Jr.	11	2	2	1	3
Jared Lloyd	48	3	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	14	1	0	9
Maguire Neal	46	0	0	4
Thomas Anderson	46	3	1	4