Missouri State at Marshall - 2025 Matchup Preview

Missouri State Bears at Marshall Thundering Herd

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Marshall -7.0 (53.5) (-410) Open: -10.0 | 56.5
Missouri State 21 - Marshall: 20

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

MOST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Marshall -7 (SP+ MRSH -3)
Projected Score: MOST: 23 - MRSH: 30 (54)
MRSH Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 598 miles, 1 hrs behind

Thundering Herd (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Gibson (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)

Matchup
Schedules
MOST Players
MRSH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Marshall's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Marshall at Georgia	+39.5	55.5	L 7 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Marshall vs Missouri State	-7.0	53.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/13	Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky	-14.5	49.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Marshall at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	46.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Marshall at Louisiana	-2.5	47.5	L 51 - 54	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Marshall vs Old Dominion	+14.5	57.5	W 48 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Marshall vs Texas State	+3.0	65.5	W 40 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30	Marshall at Coastal Carolina	-7.5	55.5	L 27 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/8	Marshall vs James Madison	+13.5	53.5	L 23 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Marshall at Georgia State	-9.5	59.5	W 30 - 18	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Marshall at App State	-3.5	57.5	L 24 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/29	Marshall vs Georgia Southern	-10.5	61.5	L 19 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Marshall's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST	#67 (.18)	39% (105)	25.6	37% (124)	2.49 (131)	114	42% (60)	280	3.69 (69)	#113 (.23)	43% (84)	28.8	43% (72)	43% (90)	3.89 (92)	66.5	1.4	1.2
MRSH	#58 (.19)	45% (37)	30.8	43% (68)	3.05 (47)	198	48% (17)	208	3.89 (53)	#65 (.16)	39% (33)	30.3	37% (12)	42% (73)	3.62 (64)	59.9	1.3	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MRSH	#60 (.21)	43% (66)		45% (47)	3.35 (18)	203	40% (88)	181	3.93 (66)	#47 (.13)	40% (46)		43% (75)	37% (21)	3.87 (79)	42.5	0.7	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Offense	13	25.6	22.5	39.3%	3.69	1.4	20	393	114	280	3.6	42%	56%	37%	42%	24%	.18
MRSH Defense	12	30.3	24.7	38.9%	3.62	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	37%	42%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Defense	13	28.8	31.3	42.7%	3.89	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	43%	15%	.23
MRSH Offense	12	30.8	31.3	45.1%	3.89	1.3	21	406	198	208	4.8	57%	42%	43%	48%	13%	.19

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri State	13	31:20	20.5	36%	57%	7.6	66.5	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.8	0	29.5
Marshall	12	30:05	21.3	35%	44%	6.8	59.9	1.3	1.8	6.1	2.3	3	32.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Offense	13	42% (124)	37% (124)	31.7	113.7	3.6	12 (122)	.03 (113)	2.49 (131)	61% (126)	16% (135)	1.07 (29)
MRSH Defense	12	51% (76)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.04 (28)	2.6 (16)	63% (17)	10% (53)	0.99 (88)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Defense	13	48% (47)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.16 (102)	2.76 (48)	83% (129)	8% (119)	1.03 (102)
MRSH Offense	12	57% (19)	43% (68)	41.4	198.2	4.8	23 (40)	.05 (100)	3.05 (47)	63% (120)	8% (38)	0.85 (119)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Offense	13	56% (17)	42% (60)	21.3	33.5	279.7	8.4	13.1	30 (75)	11 (88)	.33 (40)	1.8 (8)	36% (128)	30% (77)	.26 (85)	8% (130)	2.2 (13)
MRSH Defense	12	48% (59)	42% (73)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (12)	.33 (109)	1.8 (133)	34% (37)	29% (66)	.21 (35)	6% (81)	1.9 (42)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Defense	13	50% (86)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.33 (108)	1.6 (71)	30% (90)	27% (33)	.33 (87)	7% (20)	2.3 (130)
MRSH Offense	12	42% (117)	48% (17)	18.2	27.9	207.9	7.5	11.4	18 (50)	6 (7)	.38 (28)	1.5 (84)	28% (23)	31% (61)	.31 (65)	5% (25)	2.1 (33)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -12.54 #121
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95 #87
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 18.49 #127
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6 #99
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #80
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -12.54 Marshall: -3.78

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -8.6 Marshall: -5.2

Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: -3.78 #96
Marshall's Offense Rating: 4.53 #94
Marshall's Defense Rating: 11.89 #93
2025 Talent Rating: 608.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Marshall's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Marshall's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.2 #89
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #54
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #121

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Marshall 30
Missouri State 23

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Marshall 33
Missouri State 18

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Marshall 31
Missouri State 26

Total Points: 57

Marshall Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Marshall's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Marshall	20	Missouri State	21	Marshall -7.0	Missouri State	53.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Marshall	0	0	0 Overs
Missouri State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#121) MOST at (#96) MRSH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MOST	MRSH
Power RatePwr	#121	#96
SP+SP+	#99	#89
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#57
OffenseOff	#65	#80
DefenseDef	#100	#31
Spec TeamsST	#133	#106
TalentTal	#131	#92
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#65

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

Marshall Notes(10/19) Avg 44 PPG in last 5, won last 2 as underdogs
(10/12) Off scorching hot, killed ODU, pass/run 220+
(9/21) Killed M Tenn, QB Del Rio-Wilson good/efficient
(8/30) Turner/Long/Rio-Wilson all played vs UGA
(8/26) QB1 Del Rio-Wilson, J. Long, Z. Turner listed OR
(8/1) Year 0 for Gibson & staff, 62 new players
(8/1) WR added 11 portals! Scattered not great
(8/1) Def complete rebuild. 30 portal adds (of 59!)
(8/1) HC Huff pushed out, opted out of bowl
(8/1) New OC Smith was RichRod's OC @ Jax St
(3/22) 3/4 of roster is new, along with staff
(3/22) QB Rio-Wilson(SU), Turner(JS), Shockey(NC St)
Marshall Injury Report

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	MRSH Def
Perf GradePerf	#65	#31
SuccessSuc	#105	#33
ExplosiveExp	#1	#129
PPAPPA	#67	#65
PowerPwr	#87	#93
SP+SP+	#80	#121
Pts POPPO	#69	#64
HavocHav	#136	#67

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	MRSH Def
Run GameRun	#107	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#12
Run ExplRExp	#29	#88
PPAExp	#113	#28
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#135	#25
TackleTak	-	#35

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	MRSH Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	#73
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#133
PPAExp	#40	#109
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#32	#87
F7 HavocF7	#135	#53
DB HavocDB	#130	#81

Marshall on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	MOST Def
Perf GradePerf	#80	#100
SuccessSuc	#37	#84
ExplosiveExp	#120	#102
PPAPPA	#58	#113
PowerPwr	#94	#127
SP+SP+	#54	#108
Pts POPPO	#53	#92
HavocHav	#30	#82

Marshall Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#94	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#68	#72
Run ExplRExp	#119	#102
PPAExp	#100	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#103	-
OL YdsOLY	#47	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#47	#61
TackleTak	-	#105

Marshall Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#17	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#71
PPAExp	#28	#108
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#69	#66
F7 HavocF7	#38	#119
DB HavocDB	#25	#20

Program Comparison
MRSH 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 75° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Marshall -7.0 (53.5)
Missouri State won at Marshall this year (21-20)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5

MRSH's OC Rod Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Tr)	171	256	67%	2043	17	5	8.0
Zion Turner (Tr)	40	59	68%	409	1	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Tr)	159	658	6	4.1	24
Antwan Roberts	90	512	4	5.7	54
Michael Allen (Tr)	77	385	4	5.0	68
Joshon Barbie	56	249	5	4.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demarcus Lacey (Tr)	65	769	5	11.8	68
De'Andre Tamarez (Tr)	32	395	2	12.3	44
Toby Payne	36	387	3	10.8	48
Adrian Norton (Tr)	28	383	5	13.7	41

View Marshall's Full Roster

MRSH's DC Shannon Morrison (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Boogie Trotter	73	3	1	3	5
Kerion Martin (Tr)	67	6	2	7	1
Cameron Smith (Tr)	66	5	2	3	8
Javae Gilmore (Tr)	56	10	2	8	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braydin Ward	18	6	5	4	2
Paul Hutson III (Tr)	37	6	3	3	0
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)	51	6	3	4	2
Jamaal Whyce (Tr)	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Smith (Tr)	66	5	2	3	8
Boogie Trotter	73	3	1	3	5
Daytione Smith	50	2	0	0	4