Missouri State at Marshall - 2025 Matchup Preview
Missouri State logo Missouri State Bears at Marshall Thundering HerdMarshall logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Marshall -7.0 (53.5) (-410)  Open: -10.0 | 56.5
Missouri State 21 - Marshall: 20

 
Bears (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 15 - 40 (17 - 47 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 7.7 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
MOST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Marshall -7   (SP+ MRSH -12)

Projected Score: MOST: 23 - MRSH: 30 (53)
MRSH Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MOST Travel: 598 miles, 1 hrs behind
Thundering Herd (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Tony Gibson (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Missouri State at USC+34.559.5L 13 - 73ON
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+7.053.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.560.5L 10 - 28UY
Sat 9/20 Missouri State vs UT Martin-5.5
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+12
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-1.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State+6.5
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International+8
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+18.5
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP+8.5
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+1.5
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech+8.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
Marshall's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Marshall at Georgia+39.555.5L 7 - 45UY
Sat 9/6 Marshall vs Missouri State-7.053.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 9/13 Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky-14.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Marshall at Middle Tennessee-2.546.5
Sat 9/27 Marshall at Louisiana+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Marshall vs Old Dominion+10.5
Sat 10/18 Marshall vs Texas State+9.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30 Marshall at Coastal Carolina+2
Sat 11/8 Marshall vs James Madison+14.5
Sat 11/15 Marshall at Georgia State-4.5
Sat 11/22 Marshall at App State+6
Sat 11/29 Marshall vs Georgia Southern-7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Marshall's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST#76 (.19)36% (121)14.731% (129)2.01 (130)6840% (92)2741.63 (131)#133 (.43)47% (113)40.344% (97)49% (117)5 (121)752.31.3
MRSH#126 (-)27% (136)21.729% (133)2.35 (120)17621% (134)1093.4 (101)#122 (.33)45% (108)24.345% (98)47% (109)5 (121)52.30.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MRSH#60 (.21)43% (66)45% (47)3.35 (18)20340% (88)1813.93 (66)#47 (.13)40% (46)43% (75)37% (21)3.87 (79)42.50.71.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Offense314.71735.7%1.632.316342682742.246%54%31%40%26%.19
MRSH Defense324.31445.3%51 - - - - - 51%48%45%47%16%.33
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Defense340.346.546.5%51.3 - - - - - 52%45%44%49%13%.43
MRSH Offense321.72926.9%3.40.7132841761094.462%36%29%21%15%-

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri State332:511624%67%7752.31.34.31.3029.8
Marshall328:021327%25%6.352.30.718.33.7024.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Offense346% (96)31% (129)31.3682.20 (135)-.09 (129)2.01 (130)60% (103)20% (136)1.21 (28)
MRSH Defense351% (79)45% (98) - - - - .1 (88)2.68 (57)67% (53)11% (56)1.07 (94)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Defense352% (93)44% (97) - - - - .21 (110)3.24 (115)50% (19)7% (110)0.92 (67)
MRSH Offense362% (13)29% (133)40175.74.46 (49)-.08 (128)2.35 (120)0% (136)8% (58)0.67 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Offense354% (42)40% (92)21.732.72748.412.75 (54)6 (132).44 (36)2.2 (3)41% (132)35% (50).4 (55)6% (86)2.3 (28)
MRSH Defense348% (56)47% (109) - - - - - - 3 (28).57 (128)1.9 (124)34% (60)35% (106).34 (90)5% (88)1.9 (63)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Defense345% (37)49% (117) - - - - - - 2 (56).67 (133)1.9 (123)29% (108)32% (86).66 (128)6% (62)2.8 (132)
MRSH Offense336% (126)21% (134)10.719.7108.75.510.22 (102)1 (23).09 (118)2 (5)36% (116)11% (136).09 (118)7% (104)3.3 (1)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -15.03 #116
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 4.83 #106
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 19.86 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #129
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #106
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -15.03   Marshall: -10.995

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -21.2   Marshall: -9.3




Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: -10.995 #123
Marshall's Offense Rating: 1.93 #123
Marshall's Defense Rating: 19.62 #118
2025 Talent Rating: 608.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Marshall's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Marshall's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #96
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 40.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 46.5

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Marshall 30
Missouri State 23


Total Points: 53

Marshall Scoring
Offense: 21.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 14

Marshall's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Marshall20Missouri State21Missouri StateMarshall -7.0Missouri State53.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Marshall000 Overs
Missouri State111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#116) Missouri State Info
Power Rating: -15.03 #116
Offense Rating: 4.83 #106
Defense Rating: 19.86 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #129
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #135
Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.63 PPO
Awful Run Success 31%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Missouri State has lost 1 straight
Missouri State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Missouri State Notes
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
(3/26) Def limited, lots of shootouts LY. Some exp
(3/26) HC Beard in his 3rd, improved to 8-4 LY.
(3/26) Passing offense was 2nd in FCS 39 PPG LY
(3/26) Bears were a middling FCS program, why FBS?

Missouri State Highlights
Missouri State offense is explosive (#2)

Missouri State Deficiencies
Missouri State has a really bad Offense
Missouri State has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Missouri State Can Not Run the Ball (#132)
Missouri State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Missouri State offense is really bad (#121)
Missouri State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#135)
Missouri State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#131)
Missouri State run game is really bad (#129)
Missouri State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Missouri State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Missouri State has a bad defense (#113)
Missouri State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#112)
Missouri State Does Not Stuff Runs (#123)
Missouri State has a bad defensive line (#115)
Missouri State has a bad red zone defense (#121)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMRSHMOST
OverallOver#82#103
OffenseOff#99#102
DefenseDef#63#89
Special TeamsST#108#102
PassingPass#90#70
RushingRush#93#104
Run BlockRBLK#83#116
Pass BlockPBLK#76#80
Route RunningWR Rt#95#63
TacklingTkl#67#113
Run DefenseR Def#32#73
Pass Rush DefPRush#71#106
Coverage DefCov#87#75

Rematch from Week 2
Marshall -7.0 (53.5)
Missouri State won at Marshall this year (21-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MOST | MRSH
Depth Chart: MOST | MRSH
Rosters: MOST | MRSH
(#123) Marshall Info
Power Rating: -10.995 #123
Offense Rating: 1.93 #123
Defense Rating: 19.62 #118
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #96
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103
Talent Rating: 608.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 36%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 27%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Awful Run Success 29%
Awful Pass Success 21%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Awful in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 47%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Marshall has lost 1 straight
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Marshall Notes
(8/26) QB1 Del Rio-Wilson, J. Long, Z. Turner listed OR
(8/1) Year 0 for Gibson & staff, 62 new players
(8/1) WR added 11 portals! Scattered not great
(8/1) Def complete rebuild. 30 portal adds (of 59!)
(8/1) HC Huff pushed out, opted out of bowl
(8/1) New OC Smith was RichRod's OC @ Jax St
(3/22) 3/4 of roster is new, along with staff
(3/22) QB Rio-Wilson(SU), Turner(JS), Shockey(NC St)
(3/22) RB Houston back, Barbie (McNeese) added
(3/22) OL 2/5 back, 6 portal adds.

Marshall Highlights
Marshall Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Marshall Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#13)
Marshall has a great TO Margin (#28)
Marshall defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Marshall Deficiencies
Marshall offense is really bad (#136)
Marshall offense is not Explosive (#104)
Marshall Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#129)
Marshall offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#101)
Marshall run game is really bad (#133)
Marshall pass game is really bad (#134)
Marshall offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Marshall has a bad defense (#108)
Marshall gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#122)
Marshall has a bad red zone defense (#121)


  
Missouri State's OC Nick Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark609265%781568.5
Cole Feuerbacher44100%12003.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)4214303.423
Ramone Green Jr.103403.412
Jmariyae Robinson121021.021
Reggie Branch42005.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ramone Green Jr.9164118.257
Jmariyae Robinson9164118.252
Alred Luke10129112.927
Tristian Gardner7104114.933

View Missouri State's Full Roster
Missouri State's DC L.D. Scott
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maguire Neal170001
Thomas Anderson150001
Christian Ford (Tr)150000
Jared Lloyd142100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mitchell Toney93211
Caleb Dietlin41100
Jared Lloyd142100
Maguire Neal170001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)80003
Davon Townley Jr.40002
Mitchell Toney93211

Marshall's OC Rod Smith
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zion Turner (Tr)193161%183015.9
JacQai Long41625%25001.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zion Turner (Tr)1711016.526
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)1810025.637
Joshon Barbie229614.428
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Tr)166213.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw (Tr)579015.844
Toby Payne561012.226
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)341113.730
Antonio Harmon (Tr)134034.034

View Marshall's Full Roster
Marshall's DC Shannon Morrison
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kerion Martin (Tr)264220
Cannon Lewis (Tr)201100
Cameron Smith (Tr)154101
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)143222
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braydin Ward73342
Kerion Martin (Tr)264220
Tyas Martin (Tr)72200
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)143222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braydin Ward73342
Daytione Smith50002
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)143222