USC at TCU - 2025 Matchup Preview
USC logo (#16)USC Trojans vs TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Tuesday, December 30th 2025 (9:00 PM EST)
USC -4.5 (56.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
TCU 30 - USC: 27  (Valero Alamo Bowl)

 
Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Game in Dome
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: USC -8.5  (SP+ USC -9)

Projected Score: USC: 33 - TCU: 24 (57)
USC Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
USC Travel: 1209 miles, 2 hrs behind
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
USC's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 USC vs Missouri State-34.559.5W 73 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 USC vs Georgia Southern-29.061.5W 59 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 USC at Purdue-20.559.5W 33 - 17UN
Sat 9/20 USC vs Michigan State-18.555.5W 45 - 31ON
Sat 9/27 USC at Illinois-6.562.5L 32 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 USC vs Michigan-3.058.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 USC at Notre Dame+10.560.5L 24 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 USC at Nebraska-4.559.5W 21 - 17UN
Fri 11/7 USC vs Northwestern-14.554.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 USC vs Iowa-6.548.5W 26 - 21UN
Sat 11/22 USC at Oregon+10.559.5L 27 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 USC vs UCLA-21.059.0W 29 - 10UN
Tue 12/30 USC vs TCU-4.556.5L 27 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.566.5W 42 - 36OY
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-16.555.5W 23 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-7.558.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+3.051.5L 13 - 44ON
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-1.555.5W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-3.058.5W 45 - 23OY
Tue 12/30 TCU vs USC+4.556.5W 30 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#6 (.35)50% (7)35.848% (18)3.25 (21)16153% (4)2744.72 (8)#59 (.14)45% (121)2347% (122)43% (88)3.37 (42)50.41.11.3
TCU#43 (.21)44% (48)30.742% (89)2.64 (120)12347% (20)2704.04 (37)#60 (.15)41% (59)25.339% (36)43% (85)3.46 (55)55.81.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1335.827.450.3%4.721.1224351612745.448%50%48%53%13%.35
TCU Defense1325.324.241%3.461.5 - - - - - 48%50%39%43%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense132328.845.5%3.371.3 - - - - - 48%50%47%43%16%.14
TCU Offense1330.73644.3%4.041.521393123270446%52%42%47%15%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1327:2322.252%64%5.350.41.11.352.2226.9
TCU1326:4220.647%63%655.81.51.54.91.8130.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1348% (83)48% (18)30160.55.428 (16).21 (24)3.25 (21)79% (24)7% (22)0.95 (76)
TCU Defense1348% (50)39% (36) - - - - .07 (53)2.9 (73)70% (61)9% (75)0.87 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1348% (51)47% (122) - - - - .11 (70)3.27 (125)65% (25)11% (35)0.79 (6)
TCU Offense1346% (101)42% (89)30.9122.8417 (60).02 (116)2.64 (120)77% (36)9% (64)0.81 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1350% (56)53% (4)20.230274.59.213.625 (22)8 (34).51 (4)1.6 (42)26% (10)38% (10).52 (10)6% (68)2.2 (18)
TCU Defense1350% (87)43% (85) - - - - - - 12 (22).28 (84)1.6 (103)31% (72)32% (95).34 (94)6% (81)2.1 (98)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1350% (89)43% (88) - - - - - - 11 (12).17 (38)1.6 (76)29% (118)32% (100).28 (65)5% (104)2.1 (104)
TCU Offense1352% (36)47% (20)21.332.3270.28.412.729 (3)14 (108).43 (19)1.6 (32)32% (88)33% (29).42 (26)6% (73)2.1 (29)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 22.90  #13
USC's Offense Rating: 26.26  #9
USC's Defense Rating: 3.36  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40%  #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3  #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4  #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5  #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 22.90   TCU: 11.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 17.3   TCU: 8.2




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 11.36  #33
TCU's Offense Rating: 16.96  #30
TCU's Defense Rating: 2.44  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2  #39
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #37
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #48

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
USC 33
TCU 24


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 30
USC 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
TCU 30
USC 28

Total Points: 58
TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/30TCU30USC27USC -4.5TCU56.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU111 Overs
USC000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

USC Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Alamo Bowl USC vs TCU-4.556.5L 27 - 30
2024Vegas Bowl USC vs Texas A&M+3.556.5W 35 - 31
2023Holiday Bowl USC vs Louisville+4.558.0W 42 - 28
2022Cotton Bowl USC vs Tulane-1.567.0L 45 - 46
2019Holiday Bowl USC vs Iowa-1.554.5L 24 - 49
TCU Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Alamo Bowl TCU vs USC+4.556.5W 30 - 27
2024Mexico Bowl TCU vs Louisiana-9.561.0W 34 - 3
2022CFP Nat'l Title TCU vs Georgia+13.562.0L 7 - 65
2022CFP Semifinal TCU vs Michigan+8.056.0W 51 - 45
  
(#13) USC at (#33) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSCTCU
Power RatePwr #13 #33
SP+SP+ #17 #39
Perf GradeGrade #33 #40
OffenseOff #18 #35
DefenseDef #79 #41
Spec TeamsST #122 #67
TalentTal #21 #29
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #31
USC Notes
(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report
TCU Notes
(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffTCU Def
Perf GradePerf #18 #41
SuccessSuc #7 #59
ExplosiveExp #37 #79
PPAPPA #6 #60
PowerPwr #9 #33
SP+SP+ #11 #48
Pts POPPO #8 #55
HavocHav #34 #79
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #22 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #36
Run ExplRExp #76 #22
PPAExp #24 #53
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #73
Stuff RateStuff #32 #103
TackleTak -  #10
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #23 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #4 #85
Pass ExplPExl #42 #103
PPAExp #4 #84
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #107 #106
F7 HavocF7 #22 #75
DB HavocDB #68 #81
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffUSC Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #79
SuccessSuc #48 #121
ExplosiveExp #48 #13
PPAPPA #43 #59
PowerPwr #30 #36
SP+SP+ #37 #35
Pts POPPO #37 #42
HavocHav #61 #63
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #72 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #122
Run ExplRExp #124 #6
PPAExp #116 #70
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #125
Stuff RateStuff #121 #85
TackleTak -  #26
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #34 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #20 #88
Pass ExplPExl #32 #76
PPAExp #19 #38
Pass Block/RushP Blk #40 #84
F7 HavocF7 #64 #35
DB HavocDB #73 #104
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 46°
Rematch from Week 1
USC 4.5 (56.5)
TCU won vs USC this year (30-27)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava24737366%34312389.2
Husan Longstreet131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
King Miller13187376.775
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
Eli Sanders (Tr)4425825.920
Jayden Maiava5115062.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon7911561114.674
Ja'Kobi Lane49745415.259
Lake McRee30450415.064
Tanook Hines28398214.251

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desman Stephens II801010
Eric Gentry717312
Christian Pierce582103
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)513103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby236530
Kameryn Fountain308400
Jide Abasiri244420
Anthony Lucas374370
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcelles Williams330004
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)40004
Christian Pierce582103

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover27241366%347229138.4
Ken Seals4667%24014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne9755045.751
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)9744334.675
Trent Battle6234565.665
Jon Denman4414723.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister6411211017.585
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)54730713.569
Joseph Manjack41551313.451
D'Andre Rogers3230029.439

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr11910452
Jamel Johnson893003
Namdi Obiazor814211
Bud Clark542115
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr11910452
Devean Deal509484
Kylin Jackson (Tr)265321
Paul Oyewale248210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vernon Glover351006
Bud Clark542115
Devean Deal509484