USC at TCU - 2025 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, December 30th 2025 (9:00 PM EST)
USC -4.5 (56.5) (0) Open: 0.0
TCU 30 - USC: 27 (Valero Alamo Bowl)

Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: USC -4 (SP+ USC -8.5)
Projected Score: USC: 31 - TCU: 27 (57)
USC Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
USC Travel: 1205 miles, 2 hrs behind

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
USC Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	USC vs Missouri State	-34.5	59.5	W 73 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-29.0	61.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-20.5	59.5	W 33 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-18.5	55.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	-6.5	62.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	-3.0	58.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+10.5	60.5	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	-4.5	59.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/7	USC vs Northwestern	-14.5	54.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-6.5	48.5	W 26 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+10.5	59.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-21.0	59.0	W 29 - 10	U	N
Tue 12/30	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

TCU's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/1	TCU at North Carolina	-3.0	59.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	TCU vs Abilene Christian	-42.5	60.5	W 42 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/20	TCU vs SMU	-6.5	63.5	W 35 - 24	U	Y
Fri 9/26	TCU at Arizona State	+2.5	54.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/4	TCU vs Colorado	-13.5	57.5	W 35 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/11	TCU at Kansas State	-3.0	54.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	TCU vs Baylor	-3.5	66.5	W 42 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/25	TCU at West Virginia	-16.5	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	TCU vs Iowa State	-7.5	58.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/15	TCU at BYU	+3.0	51.5	L 13 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/22	TCU at Houston	-1.5	55.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/29	TCU vs Cincinnati	-3.0	58.5	W 45 - 23	O	Y
Tue 12/30	TCU vs USC	+4.5	56.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)	35.8	52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)	23	44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)	30.7	45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)	25.3	46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	35.8	27.4	48.4%	3.76	1.4	21	408	138	269	5.5	40%	60%	52%	46%	18%	.24
TCU Defense	13	25.3	24.2	41.5%	3.82	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	46%	36%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	23	28.8	43.8%	3.64	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	44%	14%	.18
TCU Offense	13	30.7	36	47.1%	4.46	1.6	21	400	106	293	3.9	42%	58%	45%	49%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	28:12	21.3	45%	47%	5.3	46	1.4	1.2	3.9	1.5	1	33.7
TCU	13	26:11	21	44%	80%	5.2	49.7	1.6	1.1	4.5	1.8	1	31.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	40% (126)	52% (10)	25.2	138.4	5.5	19 (73)	.23 (21)	3.49 (9)	85% (6)	8% (24)	0.89 (106)
TCU Defense	13	53% (95)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.22 (118)	3.26 (104)	89% (134)	9% (105)	1.02 (87)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	46% (22)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.18 (96)	3.17 (92)	76% (81)	7% (127)	1 (77)
TCU Offense	13	42% (119)	45% (53)	27.6	106.4	3.9	26 (36)	.08 (95)	2.95 (85)	73% (70)	8% (36)	0.94 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	60% (9)	46% (26)	24.1	38	269.2	7.1	11.2	25 (31)	12 (85)	.25 (74)	1.5 (108)	29% (24)	36% (18)	.4 (36)	10% (134)	2 (74)
TCU Defense	13	47% (41)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.18 (40)	1.5 (57)	34% (42)	27% (19)	.19 (22)	6% (81)	1.8 (26)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	53% (113)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.2 (49)	1.3 (4)	28% (122)	27% (27)	.14 (6)	7% (42)	1.8 (8)
TCU Offense	13	58% (19)	49% (9)	23.5	34.9	293.2	8.4	12.5	25 (31)	10 (63)	.47 (5)	1.6 (75)	31% (57)	33% (47)	.4 (39)	5% (38)	2.1 (55)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 13.95 #26
USC's Offense Rating: 23.87 #16
USC's Defense Rating: 9.92 #45
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9 #16
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.9 #9
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 13.95 TCU: 11.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 16.9 TCU: 8.3

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 11.225 #25
TCU's Offense Rating: 21.60 #22
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.45 #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3 #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 31
TCU 27

Projected Total Points: 57

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/30	TCU	30	USC	27	USC -4.5	TCU	56.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	1	1	1 Overs
USC	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

USC Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Alamo Bowl	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30
2024	Vegas Bowl	USC vs Texas A&M	+3.5	56.5	W 35 - 31
2023	Holiday Bowl	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28
2022	Cotton Bowl	USC vs Tulane	-1.5	67.0	L 45 - 46
2019	Holiday Bowl	USC vs Iowa	-1.5	54.5	L 24 - 49

TCU Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Alamo Bowl	TCU vs USC	+4.5	56.5	W 30 - 27
2024	Mexico Bowl	TCU vs Louisiana	-9.5	61.0	W 34 - 3
2022	CFP Nat'l Title	TCU vs Georgia	+13.5	62.0	L 7 - 65
2022	CFP Semifinal	TCU vs Michigan	+8.0	56.0	W 51 - 45

(#26) USC at (#25) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	TCU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#26	#25
SP+SP+	#16	#37
Perf GradeGrade	#30	#26
OffenseOff	#17	#34
DefenseDef	#73	#27
Spec TeamsST	#124	#73
TalentTal	#21	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#31

USC Notes(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report

TCU Notes(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report

USC on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	TCU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#27
SuccessSuc	#11	#67
ExplosiveExp	#91	#52
PPAPPA	#41	#82
PowerPwr	#16	#33
SP+SP+	#9	#50
Pts POPPO	#85	#72
HavocHav	#101	#102

USC Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#102
Run ExplRExp	#106	#87
PPAExp	#21	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#110	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#87
TackleTak	-	#8

USC Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#57
PPAExp	#74	#40
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#103
F7 HavocF7	#24	#105
DB HavocDB	#134	#81

TCU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	USC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#34	#73
SuccessSuc	#20	#94
ExplosiveExp	#45	#24
PPAPPA	#18	#78
PowerPwr	#22	#45
SP+SP+	#30	#36
Pts POPPO	#20	#49
HavocHav	#28	#105

TCU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#60	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#78
Run ExplRExp	#85	#77
PPAExp	#95	#96
Run BlockR Blk	#69	-
OL YdsOLY	#85	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#120
TackleTak	-	#30

TCU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#9	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#4
PPAExp	#5	#49
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#32	#64
F7 HavocF7	#36	#127
DB HavocDB	#38	#42

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
USC 4.5 (56.5)
TCU won vs USC this year (30-27)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat USC last year (30-27)

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	265	403	66%	3711	24	10	9.2
Husan Longstreet	13	15	87%	103	1	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
King Miller	156	972	8	6.2	75
Waymond Jordan	88	576	5	6.5	40
Eli Sanders (Tr)	44	258	2	5.9	20
Jayden Maiava	54	157	6	2.9	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	79	1156	11	14.6	74
Ja'Kobi Lane	49	745	4	15.2	59
Tanook Hines	34	561	2	16.5	51
Lake McRee	30	450	4	15.0	64

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desman Stephens II	86	3	0	1	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2
Christian Pierce	64	3	1	0	3
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	51	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameryn Fountain	37	11	6	1	0
Braylan Shelby	27	6	5	4	0
Jide Abasiri	26	4	4	2	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)	4	0	0	4
DeCarlos Nicholson	42	1	1	4
Marcelles Williams	37	0	0	4

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	272	413	66%	3472	29	13	8.4
Ken Seals	33	46	72%	282	1	2	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremy Payne	110	623	5	5.7	51
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)	97	443	3	4.6	75
Trent Battle	64	349	6	5.5	65
Jon Denman	50	178	3	3.6	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric McAlister	72	1190	10	16.5	85
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)	54	730	7	13.5	69
Joseph Manjack	44	579	3	13.2	51
D'Andre Rogers	34	319	2	9.4	39

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	130	11	4	6	2
Jamel Johnson	96	3	0	0	3
Namdi Obiazor	88	4	2	1	1
Bud Clark	56	2	1	1	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	130	11	4	6	2
Devean Deal	53	9	4	9	4
Kylin Jackson (Tr)	26	5	3	2	1
Paul Oyewale	31	8	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bud Clark	56	2	1	1	7
Vernon Glover	41	1	0	0	6
Devean Deal	53	9	4	9	4