Georgia Southern at USC - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
USC -29.0 (61.5) (-10000) Open: -28.0 | 64.0
USC 59 - Georgia Southern: 20

Eagles (7 - 6) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (20 - 18)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (20 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)

Wind: 15 MPH
GASO 2nd straight Road Game
USC 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: USC -34 (SP+ USC -29)
Projected Score: GASO: 13 - USC: 47 (61)
USC Win prob: 96% | Cover: 42%
GASO Travel: 2102 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
GASO Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Georgia Southern at Fresno State	+2.5	54.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/6	Georgia Southern at USC	+29.0	61.5	L 20 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/13	Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State	-3.0	59.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Georgia Southern vs Maine	-22.0	57.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Georgia Southern at James Madison	+14.5	54.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Georgia Southern vs Georgia State	-6.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Georgia Southern at Arkansas State	-1.5	59.5	L 24 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	Georgia Southern at App State	+4.5	62.5	W 25 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina	-3.0	59.5	W 45 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion	+10.0	62.0	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/29	Georgia Southern at Marshall	+10.5	61.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Mon 12/29	Georgia Southern vs App State	-10.0	58.5	W 29 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	USC vs Missouri State	-34.5	59.5	W 73 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-29.0	61.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-20.5	59.5	W 33 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-18.5	55.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	-6.5	62.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	-3.0	58.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+10.5	60.5	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	-4.5	59.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/7	USC vs Northwestern	-14.5	54.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-6.5	48.5	W 26 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+10.5	59.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-21.0	59.0	W 29 - 10	U	N
Tue 12/30	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#39 (.21)	45% (41)	27.9	46% (43)	3.2 (22)	137	45% (36)	234	4.01 (40)	#133 (.3)	49% (133)	32.3	51% (134)	47% (125)	4.45 (130)	47.3	0.9	1.2
USC	#6 (.35)	50% (7)	35.8	48% (18)	3.25 (21)	161	53% (4)	274	4.72 (8)	#59 (.14)	45% (121)	23	47% (122)	43% (88)	3.37 (42)	50.4	1.1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)		46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)		47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Offense	13	27.9	19.5	45%	4.01	0.9	20	371	137	234	4.2	49%	49%	46%	45%	14%	.21
USC Defense	13	23	17.9	45.5%	3.37	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	47%	43%	16%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Defense	13	32.3	35.3	49.1%	4.45	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	51%	47%	15%	.3
USC Offense	13	35.8	43	50.3%	4.72	1.1	22	435	161	274	5.4	48%	50%	48%	53%	13%	.35

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia Southern	13	27:09	20.4	45%	53%	5	47.3	0.9	1.2	4.3	0.9	1	28.5
USC	13	27:23	22.2	52%	64%	5.3	50.4	1.1	1.3	5	2.2	2	26.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Offense	13	49% (75)	46% (43)	32.5	136.7	4.2	16 (60)	.16 (45)	3.2 (22)	73% (60)	9% (54)	0.92 (87)
USC Defense	13	48% (51)	47% (122)	-	-	-	-	.11 (70)	3.27 (125)	65% (25)	11% (35)	0.79 (6)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Defense	13	51% (86)	51% (134)	-	-	-	-	.28 (135)	3.4 (134)	74% (88)	9% (83)	1.07 (116)
USC Offense	13	48% (83)	48% (18)	30	160.5	5.4	28 (16)	.21 (24)	3.25 (21)	79% (24)	7% (22)	0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Offense	13	49% (66)	45% (36)	19.6	31.1	233.8	7.5	11.9	25 (33)	8 (88)	.3 (48)	1.6 (64)	29% (38)	36% (20)	.46 (17)	5% (30)	2.1 (59)
USC Defense	13	50% (89)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (12)	.17 (38)	1.6 (76)	29% (118)	32% (100)	.28 (65)	5% (104)	2.1 (104)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Defense	13	47% (55)	47% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (75)	.37 (117)	1.5 (54)	29% (105)	37% (133)	.36 (101)	6% (73)	1.8 (20)
USC Offense	13	50% (56)	53% (4)	20.2	30	274.5	9.2	13.6	25 (22)	8 (34)	.51 (4)	1.6 (42)	26% (10)	38% (10)	.52 (10)	6% (68)	2.2 (18)

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -11.87 #118
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 11.75 #53
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 23.62 #135
2025 Talent Rating: 586.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Georgia Southern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Georgia Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.3 #111
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1 #66
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #131

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -11.87 USC: 22.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -11.3 USC: 17.3

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 22.6 #13
USC's Offense Rating: 26.26 #9
USC's Defense Rating: 3.36 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.5
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Georgia Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 47
Georgia Southern 13

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 34
Georgia Southern 25

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
USC 37
Georgia Southern 22

Total Points: 59

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	USC	59	Georgia Southern	20	USC -29.0	USC	61.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	1	1	1 Overs
Georgia Southern	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#118) GASO at (#13) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GASO	USC
Power RatePwr	#118	#13
SP+SP+	#111	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#112	#33
OffenseOff	#61	#18
DefenseDef	#134	#79
Spec TeamsST	#115	#122
TalentTal	#99	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#18

Georgia Southern Notes(10/22) DL is statistically bottom 5 in CFB, line yds & havoc
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off Avg
(10/9) French 3 INT, team 12 flags, comeback short vs USM
(8/25) Will stay out West between @ Fresno & USC
(8/1) Two West coast games to open. Impact?
(8/1) QB French way to many TOs under pressure LY
(8/1) QB/RB/WR combo great potential as tops in SBC
(8/1) DBs could be strong TY but F7 has lots of ?
(7/12) Helton QBs are historically TO prone
(4/7) WR Brown (Aub) impressive. QB as good depth
(3/24) QB French back. Helton (WKU) added
(3/24) RB Arnold, Mbadinga exp'd. Gibbs big croot
Georgia Southern Injury Report

USC Notes(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report

Georgia Southern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#61	#79
SuccessSuc	#41	#121
ExplosiveExp	#67	#13
PPAPPA	#39	#59
PowerPwr	#53	#36
SP+SP+	#66	#35
Pts POPPO	#40	#42
HavocHav	#44	#63

Georgia Southern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#71	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#122
Run ExplRExp	#87	#6
PPAExp	#45	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#61	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#85
TackleTak	-	#26

Georgia Southern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#36	#88
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#76
PPAExp	#48	#38
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#84
F7 HavocF7	#54	#35
DB HavocDB	#30	#104

USC on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	GASO Def
Perf GradePerf	#18	#134
SuccessSuc	#7	#133
ExplosiveExp	#37	#82
PPAPPA	#6	#133
PowerPwr	#9	#135
SP+SP+	#11	#131
Pts POPPO	#8	#130
HavocHav	#34	#84

USC Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#22	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#134
Run ExplRExp	#76	#116
PPAExp	#24	#135
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	#134
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#116
TackleTak	-	#79

USC Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	#4	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#54
PPAExp	#4	#117
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#107	#133
F7 HavocF7	#22	#83
DB HavocDB	#68	#73

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

GASO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 73° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 2
USC -29.0 (61.5)
USC won vs Georgia Southern this year (59-20)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JC French	231	365	63%	2753	19	8	7.5
Turner Helton (Tr)	14	26	54%	74	1	0	2.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
OJ Arnold	133	885	5	6.7	62
JC French	121	277	6	2.3	21
David Mbadinga	49	196	1	4.0	16
Taeo Todd	26	102	0	3.9	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camden Brown (Tr)	63	1049	14	16.7	73
Marcus Sanders Jr.	45	725	4	16.1	52
Dalen Cobb	52	471	3	9.1	43
OJ Arnold	17	201	1	11.8	41

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jusfin Meyers	82	1	1	5
Brandon Tyson (Tr)	79	2	6	2
Brendan Harrington (Tr)	77	2	0	3
Ayden Jackson	71	4	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Stroud	31	15	7	6	2
Caleb Moore (Tr)	21	3	2	2	1
CJ Allen	16	2	1	1	0
Devin Collier	20	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tracy Hill Jr.	39	4	1	0	6
Jusfin Meyers	82	1	0	1	5
Elijah McDowell	8	0	0	0	4

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	247	373	66%	3431	23	8	9.2
Husan Longstreet	13	15	87%	103	1	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
King Miller	131	873	7	6.7	75
Waymond Jordan	88	576	5	6.5	40
Eli Sanders (Tr)	44	258	2	5.9	20
Jayden Maiava	51	150	6	2.9	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	79	1156	11	14.6	74
Ja'Kobi Lane	49	745	4	15.2	59
Lake McRee	30	450	4	15.0	64
Tanook Hines	28	398	2	14.2	51

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desman Stephens II	80	1	0	1	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2
Christian Pierce	58	2	1	0	3
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	51	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Braylan Shelby	23	6	5	3
Kameryn Fountain	30	8	4	0
Jide Abasiri	24	4	4	2
Anthony Lucas	37	4	3	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Marcelles Williams	33	0	0	4
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)	4	0	0	4
Christian Pierce	58	2	1	3