Western Kentucky at Missouri State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Missouri State Bears

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -3.5 (59.5) (-175) Open: -7.0
Western Kentucky 27 - Missouri State: 22 (Conference USA)

Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

MOST 3rd straight Home Game
MOST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -10 (SP+ WKU -9)
Projected Score: WKU: 33 - MOST: 23 (57)
WKU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 376 miles

Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (28 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
MOST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-9.5	60.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 8/30	Western Kentucky vs North Alabama	-27.5	60.5	W 55 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Western Kentucky at Toledo	+8.5	57.5	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Western Kentucky vs Nevada	-8.5	54.5	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Western Kentucky at Missouri State	-3.5	59.5	W 27 - 22	U	Y
Fri 10/3	Western Kentucky at Delaware	+2.5	62.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Western Kentucky vs Florida International	-9.5	55.5	L 6 - 25	U	N
Tue 10/21	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	+5.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-7.5	53.5	W 35 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-13.5	51.5	W 42 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Western Kentucky at LSU	+24.5	52.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-1.5	56.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Tue 12/23	Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Missouri State at USC	+34.5	59.5	L 13 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+7.0	53.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5	60.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri State vs UT Martin	-14.0	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+3.5	59.5	L 22 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	52.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	-3.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+7.5	51.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	-6.5	47.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+6.5	54.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-2.5	45.0	L 30 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/18	Missouri State vs Arkansas State	+1.5	55.5	L 28 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#74 (.17)	43% (58)	29.5	45% (52)	2.97 (62)	123	42% (64)	252	4.21 (30)	#42 (.11)	37% (19)	22.8	39% (26)	36% (18)	2.72 (11)	55.6	1.4	1
MOST	#67 (.18)	39% (105)	25.6	37% (124)	2.49 (131)	114	42% (60)	280	3.69 (69)	#113 (.23)	43% (84)	28.8	43% (72)	43% (90)	3.89 (92)	66.5	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)		38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)		48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	13	29.5	24.5	43.2%	4.21	1.4	20	374	123	252	4.2	42%	57%	45%	42%	15%	.17
MOST Defense	13	28.8	25.3	42.7%	3.89	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	43%	15%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	13	22.8	28	37%	2.72	1	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	39%	36%	16%	.11
MOST Offense	13	25.6	28.3	39.3%	3.69	1.4	20	393	114	280	3.6	42%	56%	37%	42%	24%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	13	27:10	20	45%	33%	5.6	55.6	1.4	1	4.9	1.2	2	28.2
Missouri State	13	31:20	20.5	36%	57%	7.6	66.5	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.8	0	29.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	13	42% (125)	45% (52)	29.2	122.7	4.2	20 (78)	.09 (81)	2.97 (62)	81% (12)	9% (49)	0.92 (84)
MOST Defense	13	48% (47)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.16 (102)	2.76 (48)	83% (129)	8% (119)	1.03 (102)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	13	46% (22)	39% (26)	-	-	-	-	.09 (61)	2.79 (52)	55% (3)	9% (94)	1.13 (130)
MOST Offense	13	42% (124)	37% (124)	31.7	113.7	3.6	12 (122)	.03 (113)	2.49 (131)	61% (126)	16% (135)	1.07 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	13	57% (12)	42% (64)	23.3	35	251.6	7.2	10.8	21 (42)	11 (60)	.24 (72)	1.5 (89)	33% (100)	34% (24)	.36 (45)	6% (89)	1.9 (104)
MOST Defense	13	50% (86)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.33 (108)	1.6 (71)	30% (90)	27% (33)	.33 (87)	7% (20)	2.3 (130)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	13	52% (109)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.16 (33)	1.5 (62)	34% (32)	27% (31)	.23 (43)	7% (17)	2 (69)
MOST Offense	13	56% (17)	42% (60)	21.3	33.5	279.7	8.4	13.1	30 (75)	11 (88)	.33 (40)	1.8 (8)	36% (128)	30% (77)	.26 (85)	8% (130)	2.2 (13)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.54 #57
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.30 #77
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 3.76 #39
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #60
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #80

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 3.54 Missouri State: -8.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 0.4 Missouri State: -8.6

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -8.07 #121
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95 #87
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 18.49 #127
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6 #99
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #80
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 33
Missouri State 23

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Missouri State 29
Western Kentucky 24

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Western Kentucky 27
Missouri State 26

Total Points: 53

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Missouri State	22	Western Kentucky	27	Western Kentucky -3.5	Western Kentucky	59.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri State	0	0	0 Overs
Western Kentucky	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#57) WKU at (#121) MOST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	MOST
Power RatePwr	#57	#121
SP+SP+	#70	#99
Perf GradeGrade	#55	#92
OffenseOff	#64	#65
DefenseDef	#54	#100
Spec TeamsST	#28	#133
TalentTal	#89	#131
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#38

Western Kentucky Notes(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Missouri State Notes(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MOST Def
Perf GradePerf	#64	#100
SuccessSuc	#58	#84
ExplosiveExp	#70	#102
PPAPPA	#74	#113
PowerPwr	#77	#127
SP+SP+	#60	#108
Pts POPPO	#30	#92
HavocHav	#61	#82

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	#74	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#72
Run ExplRExp	#84	#102
PPAExp	#81	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#61
TackleTak	-	#105

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#64	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#89	#71
PPAExp	#72	#108
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#66
F7 HavocF7	#49	#119
DB HavocDB	#89	#20

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	WKU Def
Perf GradePerf	#65	#54
SuccessSuc	#105	#19
ExplosiveExp	#1	#116
PPAPPA	#67	#42
PowerPwr	#87	#39
SP+SP+	#80	#80
Pts POPPO	#69	#11
HavocHav	#136	#58

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#107	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#26
Run ExplRExp	#29	#130
PPAExp	#113	#61
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#135	#31
TackleTak	-	#118

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#62
PPAExp	#40	#33
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#32	#70
F7 HavocF7	#135	#94
DB HavocDB	#130	#17

Program Comparison
MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 79°

Rematch from Week 5
Western Kentucky 3.5 (59.5)
Western Kentucky won at Missouri State this year (27-22)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

WKU's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)	183	273	67%	2062	12	6	7.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	139	212	66%	1432	9	7	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvis Parrish	106	576	1	5.4	66
La'Vell Wright (Tr)	85	471	10	5.5	39
George Hart III	70	300	5	4.3	36
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	52	108	2	2.1	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)	55	888	6	16.1	55
K.D. Hutchinson	66	618	3	9.4	78
Moussa Barry	34	488	1	14.4	48
Noah Meyers	32	357	3	11.2	62

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC DaVon Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)	106	7	2	3	2
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	0	5
Anthony Brackenridge	74	5	1	2	3
Dave Herard	58	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)	20	4	3	0	0
Koron Hayward	19	4	3	2	1
Jalen Emery (Tr)	18	3	2	1	3
Harper Holloman	39	6	2	6	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nazir Ward	35	3	1	6
Jai Eugene Jr.	21	2	1	5
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	5

MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	247	376	66%	3244	28	11	8.6
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	199	1021	7	5.1	70
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Ronnel Johnson	1	38	0	38.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alred Luke	43	640	5	14.9	59
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Tristian Gardner	30	465	6	15.5	42
Ronnel Johnson	35	463	2	13.2	35

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kanye Young	77	6	1	5	4
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)	30	6	4	5	2
Caleb Dietlin	19	3	3	6	2
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	21	1	0	11
Maguire Neal	63	1	0	5
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5