Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Missouri State Bears
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Plaster Sports Complex - Springfield, MO
Hilltoppers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 39 - 25 (21 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 39 - 25 (21 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
MOST 3rd straight Home Game
MOST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -12 (SP+ WKU -18.5)
Projected Score: WKU: 34 - MOST: 22 (56)
WKU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
WKU Travel: 376 miles
MOST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -12 (SP+ WKU -18.5)
Projected Score: WKU: 34 - MOST: 22 (56)
WKU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
WKU Travel: 376 miles
Bears (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 15 - 40 (10 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 7.7 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 15 - 40 (10 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 7.7 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
| Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/23 | Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston | -9.5 | 60.5 | W 41 - 24 | O | Y | |
| Sat 8/30 | Western Kentucky vs North Alabama | -27.5 | 60.5 | W 55 - 6 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/6 | Western Kentucky at Toledo | +8.5 | 57.5 | L 21 - 45 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Western Kentucky vs Nevada | -10.5 | 54.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | Western Kentucky at Missouri State | -12 | |||||
| Fri 10/3 | Western Kentucky at Delaware | -2 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Western Kentucky vs Florida International | -6.5 | |||||
| Tue 10/21 | Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech | -1 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -13 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee | -20.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | Western Kentucky at LSU | +29.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | -7 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| Missouri State's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Missouri State at USC | +34.5 | 59.5 | L 13 - 73 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | Missouri State at Marshall | +7.0 | 53.5 | W 21 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | Missouri State vs SMU | +29.5 | 60.5 | L 10 - 28 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | Missouri State vs UT Martin | -5.5 | |||||
| Sat 9/27 | Missouri State vs Western Kentucky | +12 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Wed 10/8 | Missouri State at Middle Tennessee | -1.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Wed 10/22 | Missouri State at New Mexico State | +6.5 | |||||
| Wed 10/29 | Missouri State vs Florida International | +8 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | Missouri State at Liberty | +18.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | Missouri State vs UTEP | +8.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | Missouri State at Kennesaw State | +1.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech | +8.5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | #80 (.16) | 42% (83) | 39 | 37% (112) | 2.71 (96) | 110 | 45% (59) | 358 | 5 (32) | #91 (.18) | 35% (37) | 25 | 39% (67) | 32% (30) | 3.08 (53) | 64 | 1.3 | 1 |
| MOST | #76 (.19) | 36% (121) | 14.7 | 31% (129) | 2.01 (130) | 68 | 40% (92) | 274 | 1.63 (131) | #133 (.43) | 47% (113) | 40.3 | 44% (97) | 49% (117) | 5 (121) | 75 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | #66 (.19) | 42% (83) | 38% (117) | 2.78 (108) | 110 | 45% (33) | 265 | 3.83 (78) | #95 (.21) | 45% (102) | 48% (113) | 40% (60) | 3.66 (54) | 41.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | ||
| MOST | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU Offense | 3 | 39 | 21 | 42.1% | 5 | 1.3 | 23 | 468 | 110 | 358 | 3.5 | 34% | 66% | 37% | 45% | 12% | .16 |
| MOST Defense | 3 | 40.3 | 28 | 46.5% | 5 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 52% | 45% | 44% | 49% | 13% | .43 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU Defense | 3 | 25 | 45 | 35.2% | 3.08 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 51% | 49% | 39% | 32% | 17% | .18 |
| MOST Offense | 3 | 14.7 | 10 | 35.7% | 1.63 | 2.3 | 16 | 342 | 68 | 274 | 2.2 | 46% | 54% | 31% | 40% | 26% | .19 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | 3 | 29:54 | 23.3 | 49% | 20% | 6 | 64 | 1.3 | 1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0 | 29.5 |
| Missouri State | 3 | 32:51 | 16 | 24% | 67% | 7 | 75 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0 | 29.8 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU Offense | 3 | 34% (136) | 37% (112) | 31.7 | 109.7 | 3.5 | 4 (79) | -.16 (131) | 2.71 (96) | 60% (103) | 7% (44) | 0.8 (107) |
| MOST Defense | 3 | 52% (93) | 44% (97) | - | - | - | - | .21 (110) | 3.24 (115) | 50% (19) | 7% (110) | 0.92 (67) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU Defense | 3 | 51% (77) | 39% (67) | - | - | - | - | .19 (108) | 3.03 (94) | 71% (72) | 10% (76) | 1.27 (121) |
| MOST Offense | 3 | 46% (96) | 31% (129) | 31.3 | 68 | 2.2 | 0 (135) | -.09 (129) | 2.01 (130) | 60% (103) | 20% (136) | 1.21 (28) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU Offense | 3 | 66% (1) | 45% (59) | 29 | 43 | 358 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 11 (5) | 1 (23) | .32 (63) | 1.7 (28) | 34% (105) | 37% (35) | .1 (117) | 5% (63) | 1.7 (108) |
| MOST Defense | 3 | 45% (37) | 49% (117) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 (56) | .67 (133) | 1.9 (123) | 29% (108) | 32% (86) | .66 (128) | 6% (62) | 2.8 (132) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU Defense | 3 | 49% (58) | 32% (30) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 (56) | .19 (61) | 1.6 (77) | 37% (28) | 15% (12) | -.01 (20) | 7% (44) | 1.8 (51) |
| MOST Offense | 3 | 54% (42) | 40% (92) | 21.7 | 32.7 | 274 | 8.4 | 12.7 | 5 (54) | 6 (132) | .44 (36) | 2.2 (3) | 41% (132) | 35% (50) | .4 (55) | 6% (86) | 2.3 (28) |
Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -5.06 #91
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.41 #91
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 12.47 #93
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #77
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #84
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #81
Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -5.06 #91
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.41 #91
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 12.47 #93
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #77
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #84
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #81
Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -5.06 Missouri State: -15.615
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.5 Missouri State: -21.2
Western Kentucky: -5.06 Missouri State: -15.615
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.5 Missouri State: -21.2
Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -15.615 #116
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 4.83 #106
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 19.86 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #129
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #106
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #135
Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Missouri State's Power Rating: -15.615 #116
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 4.83 #106
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 19.86 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #129
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #106
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #135
Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 39 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 45
Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Offense: 39 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 45
Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 34
Missouri State 22
Total Points: 56
Western Kentucky 34
Missouri State 22
Total Points: 56
Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 10
Defense: 40.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 28
Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 10
Defense: 40.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 28
Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | 0 | 0 | 0 Overs |
| Western Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 |
| Road Teams | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 |
(#91) Western Kentucky Info
Power Rating: -5.06 #91
Offense Rating: 7.41 #91
Defense Rating: 12.47 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #81
Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 66%, Run: 34%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.08 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Western Kentucky has lost 2 straight
Western Kentucky has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Western Kentucky Notes
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
(7/11) Portal hits big, 2 starters back. 46 portals signed
(7/11) QB McIvor (3k yds/30 TD) combo w/ OC McIvor
(5/2) WR Henry (FCS W Ill) 1,179 yds, 6 TD LY
(3/22) Def avg CUSA, but must rebuild most
(3/22) Almost 60% new roster, new OC/DC.
(3/22) New OC Bowie (Alb. Chr.) brought QB McIvor
Western Kentucky Highlights
Western Kentucky offense is explosive (#19)
Western Kentucky offense is good on 3rd downs
Western Kentucky has a good pass defense (#30)
Western Kentucky Deficiencies
Western Kentucky Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Western Kentucky Can Not Run the Ball (#117)
Western Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#114)
Western Kentucky run game is really bad (#112)
Western Kentucky gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#105)
Power Rating: -5.06 #91
Offense Rating: 7.41 #91
Defense Rating: 12.47 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #81
Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 66%, Run: 34%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.08 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Western Kentucky has lost 2 straight
Western Kentucky has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Western Kentucky Notes
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
(7/11) Portal hits big, 2 starters back. 46 portals signed
(7/11) QB McIvor (3k yds/30 TD) combo w/ OC McIvor
(5/2) WR Henry (FCS W Ill) 1,179 yds, 6 TD LY
(3/22) Def avg CUSA, but must rebuild most
(3/22) Almost 60% new roster, new OC/DC.
(3/22) New OC Bowie (Alb. Chr.) brought QB McIvor
Western Kentucky Highlights
Western Kentucky offense is explosive (#19)
Western Kentucky offense is good on 3rd downs
Western Kentucky has a good pass defense (#30)
Western Kentucky Deficiencies
Western Kentucky Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Western Kentucky Can Not Run the Ball (#117)
Western Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#114)
Western Kentucky run game is really bad (#112)
Western Kentucky gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#105)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | MOST | WKU |
| OverallOver | #103 | #47 |
| OffenseOff | #102 | #60 |
| DefenseDef | #89 | #67 |
| Special TeamsST | #102 | #4 |
| PassingPass | #70 | #44 |
| RushingRush | #104 | #64 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #116 | #109 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #80 | #73 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #63 | #23 |
| TacklingTkl | #113 | #94 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #73 | #91 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #106 | #22 |
| Coverage DefCov | #75 | #57 |
(#116) Missouri State Info
Power Rating: -15.615 #116
Offense Rating: 4.83 #106
Defense Rating: 19.86 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #129
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #135
Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.63 PPO
Awful Run Success 31%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Missouri State has lost 2 straight
Missouri State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)
Missouri State Notes
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
(3/26) Def limited, lots of shootouts LY. Some exp
(3/26) HC Beard in his 3rd, improved to 8-4 LY.
(3/26) Passing offense was 2nd in FCS 39 PPG LY
(3/26) Bears were a middling FCS program, why FBS?
Missouri State Highlights
Missouri State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Missouri State is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs
Missouri State offense is explosive (#2)
Missouri State Deficiencies
Missouri State has a really bad Offense
Missouri State has a really bad Offense at Home
Missouri State has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Missouri State Can Not Run the Ball (#132)
Missouri State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Missouri State offense is really bad (#121)
Missouri State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#135)
Missouri State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#131)
Missouri State run game is really bad (#129)
Missouri State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Missouri State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Missouri State has a bad defense (#113)
Missouri State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#112)
Missouri State Does Not Stuff Runs (#123)
Missouri State has a bad defensive line (#115)
Missouri State has a bad red zone defense (#121)
Power Rating: -15.615 #116
Offense Rating: 4.83 #106
Defense Rating: 19.86 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.2 #129
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #135
Talent Rating: 310.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.63 PPO
Awful Run Success 31%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Missouri State has lost 2 straight
Missouri State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)
Missouri State Notes
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
(3/26) Def limited, lots of shootouts LY. Some exp
(3/26) HC Beard in his 3rd, improved to 8-4 LY.
(3/26) Passing offense was 2nd in FCS 39 PPG LY
(3/26) Bears were a middling FCS program, why FBS?
Missouri State Highlights
Missouri State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Missouri State is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs
Missouri State offense is explosive (#2)
Missouri State Deficiencies
Missouri State has a really bad Offense
Missouri State has a really bad Offense at Home
Missouri State has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Missouri State Can Not Run the Ball (#132)
Missouri State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Missouri State offense is really bad (#121)
Missouri State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#135)
Missouri State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#131)
Missouri State run game is really bad (#129)
Missouri State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Missouri State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Missouri State has a bad defense (#113)
Missouri State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#112)
Missouri State Does Not Stuff Runs (#123)
Missouri State has a bad defensive line (#115)
Missouri State has a bad red zone defense (#121)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick McIvor (Tr) | 80 | 120 | 67% | 941 | 10 | 1 | 7.8 |
| Rodney Tisdale Jr. | 6 | 8 | 75% | 94 | 1 | 0 | 11.8 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvis Parrish | 23 | 93 | 0 | 4.0 | 22 |
| Jaden McGill (Tr) | 16 | 63 | 1 | 3.9 | 15 |
| George Hart III | 17 | 59 | 1 | 3.5 | 12 |
| La'Vell Wright (Tr) | 11 | 39 | 1 | 3.5 | 12 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Barry | 11 | 210 | 0 | 19.1 | 48 |
| Matthew Henry (Tr) | 11 | 198 | 3 | 18.0 | 55 |
| K.D. Hutchinson | 12 | 184 | 3 | 15.3 | 78 |
| Marvis Parrish | 14 | 100 | 1 | 7.1 | 22 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Herard | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Lewis (Tr) | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wester (Tr) | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Flowers | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Holloman | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Dominic Oliver (Tr) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden Gray (Tr) | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaden Hardy (Tr) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Holloman | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Al-Ma'Hi Ali (Tr) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Lataj Wright | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Clark | 60 | 92 | 65% | 781 | 5 | 6 | 8.5 |
| Cole Feuerbacher | 4 | 4 | 100% | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shomari Lawrence (Tr) | 42 | 143 | 0 | 3.4 | 23 |
| Ramone Green Jr. | 10 | 34 | 0 | 3.4 | 12 |
| Jmariyae Robinson | 1 | 21 | 0 | 21.0 | 21 |
| Reggie Branch | 4 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 | 9 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramone Green Jr. | 9 | 164 | 1 | 18.2 | 57 |
| Jmariyae Robinson | 9 | 164 | 1 | 18.2 | 52 |
| Alred Luke | 10 | 129 | 1 | 12.9 | 27 |
| Tristian Gardner | 7 | 104 | 1 | 14.9 | 33 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maguire Neal | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Anderson | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Ford (Tr) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Lloyd | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Toney | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Caleb Dietlin | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Lloyd | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Maguire Neal | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dunbar (Tr) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Davon Townley Jr. | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Toney | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |