Western Kentucky at Missouri State Game Matchup

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Missouri State Bears

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Plaster Sports Complex - Springfield, MO

Hilltoppers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

MOST coming off BYE
Our Line: Western Kentucky -4 (SP+ WKU -12)
Projected Score: WKU: 35 - MOST: 31 (63)
WKU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 376 miles

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 34 - 42 (34 - 42 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 7.3 (#124)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
MOST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/22	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-7.5	0.0
Fri 8/29	Western Kentucky vs North Alabama	-11.5
Sat 9/6	Western Kentucky at Toledo	+13
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Western Kentucky vs Nevada	-8
Sat 9/27	Western Kentucky at Missouri State	-4
Fri 10/3	Western Kentucky at Delaware	-2.5
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Western Kentucky vs Florida International	-5.5
Tue 10/21	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-2
Sat 11/1	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-9.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-8.5
Sat 11/22	Western Kentucky at LSU	+40
Sat 11/29	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Missouri State at USC	+32.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	Missouri State at Marshall	+3.5
Sat 9/13	Missouri State vs SMU	+29.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Missouri State vs Western Kentucky	+4
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Missouri State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Missouri State at New Mexico State	+2
Wed 10/29	Missouri State vs Florida International	+1
Sat 11/8	Missouri State at Liberty	+21
Sat 11/15	Missouri State vs UTEP	+2
Sat 11/22	Missouri State at Kennesaw State	+0
Sat 11/29	Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech	-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	24.9	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	24.6	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
MOST		0%	34	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	42	0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	24.9	24.9	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19
MOST Defense	1	42	42	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	24.6	33.9	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21
MOST Offense	1	34	34	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7
Missouri State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)
MOST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)
MOST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -17.79 #116
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 5.91 #119
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 23.70 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.8 #85
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #68

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -17.79 Missouri State: -15.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -5.8 Missouri State: -17.6

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -15.87 #120
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 12.14 #80
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 31.28 #136
2025 Talent Rating: 220.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #37
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 7.3
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.6 #127
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #75
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #136

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.9
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.9

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 35
Missouri State 31

Projected Total Points: 63

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense at Home: 42

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri State	0	0	0 Overs
Western Kentucky	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#116) Western Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -17.79 #116
Offense Rating: 5.91 #119
Defense Rating: 23.70 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #68
Talent Rating: 504.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Western Kentucky Notes
(5/2) WR Henry (FCS W Ill) 1,179 yds, 6 TD LY
(3/22) Def avg CUSA, but must rebuild most
(3/22) Def portals 7 DL, 1 LB, 5 DBs.
(3/22) Almost 60% new roster, new OC/DC.
(3/22) New OC Bowie (Alb. Chr.) brought QB McIvor
(3/22) QB McIvor (3k yds/30 TD) a big find for '25
(3/22) RB rebuild. Hart has exp, Hampton some
(3/22) WR complete rebuild. Took 5 portals + 2 TEs
(3/22) OL rebuild. 5 portal adds. Very ?

Western Kentucky Ratings Matchup Missouri State

Power #116

#120

Off #119

#80

Def #114

#136

Talent #105

#132

SP+ #85

#127

SP+ Off #102

#75

SP+ Def #68

#136

Weather Forecast
Playing in Plaster Sports Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: WKU | MOST
Depth Chart: WKU | MOST
Rosters: WKU | MOST

(#120) Missouri State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -15.87 #120
Offense Rating: 12.14 #80
Defense Rating: 31.28 #136
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.6 #127
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.8 #136
Talent Rating: 220.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #37
Expected Record: 3.7 - 7.3

Team Profile

,
,

Missouri State Notes
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
(3/26) WR/TE some exp, TE Mason good. 1 portal
(3/26) OL no clue, looks really weak, no portals
(3/26) Def limited, lots of shootouts LY. Some exp
(3/26) HC Beard in his 3rd, improved to 8-4 LY.
(3/26) Passing offense was 2nd in FCS 39 PPG LY
(3/26) Bears were a middling FCS program, why FBS?

Western Kentucky's OC Rick Bowie

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)	312	496	63%	3847	30	7	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
George Hart III	44	204	2	4.6	30
Jalen Hampton	11	57	0	5.2	14
K.D. Hutchinson	8	51	0	6.4	42
John Cannon (Tr)	1	17	0	17.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jairus Mack (Tr)	19	418	0	22.0	59
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74
Isaiah Myers (Tr)	13	237	3	18.2	37
Noah Meyers	7	123	1	17.6	24

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

Western Kentucky's DC DaVon Brown

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	43	2	0	5
Demarko Williams	37	2	0	1
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	4
Braxton Myers (Tr)	31	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	0	4
Jayden Gray (Tr)	14	3	2	1	1
Dominic Oliver (Tr)	15	2	1	1	0
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	43	2	0	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	43	2	0	5
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	4
Braxton Myers (Tr)	31	2	0	2

Missouri State's OC Nick Petrino

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Clark	257	369	70%	3548	26	6	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)	47	177	1	3.8	15
Iverson Young	8	59	0	7.4	28
Jmariyae Robinson	8	47	3	5.9	23
Reggie Branch	6	18	0	3.0	10

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jmariyae Robinson	38	585	4	15.4	44
James BlackStrain	23	353	3	15.3	37
Alred Luke	14	194	2	13.9	32
Gary Clinton	6	52	0	8.7	13

View Missouri State's Full Roster

Missouri State's DC L.D. Scott

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Todric McGee	16	1	0	0
Kanye Young	5	3	2	0
Dylan Simmons	3	1	0	2
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kanye Young	5	3	2	0
Todric McGee	16	1	0	0
Dylan Simmons	3	1	0	2
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	3	0	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Dylan Simmons	3	1	2
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)	3	0	1
Ryan Williams	2	0	1