Bowling Green at Ball State Game Matchup
Bowling Green logo Bowling Green Falcons at Ball State CardinalsBall State logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (2:00 PM EST)
Bowling Green -12.5 (54.5) (-455)  Open: -10.0
Bowling Green 38 - Ball State: 13  (Mid-American)

 
Falcons (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Bowling Green -16.5   (SP+ BGSU -18)
Projected Score: BGSU: 36 - BALL: 20 (58)
BGSU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
BGSU Travel: 123 miles
Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (29 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Bowling Green vs Fordham-15.560.5W 41 - 17UY
Sat 9/7 Bowling Green at Penn State+35.551.5L 27 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Bowling Green at Texas A&M+21.050.5L 20 - 26UY
Sat 9/28 Bowling Green vs Old Dominion-11.051.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 10/5 Bowling Green at Akron-17.048.5W 27 - 20UN
Sat 10/12 Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois-3.046.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 10/19 Bowling Green vs Kent State-24.054.5W 27 - 6UN
Sat 10/26 Bowling Green at Toledo+1.547.5W 41 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Bowling Green at Central Michigan-14.547.5W 23 - 13UN
Tue 11/12 Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-9.557.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 11/23 Bowling Green at Ball State-12.554.5W 38 - 13UY
Fri 11/29 Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)-3.037.5L 12 - 28ON
Thu 12/26 Bowling Green vs Arkansas State-10.554.5L 31 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7 Ball State vs Missouri State-2.550.5W 42 - 34OY
Sat 9/14 Ball State at Miami+36.555.5L 0 - 62ON
Sat 9/21 Ball State at Central Michigan+6.551.0L 34 - 37OY
Sat 9/28 Ball State at James Madison+22.056.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 10/5 Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.057.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/12 Ball State at Kent State-3.058.0W 37 - 35ON
Sat 10/19 Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.557.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.547.5W 25 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.548.5L 21 - 27UY
Tue 11/12 Ball State at Buffalo+3.555.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 11/23 Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.554.5L 13 - 38UN
Fri 11/29 Ball State at Ohio+17.551.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU#74 (.18)41% (81)27.145% (46)3.06 (81)13739% (98)1893.65 (87)#44 (.15)42% (63)21.648% (119)36% (11)3.71 (62)60.91.52.2
BALL#97 (.14)40% (95)25.345% (50)3.35 (22)17133% (127)1373.31 (105)#70 (.18)42% (66)40.143% (65)42% (70)3.81 (70)45.21.30.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Offense1327.129.341.2%3.651.5173261371894.248%50%45%39%18%.18
BALL Defense1240.133.441.8%3.810.9 - - - - - 48%51%43%42%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Defense1321.62241.6%3.712.2 - - - - - 54%44%48%36%17%.15
BALL Offense1225.328.639.8%3.311.3183081711374.458%41%45%33%17%.14

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Bowling Green1330:3016.833%60%6.960.91.52.24.92.5333.8
Ball State1232:4418.138%56%5.245.21.30.95.72.1028.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense1348% (82)45% (46)33137.44.222 (51).16 (65)3.06 (81)80% (18)13% (121)1.09 (24)
BALL Defense1248% (44)43% (65) - - - - .11 (45)3.08 (62)79% (102)11% (35)0.89 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense1354% (112)48% (119) - - - - .22 (108)3.28 (105)80% (110)10% (67)0.95 (41)
BALL Offense1258% (14)45% (50)39.3171.44.415 (100).21 (38)3.35 (22)83% (8)12% (112)0.99 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense1350% (60)39% (98)16.527.5188.86.911.517 (85)14 (107).27 (72)1.7 (35)36% (127)31% (67).29 (82)6% (54)2 (82)
BALL Defense1251% (93)42% (70) - - - - - - 5 (126).27 (70)1.5 (29)32% (61)28% (30).21 (20)5% (97)2 (39)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense1344% (17)36% (11) - - - - - - 17 (3).21 (35)1.7 (111)33% (46)28% (38).32 (71)7% (21)2.1 (72)
BALL Offense1241% (119)33% (127)15.125.3136.75.49.19 (126)8 (30).05 (128)1.4 (130)33% (92)24% (123).18 (110)5% (25)2 (104)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 478.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -2.77   Ball State: -18.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -1.8   Ball State: -19.8




Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.3
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Bowling Green 36
Ball State 20


Projected Total Points: 58
Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Ball State13Bowling Green38Bowling GreenBowling Green -12.5Bowling Green54.5Under
202311/01Bowling Green24Ball State21Bowling GreenBowling Green -4.5Ball State39.5Over
201511/24Ball State10Bowling Green48Bowling GreenBowling Green -20.5Bowling Green74.0Under
201411/28Bowling Green24Ball State41Ball StateBowling Green -9Ball State0
200910/17Ball State17Bowling Green31Bowling Green
200509/10Ball State31Bowling Green40Bowling Green
200410/16Bowling Green51Ball State13Bowling Green
200311/22Ball State14Bowling Green41Bowling Green
200210/26Bowling Green38Ball State20Bowling Green
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ball State121 Overs
Bowling Green822 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 60 - 40 - 20 - 2
Road Teams6 - 34 - 02 - 02 - 0

(#73) Bowling Green Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75
Talent Rating: 478.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 37%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Bowling Green Notes
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
Bowling Green     Ratings Matchup     Ball State
Power #73
#126
Off #56
#93
Def #46
#132
Talent #106
#92
SP+ #77
#126
SP+ Off #79
#103
SP+ Def #75
#133

Rematch from Week 13
Bowling Green 12.5 (54.5)
Bowling Green won at Ball State this year (38-13)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Ball State last year (38-13)
Bowling Green beat Ball State in 2023 (24-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 41° - Wind: 11 mph


Team Information
Injuries: BGSU | BALL
Depth Chart: BGSU | BALL
Rosters: BGSU | BALL
(#126) Ball State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Ball State Notes
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs


  
Bowling Green's OC Greg Nosal
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Lucian Anderson III51242%32112.7
Baron May11100%431043.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terion Stewart16689865.473
Rahkeem Smith2012836.440
Lucian Anderson III196723.519
Justin Pegues (Tr)135103.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malcolm Johnson Jr. (Tr)49573311.750
Rahkeem Smith25349314.066
Finn Hogan17175010.333
Justin Pegues (Tr)114404.07

View Bowling Green's Full Roster
Bowling Green's DC Sammy Lawanson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Sipp Jr.7912712
CJ Brown (Tr)732012
Tracy Revels400021
Darius McClendon (Tr)312200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Sipp Jr.7912712
Darius McClendon (Tr)312200
Myles Bradley223220
Todd Bumphis (Tr)81103
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Corey Benjamin261005
Todd Bumphis (Tr)81103
Joseph Sipp Jr.7912712

Ball State's OC Jared Elliott
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kadin Semonza27542764%290025106.8
Aidan Leffler2633%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)15059744.040
Vaughn Pemberton6127624.541
Cam Pickett17170210.034
TJ Horton2310704.717
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tanner Koziol9483988.933
Cam Pickett49528210.865
Justin Bowick (Tr)20383319.257
Braedon Sloan (Tr)29329111.372

View Ball State's Full Roster
Ball State's DC Jeff Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
George Udo (Tr)782111
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Joey Stemler566260
D.D. Snyder552001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Sam Feeney73300
Darin Conley163220
Joey Stemler566260
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Norwood (Tr)382005
Thailand Baldwin233003
Scott Hudson31102