Bowling Green at Ball State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Bowling Green Falcons at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (2:00 PM EST)
Bowling Green -12.5 (54.5) (-455) Open: -10.0
Bowling Green 38 - Ball State: 13 (Mid-American)

Falcons (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Bowling Green -16.5 (SP+ BGSU -18)
Projected Score: BGSU: 34 - BALL: 17 (51)
BGSU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
BGSU Travel: 123 miles

Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Bowling Green vs Fordham	-15.5	60.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Bowling Green at Penn State	+35.5	51.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Bowling Green at Texas A&M	+21.0	50.5	L 20 - 26	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Bowling Green vs Old Dominion	-11.0	51.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/5	Bowling Green at Akron	-17.0	48.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/12	Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois	-3.0	46.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/19	Bowling Green vs Kent State	-24.0	54.5	W 27 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/26	Bowling Green at Toledo	+1.5	47.5	W 41 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Bowling Green at Central Michigan	-14.5	47.5	W 23 - 13	U	N
Tue 11/12	Bowling Green vs Western Michigan	-9.5	57.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Bowling Green at Ball State	-12.5	54.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	-3.0	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Thu 12/26	Bowling Green vs Arkansas State	-10.5	54.5	L 31 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Ball State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Ball State vs Missouri State	-2.5	50.5	W 42 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Ball State at Miami	+36.5	55.5	L 0 - 62	O	N
Sat 9/21	Ball State at Central Michigan	+6.5	51.0	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Ball State at James Madison	+22.0	56.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/5	Ball State vs Western Michigan	+10.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Ball State at Kent State	-3.0	58.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ball State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	57.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Ball State vs Northern Illinois	+13.5	47.5	W 25 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+12.5	48.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Ball State at Buffalo	+3.5	55.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Ball State vs Bowling Green	+12.5	54.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ball State at Ohio	+17.5	51.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	20.5	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24.3	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2
BALL	#97 (.14)	40% (95)	15.8	45% (50)	3.35 (22)	171	33% (127)	137	3.31 (105)	#70 (.18)	42% (66)	29.8	43% (65)	42% (70)	3.81 (70)	45.2	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	13	20.5	24	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18
BALL Defense	12	29.8	21.6	41.8%	3.81	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	43%	42%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	13	24.3	29	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15
BALL Offense	12	15.8	24.4	39.8%	3.31	1.3	18	308	171	137	4.4	58%	41%	45%	33%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8
Ball State	12	32:44	18.1	38%	56%	5.2	45.2	1.3	0.9	5.7	2.1	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)
BALL Defense	12	48% (44)	43% (65)	-	-	-	-	.11 (45)	3.08 (62)	79% (102)	11% (35)	0.89 (23)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)
BALL Offense	12	58% (14)	45% (50)	39.3	171.4	4.4	15 (100)	.21 (38)	3.35 (22)	83% (8)	12% (112)	0.99 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)
BALL Defense	12	51% (93)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.27 (70)	1.5 (29)	32% (61)	28% (30)	.21 (20)	5% (97)	2 (39)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)
BALL Offense	12	41% (119)	33% (127)	15.1	25.3	136.7	5.4	9.1	9 (126)	8 (30)	.05 (128)	1.4 (130)	33% (92)	24% (123)	.18 (110)	5% (25)	2 (104)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 230.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -2.77 Ball State: -18.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -1.8 Ball State: -19.8

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -18.945 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 239.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 34
Ball State 17

Projected Total Points: 51

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Ball State	13	Bowling Green	38	Bowling Green -12.5	Bowling Green	54.5	Under
2023	11/01	Bowling Green	24	Ball State	21	Bowling Green -4.5	Ball State	39.5	Over
2015	11/24	Ball State	10	Bowling Green	48	Bowling Green -20.5	Bowling Green	74.0	Under
2014	11/28	Bowling Green	24	Ball State	41	Bowling Green -9	Ball State	0
2009	10/17	Ball State	17	Bowling Green	31
2005	09/10	Ball State	31	Bowling Green	40
2004	10/16	Bowling Green	51	Ball State	13
2003	11/22	Ball State	14	Bowling Green	41
2002	10/26	Bowling Green	38	Ball State	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	1	2	1 Overs
Bowling Green	8	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 6	0 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 3	4 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0

(#73) BGSU at (#126) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	BALL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#73	#126
SP+SP+	#77	#126
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#127
OffenseOff	#46	#93
DefenseDef	#29	#136
Spec TeamsST	#18	#111
TalentTal	#106	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Bowling Green Notes(11/25) Bullied Ball St. Finale vs M OH for MAC title gm
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
(8/6) Will take lumps vs Penn St/Tex A&M early
Bowling Green Injury Report

Ball State Notes(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BALL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#46	#136
SuccessSuc	#81	#66
ExplosiveExp	#25	#16
PPAPPA	#74	#70
PowerPwr	#56	#132
SP+SP+	#79	#133
Pts POPPO	#87	#70
HavocHav	#103	#60

Bowling Green Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#49	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#65
Run ExplRExp	#24	#23
PPAExp	#65	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#99
TackleTak	-	#121

Bowling Green Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#29
PPAExp	#72	#70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#70	#61
F7 HavocF7	#121	#35
DB HavocDB	#54	#97

Ball State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#29
SuccessSuc	#95	#63
ExplosiveExp	#126	#46
PPAPPA	#97	#44
PowerPwr	#93	#46
SP+SP+	#103	#75
Pts POPPO	#105	#62
HavocHav	#85	#41

Ball State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#131	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#119
Run ExplRExp	#70	#41
PPAExp	#38	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#132
TackleTak	-	#37

Ball State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#127	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#111
PPAExp	#128	#35
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#38	#39
F7 HavocF7	#112	#67
DB HavocDB	#25	#21

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Bowling Green 12.5 (54.5)
Bowling Green won at Ball State this year (38-13)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Ball State in 2024 (38-13)
Bowling Green beat Ball State in 2023 (24-21)

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak	269	402	67%	3044	18	5	7.6
Lucian Anderson III	5	12	42%	32	1	1	2.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	166	898	6	5.4	73
Jaison Patterson	99	426	5	4.3	41
Jamal Johnson	26	188	1	7.2	41
Rahkeem Smith	20	128	3	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	117	1550	10	13.2	65
Malcolm Johnson Jr. (Tr)	49	573	3	11.7	50
Rahkeem Smith	25	349	3	14.0	66
Jamal Johnson	31	229	1	7.4	36

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brock Horne	81	6	2	2	1
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
CJ Brown (Tr)	73	2	0	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Ali Saad	40	9	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Oladokun	35	1	0	7
Ja'Corey Benjamin	26	1	0	5
Todd Bumphis (Tr)	8	1	1	3

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kadin Semonza	275	427	64%	2900	25	10	6.8
Aidan Leffler	2	6	33%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	150	597	4	4.0	40
Vaughn Pemberton	61	276	2	4.5	41
Cam Pickett	17	170	2	10.0	34
TJ Horton	23	107	0	4.7	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol	94	839	8	8.9	33
Cam Pickett	49	528	2	10.8	65
Justin Bowick (Tr)	20	383	3	19.2	57
Braedon Sloan (Tr)	29	329	1	11.3	72

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
George Udo (Tr)	78	2	1	1	1
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Joey Stemler	56	6	2	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)	59	9	6	8	1
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4
Sam Feeney	7	3	3	0	0
Darin Conley	16	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Norwood (Tr)	38	2	0	0	5
Keionte Newson	73	4	0	4	4
Brandon Berger	38	10	5	9	4