Western Michigan at Bowling Green - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Michigan Broncos at Bowling Green Falcons

Tuesday, November 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Bowling Green -9.5 (57.5) (-345) Open: -7.0
Bowling Green 31 - Western Michigan: 13 (Mid-American)

Broncos (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Bowling Green -10.5 (SP+ BGSU -8)
Projected Score: WMU: 19 - BGSU: 30 (49)
BGSU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
WMU Travel: 120 miles

Falcons (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WMU Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Western Michigan at Wisconsin	+24.0	57.0	L 14 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Western Michigan at Ohio State	+37.5	54.5	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/14	Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman	-33.5	54.5	W 59 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Western Michigan at Marshall	+3.5	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/5	Western Michigan at Ball State	-10.0	57.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/12	Western Michigan vs Akron	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Western Michigan at Buffalo	-1.0	49.5	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Western Michigan vs Kent State	-19.0	61.0	W 52 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+2.5	51.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Tue 11/12	Western Michigan at Bowling Green	+9.5	57.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Tue 11/19	Western Michigan at Central Michigan	-6.0	56.0	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/30	Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	56.5	W 26 - 18	U	Y
Sat 12/14	Western Michigan vs South Alabama	+6.0	53.5	L 23 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Bowling Green vs Fordham	-15.5	60.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Bowling Green at Penn State	+35.5	51.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Bowling Green at Texas A&M	+21.0	50.5	L 20 - 26	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Bowling Green vs Old Dominion	-11.0	51.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/5	Bowling Green at Akron	-17.0	48.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/12	Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois	-3.0	46.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/19	Bowling Green vs Kent State	-24.0	54.5	W 27 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/26	Bowling Green at Toledo	+1.5	47.5	W 41 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Bowling Green at Central Michigan	-14.5	47.5	W 23 - 13	U	N
Tue 11/12	Bowling Green vs Western Michigan	-9.5	57.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Bowling Green at Ball State	-12.5	54.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	-3.0	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Thu 12/26	Bowling Green vs Arkansas State	-10.5	54.5	L 31 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU	#85 (.16)	40% (90)	24.9	41% (87)	3.09 (71)	153	40% (87)	211	3.89 (72)	#92 (.22)	44% (101)	17.4	46% (99)	44% (99)	4.15 (105)	62.3	1.1	1.5
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	20.5	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24.3	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Offense	12	24.9	18.3	40.3%	3.89	1.1	20	365	153	211	3.8	54%	45%	41%	40%	16%	.16
BGSU Defense	13	24.3	19.5	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Defense	12	17.4	21.7	44.3%	4.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	46%	44%	19%	.22
BGSU Offense	13	20.5	17	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Michigan	12	29:55	19.6	36%	49%	7.1	62.3	1.1	1.5	5.2	2	0	28.3
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Offense	12	54% (38)	41% (87)	39.9	153.3	3.8	21 (54)	.15 (73)	3.09 (71)	75% (58)	10% (66)	1 (65)
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Defense	12	50% (74)	46% (99)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.48 (127)	81% (112)	11% (44)	0.95 (40)
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Offense	12	45% (98)	40% (87)	20.6	32.8	211.2	6.5	10.3	13 (111)	9 (40)	.2 (96)	1.5 (105)	30% (29)	25% (113)	.25 (93)	6% (88)	2 (96)
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Defense	12	48% (47)	44% (99)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.33 (104)	1.6 (78)	31% (94)	30% (71)	.23 (29)	9% (7)	1.9 (31)
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -10.37 #103
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 22.99 #41
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 15.82 #113
2024 Talent Rating: 288.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Western Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Western Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #105
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #86
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #120

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -10.37 Bowling Green: 0.215

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -10.2 Bowling Green: -1.8

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: 0.215 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 230.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

Western Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 30
Western Michigan 19

Projected Total Points: 49

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/12	Bowling Green	31	Western Michigan	13	Bowling Green -9.5	Bowling Green	57.5	Under
2023	11/21	Western Michigan	10	Bowling Green	34	Bowling Green -2	Bowling Green	54.5	Under
2022	11/02	Bowling Green	13	Western Michigan	9	Bowling Green -5	Western Michigan	48.0	Under
2019	10/26	Western Michigan	49	Bowling Green	10	Western Michigan -26.5	Western Michigan	65.5	Under
2018	10/13	Bowling Green	35	Western Michigan	42	Western Michigan -14.5	Bowling Green	68.5	Over
2015	11/11	Western Michigan	27	Bowling Green	41	Bowling Green -4.5	Bowling Green	72.0	Under
2014	10/18	Bowling Green	14	Western Michigan	26	Bowling Green -2.5	Western Michigan	0
2011	10/08	Western Michigan	45	Bowling Green	21
2010	11/26	Bowling Green	7	Western Michigan	41
2005	10/22	Bowling Green	14	Western Michigan	45
2004	11/06	Bowling Green	52	Western Michigan	0
2003	10/11	Western Michigan	21	Bowling Green	32
2002	10/19	Bowling Green	48	Western Michigan	45
2001	10/13	Western Michigan	37	Bowling Green	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	7	4	1 Overs
Western Michigan	7	3	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	3 - 4	2 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 7	4 - 3	2 - 1	2 - 2

(#103) WMU at (#73) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WMU	BGSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#103	#73
SP+SP+	#105	#77
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#35
OffenseOff	#7	#46
DefenseDef	#103	#29
Spec TeamsST	#70	#18
TalentTal	#79	#106
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Western Michigan Notes(12/15) Good fight in bowl (S Al), Run Def torched 260+
(11/25) 3 str L's, zero Rgame, QB sucked, Vs EMU 4 bowl
(11/13) QBs/Rgame awful vs BG, Run Def torched in L
(11/7) TO's, stupidity cost vs N Ill. QB Wolff a fraud
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#125) into week 9
(10/20) Off torched Buffalo, Def awful vs both Pass & Run
(10/18) Better than record, sched rough, close losses
(10/13) Rgame good, Pass D torched by Akron. Def 4 TOs
(10/4) Run a lot w/ good success. Def awful so far
(10/4) Let's see how they play now sched lightens up
(8/15) DBs supposed to be near the best in the MAC
(7/30) Lost OC/DCs. Hired OC/DC both fired LY (L Tech/IU)
Western Michigan Injury Report

Bowling Green Notes(11/25) Bullied Ball St. Finale vs M OH for MAC title gm
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
(8/6) Will take lumps vs Penn St/Tex A&M early
Bowling Green Injury Report

Western Michigan on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BGSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#29
SuccessSuc	#90	#63
ExplosiveExp	#104	#46
PPAPPA	#85	#44
PowerPwr	#41	#46
SP+SP+	#86	#75
Pts POPPO	#72	#62
HavocHav	#71	#41

Western Michigan Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#40	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	#87	#119
Run ExplRExp	#65	#41
PPAExp	#73	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#132
TackleTak	-	#37

Western Michigan Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#87	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#105	#111
PPAExp	#96	#35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#19	#39
F7 HavocF7	#66	#67
DB HavocDB	#88	#21

Bowling Green on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	WMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#46	#103
SuccessSuc	#81	#101
ExplosiveExp	#25	#56
PPAPPA	#74	#92
PowerPwr	#56	#113
SP+SP+	#79	#120
Pts POPPO	#87	#105
HavocHav	#103	#13

Bowling Green Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	WMU Def
Run GameRun	#49	#107
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#99
Run ExplRExp	#24	#40
PPAExp	#65	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#101
TackleTak	-	#82

Bowling Green Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	WMU Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#89
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#99
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#78
PPAExp	#72	#104
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#70	#92
F7 HavocF7	#121	#44
DB HavocDB	#54	#7

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

WMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Bowling Green -9.5 (57.5)
Bowling Green won vs Western Michigan this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Western Michigan in 2024 (31-13)
Bowling Green beat Western Michigan in 2023 (34-10)

WMU's OC Walt Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hayden Wolff	191	285	67%	2214	17	7	7.8
Broc Lowry (Tr)	4	8	50%	21	0	0	2.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Nixon	132	874	12	6.6	92
Jalen Buckley	120	657	8	5.5	61
Zahir Abdus-Salaam	104	567	3	5.5	70
Broc Lowry (Tr)	22	123	3	5.6	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenneth Womack	34	456	1	13.4	41
Blake Bosma	37	403	6	10.9	55
Anthony Sambucci	31	376	2	12.1	54
Zahir Abdus-Salaam	28	227	1	8.1	31

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Scott Power (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donald Willis	109	7	1	4	4
Tate Hallock	84	5	0	0	5
Jacob Wahlberg	78	2	1	1	1
Bilhal Kone	70	1	0	2	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Walker	38	7	6	3	5
Mason Nelson	31	9	3	1	1
Isaiah Green	28	3	2	4	0
Donald Willis	109	7	1	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bilhal Kone	70	1	0	2	8
Nyquan Washington	31	3	0	0	5
Corey Walker	38	7	6	3	5

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak	269	402	67%	3044	18	5	7.6
Lucian Anderson III	5	12	42%	32	1	1	2.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	166	898	6	5.4	73
Jaison Patterson	99	426	5	4.3	41
Jamal Johnson	26	188	1	7.2	41
Rahkeem Smith	20	128	3	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	117	1550	10	13.2	65
Malcolm Johnson Jr. (Tr)	49	573	3	11.7	50
Rahkeem Smith	25	349	3	14.0	66
Jamal Johnson	31	229	1	7.4	36

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brock Horne	81	6	2	2	1
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
CJ Brown (Tr)	73	2	0	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Ali Saad	40	9	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Oladokun	35	1	0	7
Ja'Corey Benjamin	26	1	0	5
Todd Bumphis (Tr)	8	1	1	3